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Energy Resources and Technologies

Global Climate Energy Program Energy Workshop Standford University April 27, 2004

Lynn Wright, Biomass Consultant [email protected], 865-376-0037 Formerly with Oak Ridge National Laboratory Outline

• Brief Energy Crop R&D History • Energy Crop Production Technology • Potential Energy Crop Supplies (Analysis Results) • Lessons Learned from Implementation Efforts • Need for all Biomass Resources • Biomass Supply Vision • Lessons from Agriculture • What If? ORNL Managed DOE’s Feedstock Research from 1978 to 2002 ~$100 Million DOE Minnesota Hybrid Poplar Investment Research Cooperative Molecular Farmers Coop Genetics Prairie Lands BioProducts,, Environmental Inc. Studies Tree Economic Research Analysis Coop

Project Poplar Support Molecular Genetics Coop Crop development with ORNL Significant Private Universities and USDA R,D&D Sector Involvement Energy Crop Species Screening, Model Selection

30 > 100 woody species screened Herbaceous 25 25 identified as high potential, Woody 7 selected for development 20 Poplars and adopted commercially 15 10 No. SpeciesNo. 35 herbaceous species screened 5 4 identified as high-potential, Switchgrass selected for 0 development as model

983 1979 1981 1 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 Year By late 80’s woody research focused on 7 species and grass screening had begun Bioenergy Feedstock Experimental and Operational Research Sites in the U.S. Woody crop management requirements were well established by late 1980’s and switchgrass energy crop potential was identified.

Hybrid Poplar Willow coppice Switchgrass Harvested at age 5 to 10 Harvested at age 3 or 4 Harvested annually Switchgrass, is produced in 10 year rotations with annual harvest, using conventional agricultural equipment, add N at ~ 10 kg/dry Mg yield/yr Switchgrass Yield Examples: Actual and Predicted with ALMANAC

SITE Conditions Field ALMANAC Yield (Mg/ha) Yield (Mg/ha) Blacksburg,VA 6 yr avg. 12.3 12.0 Meade,NE 2 yr avg. 13.4 13.8 Beeville,TX 1993 2 cut 11.8 11.7 1994 2 cut 16.7 15.7 1993 1 cut 13.6 13.6 1994 2 cut 18.0 10.2 Tallasee,AL 9 yr avg. 2 cut 10.5 10.6 9 yr avg. 1 cut 10.1 10.2 Switchgrass can significantly improve soil quality and stability, and increase soil carbon in cropland soils, because of high root to top ratio

Soil carbon gain modeled Based on actual field data Garten (ORNL) Poplars are produced for fiber on cropland soils at 3- 4m spacing in 6-10 yr rotations, weed control is critical, currently harvested with forestry equipment

Weed control effects First hardwood linkage map was a poplar hybrid, complete genome now nearly done.

Early 2nd yr poplar growth ATTRIBUTES OF Life History Tree Height (H) Fast-growing perennials Nine native species and numerous hybrid clones

Soil Carbon-Amendment ~ 1.4 dry Mg/ha/yr No Annual Feedstock Cultural Practices fine root turnover Storage Cost ~2.5 dry Mg/ha/yr on agricultural land biomass accumulation below ground No site disturbance for 5-10 years Productivity Potential 10 to 25 dry Mg/ha/yr

ca. 60 ft at age 8 Low Chemical Input Native Range of All Perennial Cover <10kg N/ha/yr North American Populus - Wind Erosion Control (or ~ 75kg/rotation) up to 10H - Water Erosion Control

Removal of Agricultural Wildlife Habitat Chemical from Ground Water - Winter Cover - Early Spring

horizontal roots

oblique root sinker root 5 ft

Root Depth Very rapid tree growth (~15-25 Mg/ha/year) is obtainable where plenty of sunlight, water and space are available Challenge is obtaining similar growth at tight spacings or under poorer growing conditions

Age 6 Hybrid Poplar In Oregon Age 7 Eucalyptus in Brazil Willow is produced on cropland at ½ to 1 m spacings, harvested in 3 years, using special harvest equipment,

Species trials – double spaced rows

Willow ready for harvest Analysis Result Example: Predictions of Potential Energy Crop Production Using 2008 Yield Assumptions

10

8

6 Crop 4 CRP

(millions) Idle

Hectares of land 2 Pasture

0 $33 dMg, Wildlife $44 dMg, Production Farmgate price and Scenario

USDA Demand Sector Model (POLYSYS) modified for analysis. Both scenario’s assume 75% of Conservation Reserve Program Subsidies are available to farmers. Switchgrass predominates as higher profit potential crop for farmers at farmgate. Areas Supporting Predicted Potential Biomass Production are a Function of Price, Production Restrictions, and Subsidies

Scenario 1: $33/dMg (farmgate) with wildlife restrictions and 75% of CRP land subsidy - 77 million dry Mg of switchgrass and poplars

Scenario 2: $44dMg (farmgate) with no restrictions and 75% of CRP land subsidy - 170 million dry Mg of mostly switchgrass Lessons learned from operational scale biomass demonstration projects and systems studies

• Crop productivity is only one aspect of commercial viability • Supply logistics issues often are major barriers – Harvesting requirements – Storage and processing needs – Quality requirements • Many non-technical and institutional barriers exist – Policy barriers – Business/market development barriers – Fossil prices – Farmer profitability potential Biomass Supplies in Context

Slide from Overend (NREL) Potential Available Lignocellulosic Feedstock Quantities (ORNL, 1999)

500

s 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 (million dry tonne) 100 Cumulative Quantitie 50 0 22 (1.4) 33 (2.0) 44 (2.7) 55 (3.4) Delivered cost $/dry Mg ($/GJ)

Urban Wastes Mill Residues Forest Residues Ag Residues Energy

All types of biomass, plus technology advances, are needed to provide significant supplies Billion ton feedstock vision

• 5% of nation’s power, 20% of transport , and 25% of chemicals by 2030 • Combined target is 30% of current petroleum consumption • What are the constraints - Annual production must be sustainable - integrated feedstock supply system (reliability, quality, and consistency) - economic profitability for all in the feedstock supply chain - acceptable life-cycle environmental impact - net positive social impacts

(production and products) Figure 1. Biomass feedstock vision goals. Source: U.S. Department of Energy, Roadmap for Agriculture Biomass Feedstock Supply in the United States, DOE/NE-ID-11129, November 2003. Biomass Flows in the U.S. Economy Materials Fiber pulp paper lumber plywood Process Residues Consumers black liquor MSW clean fraction sawdust yard trimmings constr. & demolition Crops, Animals bark Food wood non-recyclable Process organics Residues stalks & harvest residues Energy dung forest slash Services Biomass heat CHP forest harvest for energy electricity

short rotation woody crops herbaceous energy crops charcoal Bioenergy From Overend (NREL) hydrogen Current land uses, desired products, and environmental preferences limit biomass resource availability Major US Land Catagories 916 million hectares total

202 234 Permanent Pasture Arable & Cropland Forest & Woodland 303 177 All Others

Forest and Woodland Arable and Cropland 303 million hectares 177 million hectares

Corn 31 45 68 Timberland 24 31 Reserved 21 Hay 204 30 Other Crops Other 26 Other Misc

Source: US Forest Service 2002 RPA tables Source: Agriculture Statistics, 2003 Land use changes are linked to technology change The functional relationship between yield and cost of growing trees could be radiradicallycally changed with rapid domestication approach

Rapid domestication approach Current conventional approach

7

1st 10 Generations 7 2nd 10 Generations

Cost ($/ton) 7 7

Yield (ton/ac/yr) Possible cost reduction from woody crop domestication

Typical assumptions Domesticated crop In 2000 concepts • 8’ x 8’ or 10’ x 10’ • 4’ x 8’ or 6’ x 6’ spacing spacing • $0.21 / cutting • $0.12 / cutting • 8-12 Mg / ha / yr • 25-30 Mg / ha / yr • 8-10 year rotation • 5-6 year rotation • $14-20/Mg harvest cost • $8 /Mg harvest cost

$50-60 / Mg $20-$25 / Mg Estimating Future Switchgrass Yields (Mg/ha) 51.6 ALMANAC theoretical

47 Maximum single plant –unwatered nursery

34 Best small plot –single year

15-22 ***Projected field-scale yield in 20 y ***

22 Typical best small plot each year for each of 3 regions in SE/SC

15 Current regional small plot average

9.4 POLYSYS average US at $44/Mg ($53.8 delivered) 11.1 “ “ at $30.3/Mg ($37.3 delivered)

9-22 Current range - - - field-scale Simulated qnnual yield of corn grain and Switchgrass using ALMANAC indicate Switchgrass not as sensitive to land quality as corn.

30 CornSim Source: SWGSim

s Kiniry, Ugarte, 25 McLaughlin, 2004 analysis

20 Switchgrass

15 (Mg/ha/y)

10

5

Simulated Corn and Switchgrass Yield and Switchgrass Simulated Corn Corn Grain

0 0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 7.00 8.00 9.00 10.00 Actual Corn Grain Yields (Mg/ha/y) What if?

• All major crops were harvested for multiple uses (with sufficient residues left on soil for sustainability)? • Protein for animals and for ethanol could be efficiently derived from the same crop (eg. alfalfa and/or switchgrass)? • Average switchgrass yields could be doubled. • Switchgrass were a nitrogen fixer? • Harvest techniques for grasses or alfalfa could efficiently separate leafy parts (protein source) from stems (lignin and cellulose source)? • Poplars could be domesticated and yields doubled or tripled? • Poplars could be more cheaply and quickly harvested? • Grass, tree and grain crops were more drought tolerant? • Conversion technologies were more efficient and capable of using multiple biomass sources to reduce storage problems. Future land uses and product mixes could differ In hypothetical scenario below : Arable and Cropland, current 177 million hectares Human consumption of meat not changed Most crops partitioned for food & energy or Corn fiber and energy. 31 45 Wheat Protein for animal production derived Soybeans 24 mostly from switchgrass and alfalfa Hay 21 Most annual crops grown under no-till conditions 30 Other Crops 26 Other Misc All “other misc” land used for crop production e.g. perennials to preserve conservation values

Currently most corn and wheat stalks are Arable and Cropland, hypothetical left on the ground 177 million hectares

Corn grain and soybeans are major sources of Corn 20 20 Wheat 20 animal protein Soybeans

60 12 Hay (alfalfa) “Other Misc” includes land that is idled or in Other Crops 26 Conservation or Environmental Reserve 19 Grass Crops Programs Wood Crops Managing our lands for energy, food and fiber Acknowledgements & References

• For feedstock research recommendations – especially for agricultural residues, see “Roadmap for Agriculture Biomass Feedstock Supply in the United States” • at www.bioproducts-bioenergy.gov/publications.asp • Information and ideas were derived from many sources – Jerry Tuskan – Oak Ridge National Laboratory – Marie Walsh – formerly ORNL, now University of Tennessee – Robert Perlack – Oak Ridge National Laboratory – Ralph Overend – National Laboratory – Sandy McLaughlin/Daniel Ugarte – University of Tennessee – Jim Kiniry – USDA , Soil and Water Research Lab – Lee Lynd & collaborators (Renewable Biomass Alternative Energy Future Study) – USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service – Trends in U.S. Agriculture – USDA US Forest Service – Forest Facts and Historical Trends