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Feasibility Study on the Cellulosic Ethanol Market Potential in Belize

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Feasibility Study on the Cellulosic Ethanol Market Potential in Belize Feasibility Study on the Cellulosic Ethanol Market Potential in Belize Organization of American States Department of Sustainable Development Energy and Climate Change Division March, 2009 Funded by the Canadian Department of Foreign Affairs and International Trade (DFAIT) The Organization of American States (OAS) is a multi-national institution that via its Department of Sustainable Development (DSD), Energy and Climate Change Division, in collaboration with the industry, academia, and NGOs, assists OAS Member States to advance sustainable energy in the Americas. This Belize Cellulosic Ethanol Project is part of the effort to facilitate the transition of the Latin American and Caribbean region’s energy mix to increased sustainable use of renewable and abundant biomass resources for the production of cost competitive high performance biofuels, bioproducts and biopower. In 2008, the government of Canada through its Department of Foreign Affairs and International Trade (DFAIT) requested the assistance of the OAS/DSD to address the goal to reduce gasoline consumption through efficiency and adoption of alternative fuels in the Latin American and Caribbean region. This assessment is a response to this request and is prepared by the OAS/DSD Energy and Climate Change Division under supervision of Mark Lambrides (Chief of the Energy and Climate Change Division) to indentify market challenges and further develop opportunities for cellulosic ethanol market penetration in the transport sector of Belize. The principal authors are Ruben Contreras-Lisperguer and Kevin de Cuba. The assessment benefited from the support of the Government of Belize, and the inputs from the multiple governmental, private sector and civil society stakeholders in Belize. Special gratitude is expressed to Kim Osborne (OAS Belize Country Director) and staff, Mauricio Solano for the technical review and Francisco Burgos for general additions and editing and the staff of the Energy and Climate Change Division for the continued support. Disclaimer This report was prepared according to high professional standards and is believed to be an objective representation of the potential for the market development for cellulosic ethanol. All data contained herein is based on primary, and secondary sources believed to be reliable and verified where possible. While this report has been peer reviewed, not all sources have been independently verified and the absolute results, therefore, accuracy is not guaranteed and therefore should be treated as a qualitative means only. Table of Contents LIST OF TABLES ............................................................................................................................................................... III LIST OF FIGURES .............................................................................................................................................................. V ABBREVIATIOS .............................................................................................................................................................. VI EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ................................................................................................................................................ VII 1 ITRODUCTIO ........................................................................................................................................................ 1 1.1 BACKGROUND ....................................................................................................................................................... 1 1.2 WHY CELLULOSIC ETHANOL? ............................................................................................................................... 2 1.3 OBJECTIVE OF STUDY ........................................................................................................................................... 6 2 METHODOLOGY ....................................................................................................................................................... 7 2.1 DEMARCATION ...................................................................................................................................................... 7 2.2 MACRO ASSESSMENT ........................................................................................................................................... 8 3 CELLULOSIC ETHAOL SUB-TECHOLOGY ................................................................................................ 11 3.1 CELLULOSIC ETHANOL SUB -TECHNOLOGIES ..................................................................................................... 11 3.2 INTERNATIONAL CELLULOSIC ETHANOL RD&D INITIATIVES AND PROJECTS ................................................... 16 4 THEORETICAL CELLULOSIC ETHAOL YIELD ........................................................................................... 24 5 FIDIG THE FEEDSTOCK .................................................................................................................................. 26 5.1 FEEDSTOCK FROM THE AGRICULTURAL SECTOR .............................................................................................. 26 5.2 FEEDSTOCK FROM THE FORESTRY SECTOR ...................................................................................................... 30 5.3 FEEDSTOCK FROM THE WASTE MANAGEMENT SECTOR ................................................................................... 34 5.4 OVERALL CE FEEDSTOCK AVAILABLE IN BELIZE .............................................................................................. 38 6 ASSESSIG THE CELLULOSIC ETHAOL FEEDSTOCK COST .................................................................. 39 6.1 FEEDSTOCK DISTRIBUTION AND CRITICAL DISTANCE BETWEEN FEEDSTOCK AND PROCESSING PLANT ......... 39 7 SUSTAIABLE CELLULOSIC ETHAOL PRODUCTIO .............................................................................. 47 7.1 SUSTAINABLE FEEDSTOCK SUPPLY (E1) ........................................................................................................... 47 7.2 SUSTAINABLE CONVERSION TECHNOLOGY ........................................................................................................ 57 8 EVISIOIG THE ETHAOL MARKET I BELIZE ..................................................................................... 59 8.1 BELIZE POLICIES ................................................................................................................................................. 59 8.2 BELIZEAN ENERGY AND TRANSPORT SECTOR BASELINE ................................................................................ 64 8.3 MARKET DRIVERS AND OPPORTUNITIES ............................................................................................................ 67 8.4 BARRIERS TO THE BELIZEAN CELLULOSIC ETHANOL MARKET GROWTH ......................................................... 79 9 COCLUSIOS AD RECOMMEDATIOS .................................................................................................... 84 9.1 DISCUSSION ........................................................................................................................................................ 84 9.2 CONCLUSIONS ..................................................................................................................................................... 86 9.3 RECOMMENDATIONS ........................................................................................................................................... 88 10 AEXES ................................................................................................................................................................... 90 REFERECES ................................................................................................................................................................... 105 ii List of Tables ,, TABLE 1.1 ETHANOL ADVANTAGES TO GASOLINE AS TRANSPORT FUEL ................................................................ 3 TABLE 3.1 CELLULOSIC ETHANOL PROJECTS UNDER DEVELOPMENT AND CONSTRUCTION IN THE U.S. (AS PER DEC 2008) ........... 19 TABLE 3.2 EU CELLULOSIC ETHANOL PROJECTS UNDER DEVELOPMENT AND CONSTRUCTION ......................................... 21 TABLE 3.3 COST COMPARISON OF CURRENT AND FUTURE CE PRODUCTION COSTS ACCORDING TO DIFFERENT ASSESSMENTS ........... 23 TABLE 4.1 THEORETICAL YIELDS PER DRY TON FOR SOME COMMONLY CONSIDERED BIOMASS FEEDSTOCKS IN 2000 .................... 24 TABLE 4.2 PROJECTED THEORETICAL AVERAGE YIELDS PER DRY TON AND TECHNOLOGY .............................................. 24 TABLE 4.3 THEORETICAL ETHANOL YIELDS FOR THE CONSERVATIVE AND OPTIMAL SCENARIOS ....................................... 25 TABLE 5.1 POTENTIAL HARVESTABLE AGRICULTURAL RESIDUES IN BELIZE (SELECTED RPR VALUES ) .................................. 27 TABLE 5.2 MAJOR AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION IN BELIZE IN 2004 AND 2005 ...................................................... 28 TABLE 5.3 POTENTIAL HARVESTABLE AGRICULTURAL RESIDUES IN BELIZE ............................................................ 29 TABLE 5.4 THEORETICAL CELLULOSIC ETHANOL YIELD FROM AGRICULTURAL RESIDUES IN BELIZE ..................................... 30 TABLE 5.5 DENSITY PER WOOD SPECIES .............................................................................................. 33 TABLE 5.6 POTENTIAL HARVESTABLE FORESTRY RESIDUES FROM LOGGING ACTIVITIES
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