2016 BILLION-TON REPORT Agricultural Residues and Biomass Energy Crops

Agricultural Billion-Ton Report include those from the U.S. agricultural sector. POLYSYS was production of corn stover, wheat straw, developed to simulate changes in eco- Residues and oat straw, barley straw, and sorghum nomic policy, agricultural management, stubble. Biomass Energy and natural resource conditions, as well Over the past 5 years, biomass research as to estimate how agricultural producers Crops has developed a better understanding may respond to new agricultural market of the management of dedicated energy opportunities, such as new demand for There are many opportunities to lever- crop options, which is reflected in the biomass, while considering the impact on age agricultural resources on existing 2016 Billion-Ton Report. Energy crops other non-energy crops. lands without interfering with pro- included in the analysis of agricultural biomass resources include herbaceous For this analysis, the data in POLYSYS is duction of food, feed, fiber, or forest varieties—switchgrass, miscanthus, anchored in a USDA-published baseline products. In the recently developed biomass sorghum, and energy cane—as of yield, acreage, and price projec- advanced biomass feedstock com- well as short-rotation woody crops—wil- tions for the agriculture sector, which mercialization vision, estimates of low, eucalyptus, poplar, and pine. These are extended from the USDA 10-year potentially available biomass supply crops are expected to enter into produc- baseline projection period through 2040. tion in 2019. In addition to advancing the from agriculture are built upon the U.S. There are two scenarios used throughout commercialization of biofuels, perennial the analysis: a base-case scenario that Department of Agriculture’s (USDA’s) energy crops also have the potential to includes a 1% annual yield increase, and Long-Term Forecast, ensuring that ex- benefit farm incomes and the environ- isting product demands are met before ment, complementing the production of a high-yield scenario that includes a 3% annual yield increase. Biomass markets biomass crops are planted. conventional crops. are introduced at specified farmgate Dedicated biomass energy crops Approach prices (e.g., <$40, <$60, <$80 per dry ton). Each simulation of a different and agricultural crop residues are For this analysis, the research team used price represents an independent model abundant, diverse, and widely distrib- POLYSYS (Policy Analysis System), simulation. uted across the United States. These which is a modeling framework that serves as a policy simulation model of the potential biomass supplies can play an important role in a national biofuels commercialization strategy.

Summary The 2016 Billion-Ton Report: Advancing Domestic Resources for a Thriving Bioeconomy summarizes the most recent estimates of potential biomass supply that could be available for biorefining in the future. Along with assessing biomass resources from forests, municipal solid wastes, urban wood waste, and algae, the report includes an evaluation of biomass supply potentially available through production on agricultural land.

Crop residues require no additional Less than 10 dt/SqMile 100-500 dt/SqMile 1,000-5,000 dt/SqMile cultivation or dedicated land and are 10-100 dt/SqMile 500-1,000 dt/SqMile considered potentially available in the near term. Residues quantified in the2016 Production of residues and energy crops at an offered farmgate price of $40 in 2040 under a base-case scenario

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Agricultural residue modeling assump- the year 2022, increasing to 90% efficien- constant prices, as well as a national tions include above-ground biomass cy in 2040. Finally, varying the energy supply target, respectively. residue produced before implementing crop input costs by +/- 10% of feedstock sustainability, operational, and economic production estimates was found to have The Path Forward constraints, and these assumptions are the greatest effect on miscanthus and Both the 2016 Billion-Ton Report and the calculated in POLYSYS based on a 1:1 switchgrass, with a base-case impact on 2011 U.S. Billion-Ton Update conclude harvest index. Sustainable constraints are woody crops and energy sorghum. that crop residues will comprise the most apparent in crop residues; various majority of new agricultural biomass crop residues provide important envi- The 2016 Billion-Ton Report builds on resources in the near term, while her- ronmental benefits, including wind and the 2011 U.S. Billion-Ton Update by add- baceous energy crops will contribute water erosion protection, the maintenance ing updated input data, model enhance- the bulk of agricultural resources in the of soil organic carbon, and soil nutrient ments, and new feedstocks. Additionally, long term. Existing agricultural biomass recycling, so not all crop residues may be the 2016 report includes reconciliation resources, such as sugar cane bagasse, used for biomass. between current and projected opera- tional technology, minor corrections in waste byproducts, corn grain, oils, fats, A sensitivity analysis confirmed that the the modeling framework, and revised and greases, are analyzed in chapter 2, price offered for biomass resources from technological assumptions. “Biomass Consumed in the Current agricultural lands has the largest effect Bioeconomy,” in volume 1 of the 2016 on total available supplies. Pastureland All energy crop yields are empirically report. intensification, or the displacement of modeled. Data from more than 110 field The Bioenergy Technologies Office’s pasture to energy crops, is also found to trials, in addition to soil maps and Feedstock Supply and Logistics program have a positive impact on the long-term climate maps, were used by the Sun is implementing a strategy to achieve economic viability of energy crops—es- Grant Regional Feedstock Partnership the vision of a thriving and sustainable pecially miscanthus and switchgrass. in coordination with the Oregon State bioeconomy through the development of Regarding operational efficiency, the ref- University PRISM modeling group to efficient and sustainable biomass feed- erence case assumes a 50% efficiency in estimate county-specific, per-acre yields. The crop yield estimates also incorporate stock supply systems. The U.S. bioenergy biweekly climate variables. industry relies on many factors, including a reliable, adequate supply of high-quality UPDATED AGRICULTURAL Both the 2011 and 2016 Billion-Ton biomass that is available at a cost that BIOMASS FEEDSTOCKS reports analyze the potential biomass enables meeting business profitability feedstock availability at specified targets. With this in mind, the Feedstock • Crop residues farmgate prices. In addition to a baseline Supply and Logistics program is working • Biomass sorghum scenario that establishes initial and future with a variety of collaborators to support • Energy cane crop supply and demand, the 2016 report the development of a logistics system • Poplar expands the number of scenarios and concept that integrates time-sensitive • Willow market simulations to include supplies feedstock collection, storage, and delivery at specified prices and prices at specified operations into efficient, year-round • Eucalyptus production targets. Modeling these addi- supply systems that sustainably deliver • Pine tional scenarios enables supply estimates consistently high-quality, infrastructure- • Switchgrass based on the national market offering compatible feedstocks to the variety of biorefineries served.

This fact sheet refers to the following documents

U.S. Department of Energy. 2016. 2016 Billion-Ton Report: Advancing Domestic Resources for a Thriving Bioeconomy. M. H. Langholtz, B. J. Stokes, and L. M. Eaton (Leads), ORNL/TM-2016/160. Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN. 448p.

Download and view the report, explore its data, and discover additional resources at www.bioenergykdf.net.

For more information, visit: bioenergy.energy.gov

DOE/EE-1441 • June 2016