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Role of Ex Ante Cost Benefit Analysis; and  Conclusions and Next Steps

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Role of Ex Ante Cost Benefit Analysis; and  Conclusions and Next Steps Ex post evaluation of cohesion policy interventions 2000-2006 financed by the Cohesion Fund – Work Package B: Cost-benefit analysis of selected transport projects SECOND INTERIM REPORT 18th March 2011 © Frontier Economics Ltd, London. March 2011 | Frontier Economics, Atkins, ITS i Cost-benefit analysis of selected transport projects Executive Summary 1 1 Introduction 27 1.1 Objective .................................................................................. 27 1.2 Wider impacts assessment ...................................................... 29 1.3 Structure .................................................................................. 30 2 High speed railway Madrid – Barcelona in Spain 33 2.1 Project characteristics .............................................................. 33 2.2 Ex post CBA ............................................................................. 34 2.3 Ex ante CBA ............................................................................ 36 2.4 Comparison of ex ante and ex post CBA ................................. 38 3 A2 motorway in Poland 41 3.1 Project characteristics .............................................................. 41 3.2 Ex post CBA ............................................................................. 41 3.3 Ex ante CBA ............................................................................ 44 3.4 Comparison of ex ante and ex post CBA ................................. 47 4 Algarve railway in Portugal 49 4.1 Project characteristics .............................................................. 49 4.2 Ex post CBA ............................................................................. 49 4.3 Ex ante CBA ............................................................................ 52 4.4 Comparison of ex ante and ex post CBA ................................. 54 5 A23 motorway in Spain 57 5.1 Project characteristics .............................................................. 57 5.2 Ex post CBA ............................................................................. 57 5.3 Ex ante CBA ............................................................................ 60 5.4 Comparison of ex ante and ex post CBA ................................. 62 6 Agiou Konstantinou bypass in Greece 63 Contents ii Frontier Economics, Atkins, ITS | March 2011 6.1 Project characteristics .............................................................. 63 6.2 Ex post CBA ............................................................................. 63 6.3 Ex ante CBA ............................................................................ 67 6.4 Comparison of ex ante and ex post CBA ................................. 69 7 M1 northern motorway in Ireland 71 7.1 Project characteristics .............................................................. 71 7.2 Ex post CBA ............................................................................. 71 7.3 Ex ante CBA ............................................................................ 74 7.4 Comparison of ex ante and ex post CBA ................................. 76 8 Railway Thriassio-Pedio-Eleusina-Korinthos in Greece 79 8.1 Project characteristics .............................................................. 79 8.2 Ex post CBA ............................................................................. 79 8.3 Ex ante CBA ............................................................................ 82 8.4 Comparison of ex ante and ex post CBA ................................. 84 9 IX B corridor in Lithuania 87 9.1 Project characteristics .............................................................. 87 9.2 Ex post CBA ............................................................................. 87 9.3 Ex ante CBA ............................................................................ 90 9.4 Comparison of ex ante and ex post CBA ................................. 92 10 Bratislava Rača – Trnava Railway Upgrade in Slovakia 95 10.1 Project characteristics .............................................................. 95 10.2 Ex post CBA ............................................................................. 95 10.3 Ex ante CBA ............................................................................ 98 10.4 Comparison of ex ante and ex post CBA ............................... 100 11 M0 Budapest Ring Road (eastern section) in Hungary 103 11.1 Project characteristics ............................................................ 103 11.2 Ex post CBA ........................................................................... 103 11.3 Ex ante CBA .......................................................................... 107 Contents March 2011 | Frontier Economics, Atkins, ITS iii 11.4 Comparison of ex ante and ex post CBA ............................... 108 12 Conclusions 111 12.1 Preliminary observations ........................................................ 111 Annexe 1: The ‘Rule of Half’ 113 Annexe 2: Semi-structured stakeholders interview 115 Appendices 1 to 10: Detailed case studies Contents March 2011 | Frontier Economics, Atkins, ITS v Glossary Acronym Definition AADT Average Annual Daily Traffic ADIF Administrador de Infraestructuras Ferroviarias. The railway infrastructure manager in Spain AHVV Average Hourly Value of time for one Vehicle AVE Spanish high-speed railway service (Alta Velocidad Española) B/C ratio Benefit cost ratio. Also BCR. BIR Benefit investment ratio BOE Spanish official state gazette (Boletín Oficial del Estado) CBA Cost Benefit analysis. Also COBA CF Cohesion Funds CP Comboios de Portugal. A state-owned company which operates freight and passenger trains in Portugal. CSO Irish Central Statistical Office CUPT Centre for EU Transport Projects. Body set up to implement programmes and projects of the transport infrastructure development, particularly programmes and projects co-financed by EU funds in the programming period of 2007 - 2013. DIA Environmental Impact Declaration (Declaración de Impacto Medioambiental) DoF Irish Department of Finance EBRD European Bank for Reconstruction and Development EC European Commission EIA Environmental Impact Assessment Contents vi Frontier Economics, Atkins, ITS | March 2011 Acronym Definition EIB European Investment Bank. EIRR Economic internal rate of return. ENPV Economic net present value. ERDF European Regional Development Fund FDI Foreign Direct Investment FNPV(C) Financial net present value of the investment. FNPV(K) Financial net present value of capital. FRR Financial rate of return. FRR(C) Financial rate of return of the investment. FRR(K) Financial rate of return of capital. GDDKiA Generalna Dyrekcja Drog Krajowych Autostrad (Polish General Directorate for National Roads and Highways). Established in the Polish Ministry of Transportation, GDDKiA is the authority in charge of managing the national roads and the implementation of the state budget in the sector. GDP Gross Domestic Product HEATCO EC funded research project in charge of "Developing Harmonised European Approaches for Transport Costing and Project Assessment". HGV Heavy goods vehicle. INE Spanish National Statistics Institute (Instituto Nacional de Estadística) IRR Internal rate of return. ISPA Instrument for Structural Policies for Pre – Accession Contents March 2011 | Frontier Economics, Atkins, ITS vii Acronym Definition JASPERS Joint Assistance to Support Projects in European Regions. A joint initiative of the EIB, EBRD and EC to assist the 12 Central and Eastern EU Member States in the preparation of major projects to be submitted for grant financing under the Structural and Cohesion Funds. LAV High-speed line (Linea de Alta Velocidad) LGV Light goods vehicle. LRA Lithuanian Road Administration NDS Slovakian highway authority (Národná diaľničná spoločnosť) NRA National Roads Authority NTDP Lithuanian National Transport Development Programme OKA Hungarian National Highway Databank PATHE Patras, Athens, Thessaloniki, Evzoni PCU Passenger Car Units PIA Personal Injury Accidents PLN Polish Zloty PSV Passenger Service Vehicle (i.e. bus or coach) PTE Portuguese Escudos POVT Programa Operacional Temático Valorização do Território. The Portuguese government programme for the implementation of infrastructure projects PVB Present Value Benefit REFER Rede Ferroviária Nacional. The railway infrastructure manager in Portugal Contents viii Frontier Economics, Atkins, ITS | March 2011 Acronym Definition RENFE Red Nacional de Ferrocarriles Españoles. The railway operator in Spain. RSA Irish Road Safety Association SEZ Special Economic Zone SME Small and Medium size Enterprise TEN-T Trans European transport network TOR Terms of Reference VAT Value Added Tax VOC Vehicle Operating Costs VOT Value of Time ŽSR Slovakian rail authority (Železnice Slovenskej Republiky) ŽSSK Železničná spoločnosť Slovensko. Slovak state-owned passenger train operating company Contents March 2011 | Frontier Economics, Atkins, ITS 1 Executive Summary Introduction Frontier Economics, together with Atkins and the Institute of Transport Studies, University of Leeds, are pleased to present this Second Interim Report for the “Ex post evaluation of cohesion policy interventions 2000-2006 financed by the Cohesion Fund – Work Package B: Cost-benefit analysis of selected transport projects”. Following the completion of the Project Descriptions report (the second deliverable for this study), DG REGIO selected the ten projects to be taken forward in this study, which completed Task 1 of this study. The objective of
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