Deliverable: D 4.4 – Effects of the Crisis & Recommendations 1 Grant Agreement No.: 635973 Deliverable: D4.4: Effects of the Crisis & Recommendations Project Start Date: December 1st 2014 End Date: August 31st 2016 Co-ordinator: University of the Aegean Deliverable No D 4.4 WP 4 Task 4.3 Task Leader Faculty of Civil Engineering, University of Belgrade Due date: 01/04/2016 Submission date: 21/07/2016 2 3 Document summary information Key Contributions Initials Contributing Authors Organisation (Chapters/Sections) AR Athena Roumboutsos University of the Aegean Coordination of research & SK Seraphim Kapros Chapters 1,3 and Sec 8.1 PM Panayota Moraiti IK Iosif Karousos EK Emmanouel Konstantinopoulos GM Goran Mladenovic University of Belgrade Coordination of research MM Miljan Mikic JC Jelena Cirilovic NV Nevena Vajdic AN Ana Nikolic PN Pierre-Francois Nouaille CEREMA Sec. 2.2 TG Thierry Gouin AL Agnieszka Lukasiewicz IBDIM Sec. 2.3 RM Rosário Macário IST Sec. 2.4 MO Joana Costa MP Marisa Pedro LT Lourdes Trujillo Castellano University de Las Palmas de Sec. 2.5 and FS Federico Inchausti Sintes Gran Canaria Chapter 7 JC Javier Campos MG Maria Manuela González CM Casiano Manrique KV Koen Verhoest University of Antwerp Chapter 5, Annex 1 TV Thierry Vanelslander EM Eleni Moschouli MS Murwantara Soecipto BK Bjorn Kleizen OH Omer Hussain HV Hans Voordijk University of Twente Chapter 6 IC Ibsen Cardenas 4 Quality Control Who Date Checked by External reviewer Jonathan Gifford 29.06.2016. Checked by Internal reviewer Pekka Leviäkangas 22.06.2016. Checked by Task Leader Goran Mladenovic 21.07.2016. Checked by Project Coordinator Athena Roumboutsos 21.07.2016. Disclaimer The content of the publication herein is the sole responsibility of the publishers and it does not necessarily represent the views expressed by the European Commission or its services. While the information contained in the documents is believed to be accurate, the authors(s) or any other participant in the BENEFIT consortium make no warranty of any kind with regard to this material including, but not limited to the implied warranties of merchantability and fitness for a particular purpose. Neither the BENEFIT Consortium nor any of its members, their officers, employees or agents shall be responsible or liable in negligence or otherwise howsoever in respect of any inaccuracy or omission herein. Without derogating from the generality of the foregoing neither the BENEFIT Consortium nor any of its members, their officers, employees or agents shall be liable for any direct or indirect or consequential loss or damage caused by or arising from any information advice or inaccuracy or omission herein. 5 Glossary Within BENEFIT certain terms are used throughout. These are described here. Collective BENEFIT database: This is the BENEFIT database consisting, at the start of the project, of seventy-five case studies of funding transport infrastructure and twenty-four country profiles. These are published data from COST Action TU1001 and the OMEGA Centre megaprojects. During the course of the project, the database will be supplemented with at least twenty-eight more cases of funding/financing infrastructure (in particular public funding/financing, which are less represented). Funding Scheme: A funding scheme is considered to be any combination of private and public income generated by or towards the infrastructure over its life cycle. These may include any combination of user contribution (tolls, fees, fares etc.) or public contributions based on direct and indirect taxation etc. Public funding may also take on the form of availability fees, shadow tolls etc. Financing Scheme: A Financing scheme is considered to be any combination of public and/or private financial investments required by the infrastructure over its life cycle. Business model: The business model describes the business case of the overall investment in the project. Depending on the context, it may be narrowed, including strictly the infrastructure projects considered, or it may be widened, including other planned and commonly designed activities in order to capture other “planning gains” (and other value-added services) and even exploiting synergies across the sectors (e.g. transport, energy, ICT). The wider context of business model incorporates the notion of innovative procurement and other approaches to infrastructure delivery, now in the pilot phase. Key Elements: Elements are groups of variable project dimensions of the same context, which influence the performance of the funding scheme and financing scheme. Elements, as noted in Figure 1.1.1 [of the proposal/contract], are the implementation environment (socio-political, micro and macroeconomic, institutional, regulatory, etc.); the transport mode (functionality; natural and contractual exclusivity, etc.); business model structure; funding scheme; financing scheme and governance and institutional arrangement (risk allocation; decision making processes; ownership rights, etc.). Typology: A typology concerns groups of factors describing a project that contribute in demonstrating a particular behaviour. Example: Negative Private investment environment type in the implementation context typology. The group of factors leading to the demonstration of this behaviour may be: poor growth forecast, lack of enabling legal framework etc. Typologies for every element (context) will be generated during the project using the collective BENEFIT database (country profiles and case studies) as field examples and desk research. Quantitative and qualitative analysis are the analytical tools that may be used. Decision Matching Framework: This is the Analysis and Decision Framework to be developed by the BENEFIT project. The framework will contain typologies influencing the overall performance of the investment. It will initially be developed using hypotheses of optimum matching between types, which are confirmed as Matching Principles (rules describing how optimum performance may be achieved) during the course of the project. As such, it could be used as an analysis tool (e.g. identification of “mismatches”) or decision tool (e.g. given the types of elements, which funding scheme type or project rating framework (expressed as the risk to match a specific financing scheme) or project rating enhancing framework (which types may be changed and in which direction to improve project rating) is most appropriate). Snapshots: These describe the project case study at various points in its life cycle through the typology indicator values at the particular point in time. 6 In this report, some additional terms, specific to crisis are used and they are described here: Financial crisis: A situation in which the supply of money is outpaced by the demand for money. This means that liquidity is quickly evaporated because available money is withdrawn from banks, forcing banks either to sell other investments to make up for the shortfall or to collapse. Global Financial Crisis (GFC): A worldwide period of economic difficulty experienced by markets and consumers. A global financial crisis is a difficult business environment to succeed in since potential consumers tend to reduce their purchases of goods and services until the economic situation improves. Economic crisis: A situation in which the economy of a country experiences a sudden downturn brought on by a financial crisis. An economy facing an economic crisis will most likely experience a falling GDP, a drying up of liquidity and rising/falling prices due to inflation/deflation. An economic crisis can take the form of a recession or a depression. Also called real economic crisis. Recession: Period of general economic decline, defined usually as a contraction in the GDP for six months (two consecutive quarters) or longer. Marked by high unemployment, stagnant wages, and fall in retail sales, a recession generally does not last longer than one year and is much milder than a depression. Although recessions are considered a normal part of a capitalist economy, there is no unanimity of economists on its causes. Collapse: Sudden and dramatic slowdown in economic activity, resulting in a steep drop in prices with a consequent fall in level of employment. Depression: Lowest point in an economic cycle characterized by (1) reduced purchasing power, (2) mass unemployment, (3) excess of supply over demand, (4) falling prices, or prices rising slower than usual, (5) falling wages, or wages rising slower than usual, and (6) general lack of confidence in the future. Also called a slump, a depression causes a drop in all economic activity. Major depressions may continue for several years, such as the great depression (1930-40) that had worldwide impact. 7 List of Abbreviations MF : Matching Framework FEI : Financial – Economic Indicator InI : Institutional Indicator GI : Governance Indicator CSI : Cost Saving Indicator RSI : Revenue Support Indicator RAI : Remuneration Attractiveness Indicator RRI : Revenue Robustness Indicator MEAI : Market Efficiency & Acceptability Indicator FSI : Financing Scheme Indicator FsQCA : Fuzzy set Qualitative Comparative Analysis IA : Importance Analysis EA : Econometric Analysis 8 Executive Summary The delivery of transport infrastructure is characterised by significant complexity including multiple factors that interrelate positively or negatively leading to observed performance. Multiple actors make decisions that influence the course of development and operation. Infrastructure projects are also vulnerable to external micro