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4 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/APRIL 27-MAY 10, 2015 AviationWeek.com/awst April 27-May 10, 2015 Contents Volume 177 Number 8 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY Digital Extras Tap this icon in articles in the digital edition of AW&ST for exclusive The number of intercepts in international airspace prompted by Russian features. If you have not signed up to military aircraft, such as the turboprop Ilyushin Il-20, increased markedly receive your digital subscription, go to during 2014. Alarm over the proximity of military aircraft to airliners fl ying in ow.ly/AkXJo 26 Europe’s international airspace has prompted the European Aviation Safety Agency to examine how it can separate the two. 8 Feedback 9 Who’s Where 12-14 First Take 15 Up Front 16 Going Concerns 17 Inside Business Aviation 18 Airline Intel 19 Leading Edge 20 Commander’s Intent 21 Reality Check 22 In Orbit 25 Washington Outlook 75 Classifi ed 76 Contact Us 77 Aerospace Calendar

DEFENSE 33 Two mainstay U.S. launch com- 54 Suppliers join cost-sharing eff ort 26 Uncooperative military aircraft fl ying panies struggling to keep their edge on a critical advanced-rotorcraft in international airspace pose unex- in a changing government market demonstration program pected threat to European air traffi c 51 Rocket Lab preparing to begin test- 55 Pratt & Whitney using ceramic mat- 28 Poland takes next step toward ing smallsat launcher that would use rix composites for rotating engine modernizing its armed forces, but battery-powered turbomachinery elements rather than static parts its choices may have wider eff ects TECHNOLOGY 56 Test pilot program proves viability 29 Airbus tells India’s PM it is pre- of adaptive controller for pared to boost co-production of 34 At-sea demo will focus on rapid civil airliner safety application civil and military equipment there launch-and-swarm formation with autonomous small UAS 40 USMC preparing for its only F-35B COMMERCIAL AVIATION operational testing period before 35 High-energy laser developer says 36 Three members are leaving the declaring IOC as early as July its third-generation tactical weapon Association of European Airlines is ahead of fi ber-laser systems in a dispute over air transport SPACE 30 Commercial cargo vehicles designed 52 Spray-on anti-ice coating could ex- 37 Transition to the A330neo was never to supply the ISS may add elbow tend UAS missions, allow GA air- going to be easy, but satisfying the room for the long haul to Mars craft to complete fl ights more safely Chinese market will make it worse

ON THE COVERS This week, Aviation Week publishes two editions. The far left cover features a special report on ad- vanced manufacturing that examines whether the automotive industry’s embrace of composites can be applied in the production of aircraft, which are built at much lower volumes (page 70). The cover’s left photo shows composite structure BMW i3 electric cars being assembled in a highly automated plant in Leipzig, Germany, while the right photo features an Airbus A350 being assembled in Toulouse. More than 50% of the airliner’s structure is carbon fi ber. BMW and Airbus photos. In both editions are articles on how Europe is trying to cope with Russian military aircraft fl ying without transponders or radio contact (page 26), Airbus’s failure to attract Chinese interest in a regional A330 (page 37), Avia- tion Week’s annual Top-Performing Companies rankings and analysis (page 42) and the approach of crucial ship-based operational tests of the F-35B, a precursor to the Marine Corps declaring initial op- erational capability for the new fi ghter jet (page 40). An F-35B is featured on the cover of our Defense Technology International edition. Lockheed Martin photo. Aviation Week publishes a digital edition every week. Read it at AviationWeek.com/awst and on our app.

AviationWeek.com/awst AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/APRIL 27-MAY 10, 2015 5 Read the Digital Edition 12

Free to subscribers. Get new content 39 Ground testing reveals bug in 48 Shareholders in aerospace and daily and read the weekly digital edition Mitsubishi MRJ software and defense have never had it so good of Aviation Week online or in our app. some airframe changes are needed thanks to value maximization DESKTOP/LAPTOP 63 Engine failure followed by smoke in 50 BAE may not be leading the pack Go to AviationWeek.com/awst the cockpit reveals potential short- of its TPC peers, but is a leading comings in emergency training performer for the Pentagon APPLE APP Go to the Apple App Store, search 64 Airbus mocks up 11-abreast A380 ROTORCRAFT for “Aviation Week” and download the Aviation Week & Space Technology economy confi guration in attempt 58 Light helos soon could have health app to your iPad or iPhone. to aid revenue-conscious carriers and usage monitoring thanks to

technology for wind turbines 65 Four ATC organizations sign pact for NEW ANDROID APP joint development of the next-gen 58 Helicopter manufacturers may be Go to Google Play, search for “Aviation of the controller working position closing in on a long-sought goal: Week” and download the Aviation Week eliminating rotor-blade vibration & Space Technology app for your 66 Cathay Pacifi c relies on broad Android phone or tablet. array of strategic advantages to UNMANNED SYSTEMS defend against LCCs, other threats LOGIN 60 Dragonfl y Pictures developing Tap on any locked article to get to the 68 Cathay Pacifi c well-positioned for large, tandem-rotor UAS aimed at login screen OR on the menu icon in the rebounding cargo markets, with autonomous heavy-lift applications upper right corner of the app screen Hong Kong hub and new fl eet types (image with three parallel lines) and tap MRO “Login.” Log in using the email address 69 New Hong Kong cargo terminal gives 61 Airbus eyes major share of A350 af- associated with your subscription. Cathy Pacifi c greater capacity termarket business, fi nalizes fi rst and improved competitive position MRO deal with one of jet’s buyers Forgot Password? Tap the “forgot password” link on the login screen TOP-PERFORMING 62 New aircraft and progress of data and follow the reset instructions emailed COMPANIES analytics will reshape the aircraft to you (this password may not be the same maintenance is conducted 42 TPC rankings and results show aero- as your Zinio digital edition password).

space & defense fi rms have become ADVANCED MANUFACTURING good businesses, maybe too good Customer Service If you don’t have 70 Europe’s aircraft industry seeks to a registered email or password, or are 46 TPC ranking methodology incorpor- pave the way for high-rate produc- having problems with the download ated changes that subtly but tion of carbon-fi ber structures or login, contact our customer care signifi cantly infl uenced the results team for assistance: 73 Opinions differ over whether air- 46 Wall Street’s outlook on A&D framers can benefi t from the auto Toll-free (North America) industry’s direction for composites 800-525-5003 companies can be a universe apart from TPC and other rankings Outside North America VIEWPOINT (+1) 847-763-9147 46 Pensions, foreign currency 78 Stakeholders frustrated by unmet hedging and other accounting promises for the ATC system and Email: [email protected] moves boost A&D appearances airport infrastructure shortfalls Web: AviationWeek.com/awstcustomers

6 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/APRIL 27-MAY 10, 2015 AviationWeek.com/awst It’s easy to be green when it’s in your nature.

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Power People Depend On.™ Feedback Aviation Week & Space Technology welcomes the opinions of its readers on issues raised in the magazine. Address letters to the Executive EFFECTIVE CAS IS ELUSIVE Although it involves a major shift Editor, Aviation Week & Space Technology, In regard to “Danger Close” (AW&ST within the Pentagon, this dilemma 1911 Fort Myer Drive, Suite 600, Arlington, Va. March-30-April 12, p. 54), in light of the could be solved by these actions: 22209. Fax to (202) 383-2346 or send via e-mail air defense systems coming into service šMandate that air operations below to: [email protected] and their layering and density, note that 200-ft. altitude belong to the Marine Letters should be shorter than 200 words, and you must give a genuine identification, address when the F-35 becomes operational it air and Army air units. and daytime telephone number. We will not will be forced to fly an attack profile šTransfer all A-10 assets, spares, and print anonymous letters, but names will be similar to the A-10’s. Given the new associated personnel and equipment to withheld. We reserve the right to edit letters. aircraft’s lack of armor, single engine, the Army and Marine Corps. general vulnerability, high cost and the šTie payment for A-10 operations to 03B NETWORKS very ad hoc nature of true close air sup- units that use and control them. Air port (CAS), the F-35 will never fly CAS cover would belong to the Air Force against any peer or near-peer opponent. over land and Navair over the seas and It is fairly easy to design a CAS waterways. airplane to supplement and/or replace It all seems so logical. I am speaking the A-10, but the real problem is the based on a long career as a methods total absence of an effective, survivable and standards engineer with the now- manned-C4 intelligence, surveillance shuttered Naval Aviation Depot. and reconnaissance (ISR) capability, Richard Neveln which the Air Force has bitterly op- ALAMEDA, CALIFORNIA posed developing. As for other fighter aircraft, their BRAVING THE NEXT STEP use at such a tempo over so long a pe- I am of a generation that empathizes riod literally guts any viable doctrine with reader Col. Michael Gallagher for fighting today’s unconventional (AW&ST April 13-26, p. 6) about retain- wars due to a total failure to grasp ing the A-10, but I sense we are wrong. the proper use of asymmetry, or even Analogies from the past include recognize, much less understand, the men charging at machine guns with asymmetries exploited by our foes. bayonets, which were, after all, a great Thomas J. Rath improvement on pikes, or the cavalry TOUTING TUGS FOR SPACE DEBRIS PASADENA, CALIFORNIA patiently standing by from 1914-17 wait- The era of small satellites is nearly ing to pursue an enemy that refused to upon us as manufacturers position to CONSPICUOUS ABSENCE retreat, to name but two instances. provide vehicles and systems for an A table titled “U.S. Air Force Close The military have always resisted emerging market, as highlighted in Air Support Aircraft and Munitions” embracing new weaponry. It is hard to “The Year of the Smallsat” (AW&ST accompanied the recent article “Dan- like the F-35, but we must. March 30-April 12, p. 31). ger Close.” The table was informative, Lew Creedon As we start to fill up the prime low- but you left out an important category: OCEANSIDE, CALIFORNIA Earth-orbit real estate with smallsats, Forward-Firing Precision Weapons. we should not overlook a companion Both the MQ-1 and MQ-9 can carry COCKPIT ACCESS VIABILITY need in support of their proliferation— AGM-114 Hellfire missiles when in I applaud Jens Flottau’s commen- removal of the inevitable space junk the armed ISR role or when expected tary “Flight 9525 Lessons” on the that will be generated by failed small- to provide CAS support, and this is consequences of a rush to judgment in sats and, even worse, orbital debris often a crucial difference between the the aftermath of the Germanwings ac- from smallsat collisions. support an MQ-9 can provide and (for cident (AW&ST April 13-26, p. 17). But I Yes there is still a lot of “space” in example) what a B-1 might provide. have one quibble. He says the “possibil- space, but cheap smallsats will bring The low-collateral-damage and small- ity of pilot suicide was not considered” a higher probability of failure com- danger-close numbers often make the [in the aftermath of 9/11]. I disagree. pared with the more robust satellites difference in opting to employ or not. The aerospace community was well currently in service. And the potential The static and moving-target aware of the suicidal implications in the number of these less-expensive craft capabilities of the AGM-114 are hugely Egyptair and Silk Air events he cited, could be astronomical. valued by ground troops in CAS situa- but no one could recommend an emer- An enterprising company that can tions, especially when the situation is gency override that did not conflict with field a small maneuverable space tug dynamic or enemy forces are in close the top priority—deny access to ter- with grappling capability to cope with proximity to friendly forces. It is why rorists at all costs. And I haven’t seen a the carcasses of spacecraft will be the A-10 is so valued as well. convincing proposal since. needed to clean up the remains and Name Witheld By Request If we believe the terror threat has deposit them in a decaying orbit. The SAN DIEGO, CALIFORNIA lessened or if it hasn’t, that we can rely responsiveness of the tugs will have a on passenger power, then do provide significant impact on the balance sheet SIMPLE SOLUTION? emergency access. But does anyone of the smallsat constellation owner/ The A-10 Warthog solution seems truly believe that? operator. too close to the noses of the parties Alex Fisher Tom Megna locked in the argument. BANBURY, ENGLAND LITTLETON, COLORADO

8 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/APRIL 27-MAY 10, 2015 AviationWeek.com/awst Who’s Where To submit information for the Who’s Where column, send Word or attached text files (no PDFs) and photos to: [email protected] For additional information on companies and individuals listed in this column, please refer to the rian Hunter has been named dent from vice president-sales Gerry McRae Aviation Week Intelligence Network vice president-sales and mar- of Peterborough-based New at AviationWeek.com/awin For Bketing for Ametek Singapore. Hampshire Ball Bearings information on ordering, telephone He was head of the Asia Pacific Com- (NHBB). Richard Bardel- U.S.: +1 (866) 857-0148 or prehensive Accessory Repair and lini has been promoted to ex- +1 (515) 237-3682 outside the U.S. Exchange program of UTC Aerospace ecutive vice president of R&S Systems. North America/general man- Steve Hasker has been appointed ager of the NHBB Astro Div. in Israel at the U.S. Embassy in to the board of directors of Los Ange- Laconia from vice president- Robert McGahan Tel Aviv. He has been special les-based Global Eagle Entertainment manufacturing and operations assistant to the commander of Inc. He is global president at Nielsen for NHBB’s manufacturing United Nations Command of N.V. and was its president for global divisions. Combined Forces Command, products. Philip Kiel has been ap- U.S. Forces Korea, Yongsan, Sonny Stern has become vice pointed president of Photo-Son- South Korea. He succeeds president of sales for MRO Services at ics Inc., Burbank, California. He Brig. Gen. John S. Shapland, Atlanta-based Delta TechOps. He has was vice president-operations. who has been named director been an executive at the International John R. Gawsyszawski has of air, space and information Lease Finance Corp. and AerCap. been named CEO of Pacific Aero- Patrick Coulter operations at Headquarters Gerry McRae (see photo) has been space Resources & Technologies, Air Force Materiel Command, promoted to executive director of Victorville, California. He was Wright-Patterson AFB, Ohio. business development from director chief operating officer and suc- Katherine A.W. McGrady of project management for Flight- ceeds David Green, who is now has been appointed presi- Safety International of New York. chairman. Gawsyszawski has dent/CEO of the CNA Corp., Robert McGahan (see photo) has been vice president-business de- Arlington, Virgina. She has been appointed director of business velopment at Air Services based been acting president of the development for government train- in Cleveland. Center for Naval Analyses. Scott Politte ing and simulation. He was manager Dan Colbert (see photo) McGrady will succeed Robert of military business development has become president/CEO of J. Murray, who plans to re- for visual systems. Patrick Coulter Aircraft Propeller Service, Lake tire. (see photo) has been named director Zurich, Illinois. He succeeds Oliver Stratford has been of business development for com- Mark Grant, who will be chair- named sales manager for mercial training and simulation. He man. Colbert was an operating Southern Africa for London- has been manager of FlightSafety’s partner for The Riverside Co. based AJW Aviation. Learning Centers in Toronto and and was president of Crane Tokyo. And Scott Politte (see photo) Composites. Jim Geary HONORS AND ELECTIONS has become assistant manager of USAF Brig. Gen. Joseph T. Capt. Lou Nemeth, who FlightSafety International’s Wichita Guastella has been nominated is chief safety officer at CAE East Learning Center. He succeeds for promotion to major general Inc., has been named to the Russ Axtell, who has retired. Politte and assignment as deputy chief board of governors of the was the center’s assistant director of of staff for operations, Supreme Washington-based Air Charter training. Headquarters Allied Powers Safety Foundation. Erin Neal has been appointed an Europe, Mons, Belgium. He Mark Roberts, who is a executive vice president at McBee has been deputy director for practice director within Bris- Strategic Consulting in Washington. requirements for the Joint Staff Richard Bardellini tol, England-based Atkins’s She was director of government rela- at the Pentagon in Washington. aerospace, defense, security tions for Orbital-ATK and had been Guastella will be succeeded by and technology business, has manager for government relations Brig. Gen. Steven L. Basham, been appointed chairman of at Ball Aerospace and Technologies who has been director of stra- the executive committee of Corp. tegic plans, requirements and the Air Power Association. He Ernest Waaser has become CEO of programs at Headquarters is the first chairman who is NuSil Technology, Carpinteria, Califor- Pacific Air Forces, Joint Base not serving in the Royal Air nia. He succeeds Dick Compton, who Pearl Harbor-Hickam, Hawaii. Dan Colbert Force. is retiring as CEO, but will continue as He will be followed by Brig. Steve Townes, who is chairman. Waaser was an operating Gen. Gregory M. Guillot, who has president/CEO of Ranger Aerospace, partner at Linden Capital Partners and been commander of the 55th Wing of Greenville, South Carolina, has been had been CEO of Systagenix Wound Air Combat Command, Offutt AFB, named chairman of SCAerospace, a Management. Nebraska. Brig. Gen. Ricky N. Rupp group organized by the South Carolina Jim Geary (see photos) has been has been appointed U.S. defense at- Council on Competitiveness and the promoted to executive vice presi- tache and senior defense official for Commerce Department. c

AviationWeek.com/awst AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/APRIL 27-MAY 10, 2015 9 Composites in the U.S.

Where is Innovation?

Where is Discovery?

Where is the Future?

Houston 2015. It’s the place to be!

Composites Show & Conferences • Houston, TX • June 2-4, 2015 George R. Brown Convention Center Co-located with Techtextil North America, JEC Americas continues to lead the way in innovation, research, education, and trends. Be at the hub of the industry for three days in Houston where you’ll meet potential business partners, enhance your knowledge and expand your professional network. Learn more at www.jeccomposites.com Houston, TX • June 2-4, 2015 George R. Brown Convention Center

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Join your industry peers to innovate, discover and see the future of the composites industry. www.jeccomposites.com Contact Peter Zezima, NA Sales Director at 203-829-6193 First Take For breaking news, go to AviationWeek.com

deck. Operators will have the choice of 10-abreast standard economy seating or adding one seat per row. The seats are installed on the existing rails, so no extra floor work is needed. The configuration will be available in 2017 (see page 64).

Mitsubishi Aircraft will move a fourth aircraft to its planned U.S. flight-test effort to offset another delay in development of the MRJ regional jet. Ground tests revealed a software bug and the need to redesign some parts, delaying first flight to September-Octo- U.S. NAVY ber from the second quarter. First de- DEFENSE The due-regard radar required for livery remains targeted for the second the U.S. Navy’s Northrop Grumman quarter of 2017 (see page 39). The U.S. Navy’s Northrop Grumman MQ-4C Triton to operate in interna- X-47B accomplished the first autono- tional airspace will now be fitted to Air Berlin and International Airlines mous aerial refueling of an unmanned the “multi-intelligence” version of the Group (IAG) carriers British Airways aircraft on April 22. Flying behind an unmanned aircraft, slated to become and Iberia have withdrawn from the Omega Boeing K-707 tanker off the U.S. operational in 2020. The active-array ra- Association of European Airlines, citing East Coast, the probe-equipped un- dar was planned for the baseline version disagreement over protectionist avia- manned combat air system demonstra- of Triton, which is to be operational in tion policy. European airlines led by Air tor autonomously engaged the deployed 2018, but hit development problems. France-KLM and Lufthansa are calling drogue and took on 4,000 lb. of fuel. for curbs on the growth of Gulf carriers. The test concluded the planned X-47B Antonov rolled out the An-178 Qatar Airways is the biggest investor in demo program. transport aircraft on April 16 in Kiev, IAG, and Etihad Airways in Air Berlin (see page 36). Poland has selected Airbus Heli- copters’ H225M as its future military Struggling with chronic airliner seat- utility helicopter, and Raytheon’s Pa- delivery delays, Zodiac Aerospace has triot as its next-generation air defense launched a major process reorganization. system, together valued at around “We overloaded the production capac- $8 billion. The defense ministry says ity,” says CEO Olivier Zarrouati. “These helicopter bids from AgustaWestland delays are unacceptable, for the client and Sikorsky, which already have facili- ANTONOV and for us.” He expects the delays, which ties in Poland, did not meet require- Ukraine. First flight is planned for early have had an impact on Airbus and Boe- ments (see page 28). May. The airlifter is derived from the ing deliveries, to be resolved by August. An-148 regional jet, with a rear cargo India may scrap its long-delayed ramp, reinforced landing gear and BUSINESS AVIATION Medium Multi-Role Combat Aircraft uprated Ivchenko D-436 turbofans. In (MMRCA) deal with Dassault for 126 February, United Arab Emirates-based Piper Aircraft has revamped its Rafales in favor of a government-to- freight carrier Maximus Air signed a high-performance single-engine line, government route, after negotiating letter of intent for An-178s. introducing the turboprop M600 and the purchase of 36 Rafales from France Meridian M500 and the M350—an in flyaway condition under a separate COMMERCIAL AVIATION upgraded piston-engine Mirage. The deal. MMRCA includes 18 aircraft from M600 has Garmin G3000 touch-screen Dassault and the rest built locally by Citing Rolls-Royce’s willingness to Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd., but ne- inject new technology into its engine, gotiations have “gone into a loop,” says Emirates has switched suppliers and India’s defense minister (see page 29). placed an order valued at $9.26 billion PIPER AIRCRAFT for Trent 900s to power its next batch Dassault’s Falcon 2000 Maritime of 50 Airbus A380s. The deal potentially Surveillance Aircraft has been select- moves the airline closer to a reengined ed by Japan’s coast guard. The number A380neo, which Emirates President Tim of aircraft required was not disclosed. Clark says Airbus is still considering. Dassault’s partners in equipping the aircraft are L-3 Platform Integration Forget inflight lounges, shopping and and Thales. The coast guard already spas, Airbus is offering an 11-abreast operates two Falcon 900s. economy configuration in the A380 main

12 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/APRIL 27-MAY 10, 2015 AviationWeek.com/awst Missile Defense Electronic Warfare Cyber C4ISR Precision Weapons Training MISSION: A WORLD OF INNOVATION FOR OVER 90 YEARS, RAYTHEON HAS ENABLED COUNTLESS MISSIONS BY REMAINING COMMITTED TO A SINGLE ONE: CUSTOMER SUCCESS. FROM THE DEPTHS OF THE OCEAN TO THE FARTHEST REACHES OF SPACE, FROM REMOTE BATTLEFIELDS TO THE VIRTUAL REALMS OF CYBERSPACE, RAYTHEON TECHNOLOGIES ARE DEPLOYED IN MORE THAN 80 COUNTRIES TO DELIVER INNOVATION IN ALL DOMAINS.

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FAA’s Accelerating 1,672 operations approved in Canada1 avionics and a new wing with more fuel capacity for a maximum range Commercial of 1,300 nm. Certification is expected UAS Approvals 729 FAA petitions still pending2 in the fourth quarter. The M350 was certified on April 10. 180 160 Eclipse Aerospace and Kestrel 140 Aircraft have merged to form One 120 Aviation, with plans to develop a fam- ily of aircraft including the Eclipse 100 550 twin-engine light jet and Kestrel 80 K350 single-engine turboprop. Kes- 60 trel’s Alan Klapmeier, who co-founded 40 Cirrus Aircraft, is CEO with Eclipse’s Section 333 Exemptions Mason Holland as chairman. Kestrel 20 development will now be funded from 0 Eclipse sales.

Sept. 2014 Dec. 2014 April 2015

ROTORCRAFT 1As of Dec. 31, 2014 2As of April 20, 2015 Sources: FAA, Transport Canada Canada has ordered seven Bell 412EPi medium utility helicopters for its Coast Guard modernization. The C$155 million ($123 million) deal is the sec- ond helicopter contract placed by the Department of Fisheries & Oceans—um- brella agency for the Coast Guard—fol- lowing a 2014 order for 15 Bell 429s. The 412s will be delivered starting in June 2016, replacing Bell 212s.

To ensure its Model 525 super-medi- um helicopter will not be missed when it makes its first flight, Bell has painted SPACE EXPLORATION TECHNOLOGIES first prototype FTV1 bright orange. SpaceX’s sixth cargo resupply mission FTV1 is largely complete and awaiting for NASA. The next landing attempt installation of its five-blade main rotor may be on land (see page 33). system in preparation for ground runs and a first flight, likely to take place in Wear in main-engine turbopump the next couple of months. bearings is the “most probable” cause of the explosion that destroyed an Orbital ATK Antares launch vehicle on a resupply mission to the International 10 YEARS AGO IN AW&ST Space Station in October. But engine supplier Aerojet Rocketdyne argues The Airbus A380 made its the source of wear was likely ingested maiden flight from Toulouse on debris in the propellant, which would April 27, 2005, in front of 50,000 shift responsibility to first-stage tank onlookers. French President provider Yuzhmash and Orbital. Jacques Chirac hailed the flight as “a milestone for Europe,” but the BELL HELICOPTER NovaWurks has agreed to build a program soon was bedeviled by SPACE 40-satellite constellation for a Ca- wiring problems that would delay nadian start-up using mass-produced its entry into service with Singa- Slower than expected throttle re- “satlet” modular building blocks it is de- pore Airlines by about a year, to sponse is blamed for SpaceX’s latest veloping for Pentagon research agency October 2007. failure to demonstrate recovery of a Darpa. The company will provide the Falcon 9 first stage by landing it on an space segment for Montreal-based Nor- Read our original coverage of unmanned landing platform, or “drone- Star Space Data, which plans to provide the first A380 flight and other ship,” at sea. The stage toppled when it hyperspectral Earth-observation and momentous events at: touched down with too much horizontal space-debris tracking services in low AviationWeek.com/100 velocity after the April 14 launch of Earth orbit.

14 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/APRIL 27-MAY 10, 2015 AviationWeek.com/awst Up Front By Steven Grundman Contributing columnist Steven Grundman is the principal of Grundman Advisory and Lund Fellow at the Atlantic Council.

COMMENTARY will need to discern the most problematic military challenges adversaries present and, in turn, the comparative advantages Defense Offset Strategy from which our society can gain leverage. At Carlisle, Work proffered a three- pronged challenge confronting U.S. Needs a Big Idea military forces: The proliferation of precision munitions amplified via an t seems clears what is foremost for Deputy Defense Secre- “informationalized” operating concept and employed by a diversity of fighting Itary Robert Work these days. At the Pentagon’s April 9 press formations. Sharpening that formula- conference endorsing “Better Buying Power 3.0,” Work said the tion into a problem statement as com- impetus for his new “offset strategy” is an urgent concern about pelling as the ones “Ike” and Bill Perry had would go a long way toward focus- “a steady erosion of our technological superiority that we have ing the work of the initiative, which relied upon for so long in all our defense strategies.” today seems diffused across a too-broad range of objectives. Unhelpfully, Work The day before, he now speaks of not one but several offset had implored students strategies encompassing a multitude of and staff at the Army potential competitors, each of which is War College in Carlisle, “probably going to require a different Pennsylvania to join the approach and a different strategy.” initiative’s modernization More important, realizing an effec- campaign “to identify the tive new offset strategy also will require technologies, identify the a new understanding of the sources of operational and organi- America’s comparative advantage in U.S. INSTITUTE OF PEACE U.S. DEFENSE DEPARTMENT zational constructs . . . to the 21st century. The initiative seems to fight our future adversaries.” superiority without bankrupting the assume that decisive advantages in the The time is surely right for the Pen- West, the New Look traded manpower two strategies to offset Soviet military tagon to focus its attention on retooling for nuclear warheads and their delivery power—superior economic and techno- military capabilities. The counterin- systems, in which the U.S. enjoyed a logical resources—can be relied upon surgency wars in Iraq and Afghanistan decisive technological advantage. again. They cannot: Economic power have, of necessity, imbalanced our By the mid-1970s, when the Soviets’ is today broadly distributed and most forces’ readiness for other kinds of development of nuclear weapons and advanced technologies are accessible conflict. And the flat outlook for U.S. de- adaptation of conventional forces again around the globe. fense spending will continue to impose called into question the credibility If the U.S.’s economic and techno- trade-offs that test priorities. But the of European defenses, then-Defense logical resources are no longer truly occasion for this initiative also arises Secretary Harold Brown initiated what discriminating, where will we find the from historical changes within the are- came to be regarded as the second leverage needed to fuel the strategy? nas of economics and technology. And offset strategy. The result—clearly Will the third offset strategy mark a while there is plainly an appreciation of expressed in the Long-Range Research revolution in military adaptation that how the distribution of economic power and Development Planning Program leverages our society’s nearly unique and diffusion of technologic know-how (LRRDP) run from William Perry’s capacity to absorb and prosper from is transforming the threat, too little is (center photo) directorate for research change? Will it harness our dominant being said about how these factors also and engineering—set out to achieve media and entertainment industries will shape the particular leverage the decisive military advantage by using to overmatch adversaries’ attempts to U.S. and the West can employ to offset precision-guided weapons orchestrated command the narrative of conflict? Or adversaries’ comparative advantages. through a network of command, con- will the third offset strategy be remem- Simply put, I believe our reflex to gain trol, communications and intelligence. bered as a revolution in operating and that leverage from yet another techno- New Look marked a lethality revolu- organizational constructs that exploits logical revolution is misguided. tion in U.S. defense planning, and the the American propensity for business- By invoking the term “offset strategy,” LRRDP is credited with instigating a model innovations that build “blue Work is harkening to two historical precision revolution that has differenti- oceans” of uncontested market space? precedents. In 1954, President Dwight D. ated U.S. military capabilities from These are the big ideas at the heart Eisenhower (left photo) announced the the Persian Gulf war in 1991 through of the problem facing the Pentagon’s results of a “New Look” at U.S. force pos- today. So what kind of revolution in U.S. offset strategists; let us hope they are ture in Europe, where the Warsaw Pact military capabilities will Bob Work’s addressed before simply trying again to enjoyed an overwhelming advantage of (right photo) turn of the offset strategy invent our way to sustaining U.S. mili- conventional forces. To counter Soviet produce? To answer that, the Pentagon tary dominance into the 21st century. c

AviationWeek.com/awst AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/APRIL 27-MAY 10, 2015 15 Going Concerns By Michael Bruno Senior Business Editor Michael Bruno blogs at: AviationWeek.com/ares [email protected]

COMMENTARY conducted by defense companies as an allowable overhead expense is spent ev- ery year, according to the department. Do Your Research While such new requirements might seem onerous, remember that the whole technology push represents an In Pentagon’s push for industry R&D, opportunity to industry. The Third Offset strategy looks to develop robotics, ‘I don’t know’ risks becoming ‘I told you so’ autonomous systems, big data and ad- vanced manufacturing, and other “next- .S. department store pioneer John Wanamaker allegedly generation” technologies. The question Uonce lamented that half the money he spent on advertising becomes who takes advantage of this was wasted, the problem was he didn’t know which half. opening: “disruptive” companies like Amazon and Google, heritage primes For years now in aerospace and like Boeing and Lockheed Martin, or defense, industry seemed to be saying international companies to be named? the same thing when it came to its own For the primes, at least, a course independent research and development (IRAD) spending. The solution, unfor- Frank Kendall, the undersecretary of tunately, has been simply to cut back defense for aquisition, technology on it and to focus most of its internal and logistics, wants your R&D. R&D eyed for government contracts on merely cutting the prices of their prod- correction is necessary first—and the ucts to win awards (see Top-Performing Pentagon is not immune either. Companies articles on pages 42-50). U.S. DEFENSE DEPARTMENT “It is expected that the defense Companies might have been able to technology and more to do with fixing industry would have business oppor- get by in this fashion since the end of the the widely described broken defense tunities to research, develop and field Cold War, but analysts and observers acquisition system. Now comes BBP these technologies should there be a are increasingly seeing the potential for 3.0, along with the so-called Third Off- business case and projected return on a major change to industry later in this set strategy and a soon-to-be-revealed investment,” consulting firm Deloitte— decade, and those who know are talking Long-range R&D Plan. While officials a TPC participant—says in its global about where to look for clues. A big one like Defense Secretary Ashton Carter A&D forecast this month. “However, stems from the Pentagon’s recently final- and defense acquisition czar Frank with both the Pentagon, as well as ized Better Buying Power 3.0 acquisition Kendall have only just begun their company funded R&D in a long-term policy and outreach to nontraditional road trips to explain what they hope decline, the investments and funding providers, as well as the consequences it to achieve, the new policies appear to required for development may slow may—or may not—bring. have the potential to be felt. down this well-intended strategy.” “From our Washington perspective, For instance, under BBP 3.0 defense For sure, other issues such as intel- we have not believed that consensus ap- contractors will have to notify and seek lectual property rights and ownership preciates how shifting Defense Depart- the endorsement of a Defense Depart- also will have to be worked out, accord- ment concerns could impact defense ment official regarding some of their ing to several analysts. And above all, contractor valuation and financials in IRAD. Kendall told reporters this month the customer must become dramatically 2016-18,” says TPC adviser Byron Callan, that the requirement will be “minimum,” quicker in sourcing and applying new a director at Capital Alpha Partners. and essentially involves finding someone technology and using other innovations. With apologies to Ernest Hemingway, in the department to agree to a com- “The focus on technology is welcomed one reason the “consensus” may not be pany’s plan. But it nevertheless reflects by many in industry, but there are also appreciating it yet is that change can a desire by Pentagon officials to reassert a number of firms working on technolo- come “gradually, then suddenly.” The influence over industry’s IRAD after gies, such as robotics, that are currently Pentagon has openly expressed concern acquisition reforms in the early 1990s not particularly interested in working about losing U.S. military technological loosened reins, with many companies with the Defense Department,” says An- superiority to the likes of China, Russia focusing their spending on ways to stay drew Hunter, director of the Defense-In- and others since at least late 2013. At competitive or dominant, and not on dustrial Initiatives Group at the Center the time, America was still caught up technological advances for the military. for Strategic and International Studies. in getting to know “sequestration” and The Pentagon will use powers al- “If the Pentagon wants to sustain the political gridlock that shut down the ready on the books to do this. Contrac- U.S. technological superiority in the government. Complaints about R&D tor IRAD—separate from government- 21st century,” he adds, “it will need to spending might have been lost in noise. funded research—can be expensed to invest in building a culture of innova- Also, the first two iterations of Bet- the department as a reimbursable cost tion and experimentation and [to] ter Buying Power had little to do with to a degree. Around $4 billion in IRAD deploy new technologies faster.” c

16 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/APRIL 27-MAY 10, 2015 AviationWeek.com/awst Inside Business Aviation By William Garvey Business & Commercial Aviation Editor-in-Chief William Garvey blogs at: AviationWeek.com [email protected]

COMMENTARY aircraft’s “historical significance, rar- ity, style and performance,” Hang “will own a truly unique aircraft when it’s Eagle Arising finished and flying again.” c

HIGHLIGHTING HAZARDS Pioneer for the sad and the successful that followed What’s the most common type of ac- cident in business aviation? According hen the subject turns to all-composite production to the National Business Aviation As- W airplanes, several makes and models come to the fore: sociation’s (NBAA) Safety Committee, Boeing’s 787 Dreamliner, the Cirrus SR20/22, Cessna’s sporty it’s the “runway excursion,” a term for an aircraft running off the runway end TTx, Austria’s Diamond Aircraft line, the ill-starred Beech or side and into uncharted territory. Starship and Bombardier’s $1.4 billion balk, the Learjet 85. What These sometimes deadly events oc- rarely enters that discussion is the very first of the kind, the cur during takeoff or landing and can involve any number of factors, from Windecker Eagle 1. Until now. an unstable approach to ice or snow on the runway to a mechanical fault. The Eagle can trace its genesis to In May 2014, a Gulfstream IV overran the 1950s and the Lake Jackson, Texas, the runway end at Hanscom Field near dental chair of Leo “Doc” Windecker, Boston during a rejected takeoff, and whose patients included workers from in the subsequent crash, both pilots, a the local Dow Chemical plant. Through flight attendant and four passengers casual discussions with them he INC. RESOURCES, COMMUNICATION were killed and the aircraft destroyed. learned that Dow was developing glass Despite efforts to reduce the rate, fiber material that was lightweight but the committee says the frequency strong, flexible and didn’t corrode. A Eagle 1 with new engine and prop. of runway excursion accidents has pilot and irrepressible tinkerer, Win- changed little over the past decade, not- decker thought those properties would But just as the Windeckers began ing the rate has S CHARBONNEAU be ideal for airplane construction. manufacturing the aircraft, a recession hovered around In 1958, together with his dentist- hit and the light airplane business went 3.6 per million wife, Fairfax, he began researching into lockdown. Having already spent flights. That’s fiberglass-reinforced plastic structures $20 million and unable to secure further 60% higher than and soon had enlisted the support of financing, Windecker closed its doors the correspond- Dow. Ultimately, they won a patent for after building just nine airplanes, includ- ing commercial a flexible, non-woven epoxy glass fiber ing the two prototypes and one deliv- aviation rate. they christened “Fibaloy.” Encour- ered to the U.S. Air Force, which wanted Runway aged by further experimentation, the to test its stealth characteristics. excursions are couple formed Windecker Research in Only two airframes, both unflyable, often survivable Steve Charbonneau Midland, with the express purpose of remained in private hands—those of and preventable, building and certifying an airplane. Windecker’s son, Ted. Not long ago he based on well-identified risk factors, air- What evolved was a sleek, four- transferred ownership to Wei Hang, a craft performance considerations and place, low-wing monoplane powered Chinese entrepreneur determined to recommended defenses, which makes by a single 285-hp Continental engine, see the Eagle soar again. At the mo- the mishaps a logical target of a focused which began flight-testing in early ment, a restoration team in Mooresville, risk-reduction effort, the NBAA says. 1969. Since the FAA had no experience North Carolina, is using elements from Consequently, the committee has with composite airframes and engines, the two aircraft plus a new engine, identified runway excursions as one the agency imposed an overdesign avionics package, interior and prop to of its two primary safety issues for requirement of 20% on it. And when create a single flyable one, albeit with the year. The other is loss of control in the aircraft went into a flat spin due an Experimental license. The goal is to flight, cited as a possible factor in over to improper weight distribution and have it ready for this summer’s AirVen- 40% of fixed-wing general aviation acci- crashed during its final spin test—the ture in Oshkosh, Wisconsin. dents from 2001-11, many involving non- pilot bailed out successfully—the After that, Hang will have the Eagle professional, single-pilot operations. agency then insisted the subsequently shipped to China, where he intends to Safety Committee Chairman Steve modified design undergo exhaustive learn to fly. While the airframes’ acqui- Charbonneau says today’s congested spin testing. Finally satisfied with the sition, together with the restoration airspace, complex procedures and design and construction, in December and upgrade, represent a formidable the intensity of voice communications 1969 the agency awarded the Eagle I a investment in a failed machine, project invite task saturation and distractions type certificate, the first under FAR23. chief Don Atchison says because of the in single- and two-pilot cockpits. c

AviationWeek.com/awst AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/APRIL 27-MAY 10, 2015 17 Airline Intel By Jens Flottau Managing Editor for Civil Aviation Jens Flottau blogs at: AviationWeek.com/thingswithwings Jens.fl[email protected]

COMMENTARY benefit—since the UAE dirham is tied to the dollar—but are also hit by weaker Asian currencies and the Caution Warranted weaker euro. And neither Emirates nor Etihad has a domestic network that will be able to balance out what is The higher value of the U.S. dollar is changing internationally. And so on. reemerging as a major factor in air transport But let’s not forget what a persis- tently higher-value dollar could mean decade ago and before the big round of mergers, “inter- for the two big aircraft manufactur- ers, Boeing and Airbus. Once Airbus A national” used to be the magic word for U.S. airlines. It Group’s currency hedges expire in the seemed to open up an opportunity for growth despite the ma- next one to two years, the company will ture domestic market, and the weak dollar was seen as a plus. benefit. It is selling most of its aircraft in dollars, yet in spite of efforts over But times have changed. The capacity reductions across its several years to put more manufac- international network announced by Delta Air Lines as it pre- turing into dollar-based economies sented first-quarter earnings are pretty substantial: Up to 20% (assuming that currency’s continued weakness), a huge part of its produc- fewer seats to Japan, 15% less to Brazil and up to 25% fewer to tion remains in Europe. The revenues the Middle East, Africa and India. generated in dollars through aircraft

JOEPRIESAVIATION.NET sales will therefore Delta’s decision may have been radi- be worth more, cal, since its profits are still healthy. even when higher If Delta is hurting on its international dollar-based pay- routes, then so are United and Ameri- ments to interna- can, the other two U.S. airlines that tional suppliers are have significant international expo- taken into account. sure. Southwest, JetBlue and Alaska The question is have less to fear in that regard. how Airbus will The move illustrates that the ongo- use this future ad- ing debate about the recent boom in vantage. It could aircraft orders, the growth in capac- be tempted to ity and the still relatively slow pace of buy more market retirements has not gone far enough. share, because The discussion about the huge demand it can now more for aircraft and whether or not an order easily afford to bubble has built up has emerged only offer discounts in because interest rates have plunged and Delta is retiring a further six Boeing 747-400s this year key campaigns the price of fuel had been high. Interest as it reduces capacity in several international markets. that it does not rates are still low, making borrowing want Boeing to affordable even for airlines with weaker of fuel because it is priced in U.S. win and those discounts will hurt its balance sheets. But after the recent dollars. But for European airlines, the bottom line much less. Therein lies drop in oil prices, the rise of the dollar more expensive dollar eats up a lot of a risk for Boeing that should not be back to where it was 15 years ago is the the cost savings they could in theory underestimated, but there is a risk to second major underlying factor for the have expected from the oil price drop. the industry as a whole as well. air transport industry that has changed Delta sees an impact internationally Many analysts have been warning for substantially in recent months. because revenues generated in foreign a long time that the numbers of aircraft The impact of a stronger dollar will currencies are worth less at home, but that airlines have been ordering for sev- differ greatly from carrier to carrier it still has a huge domestic network eral years—based on the assumptions and region to region. Like lower oil that is unaffected. of ongoing low interest rates, high fuel prices, it will only be felt over time, as European airlines see the opposite prices and a weak dollar—have simply previous currency hedges expire, and effect wherever they generate U.S.- been too high. It is probably too soon will only have a structural influence on dollar revenues, but the impact will to tell how exactly these dynamics will the industry if the dollar remains stron- still be mixed, because travel to the change, but with two major parameters ger vis-a-vis other leading currencies, U.S. is now a lot more expensive for driving industry performance having like the euro or the Japanese yen. Europeans and fewer will be able to swung so dramatically in a short period For example, a large U.S. airline afford it. Carriers in the United Arab of time, the industry would do well to only benefits fully from the low price Emirates (UAE) will see the fuel price exercise caution, as Delta has done. c

18 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/APRIL 27-MAY 10, 2015 AviationWeek.com/awst Leading Edge By Graham Warwick Managing Editor-Technology Graham Warwick blogs at: AviationWeek.com [email protected]

COMMENTARY is demonstrating “a relatively cheap unmanned surface vessel to track their expensive submarines,” says Steve Sea State of the Art Walker, Darpa deputy director. “We are in Phase 3 and will test a 130-ft.- long system in the next year. The Navy From overwhelming defenses to following will do sea trials in the fall.” Leidos is prime contractor. submarines, autonomy could reshape naval ops Darpa, meanwhile, is working to exploit autonomous technology to add he U.S. Navy may be struggling to get its signature flexibility and resilience to maritime Tcarrier-launched surveillance and strike unmanned-aircraft systems in other ways. One of those is the Upward Falling Payloads (UFP) program off the ground, but it has more than one autonomous program to develop a globally distrib- card in its maritime deck. From long-endurance air vehicles uted undersea payload-dispensing flying from warships and architecture on the deep ocean floor. “Today the Navy puts capability on the swarming small UAVs ocean floor with submarines, but we overwhelming adver- would like to preposition capabilities saries, to long-duration that are available to be triggered when needed,” says Walker. unmanned undersea and The UFP concept involves a distrib- surface vessels, the Office uted system of deployable unmanned of Naval Research (ONR) and nonlethal nodes that would lie on the ocean floor in special containers for is pushing to prepare au- years at time. When remotely activat- tonomous technologies ed, the nodes would rise to the surface for the fleet. DARPA CONCEPT to deploy their payloads, which could include unmanned aircraft. “We are The Low-Cost UAV Swarming Tech- and other warships. Now in Phase 2, in Phase 2. This year, we will take the nology (Locust) program will demon- AeroVironment and Northrop Grum- technologies into the water. In Phase 3, strate the rapid launch of 30 disposable man are each designing vertical-lift we will integrate them into a capability small air vehicles to autonomously unmanned aircraft (pictured). One is and also show what is possible with a come together and perform a mission. to be selected for Phase 3 to build a distributed architecture,” he says. The goal is to show that swarming full-scale demonstrator for land-based To support the emergence of these UAVs can defeat an adversary more and at-sea testing. new autonomous and persistent cost-effectively than other weapon In the undersea domain, ONR has capabilities, Winter says ONR plans to systems. The demos, using Raytheon’s completed missions exceeding 30 start a new prototype program in fiscal Coyote tube-launched small UAV, will days with its Large Displacement 2016, the Forward Deployed Energy take place from ONR’s Sea Fighter Unmanned Undersea Vehicle (Lduuv) and Communications Outpost. This technology-demonstrator vessel off the prototype. An open-ocean demo is will be an undersea constellation to Florida coast in fiscal 2016-17. planned for May 2016 in which the provide communications, resupply, re- Last August, in a demo on the autonomous submersible will sail charging and other services to support James River in Virginia, ONR showed from San Francisco to San Diego, says submarines and unmanned surface, that swarming small unmanned sur- Winter. In an early example of ONR undersea and air vehicles, and that will face vessels could overwhelm a hostile unmanned technology transition- be able to operate when space assets vessel. The technology involves a ing to the Navy, a program of record and airspace are denied. transportable kit that can be installed is to be started in fiscal 2016, with a “We are working to develop an on almost any boat. Locust is part of production Lduuv planned to become autonomous environment, not just a an effort to demonstrate autonomy operational by 2020. vehicle or a system,” he says. “Au- technologies that can be applied A new program, the Medium tonomy brings in the technology of across surface, undersea and air Displacement Unmanned Surface algorithms, software and processing, domains, says Rear Adm. Mat Winter, Vehicle (Mdusv), “will be to autono- but also the humanistic side. We need chief of naval research. mous surface vessels what Lduuv will to understand how humans make ONR also has partnered with Darpa be to undersea autonomy,” says ONR. decisions so that in 20-30 years we can on the Tern program to demonstrate a Mdusv is planned to operate with the have an autonomous environment in Predator-class medium-altitude, long- Anti-Submarine Warfare Continu- which the human is in a Barcalounger endurance UAV able to operate from ous Trail Unmanned Vessel (Actuv) and the unmanned system is providing the small flight decks of destroyers being developed with Darpa. Actuv persistent capabilities.” c

AviationWeek.com/awst AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/APRIL 27-MAY 10, 2015 19 Commander’s Intent By Bill Sweetman Read Sweetman’s posts on our blog Ares, updated daily: AviationWeek.com/ares [email protected]

COMMENTARY another partnership (Denel and Brazil’s Odebrecht are building the A-Darter short-range AAM) but neither Saab nor How To Build Fighters Odebrecht seems in a hurry to bite on an expensive option. It’s not the AAM that’s expensive, but the integration and As India stumbles, Brazil moves forward testing. Underlying these programmatic eing a ground-floor partner in the development of a fighter differences are divergent Indian and Baircraft is a very big deal for Brazil. This was clear at the Brazilian attitudes to the “defense LAAD defense show in Rio de Janeiro earlier this month, from trilemma”—a pick-any-two of autono- mous national development, affordabil- the long lines of showgoers waiting for a chance to pose in the ity and military capability, where no cockpit of Saab’s Gripen mock-up (photo), next to the all- or solution is optimal for all three goals. part-indigenous weapons under its wings or at the many “we’re- The cheapest way to equip forces is often direct import, softened with on-Gripen” exhibits around the hall. offsets or industrial participation. This is where the U.S. traditionally has pitched products. If you want autonomy, you either have to spend more (Japan is a good example, with its low-volume, high- tech weapons) or under-fulfill equipment needs, constrain operational require- ments or accept some risk over time. Brazil has taken a pragmatic ap- proach to the trilemma, exploiting a potentially large but risky loophole: the ability to recoup some of the cost of autonomy via exports. Both the BILL SWEETMAN/AW&ST Gripen and the Brazilian-built version Together with the equally ambitious signature, is sunk well past the axles in of the Scorpene submarine are seen as Prosub submarine project, Gripen is a swamp of bureaucracy and mistrust, potential export earners in the long run, swallowing much of Brazil’s acquisition and is on hold while Dassault delivers including aftermarket upgrades and budget, delaying other projects. But the 36 jets from its own factory. support. Where there is little export first 36 aircraft are expected to be fol- This difference is not a fluke. The potential, Brazil favors outright buys. lowed by about 70 more JAS 39E/Fs for Gripen is a simpler aircraft than the But “Made in India” has become the air force and Sea Gripens for two Rafale that pulls parts from a global sup- doctrine in New Delhi, accompanied planned new aircraft carriers in the late ply chain. But a lot of Rafale hardware is by laws restricting foreign investment 2020s. Brazil is leading development of unique; it is France-sourced in order to in defense companies. (AEL Sistemas the JAS 39F two-seater and would do be free from foreign control. Brazil’s Em- could not exist in India.) This has de- the same for the carrier jet. braer has been competing in the world layed the most straightforward deals— No other South American neighbor market for decades, unlike state-owned Pilatus, for instance, has had trouble builds fighters or submarines; they are Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd., which is the finding an indigenous company to build the first target export markets, mak- designated national leader on MMRCA. PC-7 trainers—and has consumed ing the projects a symbol of Brazil’s Dassault’s initial Indian plan may have time and money while failing to deliver leadership. been to build an all-new factory with its capability to the armed forces. The Gripen project is proceeding preferred partner, Reliance Industries, One reason for India’s problems is a methodically because neither side has but that was politically unacceptable. worldwide one: A program’s benefits are infinite money or manpower. It will be The longer schedule on the Gripen measured in jobs today, and strategy be the 2020s before a Gripen makes its project reduces risk, and nobody damned. Brazil’s priority, conversely, is maiden flight in Brazil. But the program is thinking yet about co-producing to acquire know-how when its trans- is on schedule, which is more than can complex subsystems like the radar and planted engineers (or at least those who be said for the Franco-Indian Medium engine. Brazil has an ambition to install survive the Swedish winter) return. Multi-Role Combat Aircraft (MMRCA). a new big-screen cockpit—from Elbit’s The Brazilian approach is not risk- Following a source selection almost local subsidiary, AEL Sistemas—but free. Surface warships and other weap- two years ahead of Brazil’s, the plan otherwise the configurations are similar. ons will grow older until the Gripen and to deliver 126 Rafales to the Indian South Africa’s Denel was at LAAD Prosub are out of the development stage, air force, with the Indian line deliver- with its new Marlin medium-range and it’s early to talk about export sales. ing aircraft four years after contract air-to-air missile, possibly looking for But so far, it’s Advantage Brazil. c

20 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/APRIL 27-MAY 10, 2015 AviationWeek.com/awst Reality Check By Pierre Sparaco Former Paris Bureau Chief Pierre Sparaco has covered aviation and aerospace since the 1960s.

COMMENTARY received a €1.2 ($1.29) dividend, a 60% increase over 2013. Given the robustness in the rest of Airbus’s portfolio, time and circum- Too Little, Too Late? stances render the idea of an all-new aircraft nonviable. Moreover, traffic is Airbus clings to idea of a souped-up A330 expected to further grow an average of but the marketplace seems to say otherwise 5% per year over the next two decades, reinforcing predictions of a brilliant irbus is aggressively pressing its case for the revamped future. Last year, Airbus secured 1,456 net orders and delivered 629. In other AA330. The European manufacturer is pitching the aircraft words, it sells twice as many aircraft as the most utilitarian and competitive long-range twin avail- than it produces. Most probably, no able, although most industry observers believe it can only be a other industry segment is performing as well. stopgap. The true question is whether the time has come for an Actually, the issue is significantly all-new aircraft that incorporates the latest advances in engines broader and sheds light on Airbus instead of relaunching the long-range, aging twin. Group’s targets. Is enhanced profit- ability the ultimate goal, in contrast with previous years? It has not been stated clearly before. The Airbus- Boeing duopoly continues to thrive; each of the rivals boasts a 50% share. BRUSSELS AIRLINES However, the European manufacturer does have problems. The A380 mega- transport has not sold well, or reached its financial breakeven point nearly 15 years after its go-ahead (317 orders, 192 deliveries). The backlog stands at no more than 165, and the production rate remains a disappointing 2-3 aircraft per month. Early predictions did not take shape. In the late 1990s, Airbus was convinced the number of mega-cities would increase to 71 in 2023 and to 91 in Brussels Airlines uses its A330-200s and -300s to service its African and 2033, confirming the need for a greater- American destinations. capacity aircraft. This is not today’s More than 1,500 A330s have now frames to remain profitable in the face demographic reality; although cities are been sold and are expected to be of increasingly low fares, including becoming larger, this has not translated succeeded by the neo version. But the on the medium-haul route system. A into more demand for the A380. going has been slow. recent neologism—“fifth class”—could In contrast with the A380’s semi- Despite an apparently strong debut apply to high-density cabin arrange- failure—it has few new sales prospects backed by so-called launch customers, ments. The traveling public is already in sight—the A350XWB has done well, new clients are rare: 135 firm orders, dissatisfied with seat comfort and will posting 780 orders secured by 40 cus- including AirAsia (55) and Delta Air certainly dislike the idea of further tomer airlines. The program launched Lines (25). The list price is an attrac- constraint, although the airlines are late and was able to benefit from les- tive $275 million and fuel consumption touting the difference in comfort as sons learned from the multiple techni- reportedly is as much as 14% below its “negligible.” cal difficulties that beset Boeing’s 787. predecessor’s. But the A330neo could At this point, no “superneo” is in Ironically, an improved A330—origi- well be a niche product; various sourc- sight and Airbus is clearly not ready nally proposed as a response to the 787 es have projected sales of no more to invest $10-15 billion in an all-new years ago and long superseded by the than 500-550 aircraft over the next 20 long-range commercial transport. The A350—was close to today’s A330neo. years. Range has been increased by European manufacturer’s top priority The battle, more than ever, remains 740 km (460 mi.), but does the market is obviously to increase its profitability between Airbus’s A320-series range require such an improvement? After well above its current level, making and Boeing’s MAX. Their combined all, we are talking about the middle of the best possible use of its record production rate is nearly 50 aircraft per the market. 6,386-aircraft backlog, an industry month, a formidable challenge for the Today almost all airlines are opting record. Revenue last year increased aerospace community, especially the to install more seats in existing air- to $174.6 billion, and its shareholders American-European supply chain. c

AviationWeek.com/awst AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/APRIL 27-MAY 10, 2015 21 In Orbit By Frank Morring, Jr. Senior Editor Frank Morring, Jr., blogs at: AviationWeek.com/onspace [email protected]

COMMENTARY dependent research and development effort have scored “in the high 90s” in tests to failure, compared to tanks Additive Affordability machined from forged billets, which Little terms “pretty darned good, and Space industry pushes manufacturing innovation probably good enough.” Any shortfall can be covered by adding thickness to to hold down costs the tank walls, he says. SpaceX uses laser-sintering AM to COLORADO SPRINGS—Peter Beck make impellers and other parts for the flew here from New Zealand Merlin engines that drive its Falcon 9 launch vehicle, which is now in the with a rocket engine in his process of being certificated for human luggage. The tiny powerplant, spaceflight under a NASA Commercial dubbed Rutherford, drew a lot Crew Transportation Capability con- tract. Aerojet Rocketdyne (AJR) is us- of interest at the annual Space ing the same technique, applying some Symposium with its battery- “engineering rigor” to ensure the re- powered turbomachinery. More FRANK MORRING, JR./AW&ST sulting engine parts have performance comparable to parts produced with the to the point was the low launch cost—less than $5 million to orbit traditional subtractive machining. —that Beck’s Rocket Lab company promised for the Electron “In general, we’re using it across the smallsat launcher it will power with the Rutherford (see p. 51). board on traditional products to bring the cost down for those types of geom- One key feature of the tiny engine turn metal powders into brackets and etries that lend themselves to it, and was almost a throwaway. The regen- other parts, Lockheed Martin Space then we’re also exploring what type of eratively cooled Rutherford was built Systems Co. hopes to cut the time to new products you can build, because it using additive manufacturing (AM), manufacture a satellite from as long as is a very different way of building and essentially 3-D-printed in Inconel and 48 months to 18, according to Dennis thinking about things,” says Julie Van titanium. As the traditional government Little, vice president for production. Kleeck, the company’s vice president customers for space vehicles see their “If you’re going to build a titanium of advanced space and launch systems. budgets flatten or shrink, industry is tank for a satellite that we currently Given the high speeds and pressures taking a deep dive into AM to keep its build, you have to buy a billet of forged and low temperatures that rocket products competitive in an increasingly titanium, and the latent time is 14 to engine parts must withstand, materi- commercial marketplace. 18 months to get it from the supplier, als properties of parts produced with That includes companies that have and then you have to machine it down AM are particularly important. An traditionally counted governments as to its final geometry,” Little says. “This engineer may be able to design a part their only customers as well as more- machine, the Sciaky, lays it up bead by for additive production that would entrepreneurial startups like Rocket bead, and then you machine it to the fi- be impossible to create with tradi- Lab and Space Exploration Technolo- nal thickness, and you have two spheres tional machining, but it still must meet gies (SpaceX). and probably a barrel section for the fatigue and hydrogen-embrittlement Aerojet Rocketdyne (AJR) is using final tank geometry. So you get a tank specifications before it can fly. the technology to speed development for a small satellite, machined in three The results are starting to pay of the AR-1 engine it is proposing as a pieces, and within a week’s time.” off, according to Linda Cova, execu- replacement for the Russian RD-180 on Lockheed Martin engineers worked tive director of hydrocarbon engine the Atlas V. Lockheed Martin has been with Sciaky to design the satellite-tank programs at AJR. Some of the AM- studying large-scale AM for the F-35 AM tool, which uses an electron beam generated parts have enough fidelity to warplane for about a decade, and is mov- in vacuum to melt the titanium wire their designs that they can be hot fired ing the technology into spacecraft with a and lay it up onto the spinning article without additional finishing, she says. new $6 million AM center near Denver. (photo). It already has produced 35-in. “We’ve learned a lot about the prop- Of that sum, more than $4 million tanks, and is moving on to 40-in. and ul- erties that you can actually get, and went to buy a “Direct Manufacturing” timately 48-in. tanks. The hardware will what influences the properties,” Cova system from Sciaky Inc., the Chicago- go into the company’s A2100 satellite- says. “Is it the size of the powder? based aerospace supplier that turned bus “technology refresh” already under- There are so many different elements its expertise in electron-beam welding way, and perhaps the planned Jupiter that go into it, so we spend a lot of time into large-scale AM tools. Using the space tug in contention for NASA’s understanding that, so we know when Sciaky system to build spacecraft-pro- next International Space Station cargo we’re done we have a part that’s reli- pellant tanks from titanium wire, as resupply service contract (CRS-2). able, repeatable and clearly [has] the well as laser-sintering techniques that To date, tanks produced in the in- benefit of shorter schedule.” c

22 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/APRIL 27-MAY 10, 2015 AviationWeek.com/awst The fighter they send to the front.

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AVIATION WEEK NETWORK Washington Outlook Edited by Jen DiMascio Managing Editor-Defense, Space & Security Jen DiMascio blogs at: AviationWeek.com/ares [email protected]

COMMENTARY CONTROLLED SUPPORT The leader of the union representing air traffic controllers (ATC) has joined a chorus of support for moving air traffic Give and Take operations out of the FAA’s purview— with some conditions. Any new system House panel recommends adding dollars for must be spared the kind of stop-and- start funding provided by Congress and F-35B JSF and F/A-18F Super Hornet should not make a profit, National Air Traffic Controllers Association Presi- he first draft of a defense policy bill working its way through dent Paul Rinaldi recently told the Aero TCongress is likely to include additional money for F-35B and Club in Washington. And while many F/A-18F combat aircraft. The question is how much. The House point to Canada’s private ATC system as a model, Rinaldi cautions that the Armed Services Committee, which considers the legislation U.S.’s neighbor has far less air traffic to April 29, will decide on a subcommittee request to address at control. “I don’t know if it’s scalable,” he least some of the Navy and Marine Corps requests for “unfund- says. “I’m willing to roll up my sleeves and see.” Congress is already pursuing ed requirements.” The draft does not specify how many aircraft a revamped FAA as it begins building a CQ ROLL CALL/NEWSCOM the legislation would include. The reauthorization bill to set policy for the Chief of Naval Operations has asked flight safety agency to replace legisla- for an additional 12 Super Hornets and tion that expires in September. Rep. eight F-35Cs, plus another six F-35Bs John Mica (R-Fla.), former chairman of for the Marines, if Congress could fund the House Transportation and Infra- the overall budget request put forward structure Committee, has a proposal in February. Along with the author- that would establish an employee stock ity to buy additional fighters, Rep. ownership corporation for air traffic Michael Turner (R-Ohio), who leads controllers that would take over the the subcommittee in charge of tactical nation’s ATC operations and implement aircraft, is staying true to his pledge to NextGen ATM. c maintain oversight of the Pentagon’s most costly weapons program. The bill ‘It is not an attempt to bring PRIMING THE PUMP will ask for an independent report on Since 2009, large aerospace compa- details of the F135 engine problem that back the alternate engine.’ nies worldwide have been working grounded the F-35 fleet last summer. —REP. MICHAEL TURNER with spacefaring governments on But Turner says there are no plans to collaborative road maps for exploring revive a second engine scuttled in 2011. space beyond low Earth orbit. While “It is not an attempt to bring back tion strategy for Uclass along with its the approach ultimately followed by an the alternate engine,” he avers. The fiscal 2017 budget request. Not content international partnership patterned on bill also asks for another independent to wait, the House Armed Services today’s space station is far from clear, report on the progress of the F-35’s seapower subcommittee is asking for the collaboration is proving beneficial to Automated Logistics Information Sys- quicker feedback from the Pentagon. If all, according to one participant. “It’s an tem, which lawmakers recently learned the draft of the panel’s addition to the interesting dynamic because all of the produces a false positive reading 80% of fiscal 2016 defense policy bill becomes companies are in some sense competi- the time. c law, the Defense Department would tors, but we also recognized that it’s in have to provide cost and schedule es- the best interest of everybody if we can PERSISTENT SURVEILLANCE timates for Uclass to Congress during create [opportunity],” says Josh Hop- As the X-47B unmanned aerial vehicle, the peak of the Pentagon’s budget plan- kins, Lockheed Martin’s space explora- the first UAV to take off and land from ning season—Sept. 1, 2015. Rep. Randy tion architect. “If nothing gets built, an aircraft carrier, wraps up its final Forbes (R-Va.), the panel’s chairman, there’s nothing for us to compete for.” planned demonstrations (see page 12), and others in Congress are advocating Other companies working on the project the follow-on Unmanned Carrier- for Uclass to have a deep-penetrating- include Boeing; Airbus Defense and Launched Airborne Surveillance and strike capability and emphasize that it Space and Thales Alenia Space from Strike (Uclass) program will remain cannot be just a sophisticated intelli- Europe; Canada’s MacDonald, Dettwiler under review at the Pentagon until gence, surveillance and reconnaissance and Associates; Mitsubishi Heavy this summer. It is also being closely platform. “If we make the wrong deci- Industries of Japan, and Russia’s RSC watched by Congress. Last year, law- sion on Uclass, I am confident we will Energia. “There’s enough specialization makers directed the Defense Depart- regret this decision for many years,” that we can each see a niche or a role for ment to deliver a report on an acquisi- Forbes says. c our companies,” Hopkins says. c

AviationWeek.com/awst AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/APRIL 27-MAY 10, 2015 25 DEFENSE

traffi c control (ATC) in other parts of Europe responding to uncooperative Baltic traffi c in their airspace. On several occasions, controllers working the airspace around the U.K. Encounters have been forced to divert traffic around the expected fl ightpaths of Rus- sian Tu-95 Bear bombers fl ying over the Non-contactable military aircraft are posing North Sea or around Ireland into the U.K.’s southwestern approaches. NATO a high risk to air safety in Europe’s busy skies fighters escorted the Tu-95s during Tony Osborne London their probing missions. At the same time, Russia accuses the oncerns about Russian aggression at Europe’s eastern- NATO powers of flying intelligence- most frontiers are usually a matter primarily for defense gathering missions in the Baltic with planners. But worries about the proximity of military air- transponders switched off . According to C recent statements from Russia’s mission craft to airliners fl ying along air routes in Europe’s busy inter- to NATO, the alliance is fl ying as many national airspace has prompted the European Aviation Safety as 8-12 missions in the immediate vicin- Agency (EASA) to examine how it can keep the two apart to ity of Russia’s borders each week. The mission also characterizes the accusa- prevent both a potentially serious accident and an escalation in tions of Russian military aircraft creat- an already tense geopolitical situation. ing risks for civil aviation as part of a “tendentious information campaign.” Over the last year, NATO has tried to published on April 15, says it has iden- “It is necessary to note that NATO deter what it sees as Russian belliger- tifi ed 15 additional instances in 2014, 13 states’ military aircraft always make ence and to allay the fears of its allies by of which were air-proximity incidents their fl ights near Russian borders with moving military forces—including fi ght- involving aircraft coming within 0.5 nm transponders turned off ,” Russian offi - er aircraft—further east. But this has of one another horizontally or 300 ft. cials said in January. “However, it does brought NATO and Russian aircraft of- vertically. Three of the occurrences not mean that they are invisible to air- ten into close proximity, especially over were airspace infringements. space control means.” the Baltic, a region of airspace used by Most recently, Russia has hundreds of fl ights each day, and made stated that a U.S. Air Force more complex because of the way air Data suggest the number of Boeing RC-135U Combat traffi c management (ATM) is shared by Sent it intercepted near the the countries that border it. non-cooperative military fl ights Kaliningrad Oblast had its EASA began investigating the issue transponder switched off. late last year after a request from the over the Baltic has at least The U.S. State Department European Commission on behalf of Eu- denied this and accused the ropean Union (EU) member states that tripled since 2012 Russian Su-27 pilot who had reported foreign aircraft operating intercepted the RC-135 of near their borders over the sea without fl ying in an “unsafe and un- transponders activated or filed flight EASA says 13 of the 16 incidents in- professional manner.” plans. The countries were also unable volved uncooperative military traffi c. It EASA says it would not be sensible to to make radio contact with the aircraft, recorded six more incidents in January take dramatic measures, such as mak- EASA says. and February of this year, compared ing the skies around the Baltic a no-fl y The problem came to international with just six such incidents in 2013. zone for European civil airlines, as this attention after Swedish authorities The agency says that calculating the would have “enormous economic con- confirmed that in March last year a number of non-cooperative military sequences.” Scandinavian Airlines Boeing 737 car- flights over the Baltic is a challenge But the presence of these military rying 132 passengers came within close because of the potential to count more fl ights is considered highly hazardous to proximity to a Russian reconnaissance than once fl ights that pass through dif- civil traffi c because civil ATC authorities aircraft, believed to be an Ilyushin Il-20 ferent information regions. However, are often unaware of them. The situation “Coot” over the Baltic Sea. the data suggest the number of non- could worsen, EASA notes, as forecasts The European Leadership Network, cooperative military flights over the suggest air traffic to the Baltic States a defense think tank, later classified Baltic has at least tripled since 2012, could increase by 50% between now and that incident as high-risk, stating that it EASA says. 2035, adding greater risk if the geopoliti- could have caused casualties and led to NATO fighters based in Lithuania cal environment has not improved. a direct military confrontation between and Estonia performed 150 intercep- “It needs to be recognized that it is Russia and Western states. tions during 2014, four times more than diffi cult to predict the evolution of the Although it does not name Russia as in 2013. These fi gures apply solely to the geopolitical situation and that this is be- the source of these fl ights in its inves- Baltic and do not include redirections of yond the control of civil aviation regula- tigation of the activity, EASA’s report, air traffi c undertaken tactically by air tors,” the report states.

26 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/APRIL 27-MAY 10, 2015 AviationWeek.com/awst Currently, the airspace above the implemented at the tactical level be- prove situational awareness for fl ight Baltic—at least above fl ight level 195 tween air defense and ATC units when crews, EASA notes. (19,500 ft.)—is classified as Class C scrambled aircraft become airborne for In several EU member states, per- airspace, which means that aircraft interceptions.” manent measures to reduce the risks accessing it should file a flight plan, The report states that primary sur- are being discussed, the report states, use two-way communications and have veillance radar detects only the rough including the technical feasibility for ci- their transponders switched on, allow- horizontal location of a target but not vilian ATC to view primary surveillance ing civilian ATC to see them. But with necessarily its height. Passing this data radar data. EASA says this data should non-cooperative military aircraft not on to surrounding aircraft as traffi c in- be provided to civil ATC agencies to the following these rules, EASA says miti- formation in their proximity would im- “maximum possible extent.” c gating measures are needed to bring risk to an acceptable level. The task is complicated, however, by the complex nature of the airspace around the Baltic, which is shared by several EU member states and has

four functional airspace blocks. The Baltic features a significant number of northern-to-southern traf- fi c fl ows, as well as eastern-to-western ones, EASA says. These issues make the situation more complex, as traffi c information about military aircraft can- not always be provided in a timely fash- ion to civil aircraft fl ying in the same narrow parts of the airspace. EASA advises member states to follow the International Civil Aviation Organization’s recommendations in its Circular 330 document, which suggest enhanced cooperation or interopera- bility between the ATM systems used by military and civilian agencies. This includes making the primary surveil- lance data from military radars acces- sible to civilian ATC units, something presently done only in a handful of EU states. “The Agency recommends that member states work closely together to further develop and harmonize con- crete civil/military coordination proce- dures for ATM [at the EU] level,” the report states. It adds that the informa- tion should be disseminated when non- cooperative traffi c is likely to be ying fl into diff erent area control centers. “Similar coordination has to be

The number of intercepts prompted by Russian military aircraft in international airspace increased markedly during 2014. Here a Russian air force Ilyushin Il-20 “Coot” is escorted by a Royal Norwegian Air Force F-16 over the Norwegian Sea.

ROYAL NORWEGIAN AIR FORCE AviationWeek.com/awst AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/APRIL 27-MAY 10, 2015 27 DEFENSE

a later phase of modernization that Warsaw’s New Pact also includes plans for a new attack helicopter under Project Kruk (Ra- Poland looks to Europe for helicopters and the U.S. ven) and potentially a fleet of heavy- lift helicopters. Polish officials say the for missile defense, but broader implications loom Kruk project has been accelerated as a Tony Osborne London result of the current security situation with Russia. oland has taken the next step tenance capability. Poland’s decision has dismayed toward modernizing its armed Warsaw’s selection of the Airbus Sikorsky, which currently builds and Pforces, but its selection of Air- Helicopters H225M Caracal from exports the S-70i International Black bus for its helicopters and Raytheon France raised eyebrows because the Hawk from its Mielec facility. The com- for its Patriot missile defense system company did not have a significant pany says its $3.3 billion offer—which may have wider effects. presence in Poland, unlike competi- also included S-70B Seahawks for the The Patriot choice may cast a tors AgustaWestland and Sikorsky. ASW mission—included having air- shadow over Lockheed Martin’s Me- But the French offer was a potent one. craft ready for delivery in 12 months. dium Extended Air Defense System With the backing of the Airbus Group, But Sikorsky has said it had con- (Meads), which was eliminated from the helicopter subsidiary will help the cerns about the program and was the Wisla (Vistula) project last June, parent company’s growth by making close to abandoning its bid late last but is now being offered for the me- Poland Airbus’s fifth European market, year. Company officials also have said dium-range Narew contest. The key potentially attracting billions of dollars Poland asked Sikorsky to offer the goal for Lockheed Martin is selection of new money over that offered by the S-92, which the company declined to of Meads in Germany’s Tactical Air competitors. do and continued to submit the S-70i. Defense System contest to replace France’s decision to suspend the sale It remains unclear what the company could do next, but former Sikor- sky President Mick Maurer told Aviation Week in March: “If you don’t have the host-country stamp approval on your prod- uct, it’s a tougher sell. Poland selected the Airbus Helicopters H225M over Sikorsky’s International Black Hawk and the AgustaWestland AW149.

“We aren’t going to do some- thing that’s spiteful, we could assemble [Black Hawks] almost anywhere.” In a statement on PZL- Mielec’s website, Sikorsky urged the Polish defense ministry to “reexamine” its decision. or upgrade its Patriots. Analysts of two Mistral amphibious assault ships For AgustaWestland, the Polish suggest Poland’s decision could well to Russia also may have played a part purchase represents the second major prompt Germany to decide to up- in the Airbus selection, as Warsaw was failure to sell the AW149, having come grade its Patriots. concerned about that deal. in second in Turkey to Sikorsky. Agus- Poland now plans to begin negotia- However, the program now may look taWestland said it was assessing the TONY OSBORNE/AW&ST tions with the U.S. government to buy less attractive to Airbus. Poland’s ini- decision of the Polish defense ministry eight Patriot batteries, with all the tial plan was to buy 70 helicopters to and determining its next steps. systems in service by 2025, although replace Russian-built rotorcraft cur- Poland will now carry out what it Warsaw says it wants a temporary de- rently performing the troop transport, calls verification checks on the Cara- fense capability with two batteries in search-and-rescue and antisubmarine- cal with testing in-country in May operation within three years of signing warfare (ASW) missions. But Warsaw and June. If successful, deliveries of the contract. may buy only 50 aircraft, which could H225Ms into Poland could begin in Raytheon already has contracts increase the in-country cost of assem- 2017, likely from the company’s pro- with Polish industry. Alongside inter- bly. Poland now plans to retain some duction line in France. Deliveries from governmental negotiations on deliv- of its Russian-built Mil Mi-17s into the an assembly line to be established at ery conditions, a series of offsets will next decade. Lodz-based Polish Military Aviation be discussed including technology It is unclear whether purchase of Works No. 1—known as WZL 1—would transfer, production work and main- the other 20 aircraft will reemerge in likely follow. c

28 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/APRIL 27-MAY 10, 2015 AviationWeek.com/awst The Indian market is Make in India a strategic priority for Airbus, with an estimated Despite problems, Airbus says India is willing order potential of 1,290 new aircraft through to take ‘modern’ approach to coproduction 2032, including 913 single-aisle jets.

due to Dassault’s refusal to accept liability for jets made by HAL. On April 13 Indian De- fense Minister Manohar JOEPRIESAVIATION.NET Parrikar categorically stated that “if India goes in for additional Rafale fighters, it will also be through government-to- government deals.” The 36 Amy Svitak Paris Rafales could be inducted into the Indian air force in as little as 18 months, he told the Hindustan Times. ew Delhi’s order of 36 Rafale combat jets stole the With the future of the MMRCA deal unclear, Lahoud says limelight during a recent Franco-Indian summit in Airbus is confi dent Modi has every intention of adopting a NParis, but a less high-profi le event has proved equally more modern approach to co-production. “We are an inter- noteworthy—Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit national company capable of producing anywhere,” Lahoud to Airbus facilities in Toulouse, where the aerospace giant says, adding that Airbus Group’s primary concerns include said it is ready to develop production and fi nal assembly lines the control it has over the value chain of the products it builds in the south Asian nation as part of New Delhi’s “Make in there. “On this point, Modi assured us that India has the India” push. intention to adopt a modern approach to this issue.” “India is a very complicated market, but a very impor- Following the visit, Airbus stated it is “willing to set up tant market for Airbus,” says the company’s chief strategist, fi nal assembly lines and establish supply chains and related Marwan Lahoud. infrastructure for military transport aircraft and helicopters” “In commercial aviation, Indian companies are good cus- in India, in full compliance with procurement policies and tomers to Airbus already, particularly the private Indian air- foreign direct investment requirements. lines; in military, we have a tender for MRTT tanker aircraft, Airbus Defense and Space said it has submitted a joint pro- transport aircraft and several hundred light helicopters,” posal with Tata to produce C295 aircraft in India to replace Lahoud told France’s BFM Radio in an interview following the aging Avro 748 transports of the Indian air force and is Modi’s April 11 visit to Toulouse. pitching the C295 for an Indian coast guard requirement for Airbus touts its leading position in India’s civil aviation transport aircraft. market, where nearly 800 aircraft have been ordered for de- The division also plans to develop and manufacture elec- livery over the next 10 years. He said 200 are already fl ying, tronic sensors with Indian partners and “has advanced dis- owing to an order of A320neo passenger jets from low-cost cussions to support Hindustan Aeronautics’ combat aircraft operator IndiGo, helping to give Airbus a 70% market share. programs.” Airbus gave Modi a tour of the A380 fi nal assembly line Airbus Helicopters is in discussions with Indian companies and a presentation on the company’s supply chain in India, on teaming arrangements for the Naval Utility Helicopter, the from which it purchased about $400 million in goods last Reconnaissance and Surveillance Helicopter and the Naval year from 40 Indian companies that combined employ more Multi-Role Helicopter competitions. than 5,000 people. In addition, Airbus said it stands ready to build large tele- Airbus currently operates two engineering centers in India communications satellites with Indian partners. Both sides for civil and defense activities, plus a research and technol- use each other’s launchers to put satellites in orbit. ogy center that employs more than 400 . The company said Although no contracts were announced during the visit, all of these centers could be expanded. Lahoud expects to see billions in contracts announced in the Modi, who visited France April 9-12, said a key objective of coming months. “We are going to build military equipment his visit was to foster Franco-Indian industrial cooperation, in India, that’s indisputable,” he says. particularly in defense. In the meantime, as head of France’s GIFAS aerospace However, the Indian premier gave Paris only partial sat- equipment supplier group, Lahoud said he welcomed Modi’s isfaction during the visit with an order for 36 Rafale combat request for 36 made-in-France Rafales, though said he was jets agreed to April 10, leaving in limbo a three-year-old disappointed that India has thus far shunned the Eurofi ghter negotiation between Dassault Aviation and Hindustan Aero- Typhoon, a rival combat jet built by a European consortium nautics Ltd. (HAL) to purchase 126 of the fi ghter aircraft, that includes Airbus. But he asserts the Rafale deal is not 108 of which were to have been made in India under the the death knell for the Typhoon. “It is used by four European nation’s Medium Multirole Combat Aircraft (MMRCA) air forces, and two export air forces, so we have 40 years of tender. The deal has been deadlocked for more than a year activity in front of us,” he says. c

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about that. At the same time we have real requirements for Living Space habitation in deep space, and there have been some com- monalities in that.” Private sector helping NASA To meet NASA’s stated goal of exploring Mars with hu- mans in the 2030s, planners envision spending the decade of study ways to stretch Orion the 2020s exploring cislunar space, “evolving” the systems it would take for astronauts to operate there for a few months Frank Morring, Jr. Washington into the spacecraft that would enable 1,000-day missions to the planet and perhaps its moons. he Orion multi-purpose crew vehicle is designed to take The planned Asteroid Redirect Mission (ARM) to move humans to Mars, but with less than 20 cubic meters a boulder from the surface of a near-Earth asteroid into a Tof pressurized volume for a crew of four it could get stable distant retrograde orbit (DRO) at the Moon would not more than a little cozy en route. Commercial cargo vehicles require a separate habitat. An early crew would live in their designed to supply the International Space Station (ISS) may Orion for three weeks while studying the sample in DRO. add some elbow-room for the long haul to the Red Planet. Instead, NASA foresees using DRO or one of the Earth-Moon Boeing, Lockheed Martin and Orbital ATK all have won Lagrangian points as a place to practice human operations small NASA contracts to study how their commercial cargo for as long as 60 days, and to push development of the hard- vehicles could be modifi ed as habitats for Orion crews in the ware that would be needed for Mars. exploration “proving ground” near the Moon. Bigelow Aero- “We’re looking at a modular approach where you have space, which has orbited two “expandable” habitat testbeds, commonality of the elements to minimize the number of and is scheduled to berth another one at the ISS this fall, is unique new elements that need to be built,” Crusan told the also running a study, and three other companies are studying NASA Advisory Council (NAC) on April 8. “If you actually advanced environmental control and life-support systems do this development up front, we don’t need to develop a (Eclss) for future habs. surface-specifi c hab or a transit-specifi c hab or a taxi-specifi c As part of NASA’s Next Space Technologies for Explora- hab or an initial short-duration hab.” tion Partnerships (NextSTEP) project, the companies are Bigelow has based its habitat developments on infl atable- matching space-agency funds with their own resources in structures work started at NASA’s Johnson Space Center. 50-50 cost-sharing arrangements to make work they are It has two unmanned habitats in orbit, and in September doing on NASA’s current needs “extensible” to exploration is scheduled to launch its Bigelow Expandable Activities beyond the ISS and low Earth orbit. Module (Beam) to the ISS for testing with humans inside. “What we’re trying to do is maximize commercial applica- Boeing, Orbital ATK and Lockheed Martin are competing tions of these technologies while getting an impact for our re- for second-round Commercial Resupply Services (CRS-2) quirements as well,” says Jason Crusan, director of advanced contracts to support the station, and the latter two are bas- exploration systems in the Human Exploration and Opera- ing the habitat work on their cargo vehicles in keeping with tions (HEO) directorate at NASA headquarters. “There may the principle Crusan describes. be commercial applications for habitation in low Earth orbit Boeing’s CRS-2 proposal essentially pulls the seats, abort at some point. We’d like to understand what industry thinks engines, Eclss and other human gear from the CST-100 LOCKHEED MARTIN SPACE SYSTEMS Full-scale mock-up of Lockheed Martin’s proposed pressur- ized cargo carrier for deliveries to the space station. The company also will use the struc- ture as it develops a crew-habitat version of the module under its NextSTEP study contract with NASA.

30 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/APRIL 27-MAY 10, 2015 AviationWeek.com/awst Prepare for departures from the norm.

With our E-Jets E2 program well under way, it is time for a look inside, where well-conceived design for a new generation allows passengers to enjoy their own personal territory. This “space within a space” is achieved through clear delineation, advanced ergonomic engineering, and meticulous attention to detail throughout the sumptuous cabin. All to ensure each seat – and every crew station – is a great destination in itself. Leaving normal expectations far behind. SPACE

commercial-crew vehicle it is developing for NASA, and vanced Eclss and other developmental exploration hard- replaces it with cargo accommodation. For its NextSTEP ware, Hopkins says. While Lockheed Martin plans to add habitat study, Boeing is developing a separate vehicle that electric propulsion (EP) to its Jupiter tug for operations in is intended to be simple and affordable early on, and evolv- geostationary orbit, the Jupiter spacecraft is based on the able for later long-duration missions, according to Crusan’s company’s planetary spacecraft and would not need it for presentation to the NAC. cislunar operations. Orbital ATK plans to adapt the Cygnus cargo carrier that “We could fly the same propulsion system, the same hard- already has delivered cargo to the space station under a CRS-1 ware, that we’re designing for the ISS mission,” Hopkins says. contract into a habitat for cislunar space that can be expanded “That was part of the decision process of basing that on an by linking its pressurized modules. Lockheed Martin is using interplanetary bus rather than a low-Earth-orbit bus. The the same pressurized module it has proposed for CRS-2 as the electronics are designed to handle the radiation. It’s designed basis of a habitat for the NextSTEP study, and is already build- so it doesn’t need 24-hour-a-day babysitting, and essentially ing a full-scale mockup for the cargo-carrier proposal that also the delta-V is low enough that we can get there with that can be used for the habitat study (see photo). propulsion system on existing rockets.” Josh Hopkins, the space exploration architect at Lockheed Three other companies won NextSTEP partnerships to Martin Space Systems, is managing the NextSTEP work in- conduct advanced Eclss work aimed at extending the range ternally. In addition to the 40-cubic-meter pressure vessel of habitats toward Mars. Dynetics Inc. of Huntsville, Alabama, —built at the same Thales Alenia Space factory in Turin, Italy, will study miniature systems to scrub carbon dioxide and other that builds the Cygnus—the Lockheed Martin habitat would gases from cabin air; Hamilton Sundstrand of Windsor Locks, Connecticut, will work on modular Eclss subsystems designed to use common Radiator components, and Orbitec of Madison, Wis- Area Solar consin, will study “hybrid” systems that Array merge chemical and biological processes to help close the life-support loop. EVA Docking Service While the Lockheed Martin habitat Orion Handrails Port won’t need electric propulsion to reach Spacecraft Module cislunar space, EP remains a major en- abler for prepositioning supplies and The cargo carrier and the habitat would use the same planetary bus under Lockheed Martin’s ‘Jupiter’ concept. High-Gain Antenna habitats at Mars for human explorers. NASA picked three NextSTEP partners Habitat Airlock to advance their ongoing work in the Module field—Ad Astra Rocket Co., Webster, Texas, for long-duration tests of its Vari- Pressurized Suitport able Specific Impulse Magnetoplasma Rocket prototype; Aerojet Rocketdyne, Hatch Redmond, Washington, for an operational Source: Lockheed Martin demonstration of a 250-kw nested Hall thruster, and MSNW, also of Redmond, to advance the 100-Joule Electrodeless Lorentz Force Thruster it has been de- use the same service module that is the basis of the reusable veloping with U.S. Defense Department funds. “Jupiter” space tug the company has proposed for CRS-2 Rounding out the NextSTEP partnerships are two 6U-cube- (AW&ST March 12, p. 60). sat resource scouts designed to ride piggyback on the first The habitat version would add an airlock with a second flight test of the heavy-lift Space Launch System on a swing docking port, and a high-gain antenna for communications around the Moon in 2018. Lockheed Martin Space systems (see illustration). Life support would be handled by the Eclss will receive $1.4 million for “Skyfire,” which will collect in the Orion, with fans to circulate the atmosphere through surface spectroscopy and thermography. Morehead State the capsule, and thermal control systems inside the habitat. University in Kentucky will get $7.9 million for the “Lunar Oxygen and some other consumables would be carried in the IceCube,” which will use an infrared spectrometer to seek “exoliner” portion of the Jupiter bus, outside the pressurized ice, liquid water and water vapor from a low-perigee, near- section, while drinking water might be used to help shield the polar orbit around the Moon. c crew from space radiation. Thales Alenia built many of the pressurized modules al- ready attached to the ISS. The proposed Lockheed Martin Digital Extra See images of the crew vehicles proposed habitat would be sized to accommodate as many as eight for NextSTEP by Bigelow, Boeing and Orbital ATK at standard station experiment racks that could house ad- AviationWeek.com/Habitats

32 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/APRIL 27-MAY 10, 2015 AviationWeek.com/awst tial AR-1 replacement for the RD-180. Tough Times In their markup of the fiscal 2016 defense authorization bill, they limit Launch incumbents try to adjust to shifting rocket-propulsion-system program spending to an engine “to replace non- government/customer market landscape allied space launch engines by 2019,” a clear show of support for the AR-1. Air Amy Butler and Guy Norris Colorado Springs Force Space Command chief Gen. John Hyten says USAF only wants to buy wo mainstay U.S. launch com- con 9; ULA hopes to retire the costly launch services, not directly manage panies—United Launch Alliance Delta IV single-core rocket , but needs an engine development. T(ULA) and Aerojet Rocketdyne— more Russian-made RD-180 engines in “Getting to certification [for AR-1] are struggling to keep their edge in a order to pit Atlas V against the Falcon. by 2018 is defi nitely within the realm changing government market that is Amid these challenges, ULA is off er- of reason if you have the money,” Julie increasingly interested in contractors ing no lifelines to Aerojet Rocketdyne, Van Kleeck, vice president of space and backed by private investors. which is caught in a similar situation; its launch systems at Aerojet Rocketdyne, While fi ghting its own battle against AR-1 engine needs government money says . “There will be an acquisition. We a privately funded SpaceX to retain to compete with Blue Origin’s BE-4 have to go through that process as we its hold on the U.S. national security methane-based system to power the are right now. We started working this launch arena, ULA is, in turn, taking Vulcan. last year and here we are a year later, advantage of Blue Origin’s funding to ULA CEO Tory Bruno dismissed and no one has made a decision to do build its next-generation propulsion Aerojet Rocketdyne’s claim of deliver- anything yet.” The frustration of Aero- subsystem for the new Vulcan rocket. ing an AR-1 rocket engine by 2018—a jet Rocketdyne, however, is a byproduct ULA is struggling to keep its Atlas year earlier than previously stated—as of the company’s own reliance on gov- V competitive against SpaceX’s Fal- “ridiculous.” ernment funding. “It is not going to happen. I would love for them to prove me wrong, but [it is not] realistic,” Bruno says. “They believe they can do some clever things with new materials in additive manu- facturing and analytical models that shorten the [traditional] development cycle. I believe that they are overly op- timistic. Our assessment is they are 1-2 years behind Blue Origin at this time.” Bruno expects to downselect be- tween the two in the next 18 months, but he prefers BE-4. This is a double whammy for Aero- jet Rocketdyne, which has invested in an engine that apparently now has little chance of earning its way onto a U.S. Evolved Expendable Launch Vehicle —either Vulcan or Atlas V. Al- though the company is marketing AR-1 as a “drop-in” replacement for the RD- 180 for Atlas V, Bruno does not support the plan. “We could integrate an engine into a launch vehicle while it is being certifi ed,” says Linda Cova, program manager at Aerojet Rocketdyne. Some House lawmakers, however, are steering funding toward a poten- ULA’s Vulcan rocket family is designed from the 441 (left) to the 561 (right) confi gurations to handle all missions now executed by the Atlas V through to the Delta IV Heavy. The larger version would rely on strap-on solid-fueled en- gines and a new upper stage to loft the heaviest satellites into orbit. ULA CONCEPTS

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Aerojet Rocketdyne is planning to than the AR-1, which operates with first stage. “You can’t just dust it off conduct a preliminary design review kerosene. The outcome will dictate the and reuse it. You have to do plumbing for AR-1 in December, Cova says. The design of the rest of the booster. and new cables and insulation and all company is depending on additive Aside from its earlier schedule, this kind of stuff. Our calculations say manufacturing to shorten develop- Bruno is backing the BE-4 for its par- [it takes] 7-8 uses to break even. . . . To ment and production-cycle times. tial reusability. His decision to reuse really make it worthwhile, you [must] Ultimately at issue could be how only the BE-4 engines—not the entire reuse it about 15 times.” much the Pentagon is willing to trust first stage—was driven purely by the Rival SpaceX failed to successfully the claims of a relative newcomer to economics and the engine’s use of the land a Falcon 9 v1.1 first stage after an defense, the well-heeled Blue Origin. “clean burning” methane fuel. April 14 launch. “I’m surprised they One industry source suggests Penta- “It takes a good 7-8 reuses before you didn’t make it,” Bruno says. SpaceX gon policymakers are intrigued but can pay off the additional cost of all the plans to attempt its fourth first-stage leery of relying on the unproved BE-4. extra equipment and the logistics of re- recovery during NASA’s seventh Com- Bruno’s downselect decision will covering it and then bringing it back to mercial Resupply mission, slated for not allow for much wiggle room once the factory with a reasonable amount the summer, and it is eyeing a future made. The BE-4 design that relies on of refurbishment that you have to do,” landing on land, not the floating-barge methane requires much larger tanks Bruno says, referencing reuse of a full recovery currently targeted.

TECHNOLOGY

network, sharing position and other information. They will Swarm Theory form a “parent/child” relationship, with one of the UAVs acting as the lead and the others following, he says. At-sea demo will focus on rapid “They know where they are, and tell everyone else where they are. That is part of the communications,” says Mastroi- launch-and-swarm formation with anni. The UAV acting as parent may change depending on maneuvers, and the demo will look at how tightly they can for- autonomous small UAVs mate, at what altitude and through what maneuvers, he says. ONR’s goal is for the swarm to be autonomous. “I want to Graham Warwick Washington hit launch and not talk to them,” Mastroianni says. Commands can be sent to break the swarm into different packages, or to demonstration to show whether autonomous, swarm- send individual UAVs off to perform other missions such as ing small unmanned aircraft can overwhelm an adver- intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance. A sary more cost-effectively than conventional weapon The UAVs are intended to be expendable, to avoid the cost systems is planned for fiscal 2016 by the Office of Naval Re- of recovering them after a mission. “We need to make them search (ONR). cheap and disposable to make them attractive to use,” he says. Under the Low-Cost UAV Swarming Technology (Locust) ONR’s goal is a unit cost under $10,000. “It would be nice to get to $5,000-7,000.” For the at-sea demo in 2016, the UAVs will be recovered to avoid any harm to sea ONR has demonstrated rapid life, but that may involve launch of Raytheon’s tube- flying them into a target launched Coyote small UAV. on land, says Mastroianni. Demonstrating rapid launch of 30 UAVs in 30 sec. or less, and subsequent fast for- mation of the swarm is a key enabler for the use of low-cost

OFFICE OF NAVAL RESEARCH OFFICE OF NAVAL battery-powered vehicles. “Rapid launch is driven by endur- ance, which for small UAVs is not long,” he says. program, ONR plans to launch 30 Raytheon Coyotes from a Although the technology behind Locust is intended to be ship off the coast of Florida, with the expendable UAVs rapidly platform-, payload- and mission-agnostic, says Mastroianni, forming a swarm and autonomously conducting a mission. the need for useful endurance drives the size of the UAV and Coyote is a tube-launched electrically powered small UAV the choice for the demo of the 12-14-lb. Coyote, which can fly originally developed for ONR by Advanced Ceramics Re- for 90 min. search, which was first acquired by BAE Systems then sold The Locust demo “is a big first step in autonomy, and help- to Sensintel, which was acquired by Raytheon in January. ing people get comfortable with the autonomy,” he says. Last ONR conducted several Coyote launches in March, and also August, in a demo on the James River in Virginia, ONR showed demonstrated autonomous synchronization and formation that swarming small unmanned surface vessels could over- flight with nine UAVs. The swarming demo is planned from whelm a hostile ship. ONR’s Sea Fighter technology-demonstration ship, offshore The technology involves a transportable kit that can be in- from Eglin AFB in Florida, says Lee Mastroianni, Locust pro- stalled on almost any boat. Locust is part of an effort to develop gram manager. autonomy technologies that can be applied across surface, un- After rapid launch the Coyotes will establish communica- dersea and air domains, says Rear Adm. Mat Winter, chief of tion between themselves using a low-power radio-frequency naval research. c

34 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/APRIL 27-MAY 10, 2015 AviationWeek.com/awst “We applaud all efforts to bring reus- “You can accomplish the economic copter will pluck it from the sky. ability into today’s launch systems,” a advantage in about five or so” reuses, In the case of the BE-4, ULA is SpaceX spokesman says of ULA’s stance. Bruno says of a methane engine such as planning only to include a separation “However, SpaceX is thinking beyond the BE-4. “If you happen to use a very interface with a shaped charge for just saving money—we’re working to- clean-burning propellant like liquid decoupling the engine from the rest ward making human life multiplanetary.” natural gas or methane, then the refur- of the stage, the inflatable heat shield ULA, however, is embracing a differ- bishment is even less and the ultimate and the parafoil for recovery. “It is ent form of reusability with its newly number of reuses is even greater.” not going to be bathed in plasma and unveiled Vulcan rocket that should pay Bruno says after the main engine recirculating rocket exhaust on the off with only three reuses, Bruno says. cut-off, the paired BE-4s will be way down, because there is no rocket ULA intends to reuse only the main en- physically detached from the base exhaust. It is covered up in this coni- gine for Vulcan. of the core by a shaped explosive cal heat shield; it experiences a very “The issues around reusability in charge; they will employ a hypersonic benign environment on the way in,” the kind of lift we are doing now are all inflatable aerodynamic decelerator Bruno says. “Our approach is such economic,” Bruno says, acknowledging and, when in the atmosphere, deploy that the engine, during recovery, will that single-stage-to-orbit reusability is a parafoil. This will direct the BE-4 see less severe environments than it the ultimate goal. to a rendezvous point where a heli- does in its normal operation.” c

the platform-specific beam-director telescope, says Davis. Ready To Fire The unit cell is a laser oscillator that produces a single 75- kw beam. Modules can be ganged together to produce a 150- U.S. Navy program to arm destroyer or 300-kw beam. There is no beam-combining, Davis says, as there is in systems that use multiple lower-power fiber lasers. could be first to field laser weapons The Pentagon and several other manufacturers have shifted focus to fiber lasers because they are a commercial technology Graham Warwick Washington and have higher electrical-to-optical “wallplug” efficiency than diode lasers that previously exceeded 100 kw. hile fashions in high-energy lasers have changed as But the Gen 3’s efficiency is at the level of fiber lasers, Davis technology progresses, from gas to diode and now says, adding that the company has worked for several years to Wfiber, General Atomics Aeronautical Systems (GA- improve beam quality and achieved “excellent quality” in the ASI) has stayed its course over more than a decade and be- latest tests. Adaptive optics adjust the beam to compensate lieves its third generation electric laser weapon is ready for for atmospheric distortion.

prime time. GRAHAM WARWICK/AW&ST The company has responded to an Office of Naval Research (ONR) solicitation for a 150-kw laser weapon suitable for instal- lation on DDG-51-class destroyers to counter unmanned aircraft and small boats. Under ONR’s General Atomics’ third-generation Solid-State Laser tactical laser weapon module is Technology Matu- sized to fit on its Avenger UAV. ration program, the weapon is to be demonstrated in 2018 on the USS Paul Foster, a decommissioned Spruance-class destroyer that now serves as the U.S. Navy’s ship-defense test vessel. GA-ASI has proposed its Gen 3 High-Energy Laser (HEL) system, which recently completed independent beam-quality and power testing for the U.S. government. The Gen 3 system is the third generation of electrically pumped laser using the architecture developed for Darpa’s Hellads program. In the independent unit-cell tests, beam quality was mea- Under development since 2003, the 150-kw Hellads will sured over a range of operating power and run time, which be tested this summer at White Sands Missile Range in New is limited only by the “magazine depth” of the battery sys- Mexico. A smaller, lighter and more efficient Gen 2 system was tem. “Beam quality was constant throughout the entire run built and tested in 2010-12 for the Pentagon’s HEL Joint Tech- of greater than 30 sec.,” says GA-ASI. nology Office (JTO), says Jim Davis, director of laser weapons. “Fiber lasers are interesting, but it is a matter of maturity,” Gen 3 has increased electrical-to-optical efficiency, im- says Davis. “We are where fiber may be in five years. We have proved beam quality and further reduced size and weight, says built several versions of this laser over the last 10 years, and GA-ASI. A mockup of the Tactical Laser Weapon Module was we believe [the Gen 3 system] is affordable as is.” unveiled at the Sea-Air-Space show here April 13-15. Davis says GA-ASI’s Avenger unmanned aircraft has suffi- The module includes high-power-density lithium-ion bat- cient onboard power to recharge a 150-kw-class Gen 3 airborne teries, liquid cooling for the laser and batteries, one or more laser module in flight. “That’s the utility; you don’t need to go laser unit cells and optics to clean up the beam before it enters back to reload,” Davis says. c

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lines and Air Berlin from AEA leaves Painful Divorce legacy European airline interests and representation in limbo. European Three members are leaving the Association of policy-makers can no longer be sure that AEA’s position refl ects the com- European Airlines over a policy dispute mon view of the region’s airlines—in fact, it has become clear that in some Jens Flottau Frankfurt crucial points it does not. The situation raises the question of f executives at the Association of Air Berlin announced its decision— what is needed to reformulate a strong European Airlines (AEA) were AEA reacted, stating that it was “totally European airline lobbying group. Some Ihoping the worst was over after incorrect to portray AEA as a protec- insiders say a new body is needed to the departure of International Airlines tionist association that is creating a wall supersede the AEA. Some have hinted Group (IAG) carriers British Airways around Europe.” AEA insists that “none AEA might merge with the Interna- and Iberia, they were clearly wrong. of the campaigns initiated by AEA on tional Air Carrier Association (IACA), Air Berlin’s decision to follow shows liberalization, external relations or which mainly represents European how deeply divided European carriers ownership and control have advocated charter airlines. The low-cost airline in- are over crucial policy issues , and how protectionism,” and that “all positions dustry is represented by the European infl uential the Gulf carriers really are. taken by the association are the result Low Fare Airline Association (ELFAA) “We see no future in a protectionist of discussions between its members.” and regional airlines are grouped in the aviation policy in Europe,” Air Ber- AEA maintains it supports market European Regions Airline Association lin’s CEO Stefan Pichler said. “The liberalization if there is an added value (ERA). Any larger body merging two or liberalization of bilateral agreements for European airlines, and that owner- more of these would have to take into will promote further consolidation ship and control rules should “evolve account their differing interests and and new innovative business models, over time on the basis of reciprocity.” clarify who is in charge. Similar moves thereby benefi ting all passengers. With IAG and Air Berlin’s exits from AEA have been made on the national level. In its current focus and representation are also driven by other factors. Qatar Germany, industry association BDL was of interests, AEA is not fulfi lling these Airways is now IAG’s biggest sharehold- created to represent all of the country’s ideas, but allowing itself to be driven er, and Air Berlin would likely cease op- airlines and airports, albeit with signifi - by airlines which desperately try to erations without the continuing fi nan- cant ongoing internal confl ict. erect a new wall around Europe.” cial support of its largest shareholder, The drastic move by Air Berlin also Air Berlin’s move follows a decision Etihad Airways. Industry sources say refl ects the enormous pressure the air- by IAG to terminate the AEA member- Alitalia, another Etihad affi liate in Eu- line is under for various reasons. It has ship of subsidiaries British Airways rope, is also considering exiting AEA, an extensive code-sharing arrangement and Iberia. Like Air Berlin, IAG cites a which raises the question of what role with Etihad, but the German transport fundamental disagreement on aviation Etihad is play ing in these moves. ministry plans to withhold approval policy as the reason for its departure. Similar to a recent initiative in the for large parts of the next winter time- “Our position on some important policy U.S., Air France-KLM and Lufthansa table, arguing that the code-sharing issues is not aligned with many other are driving a campaign to curtail the fl ights are not in line with the bilateral AEA airlines,” IAG stated earlier this growth of Gulf carriers at their expense. between the UAE and Germany. month , adding that “global liberaliza- In particular, the two large airline In particular, fl ights from Berlin and tion of our industry is fundamental to groups are opposing any further liberal- Stuttgart to Abu Dhabi operated by our future growth and we are not will- ization of bilateral agreements with the Air Berlin are at risk, because Etihad ing to compromise on it.” The group United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Qatar may no longer be able to put its code also noted its long-standing demand to until an agreement is reached on what on these fl ights or on many other con- eliminate ownership and control limita- level of government support for airlines nections beyond Berlin. If the ministry tions and its position on the Norwegian should be permitted. Air France-KLM holds its position, the commercial re- Air International U.S. operating permit, CEO Alexandre de Juniac and Luf- lationship between Air Berlin and Eti- which IAG—unlike most European and thansa CEO Carsten Spohr made their had would suff er massively, raising the U.S. legacy carriers—supports. position clear in a joint letter to the Eu- question of how long Etihad would re- After almost a week of silence since ropean Commission late last year . main committed to its partner if little IAG’s departure, on April 21—the day But the departure of the IAG air- or no code-sharing is possible. The latest revision of the UAE/ Germany bilateral pre-dates Etihad’s creation. The transport ministry says it allows code-sharing only on German domestic routes. Air Berlin and Etihad argue that its long-haul code-sharing fl ights have already been approved for many seasons and should therefore be allowed to continue. c Air Berlin exits AEA, saying it is try-

JOEPRIESAVIATION.NET ing to ‘erect a wall around Europe.’

36 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/APRIL 27-MAY 10, 2015 AviationWeek.com/awst For Chinese airlines, the A330-300 has been notably useful Not Interested over the past decade in supplementing narrowbody aircraft on crowded domestic airways, but growth in the country’s econo- Lack of A330 Regional orders makes my, and thus domestic passenger traffic, has slowed markedly. The air force, meanwhile, continues to allow incremental ca- transition to A330neo harder pacity growth on commercial air routes. To the extent that more A330-300s will be needed, they may become available as larger Jens Flottau Frankfurt and Bradley Perrett Beijing aircraft, such as 777-300ERs, take over Asian regional services. For Airbus, further orders are crucial for the A330 ahead he transition from the current Airbus A330 to the A330neo of the transition to the A330neo. Last year, the company cut was never going to be easy. But that it has become as diffi- monthly production to nine from 10 aircraft and was forced Tcult as it is now has a lot to do with one market that Airbus to reduce it to six, effective in early 2016. However, the first thought would be ideal for both aircraft: China. A330neo will only be delivered in late 2017. The current A330 In late 2013, Airbus launched the A330 Regional. Certifying backlog stands at 317 aircraft but that includes 145 NEOs, the A330 with a low maximum weight to save a little on opera- leaving only 172 for the current variant. Not all of those will tional costs was supposed to add to its attraction. Airbus hoped be delivered before the end of 2017. the regional variant would help secure a Chinese order for up to But to bring Chinese customers back on board for the 200 A330s, which would have helped considerably with keeping A330, any industrial agreement would have to be broadened the A330 line at or close to its current production rate for about to include the -800neo and -900neo versions. The situation two more years. As an added incentive, Airbus was prepared is further complicated by an internal Airbus study under the to open an A330 completion center in China to fit interiors to project name “Icon,” which is essentially about developing an otherwise complete aircraft flown in from Toulouse. upgraded cabin for the aircraft. The extent of the upgrade is But the chances of Airbus actually setting it up in the short not clear and several suppliers, including those from China, term look increasingly dim. An industry official familiar with have expressed an interest in the work. If a deal with China the thinking of Chinese airline representatives and those in comes through, this almost certainly would lead to a resump- charge of state-controlled orders says the carriers are now tion of talks about a completion center. However, according quite unlikely to place a large order for A330s. They are instead to industry sources, Airbus is uncertain when the changed looking more at the A350 and Boeing 777-300ER and 787. cabin should be introduced. c

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left off, allowing access to equipment, Defending the and the engines were not fitted. The second airframe had its engines. These flight-test aircraft are built Schedule to the design of the MRJ90, the longer of the two versions of the regional jet Citing ‘normal development problems,’ intended for 92 passengers in a stan- dard, all-economy configuration. The Mitsubishi Aircraft slips MRJ’s first flight two static-test airframes, one for verify- Bradley Perrett Beijing ing the strength of the aircraft and the other for confirming its fatigue resis- he weather is better in Moses detail, we looked at feedback on the tance, also have MRJ90 structures. The Lake than Nagoya. And there is airframe software and hardware. One eighth airframe will be an MRJ70, the Tless air traffic, too. specific example of this feedback is a version intended to seat 78 passengers. So Mitsubishi Aircraft, aiming at problem with the degree of RAT (ram- European airlines are interested in preserving the first-delivery target air turbine) structural strength.” the proposed MRJ100, with all-econ- of the MRJ regional jet despite a new U.S. flight testing has been due to be- omy seating for 100, but the company development delay, will switch one of gin about two quarters after the first cannot launch development of that its test aircraft to the group due to fly flight. If that interval is unchanged, then version while focusing on protecting from the Washington state city, where one of the flight-test aircraft should be- the delayed schedule of the MRJ90, it can spend more time in the air. gin flying at Moses Lake around a year originally due to enter service in the Ground testing has revealed a soft- from now. Mitsubishi Aircraft has con- last quarter of 2013. The same engine ware bug and a need to change some tracted Seattle engineering company is used on the MRJ90 and MRJ70, but of the structure of the MRJ, the com- Aerotec to support the flight testing. derated for the smaller version. pany says. For those reasons, it has MITSUBISHI AIRCRAFT moved the first flight to September or October from the previously scheduled second quarter of 2015. “These are, however, problems that arise as a normal part of the aircraft de- velopment process,” the company says in a statement issued to Aviation Week. “They do not, at any rate, represent the kind of major trouble that would cause a delay in the overall schedule.” The target for the first delivery, the second quarter of 2017, is unchanged, says the company. The time allowed for flight testing has therefore been compressed. This will be done by fly- Four MRJ flight-test aircraft are in final assembly at Mitsubishi Heavy ing four of the five flight-test aircraft Industries’ Komaki South plant. in the U.S., instead of three. “We will be able to make flight tests in Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (MHI) Customers expecting early deliver- the U.S. with a high frequency of three is the main shareholder in Mitsubishi ies include All Nippon Airways, Trans to four times on a daily basis, which will Aircraft and is building the MRJ air- States Airlines and Skywest Inc. help us acquire useful data in a more frame. The type uses the Pratt & Whit- Mitsubishi Aircraft and MHI say efficient way,” Mitsubishi Aircraft says. ney PW1200G engine. they have finalized the manufactur- The expected duration of flight time Company photos taken in the past ing scheme for the MRJ. This will for testing, around 2,500 hr., has not few weeks show that the fifth flight-test include final assembly of PW1200Gs changed. The company has previously aircraft is now in final assembly at the by Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Aero cited the good weather and light traf- MHI plant at Nagoya Airport, Komaki Engines. fic around Moses Lake’s Grant County South, that is performing this work be- As previously planned, a new plant International Airport as reasons for fore volume production begins. All fuse- beside Nagoya Airport will finally as- sending the originally planned group lage modules of the fifth except the tail semble, outfit and paint the aircraft. of three aircraft there for flight testing. cone had been joined together by April Mitsubishi Aircraft’s head office has In announcing the delay, Mitsubishi 3, when the photograph was taken. moved to the airport terminal building. Aircraft said the results of tests need- As of January, the latest aircraft to The Japanese side of flight testing will ed to be incorporated into the first air- enter final assembly was the fourth. be based at Nagoya Airport. craft, which was rolled out in October. By early this month that unit had been MHI’s Tobishima plant, part of the It now adds: “In ground tests, a bug painted but, like the fifth, did not have Nagoya Aerospace Systems Works, occurred in a portion of the software, its tail surfaces or left and right wing will build the MRJ wing, using parts as did design changes in some system boxes attached. The third airframe from the manufacturer’s Kobe Ship- parts. In considering these issues in looked complete, but fairings had been yard & Machinery Works. c

AviationWeek.com/awst AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/APRIL 27-MAY 10, 2015 39 DEFENSE

VMFAT-501 are slated to participate Back to Sea in the trials off the Atlantic coast on the USS Wasp, according to Maj. Paul Greenberg, a Marine Corps spokes- Operational tests leading to F-35B’s man. This will be the first time six of the single-engine, stealthy aircraft summer debut may not feature all hardware have been deployed to sea on the same ship simultaneously. Amy Butler and Michael Fabey Washington Operators will assess the ability of the fi ghter to function not only on take- he U.S. Marine Corps is pre- bility for the fi ghter as early as July. off and landing but also in navigating paring for its first and only op- The trials—set for May 18-29— around the deck and in the belly of the Terational testing (OT) period for are the first shipboard operational ship, where maintenance operations the Lockheed Martin F-35B before tests for any of the three F-35 vari- take place. The tr ials largely focus on declaring initial operational capa- ants. Six F-35Bs from VMFA-121 and validating that users can maintain a

An F-35B conducts a vertical landing on the deck of the USS Wasp during developmental testing trials at sea.

LOCKHEED MARTIN 40 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/APRIL 27-MAY 10, 2015 AviationWeek.com/awst AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY

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©2015 Beechcraft Corporation. All rights reserved. Beechcraft and King Air are registered trademarks of the Beechcraft Corporation. Contents FRONT LINE DTI 4 Defeating Goliath David’s Sling missile defense passes test with flying colors

DTI 4 Gas Scavenger Prototype rebreather reduces helium content of oxygen mix Save the date DTI 6 Renewable Energy Bio-based cooking tablets are efficient and ‘green’ for these upcoming events!

DTI 4 MRO BEER: BALTICS, EASTERN EUROPE & RUSSIA May 5 – 6, 2015 Budapest, Hungary

THE COMMERCIAL AEROSPACE MANUFACTURING BRIEFING June 17, 2015 Paris, France DEFENSE ANALYSIS DTI 8 Holding the High Ground Enhancements boost UAS mission capabilities MRO EUROPE DTI 11 Pseudo-Satellite October 13 – 15, 2015 Unmanned Zephyr zeros in London, UK on suborbital data relay

DTI 12 Standoff Deterrence Air-launched mines create precise, effective minefields MRO ASIA-PACIFIC DTI 13 Humans Need Not Apply November 3 – 5, 2015 U.S. Navy seeks undersea robots for mine clearance Singapore

DTI 8 AEROSPACE DEFENSE CHAIN November 3 – 5, 2015 Scottsdale, AZ

FIRST PERSON For registration, sponsorship DTI 14 Ministering to Defense and information go to Malaysia’s defense minister faces multiple challenges www.aviationweek.com/events

The next issue of the Defense Technology Edition will be dated May 11-24.

AviationWeek.com/dti AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY DEFENSE TECHNOLOGY INTERNATIONAL APRIL 27-MAY 10, 2015 DTI3 FRONT LINE Meet and Defeat Israeli missile defense system moves closer to deployment srael’s David’s Sling weapon system for air and missile de-

fense completed its third test series (DST-3) last month, ISRAEL DEFENSE MINISTRY Iperforming successful intercepts of targets representing rel- evant threats: missiles and rockets of different sizes, fired from medium and long ranges, and flying at low, medium and high altitudes. David’s Sling will be ready for operational deployment following the fourth test phase planned for later this year, ac- cording to the Israel Defense Forces. The Stunner missile is the primary interceptor of David’s Sling. Conceived in 2006 as the Short Range system. The Arrow 3 ballistic missile Ballistic Missile Defense System, Da- weapon is expected to join the network of tests of the Stunner interceptor, de- vid’s Sling was developed with U.S. after 2016, adding exo-atmospheric in- veloped for David’s Sling. The Stunner cooperation and joint funding of $250 terception capabilities. missile is slated to become part of oth- million. Israel has requested additional Like the Arrow systems, David’s Sling er air-defense systems, including the U.S. funding of $150 million for the initial will provide coverage from two central future Patriot 4 planned by Raytheon. procurement phase. Deployment will in- locations, rather than the distributed Stunner is compatible with Patriot fire volve two systems controlling multiple deployment of Iron Dome. With a pro- units, thus extending their range and fire units and covering all of Israel. tected footprint larger than that of the engagement capabilities and improv- David’s Sling will expand Israel’s air Iron Dome batteries, David’s Sling will ing battle economy against overwhelm- defenses, enabling effective engage- be more effective in intercepting long- ing threats. Raytheon and Rafael are ment of medium- and short-range range rockets such as those used against proposing the Stunner-Patriot option ballistic missiles, guided ballistic mis- Israel in recent conflicts. Such weapons, to international customers. siles, cruise missiles and other weap- with ranges of 60-300 km (37-186 mi.), The prime for David’s Sling is Ra- ons. David’s Sling is by 2016 expected were supplied by Iran to Hezbollah. fael, with Raytheon a prime subcon- to become part of the national missile It will also be effective against guided tractor. The multi-mission radar is defense system, which includes Ar- ballistic missiles supplied by Iran to from Israel Aerospace Industries/Elta row 2 and Iron Dome. The Stunner in- Hezbollah, and shorter-range rockets Systems. Elbit Systems/Elisra devel- terceptor missile will be the primary (75-160 km) produced by Hamas. oped the battle management center. c endo-atmospheric interceptor of the DST-3 represents the third series —David Eshel Gas Rationing New rebreather counters helium shortage

he U.S. Office of Naval Research mixtures underwater in a closed-cir- (ONR) has developed a prototype cuit system. The Navy’s standard Fly- Thelmet and rebreathing system Away Mixed Gas System supplies div- that will reduce the amount of helium ers with complex mixtures of oxygen used by Navy divers underwater. and helium to dilute CO2 and nitrogen One of the project’s goals is to lessen and maintain desired levels of oxygen the service’s reliance on helium, a key in the breathing mix. The helium re- component of rebreathing systems places toxic nitrogen buildup and helps that has become difficult to source and divers avoid physical traumas such as increasingly expensive in recent years, the bends, a decompression effect that while maintaining the safety of divers. debilitates the body and, in extreme A rebreathing system protects div- cases, causes death if untreated. ers from dangerous—even fatal—lev- els of carbon dioxide and nitrogen that Prototype rebreather system build up when they breathe oxygen reduces helium in its oxygen mix. U.S. NAVY/ANTHONY POWERS

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A surge in demand for helium in re- that “alternates between different The A&D cent years is what makes the gas dif- breathing systems,” which “reduces fi cult and expensive to acquire. Much the amount of helium needed” by a div- Industry’s of the demand is driven by its use as a er. No fi gures were provided as to how cooling agent in medical systems such much of a reduction can be achieved. Most Trusted as MRI machines, computer electron- ONR offi cials, who displayed the re- ics manufacturing, scientifi c research breather, helmet and a dive suit for it, Business Daily and other applications. (The Large cite advantages of the system. Hadron Collider in Switzerland, for First by “reducing the amount of example, requires 120 tons of liquid helium needed” for diving, less space is helium for cooling.) Conventional re- needed onboard ships for helium tanks, breathers expel large amounts of he- so smaller ships could as a result be used lium into the water during dives, which for operations . ONR also says that the compounds supply and cost issues. use of multiple gas mixtures in the sys- The rebreathing prototype, devel- tem could “extend the time divers remain oped by ONR’s TechSolutions pro- underwater safely.” c gram, is described as a hybrid system —Pat Toensmeier Green Heat Biofuel formulated for hot rations n army marches on its stomach, entirely from natural ingredients includ- Aerospace and defense Napoleon famously observed ing ethanol sourced from U.K. grain. leaders in industry and A(though some claim it was Fred- FireDragon is off ered as an alterna- government rely on Aerospace erick the Great, a military tactician tive to cooking fuels such as hexamine. Daily & Defense Report for the Napoleon admired, who said it fi rst). In a statement, Managing Director latest essential intelligence on And while cold, precooked rations are Andrew Howell calls hexamine an “out- programs, budgets and policies common among land forces, hot food dated substance” that can emit noxious in defense, as well as military and is a clear preference. fumes. civil space. With this in mind a Welsh company The tablets are claimed to be eff ec- has formulated a “green” fuel that is tive and effi cient. One tablet reportedly Must-read editorial features: intended to make hot meals cooked in boils 500 ml (17 oz.) of water in 5-6 min., Q Program Dossiers the fi eld safer—from an environmental at least 2 min. faster than most compet- standpoint—if not tastier. BCB Inter- itive fuels. A tablet typically burns for Q Requirements Dossiers: national Ltd. of Cardiff developed Fire- 7-8 min., and can be ignited when wet. Q SpeedNews Defense Dragon, a solid biofuel supplied in tablet No word yet as to whether any militar- Q Plus all the vital news, form of 27 grams (0.86 oz.) each. It is de- ies are considering FireDragon for use. c data, and analytics scribed as nontoxic, non-drip, and made —Pat Toensmeier

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DTI6 APRIL 27-MAY 10, 2015 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY DEFENSE TECHNOLOGY INTERNATIONAL AviationWeek.com/dti The U.S. Army recently purchased 300 licenses of MetaVR visuals for embedded training in its Universal Ground Control Stations and for Institutional Mission Simulators.

Since 2002, the Army has used MetaVR visuals for simulated UAV camera payload video for Shadow, Grey Eagle, Aerosonde, and Hunter training.

With MetaVR visuals used for simulated UAV camera payload video in ground control stations and in manned aircraft simulators, UAV operators, pilots, and JTAC trainees can achieve fully correlated HD H.264 simulated sensor video with accurate KLV metadata that replicates the actual sensor payload imagery of ISR assets during MUM-T and other distributed training exercises.

Real-time screen captures are from MetaVR’s visualization system rendering 3D virtual terrain of Kismayo, Somalia, and are unedited except as required for printing. The real-time rendering of the 3D virtual world is generated by MetaVR Virtual Reality Scene GeneratorTM (VRSGTM). 3D models are from MetaVR’s 3D content libraries. &RS\ULJKWŭ0HWD95,QF0HWD959LUWXDO5HDOLW\6FHQH*HQHUDWRU956*WKHSKUDVH³*HRVSHFL¿F simulation with game quality graphics,” and the MetaVR logo are trademarks of MetaVR, Inc. www.metavr.com DEFENSE ANALYSIS

loss of a Lockheed Martin RQ-170 Sentinel over eastern Iran Securing in 2011, which was attributed to electronic or cyberattack. Iran has also downed or captured a Boeing Insitu ScanEagle UAS operated by the U.S. Navy. Iranian jets attempted sev- Airspace eral times to fi re at USAF Predators over the Persian Gulf, but were chased away by fi ghter escorts. UAS developments focus on The Iranians also have lost quite a few UAS, deployed in support of Iranian and Iraqi forces fi ghting the Islamic State survivability and forward operations in Iraq. Since 2006, Israel faced incursions by Hezbollah from Lebanon, trying to fl y Iranian-made armed UAS over land or David Eshel Tel Aviv the Mediterranean, to hit strategic targets in Israel. At fi rst, the Israeli air force (IAF) intercepted these with nmanned aerial systems (UAS) have long since proved fi ghter jets. In recent years ground-based air-defense assets their worth as critical intelligence-gathering assets. have been used. The IAF has shot down a number of Iranian- UBut can they assure data transmission all the time? made Lebanese and Syrian UAS since 2006. Israeli-operated Are they secure from enemy attack? What happens when Patriot missiles recently shot down enemy UAS over the Go- an enemy has access to weapons that can shoot down UAS lan Heights as they turned toward Israel. Patriot missiles also or otherwise deny operations in certain areas? downed UAS over the eastern Mediterranean that had been Since missions are often covert operations, information launched from Gaza. about UAS loss rates is sketchy. In the past, they were used Syria is another example of counter-UAS warfare, since in areas where air superiority had been gained. Uncontested coalition forces face ad-hoc defenses. UAS that sometimes by enemy air defenses, UAS were exposed to ground fi re only operate without support are vulnerable to enemy fi re. In re- when fl ying low—during takeoff and landing, to gain a better cent months Syria has shot down a number of aircraft over view of targets, or dropping below the cloud base on rainy days. its territory, among them a U.S. Predator, an undisclosed While generally safe from enemy fi re at high altitude, UAS Turkish platform and one that supported an Israeli air strike are susceptible to electronic attacks on their command and but has not been identifi ed. control links or electro-optical (EO) systems. In eastern Ukraine, both sides claimed to have downed Lack of air supremacy can be devastating. For example, UAS. Last year, the Russians said they used electronic the U.S. Air Force, the largest UAS operator in the world, countermeasures to down an allegedly U.S.-operated IAI/ has lost 14 General Atomics Reaper and Predator aircraft Northrop Grumman Hunter RQ-5B. The Russians did not since January 2014, on missions over Afghanistan, Syria, Ye- substantiate the claim and the Pentagon denies it operated men, Libya and Central Africa. Some losses were attributed such a vehicle over Crimea. to enemy action, although the Pentagon declines comment. While current counter-UAS (C-UAS) capabilities are In recent years, Iran has increased its UAS awareness based on existing assets, new systems becoming available and integrated combat platforms in all major training ex- improve the ability of ground forces to deny UAS operations. ercises, so ground forces and air-defense units can practice Modern tactical radars that deploy with ground forces en- shoot-down skills. In 2014, Iran reportedly downed an Israeli able detection and early warning. For example, the AN/MPQ- Hermes 450 UAS fl ying near its uranium enrichment center 64 Sentinel from ThalesRaytheon and Giraff e AMB radar in Natanz. The Iranians have repeatedly contested incursions from Saab are available with enhanced C-UAV capability, of U.S. platforms into its airspace. The most notable was the as part of the counter-rocket, artillery and mortar (C-RAM)

Brazil equipped its Elbit Hermes 900 UAS with the Skyeye multi- payload system to provide persistent surveillance of wide areas. Skyeye operates with the standard Compass EO/IR payload.

BRAZILIAN AIR FORCE DTI8 APRIL 27-MAY 10, 2015 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY DEFENSE TECHNOLOGY INTERNATIONAL AviationWeek.com/dti upgrade that improves radar track- Capability Increment 2 Intercept ing of high- and low-velocity targets NOAM ESHEL/AW&ST Program of Record, to improve pro- in the cluttered environment above tection for rapid deployment forces the horizon. RADA’s Multi-mission on contingencies beyond 2020. The Hemispheric Radar provides such interceptor missiles that could be capabilities in a small package suit- deployed with such a system range able for deployment with tactical The Sparrow miniature multi-rotor UAS from the Miniature Hit-to-Kill mis- forces. And Russia’s NNIIRT has from Torquing Group has 14 acoustic sonars sile from Lockheed Martin to the developed vehicle-mounted phased- providing a safety bubble around it to enable combat- proven Tamir, the inter- array 3-D radar (1L121E) to detect safe fl ights in dangerous areas. ceptor developed for Israel’s Iron UAS and guided weapons. Company Dome C-RAM system. sources say the radar operates on the move to provide target The Army-funded HEL-MD (high-energy laser-mobile data for other air-defense assets. demonstrator) from Boeing has defeated mortars and UAS Being alerted to the presence of a UAS is one thing, but using a 10-kw off -the-shelf laser. Rheinmetall demonstrated denying it from completing its mission is another. The most the ability to combine several laser beams on a single target, basic form of attack is GPS jamming, although this is likely which develops suffi cient power to destroy UAS and cruise to aff ect only the simplest aircraft. More advanced platforms missiles (AW&ST March 30-April 12, p. DTI 6). In 2013, the employ navigation systems enabling the UAS to sense an at- company demonstrated a successful engagement of three tack and switch to inertial guidance. An anti-jamming GPS UAVs, using high-energy laser eff ectors. Even without high device could also render simple jamming ineff ective. power, laser beams can be used against EO systems, either Since UAS eff ectiveness depends on maintaining an active to dazzle sensors or burn through optics. data link with the user, disrupting the link is a valid counter- To evaluate such capabilities the U.S. Defense Advanced measure. Such a capability was developed by SRC working Research Projects Agency will conduct a “High-Energy Laser with the U.S. Army, combining the company’s AN/TPQ-50 Rodeo” at White Sands Missile Range, New Mexico, Nov. 15. radar with the AN/ULQ-35 Duke electronic warfare jammer The event will open the door for laser weapon system de- to disrupt UAS data links. Cyberattacks also exploit UAS velopers outside offi cial Defense Department programs to dependence on external communications and control. demonstrate their capabilities. The U.S. Army is seeking to fi eld an air-defense system As ground forces improve C-UAV capabilities, aircraft dedicated to C-RAM and C-UAV missions. The truck- must evolve to provide needed data. One way of doing this mounted system will be part of the Indirect Fire Protection is with standoff capabilities similar to those used by pi-

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loted aircraft against surface-to-air The U.S. Army has evaluated missiles. UAS are limited in pay- Boeing’s High-Energy Laser for load—only larger medium-altitude C-RAM and C-UAV missions. long-endurance versions such as the General Atomics Reaper and Preda- with payloads of 1.5-3 kg, and report- tor, IAI Heron TP and Heron I or edly provide the same data collection Elbit Hermes 900 carry payloads capability as much heavier systems that effectively perform standoff mis- BOEING/ERIC SHINDELBOWER operating at high altitude. sions. IAI recently tested a standoff payload, the M-19HD, Employing integral micro-UAS on the front lines would on a Heron I. With up to seven different sensors, including make warfighters less dependent on larger UAS support large-aperture, high-zoom cameras and thermal imagers, it from high command levels. These miniature tactical sys- engaged in persistent surveillance at long range. tems rely on winged or flying-wing platforms, such as the The opposite trend is reducing the size and cost of UAS to AeroVironment RQ-11 Raven and Wasp, IAI Birdeye and enable deployment by tactical elements, where countermea- Elbit Skylark. Pocket-sized versions employ rotary wing or sures aren’t available. Two platforms developed in Israel, the small multi-rotor platforms for missions. British forces in ThunderB from BlueBird and Orbiter 3 from Aeronautics, rep- Afghanistan have used the Black Hornet nano-UAS to gain resent different approaches. Powered by an internal combustion situational awareness for force protection. Black Hornet is engine, ThunderB carries a 3-kg (6.6-lb.) payload on a 20-hr. effectively a “flying camera,” intuitively controlled by the user mission. Orbiter 3, powered by an electric motor, is a flying wing at a range of a few hundred meters. that deploys a 5-kg payload for seven hours. Both are designed Sparrow and Firecast miniature multi-rotor vehicles from for tactical forces at brigade level and Torquing Group are fully autono- below. They are typically equipped mous UAS, even in complex urban terrain, and enable multiple UAVs The Army operates hundreds of AAI to operate in synch with each other. RQ-7B Shadow 200 UAS, config- In fact, Sparrow’s operation system ured to carry multiple payloads in allows one vehicle to operate autono- NOAM ESHEL/AW&ST the payload bay as well as under mously for 20-40 min., or several to wing. Some have been upgraded to swarm. Each Sparrow carries 200 carry miniature weapons, such as grams (14 oz.) of payload that is not Raytheon’s STM or Textron’s Fury. limited to EO. c

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DTI10 APRIL 27-MAY 10, 2015 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY DEFENSE TECHNOLOGY INTERNATIONAL AviationWeek.com/dti Wind Talker

‘Pseudo satellite’ shapes up ANGUS BATEY/AW&ST as communication relay platform Angus Batey Farnborough, England

he record-breaking Zephyr unmanned, solar-powered Airbus Defense and Space technicians build a wing sec- aircraft is undergoing enhancements by operator Air- tion of the Zephyr 8 aircraft. Tbus Defense and Space (AD&S) to increase perfor- mance and expand its payload. mass is an issue. But there is a family of aircraft that we can The system, designated HAPS (High-Altitude Pseudo-Sat- work with for that.” ellite) since its acquisition by AD&S from Qinetiq in 2013, is The refi nements being made to Zephyr 8 over previous intended to meet emerging military and commercial require- iterations off er signifi cant capability gains. New solar cells ments for a surveillance and communications relay platform aff ord a three fold increase in power, and are combined with that is more responsive than a satellite and has far greater larger, improved batteries. persistence than conventional aircraft. “Because [Zephyr 7] was a prototype, we didn’t manage No customers are yet confi rmed for the system, which to embed all of the mass reductions we’d intended,” Kelleher achieved FAI (Federation Aeronautique Internationale) world says. “It was also carrying reserve structural margins on records for duration (14 days, 22 min., 8 sec.) and altitude board. We’ve made Zephyr 8 a bit bigger, to use up those (70,743 ft.) on the fi rst fl ight of the Zephyr 7 confi guration at margins. We’re lightweighting and improving the effi ciency Yuma Proving Ground, Arizona, in 2010. The U.K. Defense on the power subsystems, so there’ll be orders of magnitude Ministry supports the program, most recently by funding a more power coming into the aircraft off the solar array, and fl ight of more than 11 days in 2014, and the U.S. Defense De- a very large improvement in power storage. It’s still a 5g partment has paid for fl ights. Civil applications are targeted ultimate airframe, because we have to go through weather by Airbus, and a fl ight last year, in Dubai, demonstrated systems, and we’re delighted how well it handles wind shear the ability to launch and recover the system near a major and turbulence.” airport. Airbus declines to disclose where the 11-day Zephyr 7 “In remote sensing, the value metric is dollars per square fl ight took place, but a Defense Ministry representative told kilometer of imagery (about 0.4 sq. mi.); in communications a London conference in March that the sortie was fl own from it’s dollars per kilobits/sec. [of bandwidth],” says Paul Brooks, Ascension Island. Flying in the Southern Hemisphere during head of HAPS business development. “If we couldn’t demon- winter enabled Airbus to expand the system’s operational strate a capability to reduce those signifi cantly, Airbus would limits. not be investing.” “Zephyr 7 can stay above the weather, but it depends on In the hangar where the new Zephyr 8 is being built, con- the latitude and time of year,” says Brooks. “We’re extending ventional tools are conspicuous by their absence. The only that window of operations with Zephyr 8, which will stay piece of heavy equipment is a crane, to load crated aircraft above the weather between +/-40 degrees latitude year- onto transport trucks. round.” The slimmed-down manufacturing stems from the design Last year’s fl ights also advanced the program’s regulatory of the 50-kg (110-lb.) aircraft, which has a wingspan of 73 ft. compliance. The Defense Ministry’s Military Aviation Au- Zephyr has to be strong enough to survive gusting and tur- thority certifi ed Zephyr 7 before the Southern Hemisphere bulence during ascent and descent, but at altitude it needs fl ight, and the Dubai fl ight was conducted in partnership with to be lightweight and effi cient. The payload limit of around 5 Dubai Civil Aviation Authority. Despite the weight penalties, kg could increase with a larger airframe. Zephyr fl ies with navigation lights and an ADS-B transpon- “There is no limit to the size, but the economy is met by der, for access to civil airspace. taking advantage of payload technologies to reduce the size “We’ve got a fantastic head start on what you need to have and mass of a payload,” explains Chris Kelleher, program on the aircraft to be allowed to fl y, which is a real issue for technical director and Zephyr’s lead designer. “Once you in- UAVs,” says Brooks. “We’re making sure we’ve got everything troduce carbon optics, we can put on a Zephyr the [electro- in place so the aircraft can be certifi ed, and we’ve already got optic] capability of [the Northrop Grumman RQ-4] Global a strong base for that because we’ve got civil and military Hawk [unmanned aerial vehicle]. There are some payloads authorities involved in the program who are saying they’re —and we’re looking at, maybe, radars for the future—where happy with what we’re doing.” c

The lightweight Zephyr 7 aircraft comes in for landing during a 2014 test fl ight.

AIRBUS DEFENSE & SPACE AviationWeek.com/dti AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY DEFENSE TECHNOLOGY INTERNATIONAL APRIL 27-MAY 10, 2015 DTI11 DEFENSE ANALYSIS

under the fantail of the USS Princeton in February 1991, in Minecraft 50 ft. of water, breaking the structure and causing the ship to “whiplash like a fly rod,” according to a witness. The su- U.S. explores standoff sea mines perstructure cracked and broke free of the hull. Air Force Col. Mike Pietrucha, who took part in the Quick- Bill Sweetman Washington strike-ER trial, notes that the combination of lethality, limited effectiveness and slow speed of mine-clearing operations, and n an almost unpublicized test on Sept. 23, 2014, a Boeing the ability to deploy mines precisely and quickly equate to a B-52H bomber demonstrated a variation on a centuries- new form of mine warfare. Iold tool of naval warfare. Flying north of Guam, the bomb- In offensive mining, Pietrucha writes inAir & Space Power er released an experimental combination of the in-service Journal, “mines with guidance kits can be laid in an unpre- Quickstrike sea-bottom mine with a BSU-104 Joint Direct dictable pattern, making mine clearance that much more Attack Munition-Extended Range (JDAM-ER) wing and tail- difficult,” and the minefield pattern can be tailored to the kit, designated GBU-62B(V1)/B Quickstrike-ER. The weapon depth and width variations of waterways. Harbor mining impacted on target 40 nm downrange. could be as effective against naval forces as it is against ship- Deputy Defense Secretary Robert Work identifies “ad- ping, he notes, and possibly more so since some naval ports vanced aerial mines” as one of the new weapon classes to have restricted approaches—easy to defend against surface be explored under the Third Offset initiative. That is a big combatants or submarine infiltration but susceptible to mine change, given that there has been little investment in new interdiction. Iran’s main naval base at Bandar Abbas, accord- mine technology for decades. ing to Pietrucha, opens on to an anchorage with a breakwater U.S. airborne mining has not changed significantly since that has a gap of only 1,300 ft. the May 1972 Operation Pocket Money mining of Haiphong “For navies that lack an underway replenishment capa- and other North bility, preventing Vietnamese har- naval combatants bors, carried out from returning to by carrier-based refuel and re-arm A-7 and A-6 at- may effectively tack aircraft. The neuter them with- mines used in that out a direct at- campaign were tack,” Pietrucha unguided, and de- writes. “With no livered from low port available, U.S. AIR FORCE/MSGT. KEVIN GRUENWALD altitude to lay a most adversaries dense and con- have little ability sistent field. The to project naval bombers had to be power.” This con- protected by es- sideration applies cort fighters and strongly to fast surface-to-air mis- attack craft and sile coverage from smaller subma- Navy cruisers. rines, which have Quickstrike-ER’s Guided, gliding mines combined with B-52 improvements could yield a new limited endurance accuracy is largely maritime warfare capability for U.S. forces. and range. ir re spective of The technology range provided GPS is available. A standoff weapon, it is deliv- opens the way to new forms of defensive and reactive mine erable by a large bomber that can carry a heavy load of mines. warfare, particularly if the weapons can be delivered by Because of its accuracy, the mine pattern can be controlled stealthy or otherwise survivable platforms, or at even great- more closely than from a low-level unguided release. Two stan- er standoff ranges. (Boeing has been designing and testing a dard air-delivered mines, the 500-lb. Mk62 and 1,000-lb. Mk63, powered JDAM, which combines the wing kit with a small tur- are, respectively, based on Mk82 and Mk83 bombs, which are bine engine.) “Instant minefields” could be dropped ahead of a integrated with JDAM. moving task force. “Anti-ship missile attacks must penetrate There has been one recent improvement in U.S. mine a warship’s air defenses,” says Pietrucha, “but a mine bracket warfare: the introduction and retrofit of the Mk71 target- dropped 30 or 50 nautical miles in front of a task force will not detection device (TDD), a digital, programmable fuze that be intercepted and may not even be recognized.” Minefields senses magnetic, seismic and pressure signatures. It can use could also be created to block amphibious assaults. different target-processing algorithms and counter-counter- Other observers note that China uses air-delivered mines, measures to detect, classify and localize threats, discrimi- has wing and guidance kits similar to JDAM-ER as well as nating between submarines, fast attack craft, air-cushion a growing force of modernized H-6K bombers, and could vehicles and large warships. adopt similar mine-warfare concepts. “They could pull it off, Aside from the TDD, U.S. mines are the most basic type: but they have to get there and [they] don’t have the stealth influence bottom mines designed to explode as a ship passes aircraft now; or they can develop a different risk-tolerance,” over them. However, even these mines are highly lethal. An says Bryan Clark, naval analyst at the Center for Strategic Italian MN103 Manta mine with a 290-lb. charge exploded and Budgetary Assessments. “That will change.” c

DTI12 APRIL 27-MAY 10, 2015 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY DEFENSE TECHNOLOGY INTERNATIONAL AviationWeek.com/dti go on destroyers, thus alterations were needed to put them Mine Set on LCSs. Contractor Lockheed Martin says it worked out many of the bugs and Navy officials are reportedly pleased Performance issues slow with the progress. But in a report released earlier this year, the U.S. Govern- Navy mine-clearing program ment Accountability Office notes RMS delays of six months over the past year, and adds that delivery of initial capability Michael Fabey Washington had previously been delayed by more than seven years. Moreover, the office of the Director, Operational Test and eveloping and deploying an unmanned underwater ve- Evaluation (DOT&E), says in its most recent report, also re- hicle (UUV) to hunt mines is turning out to be difficult. leased this year, that the Pentagon in the fourth quarter of DNonetheless, the U.S. Navy is committed to replacing fiscal 2014 delayed RMS low-rate initial production until the sailors and ships with UUVs for the dangerous mission of third quarter of fiscal 2015. clearing waterways of mines. The RMS, which includes a remote multi-mission vehicle All eyes are on the remote mine-hunting system (RMS) (RMMV) and AN/AQS-20A sonar, “had not demonstrated that is slated for deployment on Littoral Combat Ships (LCS). sufficient performance or successful integration with inter- The RMS includes individual mine-hunting systems that facing LCS systems to demonstrate the Navy’s minimum In- will be launched from large UUV mother ships—54-ft.-long, crement 1 warfighting capability,” DOT&E advised last year. 22-23-in.-dia. platforms the Navy wants to deploy in this de- “Although the Navy is working on upgrades to improve cade or early next. system performance and LCS capability in the version 6.0 There are other UUV systems on the radar. For example, RMMV and the AN/AQS-20A/B sonar, developmental testing the service has deployed the MK18 Mod 2 Kingfish autono- completed [in fiscal 2015] demonstrated continued perfor- mous UUV in the 5th Fleet’s area of responsi- bility (Persian Gulf, Arabian Sea, Red Sea and Indian Ocean), following more than 30 sorties over 15 days of mock deployment testing in the Gulf of Mexico. Kingfish is designed for mine- detection missions and intended to replace the in-theater Swordfish system. The U.S. Navy is promoting the remote mine-hunting system for future countermine missions.

Ensuring the most efficient unmanned mine- hunting system is worth the cost, Navy officials say. Mines have damaged more U.S. warships since World War II than missiles, guns and bombs combined. But clearing mines is a demanding task. One mistake or misinterpretation of data can mean di- saster. Rear Adm. John Ailes, who until recently was in charge of keeping the RMS on track, has U.S. NAVY likened the mission to ballistic missile defense (BMD). mance issues and RMS mission package integration chal- Ailes, now chief engineer for Space and Naval Warfare lenges,” DOT&E stated in this year’s report. Systems Command, notes: “Mine warfare is similar to BMD Solving these issues is critical for RMS success. The sonar- in this way: It’s all about discrimination. What’s the target? equipped RMMV navigates its way into a suspected minefield In BMD you try to figure out the reentry vehicle. They use and captures images, data and other information to deter- penetration aids and all kinds of things to confuse you. In mine the location of mines. It is key to keeping ships and mine warfare,” he continues, “the environment provides that. sailors out of danger. It is more complex. You’ve got trashcans and buoys and vari- The Navy needs the RMMV to operate in the water as ous things that have been thrown overboard from ships, and much as possible. But DOT&E says reliability is a problem. the natural contour of the bottom. And mines are in different Developmental and integrated testing from fiscal 2014 for a parts of the water. Some are at the top, some in the middle, version 4.2 RMMV showed a mean time between operational some at the bottom.” mission failure of 31.3 hr., DOT&E reports. Developmental To provide effective discrimination capability, the Navy is testing completed in the first quarter of this fiscal year outfitting proposed UUVs with sophisticated sensors, teth- yielded a mean time between operational mission failure of ered to a host ship or, in the future, other vehicles through a 34.6 hr. complex and dynamic communications network. Integrating “Statistical analysis of all test data indicates the result all of this and making it work reliably, however, has eluded is not sufficient to conclude that reliability has actually im- engineering efforts thus far. proved since 2010,” DOT&E states. “Test data currently Ailes and other Navy officials identified reliability and re- available do not support the Navy’s assertion that vehicle lated issues early on. Also, the RMS was initially slated to reliability has improved.” c

AviationWeek.com/dti AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY DEFENSE TECHNOLOGY INTERNATIONAL APRIL 27-MAY 10, 2015 DTI13 FIRST PERSON

Hishammuddin Hussein Defense Minister of Malaysia Age: 53 Education: Law degree, University of Wales, 1984; Master of Laws, London School of Economics, 1988 Background: Worked as a lawyer after university, then entered politics. Key government posts: youth and sports minister; education minister; home affairs minister; and since May 16, 2013, defense minister. Hishammuddin was also acting transport minister from May 16, 2013-June 25, 2014. Personal: Married Marsilla Tengku Abdullah, a princess, in 1986. He is also the cousin of Prime Minister Najib Razak. MALAYSIAN DEFENSE MINISTRY MALAYSIAN

search because the area involved—800-2,500 km Maintaining (1,118-1,553 mi.) off western Australia—was too far for your Beechcraft King Air aircraft to access. Does Momentum that spotlight Malaysia’s need for long-range MPA? The deployment of assets was the biggest undertaken. The past year has been challenging for Malaysian Defense Minis- We don’t have Lockheed Martin P-3 Orions or Boeing P-8 ter Hishammuddin Hussein. Low oil prices have depleted procure- Poseidons, but we had both in the search. Chinese Ilyushin ment funds, and in March 2014 the disappearance of Malaysia Il-76s were working alongside U.S., Australian and New Airlines Flight 370 occurred when he was acting transportation Zealand P-3s. The joint effort is something we are proud minister. Current concerns range from greater cooperation among of. Just because we don’t have assets such as long-range Asean (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) members and maritime patrol aircraft doesn’t mean we won’t find ways potential threats from the self-proclaimed Islamic State. Leithen to deploy them. Francis interviewed him in his office about these and other issues. In hindsight, would you have done anything differently? Defense Technology International: Malaysia has re- quirements for fighters to replace the RSK MiG-29s, No. We hope to get to the bottom of this. We will not find the for airborne early warning and long-range maritime answers until we find the black boxes. patrol aircraft (MPA). But with budget pressure be- cause of lower oil prices are these practical? What do you think of Malaysia’s home-grown defense industry? Hussein: If you look at Malaysia’s needs and the present economic climate, we have to ask: ‘Can we afford them?’ Fu- There’s a lot more we can do. I keep telling defense compa- ture procurements will be outlined in the 11th five-year plan nies, don’t just look at Malaysia—look at Asean as a market. that we aim to table this year. The opportunities are huge. We’ve heard that long-range MPA is now a higher pri- What topics will be key in upcoming meetings with ority than fighters. Asean defense ministers?

We have to be creative in securing our security. But we can’t I want to highlight our stand on ISIS. Second, I want to sug- compromise our security even though we don’t have money. gest a United Nations peacekeeping force of all 10 Asean na- Another idea I am exploring is joint assets. Is it not possible tions. Third, I want to highlight humanitarian and relief work for Malaysia, Brunei and Indonesia to work together? Why and establish standard operating procedures [for dealing have separate assets? Sharing assets is a workable solution. with crises] so future Asean leaders have a working template. Is the plan still to retire the MiG-29s this year? Why is an Asean peacekeeping force for overseas mis- sions important? That gets back to affordability and potential threats. That is not for discussion here. If all 10 nations [are involved], it will underscore the unity and solidarity of Asean countries. It would be relatively easy to What is your opinion of the recently released interim establish and run because there are precedents. For example, report into the disappearance of MH370? Malaysia and Brunei already have joint forces in Lebanon.

It is very technical. Things have settled down; earlier I was Is ISIS a threat to Asean? faced with conspiracy theories. My heart goes out to the families; we must continue to engage them and give them It is a mistake to assume Southeast Asia will be isolated confidence that the search will go on. from ISIS. We need to take a stand and be clear that what Malaysia had no MPA capable of assisting in the ISIS is doing is wrong. c

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Produced by: Offi cial Publications: relevant operations tempo at sea with deployable on the small-deck ships on F-35s feature an array of sensors and the short-takeoff-and-vertical-landing which the F-35B will operate. The SOU data links that will require more atten- F35B. “The desired aircraft-ready-for- V2 is required for IOC. tion and offer more capability than the training rate of the F-35B aircraft dur- Though operating with the 2B soft- F-18s and AV-8B Harriers the Marines ing OT-1 is 100%,” Greenberg says. ware, the operational test team will not have been using, according to Marine “This exercise will evaluate the be able to fly with the software patch Corps Maj. Gen. Robert Walsh, Navy full spectrum of F-35B measures of designed by engineers to improve ship- director of expeditionary warfare. suitability and effectiveness to the to-ship “sight picture” sharing. As part The services also need to figure out maximum extent possible,” he notes. of the F-35’s so-called data-fusion attri- the requirements for operating the air- “Specifically, the trial will assess the in- bute, the aircraft are required to share craft with carriers and other ships in tegration of the F-35B while operating targeting data among themselves using the fleet, he says. It will be a learning across the array of flight operations, their Multifunction Advanced Datalinks, process, says Rear Adm. Peter Fanta, maintenance operations and logistical which can operate covertly to preserve director of surface warfare. “We will supply chain support while embarked multiple aircrafts’ stealthy characteris- not be able to bring that data complete- at sea.” The Wasp, an amphibious as- tics in high threat environments. ly aboard on that first deployment,” he sault ship, was also used for the F-35B’s In fact, the OT series is more geared said during the roundtable. “We will first developmental testing sea trials; to demonstrating sortie generation and learn where the gaps are.” the first F-35B vertical landing took maintenance tempo. Ship-to-ship tar- “What are the C5I [command, con- place on its deck in October 2011. geting is not expected during the trials. trol, communications, computers, During the trials, the Marines plan Test pilots at Edwards had reported collaboration] requirements for the to execute numerous day and night problems with targets on the cockpit F-35B? Because they are not going to short takeoffs and landings and con- be how we operated duct “standard” day and night ex- the Harrier,” Walsh tended-range operations, Greenberg Just getting the JSFs and big-deck said April 9, during says. Also part of the testing will be a media roundtable. an assessment of the aircraft-to-ship amphibious ships ready for the first “What is the require- network communications interoper- ment for the F-35 to ability as well as the efficacy of the deployment in fiscal 2018 will be be able to dissemi- landing signals officer’s launch-and- nate data across the recovery software. difficult enough, the admirals say battlefield? What Though Greenberg says operators pipes need to be will assess day and night weapons there?” loading, no live-fire testing is slated; display associated with more than one The learning curve needed to codify most live-fire activities are handled symbol, a sign the system had not fully the integration is likely to prompt frus- for the program by the test force at “fused” the data collected on that tar- tration by some. “There will be disap- Edwards AFB, California. get from multiple F-35s. In some other pointment,” he says, because there will The F-35Bs will be expected to fly in cases, wingmen are not seeing the same be a desire to capture more of that data both optimal and inclement weather: objects other pilots are in multi-ship and information. “Only extreme weather conditions will formations. Just preparing the JSFs and big- halt operations during OT-1,” Green- Program officials opted earlier this deck amphibious ships for the first de- berg says. year to move forward to develop the ployment in fiscal 2018 will be difficult The six aircraft used in the OT-1 tri- software patch to correct the deficien- enough, the admirals say. “It’s a real als will operate with the 2B software cy; they created the code in 22 days, challenge,” Walsh says. package, which was not originally in- according to Joe Dellavedova, F-35 The LHD 1 USS Wasp has already tended for operational use. However, spokesman for the F-35 Joint Program been modified with a reinforced flight delays earlier in the program prompt- Office. deck and a new heat-resistant mate- ed the Marine Corps to prioritize 2B, Marine Corps officials say they are rial to better withstand the exhaust which allows for use with limited weap- confident the 2B package will be suffi- from the F135 engines powering F-35B ons, with no external weapons stations cient for IOC in July; F-35 test officials short takeoffs and vertical landings. approved. Marine Corps officials say hope to have the patch ready for the The LHA 6 USS America will undergo the aircraft will provide better capabil- Marine Corps IOC, however. similar work. ity than the F-18s and AV-8Bs they are The F-35B is slated for its first de- “In the America, the very time-con- intended to replace. ployment to MCAS Iwakuni, Japan, in suming piece is going inside the ship The Marines will also use the 2017. Separate ship trials are slated for and dropping lighting and ventilation Automatic Logistic Information Sys- the F-35C on an aircraft carrier this fall. and piping wiring and everything tem Standard Operating Unit Version 1 As the squadrons ready the aircraft, down far enough so you can install (ALIS SOU V1); this is not the hardware Marine Corps and Navy officials are new material and weld it in place and with which they plan to declare initial also preparing the USS Wasp for the then restore all that stuff,” Rear Adm. operational capability (IOC) and even- trials and laying the groundwork for David Gale, program executive officer tually deploy. An updated hardware the aircraft-to-ship integration that for ships, said during the roundtable. unit, the ALIS SOU V2, is slated for de- will be key to that first deployment in About a dozen modifications are livery for VMFA-121 by early June. This 2017 as well as those to follow. needed for the ships to house the hardware is smaller and designed to be As fifth-generation aircraft, the F-35Bs, he says. c

AviationWeek.com/awst AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/APRIL 27-MAY 10, 2015 41 TOP-PERFORMING COMPANIES 2015 TPC Council of Advisers

Byron Callan Utilitarian Director Capital Alpha Partners

Tom Captain Excellence Vice Chairman, Global A&D Sector Leader Deloitte Latest Top-Performing Companies results confi rm A&D companies run well, above all else Antoine Gelain Managing Director Michael Bruno Washington Paragon European Partners

funny thing happened on the way to the aerospace and Steven Grundman defense industry’s maturation. The companies became Principal, Grundman Advisory good businesses—maybe too good. Lund Fellow at the Atlantic Council A Harlan Irvine Twenty years ago when Aviation Week started its annual review of Top-Per- forming Companies, the concern was that Western A&D companies did not oper- Principal ate well as businesses, at least not compared with other sectors and Wall Street Deloitte benchmarks. While they provided amazing weaponry, airliners and spacecraft, when it came to operating performance, A&D enterprises seemed to lag by decades William Lay automotive, oil and gas, and other industries in basic business prowess. Principal A look at this year’s TPC rankings and results indicates they have learned their PwC lessons well. Not only did A&D as a whole post record revenue for 2014, but many companies simply became operationally better. What is more, this change came Jacob Markish about despite two years of so-called sequestration spending restraints, the histori- Principal cal halving of the price of a barrel of oil, the dramatic strengthening of the U.S. Renaissance Strategic Advisors dollar, airliner disasters and international volatility such as in Ukraine . “The core of the big primes and the U.S. defense industry continue to do really Jim Schwendinger well despite all the angst and observable trauma,” says TPC adviser Jacob Markish, principal at Renaissance Strategic Advisors. “Another measure that was unsurpris- A&D consultant (ret.) ing is that the well-focused and disciplined mid-tier, whether in electronics or in Deloitte one of the commercial parts of the components sector, continues to do very well.” John Stack Above all, the record up-cycle in commercial aerospace, led by the now nine-year backlog of large airliner orders, continues to drive up the whole sector. “The story Managing Director, Aerospace Leader last year, in 2014, was commercial,” says Tom Captain, vice chairman and global The McLean Group

TPC EXTRAS Subscribers to the Aviation Week Intelligence Network can access: ■ AWIN-only rankings of A&D companies with revenues between $250 million and $1 billion ■ Detailed interactive charts of TPC-ranked companies with links to spreadsheets ■ Rankings of more than 100 A&D business segments in 14 categories AWIN.AviationWeek.com/TPC

42 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/APRIL 27-MAY 10, 2015 AviationWeek.com/awst Independent Research and Development Spending (IRAD) U.S. $ billions* $18.5 *For companies with annual fiscal revenues A&D sector leader for Deloitte and a TPC adviser. “The 21.4% exceeding U.S. $20 billion. Amounts are not story will be the same in 2015. There is no bubble.” adjusted for inflation. TPC rankings of publicly traded A&D contractors are $17.3 $17.2 $16.5 $16.4 the result of composite scoring of four equally weighted $16.2 13.7% $16.4 $16.4 performance categories that place signifi cant emphasis 11.5% on operating excellence. They are: return on invested $15.5 capital (ROIC), measuring investment decisions; earn- 4.6% ings performance, i.e., revenue quality and expansion; asset management, or how effi ciently a company em- 0.1% 0.7% -0.6% ploys its resources; and fi nancial health, as in a com- $12.8 pany’s strength, including overall solvency. In turn, the TPC council of advisers this year identi- -6.2% fi ed several common attributes among companies that can claim success in the rankings. For starters, A&D -11.3% companies appear better managed from the top down; even defense units are run as much like commercial 2014201320122011201020092008200720062005 operations as possible. Next, companies are increas- ingly focusing on areas of expertise, becoming dominant IRAD History % Year-Over-Year Change players in niches and shedding non-core operations. “The thing that keeps coming back at me , year after year, is the companies that do well have a proprietary Pension Underfunding position; they know what business they’re in,” says Har- U.S. $ billions* $87.9 lan Irvine, a TPC adviser and Deloitte principal. “The folks that have a defensible position, either they own a $75.9 $75 program of record or they own intellectual property that they can lever. They do a decent job of running $62.7 the business according to the levers that are relevant.” $58.8 $57.6 In defense, companies are trying to develop or har- $52.6 ness commercial technology—like Rockwell Collins and its Pro Line Fusion avionics—to the extent possible rather than the Cold War approach of government- first. And, paradoxically, when focusing a company, $28.7 Top-Performing Companies are buttressing revenue by diversifying customer types and sources, such as by $17.2 boosting international sales, fi nding new clients for cur- $14.3 rent off erings, and even tiptoeing into adjacent markets. Surpassing these trends, however, is the idea that the companies in general are leaner, more effi cient and more productive, per worker. If possible, major assets 2014201320122011201020092008200720062005 and inventories are placed or left in the hands of others, Net Underfunded Pension Plans *For companies with annual fiscal revenues exceeding U.S. $20 billion. Amounts are not adjusted for inflation.

Stock Buybacks vs. IRAD $18.4 U.S. $ billions* *For companies with annual fiscal revenues exceeding U.S. $20 billion

$15.7 $14.6

$12.2 $12

$9.8 107.2% $9.3 96.5% $8.8 84.2% 74.3% 69.1% 73.0% 60.0% $6 60.1% $4.7

32.5% 28.6%

2014201320122011201020092008200720062005 Common Stock Buybacks as % of IRAD HONEYWELL Source: Aviation Week TPC Study AviationWeek.com/awst AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/APRIL 27-MAY 10, 2015 43 TOP-PERFORMING COMPANIES 2015 Aerospace & Defense Rankings

2014 2014 Results Revenue Total Results Revenue Total RANK Company Ending ($ millions) Score RANK Company Ending ($ millions) Score REVENUES GREATER THAN $20 BILLION REVENUES BETWEEN $1-5 BILLION 1 Boeing Dec. 14 $90,762 97 1 Teledyne Technologies Dec. 14 $2,394 67 2 Lockheed Martin Dec. 14 45,600 96 2 Dassault Aviation Dec. 14 4,452 64 3 Honeywell International Dec. 14 40,306 88 3 FLIR Systems Dec. 14 1,531 62 4 Raytheon Dec. 14 22,826 77 4 Harris Dec. 14 4,959 62 5 BAE Systems Dec. 14 24,029 74 5 Hexcel Dec. 14 1,856 56 6 Heico Oct. 14 1,132 51 6 Northrop Grumman Dec. 14 23,979 73 7 Woodward Dec. 14 2,060 49 7 General Dynamics Dec. 14 30,852 73 8 OHB Sep. 14 1,030 46 8 United Technologies Dec. 14 65,100 64 9 Exelis Dec. 14 3,277 46 9 Airbus Group Dec. 14 73,445 56 10 Ultra Electronics Dec. 14 1,112 46 10 Rolls-Royce Dec. 14 21,391 51 11 Cubic Sep. 14 1,398 45 11 Bombardier Dec. 14 20,111 9 12 Elbit Systems Sep. 14 2,919 43 13 Senior Dec. 14 1,278 43 REVENUES BETWEEN $5-20 BILLION 14 CAE Dec. 14 1,975 41 15 Kaman Dec. 14 1,795 40 1 Thales Dec. 14 $15,694 69 16 MTU Aero Engines Dec. 14 4,735 39 2 Rockwell Collins Dec. 14 5,164 69 17 Moog Dec. 14 2,636 39 3 Precision Castparts Dec. 14 10,039 65 18 Esterline Oct. 14 2,051 39 4 Spirit AeroSystems Dec. 14 6,799 65 19 Barnes Group Dec. 14 1,262 39 5 Textron Dec. 14 13,878 62 20 B/E Aerospace Dec. 14 2,599 39 6 Finmeccanica Dec. 14 17,738 54 21 Curtiss-Wright Dec. 14 2,243 39 7 Huntington Ingalls Dec. 14 6,957 54 22 TransDigm Group Dec. 14 2,430 37 8 Safran Dec. 14 18,199 54 23 Saab Dec. 14 3,018 36 9 GKN Dec. 14 10,873 52 24 Meggitt Dec. 14 2,420 35 10 Orbital ATK Dec. 14 5,146 51 25 Triumph Group Dec. 14 3,745 32 11 Zodiac Aerospace Aug. 14 5,482 49 26 GenCorp Nov. 14 1,597 32 27 BBA Aviation Dec. 14 2,290 32 12 Embraer Dec. 14 5,621 45 28 AAR Nov. 14 1,939 30 13 L-3 Communications Dec. 14 12,124 44 29 Cobham Dec. 14 2,884 26 14 Rheinmetall Dec. 14 5,671 42 30 Kennametal Dec. 14 2,898 25 15 Babcock International Group Sep. 14 6,042 38 31 Wesco Aircraft Holdings Dec. 14 1,505 24 16 Serco Group Dec. 14 6,159 1 32 Allegheny Technologies Dec. 14 4,223 23 33 Indra Sistemas Sep. 14 4,064 15 e.g., shipyards with the government instead of defense shipbuild- REVENUES BETWEEN $250 MILLION-$1 BILLION ers, or Tier 1 aerostructure providers instead of the nameplate 1 AeroVironment Apr. 14 $252 97 original equipment manufacturers (OEMs). Liabilities such as 2 Astronics Dec. 14 661 92 pensions, once proverbial albatrosses around the neck of indus- 3 e2v Technologies Mar. 14 363 90 try, are being optimized (see page 46). Finally, free cash flow, 4 Motor Sich Sep. 14 863 85 the money generated and left over after assets are dealt with, 5 National Presto Dec. 14 412 77 is maximized and most of it is returned to shareholders and 6 Esco Technologies Sep. 14 531 75 7 Sparton Jun. 14 336 64 investors (see page 48). 8 RTI International Metals Dec. 14 794 63 “It has to do with the treatment of assets,” says Steven Grund- 9 Magellan Aerospace Dec. 14 726 60 man, a TPC adviser, George Lund Fellow at the Atlantic Council, 10 Jamco Mar. 14 629 59 and former assistant secretary of defense for industrial affairs 11 Chemring Group Oct. 14 645 51 and installations. “Utility-style companies that manage assets 12 Sypris Solutions Dec. 14 355 47 well and generate cash succeed in this model. That does not 13 Sumitomo Precision Products Mar. 14 436 44 tend to be a thing we all celebrate.” 14 KeyW Holding Dec. 14 291 42 For John Stack, managing director and aerospace leader at 15 S&T Dynamics Dec. 14 511 40 the McLean Group, and other advisers, the true measure of a 16 Erickson Dec. 14 347 38 company is in what it makes beyond the financial reports. What 17 Ducommun Sep. 13 742 36 18 DigitalGlobe Dec. 14 655 30 the numbers show and what industry executives and analysts 19 LMI Aerospace Dec. 14 388 29 can point to can be different and worthy of consideration. “It 20 Kratos Defense & Security Dec. 14 868 21 should be about value creation,” he says. Take Boeing, which won both its TPC category ($20 billion or more in annual revenue) and scored the best among all companies type terrorist attack or pandemic flu, which shuts down air (97 this year, and a five-year average of 93). Captain points out that travel—the backlog would slip to just an eight-year wait-list. the leading OEM looks to be on the verge of reaching $100 billion “Boeing is a fundamentally unique company,” Markish a year in revenue in a couple of years, and maybe even next year says. “Their commercial operations . . . effectively constitute when the company marks its 100th anniversary. If no new airliners half of a hugely valuable duopoly and [it] has consistently were ordered this year due to a cataclysmic event—think a 9/11- known how to make money.” Results from 2014 do not rep-

44 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/APRIL 27-MAY 10, 2015 AviationWeek.com/awst Business Segment Winners – Fiscal 2014 Average 5-Year Ranking Average 5-Year RANK Category Company Business Segment RANK Company Score REVENUES GREATER THAN $500 MILLION REVENUES GREATER THAN $20 BILLION Multiple Units Within a Single Category Are Aggregated 1 Boeing 93 1 Avionics/Flight Management/Control Systems Woodward Aerospace/Energy 2 Lockheed Martin 90 2 Business Aircraft Embraer Executive Jets 3 BAE Systems 80 3 Subsystems/Subassemblies Eaton Aerospace 4 Rolls-Royce 79 4 Missile & Weapons Systems Lockheed Martin Missiles & Fire Control 5 Honeywell International 75 5 Military Aircraft Lockheed Martin Aeronautics 6 Raytheon 75 6 Naval Systems General Dynamics Marine Systems 7 Northrop Grumman 73 7 Commercial Aircraft Embraer Commercial 8 General Dynamics 68 7 Rotorcraft Textron Bell Helicopter 9 United Technologies 65 8 Forgings/Castings/Precision Components Curtiss-Wright Commercial Industrial 10 Airbus Group 54 8 Civil & Military Training & Support Services Northrop Technical Services 11 Bombardier 30 9 Radars/Sensors/Electronic Warfare/C4ISR FLIR Surveillance/Instruments/OEM/Maritime/Security 9 Propulsion Safran Aerospace Propulsion REVENUES BETWEEN $5-20 BILLION 10 Space Systems Lockheed Martin Space Systems 1 Rockwell Collins 82 11 Land Systems Oshkosh Defense 2 Precision Castparts 73 Note: Ranked by fiscal 2014 median category scores 3 GKN 64 4 Thales 62 resent a new era or new direction “It is business as usual at a macro level.” 5 Safran 61 Yet while the OEM and Pentagon prime is eyeing or pursuing new pro- 6 Rheinmetall 59 grams like a “middle-of-the-market” 757-replacement airliner or the U.S. 7 Orbital ATK 53 Air Force Long-range Strike Bomber, these are seen more as derivative 8 Textron 51 innovations. Boeing Chairman and CEO Jim McNerney last year famously 9 Embraer 49 declared no more “Moonshots” when it comes to development efforts, and 10 Zodiac Aerospace 49 the company has been reaping the benefit of its steady market dominance 11 L-3 Communications 46 12 Babcock International Group 45 for years. 13 Finmeccanica 45 TPC advisers recognize that it took Boeing a lot of investment and 14 Spirit AeroSystems 38 innovation—as well as some course corrections—to reach this point. 15 Serco Group 34 Five to six years ago, the company’s problems with major programs and customers were headline news, and TPC advisers at the time criticized REVENUES BETWEEN $1-5 BILLION both management execution and program performance. Now it is “smooth 1 Teledyne Technologies 71 sailing,” one adviser says. 2 FLIR Systems 66 The company is not only reaping the benefit of earlier investments and 3 Harris 60 corrective actions, the learning curve is being extended into other pro- 4 Cubic 58 grams. In February a reorganization of Boeing Defense, Space and Security 5 Ultra Electronics 57 6 Dassault Aviation 54 was announced that resulted in a new entity—the BDS Development office. 7 OHB 52 Modeled after a similar unit in Boeing Commercial Airplanes, the office “will 8 Heico 52 address development risks and affordability.” Six programs now managed 9 Hexcel 50 elsewhere in BDS will be the first to be overseen by BDS Development, in- 10 Woodward 50 cluding the USAF KC-46 aerial refueling tanker and NASA Space Launch 11 MTU Aero Engines 48 System rocket. 12 Saab 46 Still, for an industry that can claim hypersonic vehicles, landing humans 13 Senior 46 on the Moon, and helping to build—here in the U.S.—what is arguably 14 GenCorp 45 the most powerful military on Earth, the emphasis on shareholder value 15 Elbit Systems 43 maximization and relatively lower independent research and development 16 TransDigm Group 43 are less inspiring to many observers (see charts, page 43). It also comes 17 CAE 42 18 Triumph Group 41 as Pentagon officials are pushing their so-called Third Offset strategy for 19 Cobham 40 technology development, with a soon-to-be-unveiled Long-range R&D 20 B/E Aerospace 39 Plan crafted with industry in mind. 21 Meggitt 39 TPC advisers such as Byron Callan, a director at Capital Alpha Part- 22 Moog 37 ners, say they see potential changes coming to industry’s makeup as 23 Kaman 36 managers and directors shift their focus to longer-term positioning. In 24 Esterline 36 2016-18, the “overwhelming” investor focus on defense contractor capital 25 Kennametal 36 deployment could give way to accommodation of the Pentagon’s changing 26 Wesco Aircraft Holdings 35 acquisition practices and emerging competition. 27 Indra Sistemas 35 “Managements that do not make strategic decisions on their participa- 28 Curtiss-Wright 34 tion in defense but overwhelmingly deploy capital in favor of shareholders 29 BBA Aviation 31 30 Barnes Group 30 could be caught flat-footed by these changes,” Callan cautions. 31 AAR 29 Stack agrees: “You can only lever to pay buybacks and dividends and 32 Allegheny Technologies 27 everything else for so long. You can’t save your way to greatness.” c

AviationWeek.com/awst AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/APRIL 27-MAY 10, 2015 45 TOP-PERFORMING COMPANIES HOW IT WORKS, WALL STREET’S IN BRIEF TAKE viation Week’s Top-Performing Companies (TPC) ranking all Street’s outlook on the aerospace and defense Amethodology this year incorporated changes that subtly Windustry and its companies can be a universe apart but significantly influenced the results. from Top-Performing Companies (TPC) and other rankings, Chief among the changes was that prior-year results and fi- and 2015 is no exception. nancial statements were calibrated within a 14-year time frame To be sure, traders of publicly held stock and debt of 2000-13, versus the 12 years of 1998-2009 in earlier TPC have always had a different perspective than aviators, assessments. This was done in an effort to achieve more ac- engineers, warfighters and even industry managers. curate and complete data comparisons, including full business Traders focus on making money, of course, while the oth- cycles, across the aerospace and defense industry. Also starting ers often put a higher value on advances in technology, this year, Reuters Eikon was the underlying database, replacing safety and efficiency. Standard & Poor’s Capital IQ. For traders, the method for making money typically Other changes for 2015 reflect recommendations by the revolves around changes in stock prices, as well as share TPC Council of Advisers regarding treatment of independent repurchases, dividends, debt transactions and other invest- research and development (IRAD), as well as goodwill relief ment plays. Hence, Wall Street can favor individual A&D from mergers and acquisitions. The advisers and Aviation Week companies or the sector as a whole, even as others lament agreed that companies should not be unduly affected by pursu- mediocre program performance (see page 50) or share- ing IRAD and strategic portfolio-shaping activities. In turn, IRAD holder value maximization that may come at the cost of was added back to calculations for operating profits, as in some research investments (see page 48). previous TPC reviews. In turn, companies like Precision Castparts (No. 3 in its Asset-based metrics with a goodwill component, meantime, TPC category) and Spirit AeroSystems (No. 4) are recom- were revised to roll in new additions to goodwill over a five-year mended as stock “buys” by a slim majority of financial period—rather than wholly in the year of acquisition—if the initial analysts who cover them—the first has been on an acqui- change in goodwill-to-total-assets ratio exceeded 5%. sition binge, and the second is considered a turnaround Aviation Week believes none of these changes, by themselves, story—even though they do not lead their TPC categories have led to decisive differences in final TPC results. But taken or five-year averages. Not surprisingly, TPC-leader Boeing together, they lead to different rankings than would have been de- also is seen as a “buy” by most professional stock pickers. termined under earlier TPC reviews. A full explanation of the TPC Yet Lockheed Martin (TPC No. 2) sees more than twice methodology can be found online at AviationWeek.com. c as many “hold” recommendations as “buys,” according to LOCKHEED MARTIN has reason to boast (see Engineering page 42). Thanks, that is, to its retirees. The Numbers If not for a growing tailwind benefit of how Pensions, foreign-exchange hedging Lockheed accounts for its pension liabilities, as and other accounting moves well as its experienced foreign-exchange (FX) boost A&D appearances hedging and other asset- management accounting Michael Bruno Washington moves, Lockheed’s 2014 financial results and TPC ockheed Martin had a fantastic 2014, by the numbers. scores would look worse. Lockheed Martin CFO Bruce With sales revenue of $45.6 billion and net earnings Indeed, they could look Tanner sees the company L above $3.6 billion, it seems little wonder the prime significantly worse if the generating “organic” growth Pentagon provider was barely nosed out by Boeing in win- final numbers reflected in 2016. In the meantime, ning the 2015 Aviation Week Top-Performing Companies only the suburban Wash- pension treatments will help. category for their peer group. Indeed, with a 2015 TPC ington-based contractor’s score of 96—behind Boeing’s 97—and a five-year running core business operations, especially as Pentagon budgets average of 90 (Boeing, 93), Lockheed is otherwise well have flatlined in recent years. above the rest of the aerospace and defense industry, and For instance, Lockheed’s cash from operations for 2014

46 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/APRIL 27-MAY 10, 2015 AviationWeek.com/awst Dow Jones & Co. data. That is despite high annual and five-year tinue to offset budgetary pressure for defense contractors,” TPC scores that—after Boeing—far exceed the rest of industry. says Moody’s Investors Service. One reason cited by analysts is a lack of organic growth from According to Moody’s, “favorable” air traffic trends and “ro- core operations (see article below). bust” airline profitability will continue to support sustained com- Still, as a whole, analysts continue to suggest A&D as an mercial demand. And despite lower oil prices that could dilute investment sector for their clients, albeit with more caution this incremental replacement demand for airliners, fleet expansion year than last. One concern is that the U.S. federal budget is should be largely unaffected. Above all, record backlogs provide again uncertain as Congress wrestles with the potential return an “ample” cushion if there are greater-than-expected order of so-called sequestration spending caps. “The budget will be deferrals and/or cancellations. “Demand fundamentals remain key for the sector,” say Sanford C. Bernstein analysts. “It is prob- strong in the commercial aerospace sector,” Moody’s says. ably too early for management teams to know where their pro- Moody’s said April 1 that it expects overall operating profit gram budgets are headed in fiscal 2016.” growth for the A&D sector of 2-4% during the next 12-18 But analysts expect brighter days ahead, nonetheless. months, an improvement from a December forecast of flat to 2% “The outlook for defense contractors has improved, as mili- growth for 2015. tary spending in the core U.S. market is now heading back up, Based on stock prices, RBC said April 13 that the global A&D complementing budget growth in Asia and the Middle East, sector it covers has rallied by 212% since March 2009, 63% and potential stability in Europe,” say RBC Capital Markets over the S&P 500 index’s growth. c analysts. After the financial crisis of 2008, the Great Recession and the end of the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, “U.S. defense spending looks to have troughed in 2015.” In the meantime, commercial aero- space remains an attractive niche seg- ment and can carry the whole sector into profit. “Our stable outlook reflects our expectations that strong demand for large commercial aircraft will con-

Precision Castparts’ drive to be a PRECISION CASTPARTS leading provider of aerospace and defense parts pleases Wall Street.

was $3.9 billion after making a discretionary, advance pen- only expected to gain steam (AW&ST Oct. 13, 2014, p. 50). sion-liability contribution of $2 billion. That compared to “It’s based on the growth in their pension,” says Byron cash from operations for 2013 of $4.5 billion after pension Callan, a widely followed defense industry analyst at Capital contributions of $2.25 billion. Alpha Partners and a TPC adviser. And even as those pension payments may sound robust, “Some of these numbers are going to be driven more by Lockheed still had a “large” pension deficit of $11.2 billion at these swings in the pendulum and the [federal contractor ac- the end of 2014, according to Fitch Ratings. Yet executives counting] rules, the Financial Accounting Standards rules on said in January they do not plan to make any more payments pension treatment,” Callan says. “It’s fascinating if you look through 2017. at forward analyst projections, particularly for some of the In the meantime, pension income swung to $376 million large U.S. primes; they’re going to show pretty good earnings for 2014 after a $482 million loss the year before, in part growth over the next couple of years.” due to arcane accounting treatments and benefits enjoyed Callan says the benefit was most pronounced at Lockheed, by federal contractors. That income stream should only but other companies on the TPC list also bask in the after- improve. glow of financial engineering. “We expect Lockheed Martin will be the industry’s big- “They will be the top-performing firms when it’s really gest beneficiary of rapidly growing pension expense re- not something that’s coming from how they fundamentally coveries over the next several years,” Moody’s Investors manage their programs as much as it is from the fact that, Service says. as in Lockheed’s case, they’ve prepaid a lot of their pension In looking over 2014 results, the TPC Council of Ad- plan,” he says. “They’ll recover that under the cash roll.” visers noted the strong and growing effect of pensions, Companies in the two top TPC peer groups also are col- FX and other bookkeeping in annual financial results. lectively doing a “very good job” of hedging their interna- More than any other factor, pension treatments increas- tional revenue mix denominated in other than their native ingly are underpinning A&D results, an effect that is currencies, according to industry analyst Mike Lowry,

AviationWeek.com/awst AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/APRIL 27-MAY 10, 2015 47 TOP-PERFORMING COMPANIES who compiles TPC scores as a service for Aviation Week. Analysts see the numbers play out in many other For example, even as the U.S. dollar approached an almost ways, too. One so-called quality-of-earnings measure- fi ve-year-high value compared with other currencies last ment that Wall Street tracks is the Dupont calculation. year, TPC companies in the over-$20 billion revenue cat- According to Investorpedia.com and Lowry, return on egory lost only $421 million in FX eff ects on cash via hedging. equity (ROE) is a closely watched number indicating how That is down from $505 million in 2013. In 2014, Boeing lost a company’s management does in creating value. But it just $87 million while many companies such as Lockheed can be misleading, too. The advanced Dupont model de- reported no change. fines the percentage contribution of a ROE result from

panies to return cash to them,” Callan Infl ated Expectations notes. “Your primary focus becomes cash fl ow at the expense of almost ev- Stock buybacks and dividends are erything else.” What troubles Callan and other soaking up industry’s free cash fl ow TPC advisers—and many A&D ob- servers, including some former chief Anthony L. Velocci, Jr. New York executives—is that contractors may be shortchanging their future by un- hareholders in aerospace and billion, or 159% of its free cash fl ow to der investing in R&D as the preferred defense have never had it so investors. At General Dynamics, share means of creating long-term value. In Sgood. repurchases and dividends consumed addition, they believe the strategy of The largest publicly traded compa- $4.2 billion, 131% of free cash fl ow; at creating short-term value by returning nies in recent years have generated Boeing, $8.1 billion, 123%; Lockheed so much cash to shareholders is simply billions of dollars in free cash fl ow, as Martin, $3.7 billion, 120%; and at BAE, unsustainable. defi ned by operating cash fl ow minus $571 million, or 263%. Companies are creating false expec- capital expenditures, with most of it United Technologies—which last fall tations, according to Jacob Markish, a returned to shareholders in the form saw a headline-making abrupt turnover TPC adviser and principal of consulting of dividend increases and stock repur- of CEOs —returned $3.5 billion, or 71% fi rm Renaissance Strategic Advisors. chases. In investment circles, the strat- of its free cash fl ow. It plans to double “Eventually shareholders will be in for egy is commonly known as shareholder share repurchases and increase divi- a rude awakening as companies realize value maximization. dends by about 8% in 2015, while draw- they need to concentrate on more stra- In most cases, it has driven compa- ing down research and development tegic, longer-term goals,” he says. nies’ market valuations to historic lev- (R&D) spending. Historically, when A&D companies els. “They’ve been monster stocks,” said The practice is not unique to the generated large amounts of free cash, Byron Callan, a director at Capital Al- A&D industry. General Electric re- they have tended to invest in new prod- pha Partners, an independent strategic cently announced a multibillion-dollar ucts and technologies, Callan points policy adviser to fi nancial institutions. share buyback plan. “It is an industry- out. In the last 10 years, the focus has In 2014, Northrop Grumman was wide phenomenon across many mature shifted to owners, with a huge jump the most aggressive, funneling $3.3 sectors—shareholders pressuring com- in dividend payouts and share repur-

2014 Free Cash Flow (FCF) and Investments

Northrop Grumman General Dynamics Lockheed Martin

$3.4 billion $3.2 billion (105% FCF) $2.7 billion $3.0 billion (131% FCF) $1.9 billion $1.8 billion $2.0 billion (63% FCF) (58% FCF) $0.822 billion $0.6 billion (26% FCF) (28% FCF)

Free Share Dividends Free Share Dividends Free Share Dividends Cash Flow Repurchases Cash Flow Repurchases Cash Flow Repurchases

48 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/APRIL 27-MAY 10, 2015 AviationWeek.com/awst operating and/or debt sources, i.e., financial engineering. In the end, TPC advisers suspect that if pension treat- Across the top TPC category (revenue-weighted), 30.2% ments could be stripped out of calculations, then BAE Sys- of ROE was attributable to fi nancial engineering in 2014. At tems (No. 5), Airbus Group (No. 9) and Rolls-Royce (No. Boeing, it was 29%; Lockheed, 57.1%; Honeywell Internation- 10) might all move up in the Top 10 listing of the highest, al, 27.7%; Raytheon, 22.2%; BAE Systems, 44.9%; Northrop over-$20 billion annual revenue category. General Dynam- Grumman, 34.1%; General Dynamics, 19.4%; United Tech- ics, which accounts for its pension diff erently than other nologies, 29.8%; and Airbus Group, 17.8%. Rolls-Royce’s was primes, might too, as the way it handles its pension now not measurable. does not let it enjoy the same benefi ts. c

chases (AW&ST June 9, 2014, p. 49). In quirements,” he said. for research, development, test and 2000, the total was less than $1 billion Still, some contractors claim the engineering (RDT&E) dropped more industry-wide, he noted. “This raises Pentagon is not providing enough in- than 21%. the question of whether companies’ centive to justify more investment in Meanwhile, the U.S. risks losing other two constituents—customers and R&D. “We don’t see many good oppor- dominance. “European companies are employees—are getting a fair break.” tunities that will generate attractive competing harder on pricing and ad- Not all primes have rushed to re- returns,” L-3 Communications CFO vances in technology, and they have turn everything to shareholders; Gen- Ralph D’Ambrosio said at the same con- more support from their governments eral Dynamics and Raytheon had been ference. The company returned about for RDT&E-type funding,” Captain says. relative laggards. Last year, Raytheon 117% of free cash fl ow to shareholders The industry also is facing the prospect returned 88% of its free cash flow to in 2014. of increasing competition from the shareholders. “Management’s prior- Raytheon has been leading some of commercial sector. ity is growth, so they are stepping up its peers in communicating to investors Nonetheless, many senior A&D man- company-funded R&D in such high- that they intend to continue allocating agers, including some who have retired, priority areas as cyber and “anti-access resources toward their future while try- insist the industry is spending enough and area denial-related technologies,” ing to take care of their shareholders, on IRAD, and that the real problem is according to Jim McAleese, founder of according to Markish. “As the run-up the government’s lack of commitment McAleese & Associates, which provides in share prices begins to taper off , other to greater RDT&E spending. consulting and legal services to govern- contractors will need to fi gure out how Referring to the imbalance between ment contractors. to prepare their investors for a shift short-term and longer-term capital- Raytheon Chairman and CEO Tom they will have to make in their capital- deployment strategies, Callan bristles Kennedy told a financial conference allocation policy,” he says. at the suggestion that there are no in- at the end of 2014 that his company’s So-called independent R&D (IRAD) vestment opportunities. “Some of the share repurchase program would con- by contractors has been steadily de- greatest game-changing innovations in tinue, but it also planned to allocate clining since 2010, according to Tom the past were created when contractors more of its capital to acquisitions and Captain, a TPC adviser who leads the chose to accept more business risk, al- next-generation technologies. “When global A&D practice of Deloitte Con- lowing them to conceive technologies defense spending rebounds, we expect sulting. Among U.S. companies, it fell and create new markets that previously our investments will be well matched 12.3% in the last five years, while the didn’t exist,” he says.” “Some companies with the customer’s most pressing re- Defense Department’s baseline budget have lost sight of their legacy.” c

Boeing Billions of dollars are being returned to shareholders, causing some industry observers to question whether companies are $6.6 billion shortchanging their R&D investment. $6.0 billion (91% FCF)

BAE Systems Raytheon

$1.1 billion $1.8 billion $2.1 billion $0.84 billion (193% FCF) $0.745 billion (32% FCF) $0.4 billion (47% FCF) (41% FCF) $0.6 billion (77% FCF)

Free Share Dividends Free Share Dividends Free Share Dividends Cash Flow Repurchases Cash Flow Repurchases Cash Flow Repurchases

AviationWeek.com/awst AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/APRIL 27-MAY 10, 2015 49 TOP-PERFORMING COMPANIES

(-1% price growth, 0.5 years sched- British Is Best? ule slippage), Boeing (24%, 1.1 years), Northrop (-3%, 2 years), GD (-4%, Top-Performing Companies and top Pentagon none), Raytheon (-2%, none), Hunting- ton Ingalls Industries (21%, 0.8 years), performers are not the same and Oshkosh (13%, -0.7 years). Yet when it came to the best-per- Michael Bruno Washington forming providers as named by the U.S. armed services and the Defense Logis- lthough it may not pay to per- tracts over 14 fi scal years through 2013. tics Agency in their three-tier “superior form well for the Pentagon per In turn, many companies can be supplier” lists, BAE was regularly cited. Ase, somewhere down the line evaluated using longer-term results For example, BAE Electronic Systems there could be a payoff for being a available in both surveys that paint was named a top-tier performer by the master of the Iron Triangle. bigger, albeit circumstantial, pictures. Air Force and Army, and second tier That is one plausible conclusion after One point of particular interest is that by the Navy Department. BAE Global comparing the latest Top-Performing the best contractor across the TPC Combat Systems also made the Army’s Companies (TPC) from Aviation Week and Pentagon surveys seems to be top tier. BAE Systems Land and Arma- with the most recent list of “superior Britain’s BAE Systems. ments is on the Navy’s second- and Ar- suppliers” and prime contractors on In TPC results covering 2014 fi nan- my’s third-tier lists. And BAE Systems major defense acquisition programs cials, BAE ranked fi fth in its category, Intelligence and Security is in the Air from the U.S. Defense Department. and over a fi ve-year period it came in Force’s third tier. While TPC has been published since the third, behind Boeing and Lockheed Not surprisingly, Boeing and Lock- mid-1990s, this is the fi rst time results Martin, respectively (see page 42). heed Martin units also are prevalent in can be weighed against new contractor In Pentagon performance rankings the superior supplier lists, particularly performance rankings released by the on schedule growth in development for the Air Force. At the same time, Pentagon since last summer. programs, however, “BAE Systems the TPC advisory council as a whole To be sure, TPC and Pentagon data had the best performance (with no viewed BAE as a “challenged organi- do not provide an “apples-to-apples” schedule growth on any of its six con- zation, operationally and fi nancially.” comparison directly because the data tracts),” according to the June report. It may have suff ered from an overreli- being measured is different—e.g., fi- Likewise, in price growth from 2000 to ance on U.S. land warfare business tied nancial performance in TPC versus 2013, BAE notched a -3% result—a far to the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, cost and schedule performance by the cry from other primes like Boeing (8% and BAE’s “value creation” as a busi- Pentagon. growth), Lockheed (37%), Northrop ness in recent years has been pegged But TPC data also show a company’s Grumman (41%), General Dynamics to acquired business lines, not neces- average score over five years, up to (22%) and Raytheon (32%). sarily organic growth. 2014, while the Performance of the De- Although BAE was not named by In the end, BAE may not be leading fense Acquisition System report last the Pentagon when it listed price and the pack of its TPC peers, but it is June from the Defense Department schedule growth by prime contrac- managing its business portfolio, and measured price and schedule growth tors in production contracts, competi- performing relatively well for the in development and production con- tors were. These included: Lockheed Pentagon. c The Pentagon may want to look farther northeast, to the U.K., to fi nd its overall-best contractor. WIKIMEDIA/MSGT. KEN HAMMOND USAF

50 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/APRIL 27-MAY 10, 2015 AviationWeek.com/awst ROCKET LAB

SPACE Electric Rocket Rocket Lab plans weekly launches using battery-powered turbopumps Frank Morring, Jr., and Guy Norris Colorado Springs ocket Lab, a sounding rocket and

launch vehicle company co-locat- ROCKET LAB Red in the U.S. and New Zealand, is preparing to begin testing a smallsat launcher dubbed Electron that would Hot-fire testing sets up the Ruth- use battery-powered turbomachinery erford engine for suborbital flight and other innovations to hold the cost on the Electron launch vehicle by per mission below $5 million. year-end. The company, which received U.S. Defense Department funding before vehicle,” Beck says. The Electron is “the branching into commercial develop- crux of the project and is aimed at what ment, unveiled its Rutherford engine at is expected to be a huge growth of 60% the 31st Space Symposium here April or more in the small satellite business 13-16. The engine uses high-perfor- over the next five years,” he says. mance brushless DC electric motors to The company is banking on the light- drive its liquid oxygen and kerosene tur- weight structure of its two-stage vehicle bomachinery, drawing power from lith- and the power-to-weight efficiency of ium polymer batteries. The approach, the Rutherford engine to make a cost says CEO Peter Beck, eliminates the breakthrough in the small-satellite complex valves and other plumbing re- Rocket Lab’s Rutherford engine will launch market. Rocket Lab is targeting quired to use hot gas to turn turboma- use battery-powered turbo pumps, a cost per launch of $4.9 million, which chinery, boosting efficiency from 50% additive manufacturing and other it says will reduce the average orbital for a typical gas generator cycle to 95%. innovations to help hold mission delivery costs by 95% versus the cur- “For us it was really about decou- costs below $5 million. rent launch infrastructure and its large pling that thermodynamic problem,” reliance on ride-share payloads. Beck says. “And the beauty with an A former Crown Research engineer, In another effort to increase efficien- electric turbopump is that it takes that Beck established Rocket Lab with the cy and hold down cost, Rocket Lab is really complicated problem and turns support of seed-investor Mark Rocket, building the regeneratively cooled en- it into software.” an Internet entrepreneur who changed gine using 3-D, additive-manufacturing Each Rutherford engine has two elec- his name from Mark Stevens. techniques that include laser and elec- tric motors the size of a soda can, Beck “In 2009, we launched R-1, our first tron-beam sintering, with Inconel and says, one for each propellant. The small sounding rocket, on a suborbital ballis- titanium powder as the feedstock. motors generate 50 hp while spinning at tic arc,” Beck says. “That got the atten- Nine of the engines will be used to 40,000 rpm, which is “not a trivial prob- tion of agencies in the U.S., particularly power the 59-ft.-tall Electron vehicle, lem,” he says. “The battery technology Darpa.” Rocket Lab subsequently stud- which will have a total combined thrust is also a little bit special. We’re drawing ied and tested propellant and launcher of 27,000 lb. at liftoff, with a targeted huge currents and huge energies from technologies for Darpa, Lockheed Mar- peak thrust of 34,000 lb. during ascent. those batteries to provide the energy, tin and the U.S. Operationally Respon- The second stage will be powered by a but really it just provides such a simpli- sive Space Office. 4,000-lb.-thrust vacuum variant of the fied and efficient system,” he adds. “In 2013, the company reached a Rutherford engine, essentially identical The efficiency is needed for the com- crossroads,” says Beck. “Did we want to to the main-stage engine but with an ex- pany’s business model, which foresees follow the road of being a U.S. defense tended nozzle. customers with payloads weighing up to contractor? Or did we want to get into Beck says that commonality extends 100 kg (220 lb.) launching into 500-km the commercialization of space, which down to the fastener level, with stan- (310-mi.) sun-synchronous orbits or to is always what I wanted to do? So we dardized parts used wherever possible inclinations as low as 46 deg. The pay- chose the latter.” to lower costs. For efficiency at the loads can be readied for flight at the cus- The company secured additional launch site, the Electron upper stage is tomer’s own facility and then shipped to funding in late 2013 under the New designed for independent payload inte- the launch site, which is under construc- Zealand government’s Callaghan In- gration before it is literally bolted onto tion in New Zealand at a location Beck novation Growth Grants program, and the top of the main stage with four bolts. says is still “a closely guarded secret.” since then “we have been flying under “The first flight is scheduled for the The company has about 30 “commit- the radar for about a year, working on end of this year and the program is ments” from customers, he says. the development of the Electron launch pretty mature,” Beck says. c

AviationWeek.com/awst AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/APRIL 27-MAY 10, 2015 51 TECHNOLOGY

Icing Invention In icing conditions in the tunnel, the wing section with HeatCoat applied Easy-to-apply icing protection aimed at (right side) is free of ice. unmanned aircraft and general aviation have the capability within their power budget,” he says. The system can provide anti-icing to prevent ice formation while an air- craft flies though icing conditions or can deice the leading edges once ice has formed. “When transiting through icing, the ground control station can turn on the system, [which then] will operate automatically,” says Gorenflo. Deicing can use less power than anti-icing, but “some platforms have control issues in icing for which anti- ice is the best solution. In some cases we can use anti-icing while deicing Graham Warwick Washington BATTELLE PHOTOS other parts of the airframe,” he says. Battelle has funded development .S. research and development tion,” he says, adding that the system of HeatCoat internally, with support organization Battelle is ready is much lighter than thermal blankets, from the U.S. Air Force in fiscal 2010- Uto flight-test a carbon-nanotube does not affect the structural charac- 12. “We made a major investment in coating that can protect unmanned teristics of the aircraft and does not 2013-14 and will continue to invest in and general-aviation aircraft from involve consumables, unlike the fluid- flight test,” Gorenflo says. icing with a low weight penalty and power consumption, enabling opera- tion in adverse weather. Top Coating BATTELLE CONCEPT Barrier Coating Icing protection is rare in unmanned Heater Coating Primer Coating aircraft, limiting the conditions in which they can be flown, but conven- Aircraft Surface tional anti-ice and deice systems can be too costly, heavy and power-hungry. Power Off Power On Battelle’s HeatCoat technology dis- A heating layer is applied between perses carbon nanotubes into aircraft paint to make a conductive coating the primer and barrier coatings that heats up like a resistor when elec- under the paint top coat. trical power is applied. The coating can be sprayed on to conform to air- craft surfaces or applied as a laminate. Early in February, Battelle placed The laminate form comes as a section of wing and the engine inlet premanufactured of an unidentified unmanned aircraft carbon-nanotube panels. in a major manufacturer’s icing tun- nel for tests that took the system to technology readiness level 6, says Ron Gorenflo, HeatCoat program manager. “We performed a lot of testing over the last 18 months to identify and lock down the materials. Now that we have “We are talking to manufacturers a stable technology, the next step is to as well as the user community on the scale up to flight test,” he says. government and GA [general aviation] Both the spray and laminate ver- sides and they are very interested,” sions were tested in the icing tunnel. based icing protection used in general- Gorenflo adds. He expects a customer “HeatCoat sprays on like a paint and aviation aircraft. to emerge within the next 6-8 months. is very thin as applied, conforming to For unmanned aircraft, the power “We have been heading down the complex curves, so it maintains the required for icing protection can be a path of UAV first, but they may not be wing’s aerodynamic performance,” challenge. “Some [UAVs] do not have the first [to move],” he says. Battelle has says Gorenflo. The laminate version a power budget, but HeatCoat is the the capacity to provide integration kits uses premanufactured heater panels. most efficient electrothermal system for a number of aircraft but could seek “HeatCoat is a retrofittable solu- there is. The ones we have looked at a partner for the wider GA market. c

52 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/APRIL 27-MAY 10, 2015 AviationWeek.com/awst Your #1 News Source For EBACE 2015

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AVIATION WEEK NETWORK TECHNOLOGY

developing the flight control comput- Defining Defiant ers and cockpit interface units. Lord is providing the active vibration-control Suppliers invest as Sikorsky and Boeing move system and Honeywell the integrated vehicle health management computer. closer to advanced rotorcraft demonstrator The Defiant’s cockpit “is just what is basic to flying the aircraft,” says Don- Graham Warwick Washington nelly, noting that a second phase of the JMR program will demonstrate omponents for the SB-1 Defiant testbed [PSTB] will come on line early mission-system technology. “We are high-speed rotorcraft will begin in 2017 to test the dynamic compo- trying to reuse what we can from exist- Carriving at Sikorsky and Boeing nents,” says Pat Donnelly, Boeing’s ing programs.” Aitech is supplying the this year as the team begins building JMR program manager. mission computer, Garmin the radio, the system integration laboratory, pro- The 230-kt.-cruise Defiant will have L-3 the displays and Northrop Grum- pulsion system testbed and eventually rigid coaxial rotors and a tail-mounted man the inertial navigation unit. the flight vehicle for the U.S. Army’s propulsor with clutch, all driven by Sikorsky went through a similar sup- Joint Multi-Role (JMR) technology two Honeywell T55 turboshaft engines. plier selection process for its industry- demonstration. “The PSTB will validate all the systems funded effort to build two prototypes of The team has announced 48 suppli- are working and allow us to get some the S-97 Raider high-speed light tacti- ers for the Defiant, with more selections time on the components,” says Donnelly. cal helicopter, the first of which is being to come. Two-thirds of the companies Structures partners are Swift En- prepared for flight, but the JMR selec- listed are partners that are investing gineering for the fuselage, Triumph tion was run independently. Some of the same suppliers are now on the Defiant, but many are different, says Shidler. “When you want to build a one-off versus 2,200 aircraft, that’s

SIKORSKY/BOEING attractive to a different type of com- pany,” says Donnelly, noting prototyp- ing specialist Swift “is good at building one-offs.” Suppliers have signed up just for the JMR demo, as the future of FVL remains uncertain.

The Army, meanwhile, says it ex- pects to complete its business case analysis for the follow-on Future Vertical-Lift (FVL) Medium program of record by the end of this year, with in the program with in-kind labor or Group for landing gear, Martin-Baker a “materiel development decision” by providing parts, says Doug Shidler, for crew seats, East/West Industries for planned for the end of fiscal 2016. This Sikorsky’s JMR program director. cabin seats and PPG for transparencies. would launch the analysis of alterna- The program to demonstrate tech- Swift will build the composite fuselage tives that would lead to a Milestone nology for the Army’s next generation and deliver it to Sikorsky’s West Palm A decision in 2019 that would launch of rotorcraft involves significant cost- Beach, Florida, development flight-test the program and begin technology sharing by industry. A recent Sikorsky center for final assembly, says Shidler. maturation. The Army expects to investor presentation values JMR at Boeing will produce the rotor blades award contracts in 2021; under current $500 million, but in August 2014, when and perform final assembly of the main- plans, the first aviation brigade will be it signed agreements with both Bell and rotor gearbox, says Donnelly. equipped with FVL in 2037. Sikorsky/Boeing to build flight demon- The gearbox leverages both compa- Industry and the Army are con- strators, the Army said funding for the nies’ experience building and testing cerned that further budget cuts could air-vehicle phase of JMR is $217 million. different transmission designs. “In force a delay between completion of Critical design review for the Defi- the end we have a product neither of the JMR technology demonstration ant demonstrator is scheduled for late us could have come up with indepen- in 2019 and the start of FVL Medium this year, with the system integration dently,” says Shidler. “We believe we design. “We are concerned that a long lab (SIL) to be operational early next have the lowest-weight, most-efficient gap before establishing platform re- year, says Shidler. “Mid next year we solution,” adds Donnelly. quirements [for FVL] could have an will start final assembly,” he says. First Several companies are providing impact on retaining talented staff,” flight is planned by the end of fiscal 2017. components of the vehicle manage- says Shidler, adding the near-term “We will start with the SIL to en- ment system, but the principal supplier issue is maintaining industry’s tech- sure all the electronics are working —Sikorsky’s United Technologies sister nical capability to design an efficient together. Then the propulsion system company UTC Aerospace Systems—is rotorcraft. c

54 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/APRIL 27-MAY 10, 2015 AviationWeek.com/awst by CMCs. So that’s why you have to look at the exact system architecture and the exact part.” Pratt is also looking at monolithic ceramics for air seals, as well as classes of advanced alloys of niobium, cobalt and molyb- denum. “These are alloys that can give you very-high-temper- ature capability in the parts that don’t rotate and, combined with high thermal conductivity, you get huge improvements in performance,” says Preli. GE, which introduced turbine shrouds made from first-gen- eration CMCs into ground-based power engines in the 2000s, is pushing for its wider use for jet engines, initially in static parts. CMCs will make their commercial engine debut in 2016 when the GE-Snecma CFM Pratt says the low-stage Leap-1 enters service with count of engines like the turbine shrouds made from PW1524G, seen here on the material. Its commercial test, makes CMCs less cost- use will greatly expand from effective for static parts. 2020, when GE’s GE9X for the Boeing 777X will enter service with CMCs used in the combustor liner, first-stage high-pressure (HP) turbine nozzle and shroud, and the second- stage nozzle. Earlier this year, a modified GEnx-1B 787 engine began tests of the first full GE9X suite of CMC components. CMCs are generally divided into non-oxide or oxide-based Hot Blades materials. The non-oxide material systems used or studied for high-temperature propulsion applications include carbon Engine architectures and advanced fibers in a carbon matrix (C/C), carbon fibers with a silicon carbide matrix (C/SiC), as well as silicon-carbide fibers in a alloys push Pratt’s CMC focus silicon-carbide matrix (SiC/SiC). Oxide-based materials are made up of an oxide fiber and oxide matrix (Ox-Ox). from static to spinning parts GE has also introduced Ox-Ox CMC structures into the

PRATT & WHITNEY Passport business jet engine, where it is used for the exhaust, Guy Norris East Hartford, Connecticut centerbody and core cowls. Late in 2014, the engine maker also validated the temperature capabilities and durability of CMC- ratt & Whitney is focusing on development of very-high- made low-pressure (LP) turbine blades in an F414 turbofan. temperature ceramic matrix composites (CMC) in rotat- The tests of the material, used in the second LP turbine stage, Ping structures for its future commercial and military represented the first successful application of CMCs in a rotat- engines. The company says it is “not convinced” of the utility ing stage. GE has spent over $1 billion in developing SiC ce- of the lightweight material for static parts. ramic fiber and ceramic resin material for engine applications. The approach, which Pratt says is partially driven by the Rolls-Royce also wants to introduce CMCs into its commer- low stage-count configuration of its newer engines, and partly cial and military engine lineups, and has outlined plans for an by a growing preference for thermally conductive advanced advanced shroudless HP turbine with a rub-in CMC liner for alloys, appears to be sharply at odds with that of CMC pioneer smaller members of its Advance family, as well as CMC nozzles and arch-rival General Electric. in its UltraFan concept. Together with Orbital ATK company Pratt & Whitney materials and systems chief engineer COI Ceramics, Rolls recently joined forces with Boeing on its Frank Preli says, “We are focusing on the 2,700-deg. class of 787 ecoDemonstrator program to test a ceramic nozzle on a CMCs mostly because we have very few stages in our engines. Trent 1000 as part of the FAA’s Cleen program. Results in- We don’t have big low-pressure turbines with 5-7 stages. We dicated the CMC material system exceeds the temperature only have three, so low-temperature CMCs don’t have as much capability of superalloys at a weight 20% lighter than titanium, of an advantage in our architectures.” Instead, Pratt is focusing reducing fuel consumption. Rolls also recently acquired Cal- on using higher-temperature CMCs in the rotating blades of ifornia-based CMC specialist Hyper-Therm, a manufacturer future high-pressure turbines. “That’s where we see we will get that also worked with NASA on development of the first ac- the biggest benefit. That’s the real payoff for CMCs because of tively cooled, continuous fiber-reinforced SiC-matrix compos- their low densities,” he explains. ite thrust chamber for a liquid-fuel rocket propulsion system. In contrast, Pratt does not see the material being used for Pratt meanwhile remains confident that it is on the right static parts such as those in GE’s latest engines. “We are not track to develop the capability for the highly demanding convinced CMCs are the best material for static parts,” says HP turbine. “We have what we believe are clear pathways Preli. “There are a couple of issues with CMCs beyond the cost to doing matrix consolidation; matrices that are capable of of manufacturing and one is thermal conductivity. It is rela- 2,700 deg.,” says Preli. “We have a clear path toward coat- tively low, so in a static part where weight is not as important ing systems, though one of the things we are concerned as in a rotating part, you find there are materials with far su- about is the fiber. High-temp fibers sort of exist today and perior thermal conductivity, like some of the advanced alloys. there are some development fibers showing promise, but “In non-rotating parts, you can take advantage of that very- our focus has to be on getting fiber capabilities,” he adds. c high-thermal conductivity and get parts that are more effec- tive and which require less cooling air than would be required With Joseph C. Anselmo and Jen DiMascio in Washington

AviationWeek.com/awst AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/APRIL 27-MAY 10, 2015 55 TECHNOLOGY Adaptive Change CALSPAN AEROSPACE

Test pilot program proves viability of adaptive controller for civil airliner safety application Guy Norris Edwards AFB, California

n adaptive fl ight controller that fl ight conditions and vehicle confi gu- Tests of the controller in Calspan’s could help pilots save a criti- ration. However, the L1 works in real- variable-stability Learjet included Acally damaged or out-of-control time to predict transient behavior; it dealing with roll-coupled yaw while aircraft is being proposed for possible estimates lumped uncertainties rather simulating a lifting body and high commercial development following a than every individual parameter that adverse aileron yaw while replicat- rigorous evaluation by U.S. Air Force can aff ect system dynamics, and com- ing an F-100 Super Saber. Test Pilots School (TPS) students pensates for them within the band- here, using Calspan’s variable-stability width of a control channel. the estimation loop from the control Learjet 25 test aircraft. The L1 controller comprises three loop. This architectural change, which The L1 controller is designed to au- blocks: a state predictor, a fast-esti- is achieved via the bandwidth limited tomatically intervene in the case of filter in the control struc- control problems, immediately recon- ture, avoids the high-gain figuring the flight-control system to “[With NASA’s help], we are response of earlier adaptive compensate for degraded fl ying quali- systems, making it safer, ro- ties, from mechanical failure or battle focused on revolutionizing bust and easier to certifi cate, damage to a control surface, or even say developers. the unintended result of shifting cen- the fl ight-control systems “We can quantify ahead ter-of-gravity infl ight for better cruise of time the transient steady- performance. Acting as a backup to the of commercial aviation” state performance specifi ca- standard fl ight-control system, the L1 tion and robustness margin is designed to provide safe, predict- in an aircraft and set guide- able, reliable and repeatable responses mation mechanism and a control law. lines for the trade-off between perfor- that would free pilots to deal with the The fast-estimation element includes mance and robustness and the adap- emergency and further compensate for a state predictor and a fast-estimation tion piece,” says TPS Flying Qualities reduced performance. law that together approximate the Master Instructor Chris Cotting. “If I In development for more than a de- dynamics of the aircraft to generate have a stability augmentation system, cade by researchers at the University estimates of the uncertainties. These I can make it incredibly stable but not of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, the range calculations are provided as in- very maneuverable, or very maneuver- L1 controller architecture diff ers from put to a bandwidth-limited fi lter that able but not very stable. L1 [allows you] most previous approaches to adaptive generates a control signal to the fl ight to make those kinds of trades with this control systems. Until now, the stan- control system. adaptive controller.” dard has been gain-scheduled control Unlike other adaptive controllers L1 development from theory to fl ight systems in which the flight-control that use the estimated values of un- test has been led by Naira Hovakimyan, computer selects the appropriate certain parameters directly as con- a professor of mechanical science and preprogrammed gains to suit current trol gains, the L1 system decouples engineering at Illinois, who worked on

56 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/APRIL 27-MAY 10, 2015 AviationWeek.com/awst the concept under Air Force funding Dynamically Scaled Generic Transport 15,000 ft., and powered approach with between 2004-08 at Virginia Tech with Model research aircraft. In 2011, L1 was gear down and flaps at 20 deg. If the postdoctoral fellow Chengyu Cao (now tested on the Simona motion-based re- Learjet encountered dangerous flight at the University of Connecticut). The search simulator at the Delft Univer- conditions, a series of safety trips dis- TPS evaluation was the first time the sity of Technology in the Netherlands. engaged the VSS, returning control to controller had been flown on a manned Versions of the L1 controller are used the safety pilot in the left seat. aircraft and was a vital step toward im- in marine autopilots and industrial ma- “The VSS puts in the good or bad plementing L1 as a flight safety system, chines, and are being studied for UAVs dynamics we want, and the L1 was says Hovakimyan. “This is just a pure and missiles. designed to restore the reference set,” flight-control system like an autopilot, Flight tests were conducted at Ed- says Cotting. “If we make the VSS but you can augment it with features wards AFB under one of the school’s better than the L1, it will degrade it such as envelope protection, different Test Management Projects, which to the reference model, or if we make pilot interfaces and so on.” She adds, provide students and staff with the it worse, the L1 will make it better,” NASA is funding that endeavor, “and opportunity for short-duration, real- he adds. Students assessed flying now we are focused on revolutionizing world flight tests. Industry, academia and handling qualities over 14 hr. of the fight-control systems of commercial or other military customers contribute test time at the two test conditions, aviation.” the research concept and any required as well as measured the robustness Although studies into adaptive flight funding, and the school provides test of the adaptive controller. Data also control systems in the U.S. go back to aircraft, a team of test pilots and were collected for offset approaches the X-15 program in the late 1950s, engineers as well as resources rang- and straight-in landings. the L1 originated with lessons learned ing from the Edwards airspace to Specific failures—applied either in- from the Boeing/Air Force Research flight-test data and analysis (AW&ST dividually or in combination—included Laboratory X-36 Restore program, Dec. 1/8, 2014, p. 57). reduced pitch damping, aft-center-of- says Hovakimyan. Under this effort, Testing was conducted throughout gravity for neutral static-longitudinal which ran from 1996 to 1999, research- two weeks in February and March on stability, reduced yaw damping, high ers attempted to stabilize an unstable, a Calspan Learjet 25D modified with a adverse and proverse aileron yaw, re- tailless unmanned air vehicle (UAV) variable stability simulator (VSS). This duced roll damping and a coupled roll- with several simulated control-system feature changes the apparent stability spiral mode. During simulations of a failures. of the aircraft, allowing it to be used as lifting body, the L1 overcame lateral “Predictability is the key word,” an inflight simulator of other aircraft direction and oscillation control issues, Hovakimyan says. “In the Restore types. The L1 was overlaid on top of the and while representing an F-100 Saber program, when they tested it with VSS, which simulated various aircraft at high angles of attack, the system en- adaptive controllers they didn’t know in up-and-away flight at 250 kt. and abled normal roll control. c how to tune it. It was stable but not predictable and they got different transients every time. Adaptation can help; however, the architecture it- self had deficiencies. It was good for slow adaptation but was not correctly structured to maintain robustness in the presence of fast adapta- tion.” Subsequent studies focused on development of a fast-adapting controller that could also maintain robust- ness. “That’s what we nailed down architecturally,” she adds. The L1 was flown for the first time in 2006 in the Rascal UAV at the Naval Postgradu- ate School and again starting in 2009 when NASA evaluated the controller on the AirSTAR The L1 was evaluated by the pilot in the right seat using a joystick. The left seat, with the conventional Learjet controls, is for the safety pilot. GUY NORRIS/AW&ST

AviationWeek.com/awst AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/APRIL 27-MAY 10, 2015 57 ROTORCRAFT Good Vibrations New technologies open the way for HUMS on light helicopters

Tony Osborne Orlando, Florida

he use of health and usage moni- tion HUMS—with a weight penalty toring systems (HUMS) on heli- of about 20 lb.—are considered too Tcopters has transformed not only heavy for light helicopters. The sys- rotary-wing safety but also mainte- tems’ point-to-point distribution of nance and operations. analog sensors, wiring harnesses and Mandatory for off shore operations processors contributes to the weight. since the early 1990s, HUMS have pro- Then there is price. Vibration- liferated, becoming standard equip- monitoring systems for a light twin- ment on all heavy- and super-medium engine helicopter can cost $100,000 helicopters. However, adapting the and might not be linked to fl ight data. system for lightweight rotorcraft has Even when it is linked to the data, it is March 5. Butterworth is manager of proved more of a challenge, until now. useful for maintenance departments avionics technical support at Airbus Engineers at Airbus Helicopters in but not much more, since many own- Helicopters in Grand Prairie, Texas. the U.S. will soon begin bench-testing ers cannot actually make use of the “HUMS is so much more than just a new method of collecting HUMS data large amounts of data. While oil and health and usage; it is position and that is less than half the weight and gas operations have maintenance de- flight data, vibration and usage. I 1/100th the price of current third-par- partments devoted to exploiting this wanted to put all that information to- ty systems. If the tests pan out, HUMS data, in an industry where 85% of op- gether and understand how the ma- could become a standard feature before erators have fi ve aircraft or less, that chine is being utilized.” the end of decade on every new-build capability would not be compelling. Widespread adoption would make Airbus light and medium helicopter and Nonetheless, Airbus says it is con- it easier to extend the time between be retrofi tted to many more. fident it has solutions to all these component overhauls or warranty The problems of installing HUMS questions. “Enormous things can be arrangements, Butterworth says. It on light helicopters are threefold. done with this information,” Airbus could also predict maintenance issues First, payload is at a premium on Helicopters’ Brent Butterworth told long before the operators realize there any helicopter, and current-genera- Aviation Week at HAI Heli-Expo on is a problem.

Vibration occurs in helicopters because the loads on the Smooth Turning main rotor blades constantly shift as they rotate and their direction of travel changes from moving forward at nearly supersonic speed to traveling aft at near stall. To help absorb these vibrations, particularly in-plane, Sikorsky has for de- cades been adding simple swinging masses known as bifi lars close to the rotor hub. Al- Flight tests of the HMVS though relatively eff ective, have been conducted on a these mechanical devices U.S. Army UH-60L based at cannot, however, absorb Fort Eustis, Virginia. all the vibration, which results in a degraded ride Hub-mounted active suppression quality and contributes to pilot fatigue and maintenance costs. system tests aimed at ‘zero- To combat these issues Sikorsky, together with noise and vibration control specialist Lord, has developed a hub- vibration’ helicopter mounted vibration suppressor (HMVS). The system moni- Guy Norris Orlando, Florida tors and analyzes the vibration at the hub and, through a series of actuators, generates a countervibration to cancel liminating rotor-blade vibration in helicopters has been out the eff ect. “This is the fi rst active rotor technology that I a long-running target for rotorcraft manufacturers. Now think will hit the market,” says Chris Van Buiten, vice presi- SIKORSKY ESikorsky, teamed with Lord Corp. and the U.S. Army, is dent of technology and innovation at Sikorsky. poised for fi nal fl ight tests of an active vibration control system The system was initially tested in the horizontal plane it believes will achieve the goal of a zero-vibration helo with in 2014 on a UH-60L operated by the U.S. Army Aviation “jet-smooth” operation throughout the entire fl ight envelope. Applied Technology Directorate (AATD) at Fort Eustis,

58 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/APRIL 27-MAY 10, 2015 AviationWeek.com/awst The EC130/H130 would be an early “We need to make sure we can hear beneficiary of a lightweight HUMS all the gear mesh frequencies, the system. bearing tones, shaft orders, all the things you need to do to have a com- bus, eliminating the need for heavy pliant HUMS system,” he explains. harnesses and additional black boxes With the new technology, Airbus to crunch and process the data. believes it can create a 10-lb. HUMS “I had to find something small, but for an EC145-size helicopter at about not something less capable or with 1% of the rotorcraft price. less functionality,” Butterworth says. Butterworth also has mapped out “By using a digital-distributed archi- three service plans, with Airbus down- tecture, we found it can do some very loading the data and then accommo- interesting things with data prepro- dating customers with what they need. cessing.” Basic service would deliver rotor track Work toward testing the technology and balance information; the second is underway. The team has already col- would add helicopter flight-data moni- lected benchmark data from the main toring to satisfy new emergency medi- gearbox of an EC145 light twin and the cal service regulations; the third and AIRBUS HELICOPTERS tail-rotor gearbox of an AS350/H125 highest level would allow operators to In a normal HUMS, vibration data Ecureuil/A-Star helicopter using a examine all health information, with are collected by accelerometers placed current-generation HUMS. a “go, no-go” service for components at key points on the various dynamic On April 27, the team was due to be- provided via a traffic light system. components. These send analog data gin testing the digital HUMS to see if HUMS data could be downloaded along heavy wiring harnesses to a the new data collected correlate with automatically using wireless Internet processor that digitizes the signals so that from the old one. connections or tablet computers that data can be collected. “There is great confidence it will would also feature flight manuals and Airbus’s new solution has emerged work,” says Butterworth. “It already navigation charts. from the wind turbine industry. works in the wind turbine at low fre- If the flight trials go as planned, Air- Working in collaboration with quencies, and there is greater ampli- bus could file supplemental type cer- Britain’s Ultra Electronics and its tude in helicopter components. We tificates for HUMS fitment with the New-York-based affiliate Flightline just need to prove the technology can FAA before the end of year, and the Systems, Butterworth and his team survive in a helicopter environment.” equipment could be fitted across the are using a new generation of accel- If successful, the engineers will light-helicopter product range, from erometers that digitize the data they flight-test the system on the EC145 in the EC120/H120 to the EC145/H145 collect at the source and relay it to a June. before the end of the decade. c SIKORSKY Virginia, and it will be tested with ad- HMVS in operation, it was the only ditional “perpendicular” control fea- vibration treatment operating. On the tures in 2015. final flight, the aircraft achieved max At the recent HAI Heli-Expo 2015 horizontal speed.” show in Orlando, Florida, Van Buiten Van Buiten says Sikorsky and Lord outlined the progress on testing of the are now adding more “functionality HMVS. The ultimate intent, he says, this year to attack vibration in an ad- is to replace the mechanical bifilar ditional axis.” This will probably be on the S-76, Black Hawk and S-92 demonstrated on a Black Hawk jet- families with “a computer-controlled, smooth flight in the full helicopter active vibration control device that Mounted on top of the rotor hub, the envelope, he notes. understands the vibration going into HMVS system incorporates box-like The additional testing being under- the helicopter from the rotor system structures for external power and data in- taken as part of a program called the and cancels [it] out in the rotor hub.” terface. Black cabling, seen on this unit, Combat Tempered Platform Demon- “The aircraft was flown both with is for test instrumentation and would not stration will “take results from the and without a bifilar absorber to col- be a feature on a production system. hub-mounted system and combine lect baseline vibration levels,” says them with the cabin system,” adds Douglas Leroy, Lord’s business development manager, of Kristopher Burson, global director of business development, the 2014 test series. “The tuned cabin absorbers [already marketing and strategy at Lord. “By putting vibration sup- widely used to null in-cabin vibration] were locked out, and pressors on the hub, you also get benefits in the cabin be- HMVS became the only vibration treatment. The six months cause you can reduce the passive treatments such as heavy of flight testing included complete ground, hover and enve- weights. These [suppressors] are placed under the floor and lope-expansion test procedures.” Leroy adds that, until the usually tuned to a narrow band of frequencies. By varying test program, UH-60s had never flown without a bifilar. “So the hub and cabin in tandem, you will be able to take out lots the data needed to be carefully collected,” he notes. “With the of weight—we are talking hundreds of kilos.” c

AviationWeek.com/awst AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/APRIL 27-MAY 10, 2015 59 UNMANNED SYSTEMS

ing which plants need applications,” Pelican Brief says Cary. “Right now sprayers [by helicopter or aircraft] cover the whole Tandem-rotor Pelican UAS could see agricultural fi eld, yet sugar growers, for example, might only need to kill weeds on 10% and military-supply applications of the area. So 90% of the material be- ing put down is wasted. We want to get Guy Norris Orlando, Florida it to the point on an application-cost-

DPI basis per hour that is competitive s the proliferation of unmanned to anything that exists now and, air systems into new roles con- because it won’t waste all that Atinues, rotary-wing UAS spe- material, it will end up being less cialist Dragonfl y Pictures Inc. (DPI) is expensive,” he adds. developing a large, tandem-rotor ve- DPI also hopes to attract hicle aimed at autonomous heavy-lift military interest in the Pelican, applications ranging from agricultural particularly since a smaller de- aerial spraying to air supply for mili- rivative, the DP-12 Rhino, is be- tary forward operating bases. ing evaluated by the U.S. Army. Resembling the configuration of Also confi gured with a tandem the CH-47 built at Boeing’s nearby rotor, the 6.7-ft.-long Rhino is de- Philadelphia facility, the tandem-rotor signed to carry payloads of 32 lb. DP-14 Pelican prototype is expected for 4.5 hr. or 150 lb. for 1 hr., and to make its fi rst fl ight early in 2016. can be programmed to follow Considered large by the standards The U.S. Army is evaluating preloaded GPS coordinates to a land- of conventional rotary-wing UAS, DPI’s DP-12 Rhino unmanned ing site. the Pelican will be 13.5 ft. long and aircraft system. A version of the DP-14 will also be is designed to carry up to 450 lb. of used under a joint project with NASA payload within its 26 cu. ft. of cargo shown with external tanks and a spray to study airworthiness requirements to space or on external hard points. The bar rig for agricultural applications support FAA certifi cation for UAS that vehicle is powered by either an 87-hp developed by Oregon-based Isolair weigh 55 lb. or more, specifi cally for use Solar T62 engine or 133-hp Micro- Helicopter Systems. For this role, the in precision agriculture. DPI, which be- turbo eAPU turbine and is designed system will likely be off ered with nose- gan the work with NASA in May 2014, to operate on JP-5 or JP-8 heavy fuel, mounted sensor systems such as lidar says the agricultural variant is expect- generating 4.2 kw of power for avion- (light detection and ranging) and visual ed to be the fi rst UAV over 300 lb. to ics and sensor payloads. cameras. “On precision guidance, one of operate with FAA certifi cation. c “We think tandem designs hold a the visions is to put advanced sensors lot of advantages over single rotors, on the front that are capable of detect- which are like most of the UAVs you see today,” says Bud Cary, DPI chief operating and fi- nancial officer. “Single-rotor UAVs do not necessarily work as well in certain applications, especially when you have to fl y somewhere remote where you don’t really know what the terrain is like. The tail rotor is what gets dam- aged by debris, plants and bushes. Tandem rotors are higher and have a wider center of gravity, offering greater loading fl exibility.” The proof-of-concept display version, unveiled at the HAI He- li-Expo here in early March, was The concept DP-14, exhibited at the recent HAI Heli-Expo show, GUY NORRIS/AW&ST features external containers and a spray rig for precision agricultural aerial spraying.

60 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/APRIL 27-MAY 10, 2015 AviationWeek.com/awst MRO

The airframe manufacturers are involved as well and believe they are in the most strategical- ly beneficial positions to help their airline cus- tomers. Boeing has about 1,700 aircraft under some sort of material Airbus expects up management agree- to 75% of the A350 ment, including deals fleet to be covered by that involve partners spare-parts pooling like AFI KLM, says agreements. Joe Dunne, director of material manage- ment services for Boeing Commercial Aviation Services. He believes airframe manufacturers AIRBUS have a trump card that other pooling services providers cannot beat: depth of inventory. “If I don’t have it in my pool, I probably have Pooling Power it in my production supply chain or in my spare parts supply chain,” he told delegates at Avia- Airbus eyes spares pools as significant tion Week’s MRO Americas Conference in Miami Beach April 15. A350 aftermarket opportunity Factor in the lower costs that make attrac- tive so-called open pooling—in which all parts Sean Broderick Toulouse and Miami Beach are shared among those who pay in—and the manufacturers are building a strong case. Re- irbus, eyeing a major share of the A350 aftermarket- ville says that fewer airlines are investing in so-called initial support business, is finalizing its first maintenance, provisioning (IP) spares packages for new fleets, which can Arepair, and overhaul (MRO) agreement with an A350 run from $10-20 million for an airframe with access to used- customer and is in talks with several more, a company ex- parts inventories, such as the Boeing 777 or Airbus A330, ecutive confirms. to twice that or more for the newest aircraft. The inaugural deal, a 12-year agreement, is at the airline’s “This is where the FHS offering on a per-flight-hour basis board-approval stage, says Pierre Yves Reville, Airbus vice is appealing,” Reville says, noting that access to a pool of president for services-solutions. A formal announcement is 600-800 A350 components would cost $15-20 per flight hour. expected by summer. Airbus calculates that an airline needs 80-90 A350s before “This is the first step into a very promising market,” Reville it can economically justify its own spares pool. A typical A350 says. “I think airlines understand that on a high-tech aircraft IP package for a fleet of 10-12 aircraft can run $30 million. with parts that have very high reliability and very high costs Airbus’s FHS Component and TSP offerings have been . . . investing by themselves in inventories or trying to manage slower to take off than Boeing’s comparable products. Reville maintenance by themselves doesn’t make sense.” says the size of the current pool of aircraft under Airbus’s The deal will be an Airbus Flight Hour Services (FHS) managed-care services is close to 200, with 11 announced agreement. Airbus offers two FHS packages: FHS Compo- customers, and includes A320s, A330s and A380s. nent, in which operators pay per flight hour for access to But the European manufacturer says interest in these spares pools, including critical line-replaceable units; and the services is picking up. Reville expects 70-75% of the A350 FHS Tailored Support Package (TSP), which adds options fleet will be covered by spares pools, either via Airbus FHS such as engineering services, airplane health monitoring and or competitive offerings. management of airframe work. Meanwhile, several FHS customers are looking to expand Airbus is talking with at least five other A350 customers coverage to other aircraft in their fleets. Singapore Airlines about FHS packages, including one in Latin America, one in (SIA) is in talks on a TSP setup for its A380s. The carrier Europe, and three in the Asia-Pacific region. has its A330s under an agreement that includes engineering As airlines look to minimize parts-stocking costs, particu- services handled by SIA Engineering, and had its recently larly with the newest-generation aircraft, spares pools have phased out A340s under a similar deal. never been more popular. Increased technological sophistica- Thai Airways, which has A380s and A320s under an FHS tion and improved reliability mean that complex components deal, is considering adding both A330s and A350s. for models such as the A350 and Boeing 787 are needed less Airbus is also talking to several would-be new aftermar- often than similar parts on earlier-generation aircraft. This ket-support customers. It is in deep discussions with a Latin makes them more expensive to stock—and more challeng- American A350 customer on a support package and is in ing to stock in the right locations within a single airline’s “advanced discussions” with at least two carriers in China network. that could lead to deals “in the coming year,” Reville says. As a result, operators are turning to aftermarket services A380 FHS deals have proven particularly popular in and logistics experts—ranging from traditional aftermarket part because of the costs of the aircraft’s spares, but also providers such as Air France Industries-KLM Engineering because operators fly so few of them, rendering individual & Maintenance (AFI KLM) and Lufthansa Technik—to com- spares pools uneconomical. As of March 31, 156 A380s were ponent manufacturers themselves, to provide on-demand in service with 13 operators, but only Emirates and SIA had pools for certain parts. at least 20. c

AviationWeek.com/awst AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/APRIL 27-MAY 10, 2015 61 MRO

lines, says Dave Marcontell, a vice presi- Analyze This dent with Oliver Wyman-owned Cavok, while significant disruptions will occur New aircraft, data analytics will change elsewhere. “We believe these advances could cut or redistribute 15-20% of the how aircraft maintenance is conducted total MRO spend,” he says. Cavok puts the 2015 global airline MRO market at Sean Broderick Miami Beach $67 billion, rising to $100 billion by 2025. Manufacturers offering AHM and echnology’s progress, combined The ability to query specific datasets similar services will surely benefit, with the massive turnover the combined with the massive amount of while carriers should see reduced Tglobal airline fleet is slated to un- data available on the latest aircraft maintenance costs. But Marcontell dergo by 2025 will reshape the mainte- make airplane health monitoring says independent MROs can use data nance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) busi- (AHM) a powerful diagnostic tool. The they collect to cash in as well. “MROs ness. The main development behind the A380 has 250,000 parameters avail- out there that don’t even own an air- shift: a more data-driven business that able, while the A350 has more than plane can start leveraging the comput- powers predictive maintenance to help 400,000, Airbus says. The 1980s-era ing power and algorithms being devel- minimize unplanned work on next-gen- A320, by contrast, has 20,000. oped to better mine the data they are eration aircraft. Over the next decade, Oliver Wyman already collecting and own,” he says. Increasingly sophisticated aircraft projects that 43% of the 18,500 new Engine manufacturers, which have are setting the stage. The newest, like passenger and freighter deliveries will grabbed increasingly larger shares the Airbus A350, generate several hun- replace existing aircraft, leaving a fleet of the aftermarket with guaranteed- dred thousand parameters that, with of about 34,400. This will help shift the service agreements, are paving the the right software, can be collected, fleet profile of 2025 to one in which 45% way, using AHM to know precisely when engines need work. It is in their best interest to do so, as their service agreements—often structured as flat- fee, power-by-the-hour deals in which all maintenance is covered—shift risk from their customers to themselves. SEAN BRODERICK/AW&ST The airframe side is more compli- cated. While Airbus and Boeing covet the levels of own-product aftermarket shares that the engine makers have, it will not happen anytime soon. Opera- tors are turning toward service-level agreements for airframe components, but they are being shared among after- market players, including traditional MRO providers, suppliers with sup- port programs, and aggregators that put together spares pools and manage Better analytics and more data to crunch should help reduce the amount repairs. These providers are often more of time next-generation aircraft spend in MRO shops. nimble than the airframers, offering more flexible options—such as used analyzed, and used to spot a problem of the aircraft will have been delivered parts—that keep operators’ costs down. before it leads to a service disruption. after 2000, compared to just 10% today. Just how this environment will Airbus is already scratching the sur- As more next-generation aircraft en- square with one in which airframers face with its real-time health monitor- ter the fleet and displace older models have all of the data remains to be seen. ing service, available for the A380 and with less digital capability, airlines and Marcontell believes a showdown is pos- A350 and being tested on the A330. Far manufacturers will have more opportu- sible, with airlines and manufacturers more than pushing status information nity to use data as a primary driver of facing off over which side owns the data. to the ground in real-time, Airbus uses maintenance programs. MRO provid- “It has been the OEMs that have onboard communications functionality ers are eyeing the opportunities, too. been the early movers on data,” Mar- to query sophisticated computers like An Oliver Wyman survey released contell says. “We believe this creates Centralized Maintenance Systems and April 13 at Aviation Week’s MRO Ameri- a potential conflict, as airlines are Aircraft Condition Monitoring Systems cas conference found that MRO execu- trusting their parts-removal history to obtain specific parameters related to tives foresee AHM and predictive main- and analysis to the very same orga- a fault. The data help the manufactur- tenance (PM) as the aftermarket’s most nizations that are trying to sell them er’s around-the-clock technical support promising new technologies in 2020, replacement parts and services.” team get to the root of an issue and, ahead of additive manufacturing and One possible solution, he says: a working with the carrier’s maintenance composite repair developments. trusted third-party “intermediary” to control center, determine what to do. Most of the benefits will accrue to air- serve as “a fair arbiter of data.” c

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reduced or the engine shut down if Trial by Fire engine parameters could not be main- tained within limits. During the inci- Deficiencies in simulator training underscored dent flight, however, the EGT values had reached limit values, represented in high-stress real-time events by amber “Xs” on the display. The N2 warning procedures were of no help John Croft Washington because the engine did not reach lev- els that would have required the crew rapid chain of events in the aircraft monitor (ECAM) made it clear to shut it down. Spirit has a procedure cockpit of a Spirit Airlines Air- that the left engine was the cause of for evaluating “high engine vibrations,” A bus A319 that was contending the rumbling. The autopilot and au- but the response is to monitor the pa- with thunderstorms while climbing tothrottle systems disengaged as the rameters more closely rather than out of Dallas-Fort Worth International crew began performing an emergency shutting down the engine. Airport in October 2013 spotlights gray procedure to address the initial ECAM Along with increasing the vibra- areas in training and documentation message—an engine pressure ratio tion levels, the captain’s decision to when failures occur in a high-stress (EPR) mode fault. The pilots declared increase power on the left engine ul- situation playing out in a highly auto- an emergency and began a turn-back timately raised temperatures to the mated cockpit. to Dallas. point where the engine shed “multiple The NTSB final report on the inci- components” includ- dent reveals how the crew struggled One missing bolt ing the low-pressure to interpret multiple, recurring fault with shiny witness mark turbine third- and Approximate B messages after the left engine began section fourth-stage disks, to fail and the cockpit and cabin filled location says the NTSB. Bolt circles from fourth-stage Some of the engine disk flange and air seal A portion of the third-stage high- remained attached components were pressure turbine from a Spirit later recovered on Airlines A319 engine was found on the ground in Ben Franklin, Texas. the lawn of a home in Texas. A’ A A’ and A B B’ are The crew did re- with smoke. The safety agency later spond correctly ap- B’ mating fractures determined that one second-stage proximately 4 min. high-pressure turbine blade in the In- after the captain ternational Aero Engines (IAE) V2500 boosted the power Photo 37—Recovered HPT Third-Stage Disk Rim turbofan engine had separated due to when the left en- stress corrosion cracking, causing ex- gine’s fire-warning tensive damage to the high-pressure Although he did not recall the action activated and the cockpit filled with and lower-pressure turbine sections later, the captain then advanced both smoke, fumes and a burning odor, lim- as it exited. In all, dozens of recovered throttles from climb power to the take- iting visibility of the instruments. The second-stage high-pressure turbine off/go-around setting, a move not ref- pilots donned oxygen masks, making it blades were found to have stress cor- erenced in any of the applicable Spirit more difficult to communicate during rosion cracking in the internal cavities abnormal and emergency procedures. a series of checklists that followed— used for cooling. IAE has since beefed The first officer was having difficulty including fire-suppression activation up its inspection procedures and de- determining which checklist to com- and engine shutdown procedures— veloped new aluminide coatings to pre- plete as the top-priority fault on the and avionics, lavatory and cargo-com- vent sulfur or other corrosive deposits ECAM as it rapidly alternated between partment ECAM smoke notifications. from causing such problems. While the two key warnings—EGT over-limit and At one point during the engine shut- corrosion from pollution has not tra- high-pressure turbine (N2) over-speed down procedures, with warning bells ditionally been considered a problem alerts, an issue Airbus later attributed sounding almost continually, the cap- for aircraft that fly in the continental to the engine’s full authority digital en- tain asked the first officer if they had U.S., IAE says that “sulfur-related ac- gine controller attempting to maintain lost both engines. The latter confirmed cumulation has been an increasingly engine speed. “Both crewmembers that only the left engine had failed. common event for all engines due to stated that Spirit pilots are trained to The aircraft eventually made a safe pollutants in the air.” troubleshoot multiple ECAM messag- return to Dallas with no injuries to the Flight 165, with 150 passengers and es, but not for situations where ECAM passengers or crew. crew, was navigating between two messages repeatedly switch priority,” The NTSB did not issue any recom- lines of thunderstorms as it climbed says the NTSB of pilot interviews at mendations to the airline regarding through 19,500 ft. when “a noticeable Spirit. “The rated A320 pilots in the the actions after the failure but noted vibration was felt in the cockpit and room all agreed with the assessment.” that IAE had changed its inspection throughout the cabin that progressive- The EGT over-limit procedures gave procedures and developed a new anti- ly intensified,” according to crew inter- the crew the leeway to continue oper- corrosion coating for the high-pressure views. Soon a series of fault messages ating the engine until the next landing, turbine blades that had cracked in this on the aircraft’s electronic centralized with the caveat that thrust should be incident and one other. c

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well below 6%, and it has not recovered. Many corporations In a Squeeze have curtailed funding business-class travel for executives . Airbus believes the premium, economy segment will grow Airbus looks to more seats to aid more popular. Already 26 airlines are off ering premium econ- omy—equivalent to about 30% of long-haul available seat revenue-conscious carriers miles (ASM). Five of 11 A380 operators have introduced the class between economy and business. Wuggetzer believes Jens Flottau Hamburg that airlines can increase revenues by $20 million per aircraft per year by adding 60 premium-economy seats. hen Airbus launched the A380 15 years ago, the But as the 11-abreast drive on the A380 indicates, Airbus focus was on infl ight lounges, shopping and spas. also sees growth in what it calls the “budget economy” seg- WBut this has shifted to a more proletarian view as ment. Confi gurations will be off ered that maximize the num- the manufacturer pushes for denser cabin layouts across its ber of seats per row across its long-haul products in the “bud- aircraft portfolio. get” category—nine on the A330, 10 on the A350 and 11 on the Airbus presented the mock-up of an 11-abreast economy A380. The standard economy cabin would feature one seat confi guration in the A380 main deck at the Aircraft Interiors less per row and, in premium economy, a second seat would Expo in Hamburg April 14-16 . A380 operators will have the be taken out. “Seat width has been underestimated. For years choice of operating the aircraft in the 10 -abreast standard we’ve only talked about seat pitch,” Wuggetzer says. economy seating or of adding another seat per row. Two seat He believes that airlines may not opt for all of the sub-cab- manufacturers, Zodiac and Geven, are on tap. The seats are ins in economy on the A330 or A350 because they would be- to be installed on the existing rails and no extra fl oor work is come too small to be economical, but he envisions four-class needed, says Ingo Wuggetzer, vice president of cabin market- A380s with two or even three diff erent economy sections. ing for Airbus. The confi guration will be available in 2017 and is Randy Tinseth, Boeing Commercial Airplanes vice presi- independent of any decision to launch the reengined A380neo . dent of marketing, says Airbus is “apparently abandoning With one seat added per row, Airbus sees a need for some its heavily promoted push for an industry-standard 18-in. changes to the inboard bins, which will be moved slightly economy-seat width,” adding, “the last time I checked, Air- outboard to make access easier. bus cross-sections hadn’t changed.” He says Airbus has of- The number of seats depends on airlines opting for either a ten tried to gain market acceptance for a nine-abreast A330; new confi guration on the entire main deck or specifi c layouts; “Each time it has been soundly rejected by the airlines with typically about 45 rows of economy seats are on the main deck. scheduled service.” He argues that the proposed seats and Emirates Airline was initially behind the idea of an 11-abreast aisles are too narrow, and window passengers are penalized economy section as part of its drive to make its existing A380 because of the limited head and shoulder clearance. fleet more efficient. But the carrier became increasingly Airbus counters that 60% of Boeing’s installed fl eet falls concerned that such a move would dilute its image as a high- into the “budget economy” category anyway because seats quality economy-class operator, even though Airbus says the are allegedly so narrow. 11-abreast rows would still allow for 18-in.-wide seats. The A320 family has been the starting point for more ef- Other options to create more space on the A380 include fi cient cabins. The introduction of new aft galley and lavatory removing the sidewall storages on the upper deck. In her- layouts (known as “Spacefl ex”) has been a key part of adding ringbone arrangements in business class—where seats face another row of seats on that type. As part of the rearrange- outboard—another row of seats could be added after every ment, the rear galley is reduced to accommodate either 2.5 or sixth row, eff ectively converting storage space into seating . four trolleys, compared to the standard seven. Two lavatories For long-haul fl ying, Wuggetzer says, the legacy three-class are moved into the space freed up immediately in front of the layout (First, Business, Economy) no longer refl ects market rear pressure bulkhead . trends. He advocates for enhancing the economy product . “In Similar ideas are now proposed for the A330 and A350 the past, most innovation went into premium products, but widebodies. A combination of ideas will enable Airbus to free that is only for 6% of travelers,” Wuggetzer says. And the trend up space for around 10 more seats on the A330 and 20 extra is clearly pointing toward economy: The premium share has seats on the A350-1000, which is slated to enter service in dropped from almost 7% before the 2008 fi nancial crisis to 2017. The layout would also be available on the A350-900. c Airbus is proposing an 11-abreast economy layout on the main deck of the A380. AIRBUS 64 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/APRIL 27-MAY 10, 2015 AviationWeek.com/awst elimination of inefficiencies, he admits. Teaming Up But he adds: “I note that this [iTEC CWP] development draws partners Four European ATC organizations plan to from three functional airspace blocks [FABs] and establishes an industrial introduce common controller certification partnership in line with the founda- tions of SES2+.” Cathy Buyck Madrid The SES2+ legislative proposal, which was drafted by the European low progress in making the mon tool for our air traffic controllers Commission in December 2013, brings Single European Sky (SES) and a common certification. In a sense, together the existing two SES regula- Sa reality and flying in Europe we are trying to follow the example of tory packages. But member states more efficient has been the subject of the airlines; a pilot of a Boeing 737 have not yet officially endorsed the much criticism by airlines in the re- can easily transfer from one airline proposed legislation. gion. Air navigation service providers to another one,” he says. Gonzalez An essential SES objective is the (ANSP) in Spain, Germany, the U.K. notes that developing a common stan- optimization of air navigation servic- and the Netherlands say the launch dard and system for the CWP will be es as well as optimum use of airspace of a joint project will take them one a “challenging venture” because the resources, “including in particular step further toward achieving what iTEC partners manage different op- technical resources,” Castelletti says. airlines want. erational scenarios according to their “In this regard, advanced technology The four air traffic control organiza- particular needs. developed jointly among several part-

tions signed an agreement for the joint DEUTSCHE FLUGSICHERUNG development of the next generation of the air traffic controller working posi- tion (CWP), which should lead to re- duced costs, increased efficiency and ultimately take the Single European Sky initiative forward. The common CWP is bing devel- Common software components used within the controllers’ work- ing desks across several European ANSPs should lead to increased efficiency and reduced costs. oped under the umbrella of iTEC (Interoperability Through European Collaboration); it essentially extends the lifespan of the joint venture, which was established 10 years ago to develop a next-generation flight data process- ing system by Germany’s DFS, Spain’s The benefits of the collabora- ners is essential, and it should focus Enaire (formally called AENA) and the tion, however, are evident, Gonzalez on the right functionality to enable all U.K.’s NATS, alongside systems pro- stresses. “In the short term, we share expected SES benefits,” he says. “The vider Indra. and rationalize development cost and new-generation iTEC CWP certainly The Dutch ANSP, LVNL, has joined investment, which in a regulated en- appears to meet both these criteria.” the group since, and “some promising vironment is of great importance,” he The project involves four European talks are underway” with other Euro- says. “In the longer term, the interop- ANSPs now and should be extended pean ANSPs, DFS CEO Klaus-Dieter erable solution increases efficiency in across the FABs, Castelletti says. Scheurle said at the iTEC CWP signing terms of services but also in training The target for implementation ceremony at the World ATM Congress and maintenance.” of the iTEC CWP for the four part- in Madrid in March. The exact budget The new agreement for the develop- ners is around 2022-23, says DFS’s for the development of the iTEC AWP ment of a common CWP for four ANSPs Scheurle. The German ANSP has is not yet defined, but it is estimated it marks the “advent of a new component already engaged with staff about the will be on the order of €20 million ($21.6 that has the potential to take the Single project. “This exchangeability of air million). The cost will be equally divided European Sky forward in an essential traffic controllers between four coun- by the participants in the project. concrete manner,” asserts Maurizio tries is brand-new in Europe and The design phase of the iTEC CWP Castelletti, head of the SES unit of the requires a big change in mentality. should take about two years, accord- European Commission’s DG Move. Each ANSP has its own culture. But ing to Ignacio Gonzalez, director of air SES still requires major efforts to we have to show them, to convince navigation of Enaire and chair of the advance toward its ultimate goal of them, this is a good thing. We have iTEC group board. “We want a com- enhanced safety in parallel with the to team up.” c

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star Hong Kong joint venture, along with local investors. Proven Product Recent fi nancial results help vindicate Cathay’s strategy. The carrier boosted its net profi t to HK$3.15 billion ($406 Cathay Pacifi c relies on a tested million) in 2014, despite the fact that it received little help from lower fuel costs due to unfavorable hedges. model to defend its market position Passenger demand remains robust. The carrier set new records during the recent Chinese New Year travel period, Adrian Schofi eld Hong Kong with daily passenger numbers exceeding 110,000 on two days. It is also achieving a load factor of 84% this year, says Chu. t is somewhat surprising that Cathay Pacifi c CEO Ivan The scale of Cathay’s operation means maintaining its pre- Chu claims to not lose any sleep over the competitive chal- mium brand strength is particularly challenging, with the Ilenges facing his airline. After all, it operates in a region need to ensure consistency across more than 10,000 cabin where the established mainline giants are under increasing crew and about 8,600 ground staff . pressure from several quarters. But Chu is adamant Cathay’s “But the fact that it is hard gives us a strong competitive business model is strong enough to thrive despite the new advantage, because we know most people can’t do it,” says threats that are hammering many of its rivals. Chu. While it is relatively easy to write a check and acquire Among these factors are the rapid growth of Asian low- the hardware, it takes many years to establish a premium cost carriers (LCC), the emergence of long-haul LCCs, Middle brand reputation. Eastern airlines capturing connecting fl ows in key markets, Cathay’s well-established brand helps it meet the chal- the rising international ambitions of the mainland Chinese lenge of rapidly expanding mainland Chinese airlines, which carriers and the continuing expansion of competing Asian are in some cases trying to emulate Cathay’s success as a connecting hubs. long-haul connecting carrier. The Hong Kong-based carrier This daunting list contributes to the fi nancial struggles has an entrenched product that is popular with corporate affl icting many of the Asian legacy carriers. Some, like Malay- customers, and Chu believes that the other Chinese airlines sia Airlines, have required a government bailout, while others will fi nd it diffi cult to break into the mainstream of business such as Garuda Indonesia and Thai Airways have launched traffi c in the near future. restructuring eff orts. Even Singapore Airlines—which has The vast potential of the China market also reduces the weathered the fi nancial challenges better than most—is em- competitive threat. “The pie is growing so fast” that all play- barking on new strategic approaches. ers have the scope to increase traffi c, Chu says. Cathay, however, is sticking with the business model that The mainland Chinese carrier with the greatest interna- has served it successfully for decades. It relies on a full-ser- tional presence is Air China, which has close links to Ca- vice product, high frequency on trunk routes, international thay. They have signifi cant cross-shareholdings, cooperate connections via its Hong Kong hub, a growing home market on some routes, and jointly own Air China Cargo. The cargo and a large cargo operation (see related story). These facets joint venture gives Cathay important exposure to the Yangtze are supported by the airline’s fl eet strategy and extensive River Delta manufacturing region, says Chu. aircraft order book. Rapid growth in outbound international Chinese travel will be Chu says Cathay’s model is “very competitive” against one of the airline industry’s biggest opportunities over the next the LCCs in particular. Its strength is based on multiple strands that the LCCs cannot match, such as brand power, premium yields and the scale of its international network and cargo services. Such advantages allow Cathay to price aggressively in some of its economy offerings. For example, three years ago the carrier launched its “Fanfare” product, steeply dis- counted tickets that go on sale in Hong Kong every Tuesday. Cathay sells about 2,000 tickets a week through this channel, which is similar in size to a small LCC operation, notes Chu. “We do want to connect with the price-sensitive sector” as well as premium traffi c, he says. Chu cites the success of Cathay in the Hong Kong-Singa- pore market as a good example of its competitiveness versus other models. This route is served by many airlines, including LCCs, yet Cathay has managed to maintain its market share and yield. The airline’s approach is in marked contrast to many other Asian full-service carriers, which have been establish- ing their own LCC subsidiaries. Singapore Airlines has been actively growing its portfolio of LCCs and is directing much of the group’s growth to these carriers. While many overseas LCCs fl y into Hong Kong, Cathay has not faced serious competition from budget carriers based there. This may change in the future, with Qantas and China Eastern Airlines attempting to set up a Jet-

66 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/APRIL 27-MAY 10, 2015 AviationWeek.com/awst 10 years, Chu predicts. He says Cathay is “uniquely positioned Chu notes that Cathay’s goal is to connect Asia to North to capture this traffi c,” thanks to its subsidiary Dragonair, which America via its hub, and it has built out its North American operates fl ights to 22 points on the mainland. service over the past fi ve years. He cites the San Francisco Hong Kong’s growing ground transport links to the main- route as one example, which has increased to twice daily and land are eff ectively expanding Cathay’s home market. Instead will soon grow to 17 times a week. If that goes well, it will of regarding just Hong Kong as its catchment base, Chu notes increase to three times daily. that Cathay can draw traffi c from Guangdong province—a The next network goal for Cathay is boosting its Europe- market of more than 100 million people. Already, thousands an operation by adding more destinations and frequencies. of cars, ferries and buses cross the border into Hong Kong It started fl ights to Manchester in December, to Zurich in every day, and new rail and road projects will make Hong March and will introduce a Dusseldorf route in September. Kong even more accessible. While the European economy and currency remain rela- This will balance Cathay’s reliance on connecting traffi c tively weak, Cathay’s load factors and yields in this market to some extent. But Chu stresses that transit traffi c via the have been quite high. Strong outbound travel to Europe has Hong Kong hub will always be a core part of the airline’s helped make it “a pretty profi table operation,” says Chu. business and currently comprises about half its customers. Cathay’s network strategy is supported by its fl eet plans. Hong Kong’s hub status is highlighted by the fact that more The carrier has 22 Airbus A350-900s on order, with the fi rst than 63 million passengers came through the airport last year delivery expected in February. It also has 26 of the larger —making it the 10th busiest in the world—even though Hong A350-1000s in its order backlog and has agreed to buy 21 Kong itself only has a population of around 7 million. Half Boeing 777-9Xs for delivery from 2021. of that passenger total fl ew on either Cathay or Dragonair. The -900s will be well-suited to routes between European A planned third runway is vital for the continued growth cities and Asia, Chu says. These aircraft could either open of the Hong Kong hub, Cathay executives say, particularly new routes in this market, take over some 777-300ER ser- as other Asian hubs are vying for a larger share of con- vices or add frequency to existing 777 fl ights. While Europe necting traffi c. will be the primary focus for the -900s, the range and size Cathay’s network strategy is notable for its focus on build- of the -1000s will be a better fi t for the transpacifi c routes, ing multiple daily frequencies on trunk routes, rather than he says. spreading its fl ights more thinly over a larger number of Cathay decided at the end of 2013 to order the 777-9Xs destinations. Frequency is valued by business travelers, Chu instead of taking additional A350-1000s. The airline already says, and this approach also aids connectivity. For example, operates a fl eet of about 50 777-300ERs and is very pleased Cathay’s four daily fl ights to Sydney are timed to connect to with their performance. The fact that the -9Xs will be a fur- fi ve daily fl ights to London, making it one of the larger players ther improvement over the -300ERs makes them a compel- on the Kangaroo route. ling choice, Chu notes. Transpacifi c fl ights to North America have always been The 777-9Xs will have more capacity than the -1000s, which a major strength for Cathay. It has more than 100 fl ights will broaden Cathay’s size options on a given route. The car- a week to seven points in the U.S. and Canada, including rier also likes the idea of having two aircraft families—777s four fl ights a day to Los Angeles and fi ve to New York City and A350s—in its long-haul fl eet. metropolitan area airports. In general, the new widebody orders can be used for ei- ther expansion or aircraft replacement, Chu says. If Cathay decides it does not want to add capacity, it can return some Cathay Pacifi c’s extensive long- leased -300ERs as the newer types enter the fl eet. This haul network is based on its option, combined with its range of aircraft sizes, gives the workhorse 777-300ER fl eet. airline considerable fl exibility in its fl eet plan and allows it to be nimble in its response to the industry environment, he says. The A350s will begin arriving just as Cathay completes deliveries of existing fl eet types. It is due to receive the last four 777-300ERs from its current order by the end of this year, as well as its fi nal two Airbus A330s. The carrier is among the world’s largest operators of both types. Despite its substantial widebody order book , Cathay is also considering what additional fl eet moves it should make. Nar- rowbody replacement is one of the carrier’s next priorities, Chu says. This would cover the A320s and A321s operated by its subsidiary Dragonair. Although it is “not urgent,” it is “important that we look at” the replacement of these aircraft, he says. At the other end of the scale, Cathay is also watching to see what sort of off ering Airbus will come up with for an updated A380. If a new engine option yields greater effi ciency, “we’d be interested in looking at it,” says Chu. However, he stresses that Cathay is a big fan of the widebody twin-engine aircraft types, and the carrier would only consider a larger type if it off ered better operating economics. c

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Cathay—and Middle Eastern airlines Cargo Comeback have added a large volume of passenger aircraft belly capacity to this market, dampening freight yields. Cathay Pacifi c grows freight business In addition, the signifi cant weaken- as market rebounds ing of the euro has made imports into Europe more expensive. One posi- Adrian Schofi eld Hong Kong tive eff ect of the devaluation is that it should boost exports from countries hen Cathay Pacifi c opened a throughout the year,” says Woodrow. such as Germany, balancing fl ows in massive new cargo terminal Falling fuel prices, seaport congestion a market traditionally skewed toward Wand ordered three more Boe- on the U.S. West Coast, the launch of imports from Asia. ing 747-8 freighters in 2013, it seemed new high-tech consumer products, Cathay has also been working to to be taking a major risk. At that time, and automotive recalls have all helped build new markets. For example, it the airfreight industry was in the dol- maintain the momentum. has recently expanded freighter op- drums with no end in sight. But Cathay Beyond those factors, the growing erations in Mexico, and now has a persevered with its expansion plans “underlying strength” of the U.S. econ- fi ve-times weekly service that stops in and bet that cargo demand would omy has spurred demand on transpa- Mexico City and Guadalajara. Mexico come roaring back. cific routes, Woodrow says. This is a City is largely an import market, while Fast-forward to 2015, and Cathay’s big deal for Cathay, as the transpacifi c a lot of produce and high-tech exports bold moves have been justifi ed. Cargo is by far its largest cargo market, con- come from Guadalajara. demand is growing again, and the new necting Asia to North America via its The Mexico service is an extension aircraft and Hong Kong cargo hub are Hong Kong hub. of its Hong Kong-Los Angeles 747-8F helping the airline take advantage of Cathay has deployed its new fl eet of route. It would be risky to put five improvement in key markets. 747-8Fs on the North American routes, direct freighter fl ights a week into a With a fl eet of 22 freighter aircraft, and has steadily increased transpacifi c relatively new market, but a freighter Cathay is one of the largest cargo-car- frequencies to the point where it has may be dedicated to Mexico “once rying airlines in Asia. And the cargo 37 weekly freighter flights. The car- we’re confi dent that we’ve got steady division is crucial to the success of the rier operated up to 41 weekly fl ights in volumes,” says Woodrow. company—“it tends to be that when its October-November peak last year, India is another market where Ca- cargo does well, the [overall] business and Woodrow hopes to build up to 43- thay has been building its presence. It does well,” says James Woodrow, Ca- 45 weekly freighter fl ights during this recently launched freighter service to thay’s director of cargo. year’s peak. Kolkata, its sixth Indian destination. For many years, the opposite was Other markets are not as buoyant, The carrier has increased its cargo true—the dire cargo market was drag- however. Woodrow describes intra- network in India dramatically over ging down the airline’s profi ts, and the Asia cargo demand as merely “OK.” the last three years, as the Hong Kong same was happening to the other large While there is volume growth, it re- hub is geographically well-placed to Asian cargo carriers. mains a highly competitive market for connect India and China, the world’s The slump hit in earnest in early 2011, airfreight. two most populous nations. and lasted for almost three years. De- Asia-Europe fl ows are the most chal- Among Cathay’s greatest strengths mand fi nally began to improve in March lenging of Cathay’s three main cargo are its cargo services to the major 2014, and “got stronger and stronger markets. Asian carriers—including high-tech manufacturing centers in

Cathay Pacifi c’s 747-8F fl eet gives it a strong position in the transpacifi c cargo market.

CATHAY PACIFIC

68 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/APRIL 27-MAY 10, 2015 AviationWeek.com/awst mainland China—with five freighter the carrier has reduced the number body [passenger] aircraft as mini- destinations—and Southeast Asia, of freighters serving Europe in recent freighters,” Woodrow says. For example, which are connected to other regions years, it has much more belly capacity a 777-300ER with a light passenger load via Hong Kong. Serving a broad spread in that market as the passenger fl eet recently carried 36 metric tons of cargo of destinations from a strong hub “is the has added destinations and frequencies. on a single fl ight from Manchester. connectivity game that the Middle East This allows more direct connections to Cathay has no plans to order more carriers play, and we’re big enough that Hong Kong. freighters at the moment, says Wood- we can play it too,” says Woodrow. It also helps that the 777-300ERs row. The carrier “continually looks” at Cathay will grow its overall cargo in the passenger fleet have excellent its fl eet plan, although it will “see what capacity by about 10% this year, with cargo capacity. The airline now oper- the underlying strength of this [cargo] a similar increase in both its dedicated ates fi ve daily 777 passenger fl ights to recovery is” before contemplating freighters and in the belly capacity of London, and if each carries 20 tons of more orders. its passenger fleet, Woodrow says. It cargo, that represents about the same Because it has new belly space be- can do this because of the greater effi - capacity as a single daily 747 freighter. coming available, and the option to ciency of the new 747-8Fs, and the rising Similarly, Cathay has so many frequen- increase aircraft utilization, Cathay number of passenger aircraft such as cies to Singapore with its A330s that it still has the opportunity to raise cargo the 777-300ER that can also carry large can carry 150 tons of cargo every day capacity over the next few years, Wood- cargo volumes. on that route as belly cargo, in addition row says. “We’ll keep evaluating [the The airline has 13 747-8Fs and will to freighter services. fl eet], but we’re not in a rush to get our take delivery of its 14th next year—the “You have to think of modern wide- checkbook out at the moment.” c last of its current order for the type. Ca- thay also has six 747-400ERFs, and fi ve -400Fs of which three are operational with the remainder parked. Boeing agreed in 2014 to buy back FREIGHT HUB the six -400Fs that Cathay was operat- ing at the time. One was returned last athay Pacifi c’s new cargo terminal in Hong Kong is proving it can increase the effi - year, one will go this year, and the re- ciency of freight operations, both for Cathay and a growing number of other airline maining four in 2016. The carrier will C still fi nish the year with 22 operational customers. freighters, since the one returned will The HK$5.9 billion ($761.3 million) facility completed its fi rst full year of operations have been a parked aircraft. in 2014. Although it is still well short of its potential capacity, this year will likely see The freighter total is down signifi- signifi cant volume gains, says Kelvin Ko, CEO of Cathay Pacifi c Services Ltd. (CPSL). cantly from the fl eet in the “high twen- Last year the terminal handled 1.45 million metric tons of cargo, while its upper limit ties” it has previously operated, Wood- is estimated to be 2.6 million metric tons per year. This year Cathay expects to increase row says. But he notes that the carrier its own freight volumes (see related story), and new customer EVA Air will also boost has steadily increased the size of its freighters, and also frequencies in key the facility’s tonnage. markets, such as transpacifi c. Taiwan-based EVA shifted its freight operation to the Cathay terminal in January, Because the -8Fs are newer aircraft, becoming its largest external cargo customer. The facility already serves AirAsia, Thai Cathay can rely on high utilization AirAsia and Royal Brunei, as well as Cathay and its subsidiary airlines Air Hong Kong rates. It achieves up to 16 block hours and Dragonair. CPSL is seeking more customers, and is “constantly speaking to other a day per aircraft with the -8Fs, much airlines,” says Ko. higher than Cathay’s older 747 freighter Cathay’s new terminal joined other large players in the freight handling market at fl eets. “We can keep pushing their utili- zation; these are expensive assets so we Hong Kong International Airport, which is the world’s busiest cargo hub. Ko says the want to sweat them as much as we can,” terminal was always expected to have surplus capacity in the short-term. “You build a says Woodrow. “And we can [also] try to cargo terminal for long-term [demand]—you can’t open it bit by bit,” he says. “So once work our ERFs a bit harder.” it’s open, it’s a big step up.” Another potential option is retaining The terminal will naturally increase its effi ciency as volumes increase, says Ko. some of the -400Fs a bit longer. If Boe- However, it is already taking advantage of new technology and processes to improve ing has not found lease customers by processing times. the time they are due to be returned, Cathay could possibly continue to use Aircraft-to-aircraft transfers comprise more than half the freight handled at the them, Woodrow says. But any such de- terminal. The time it takes to unload, break down, process and reload cargo has been cision would likely depend on demand reduced from the standard 8 hr. to 5, and can even be cut to 3 hr. by prior arrange- strength and the price of fuel. For ex- ment. ample, if oil is back to $100 a barrel in Reducing the transshipment time between long-haul fl ights and Cathay’s Asian 2016, the carrier would be unlikely to network gives customers more business opportunities, and makes additional connect- pursue this alternative. ing city pairs viable, says the airline’s Cargo Director James Woodrow. “Anything that The continuing growth of the pas- c senger fleet is a major source of new drives speed and connectivity is good for our business.” cargo capacity for Cathay. Whereas

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ing and inspection to joining and sealing to enable faster, Faster Carbon more cost-efficient assembly of composite structures in high-rate production. The objective is to eliminate non-value- Europe’s aircraft industry seeks to added, mainly manual tasks that consume time and induce costs and so pave the way for composite-aircraft production pave way for high-rate production rates exceeding 50 a month. Airbus is building 42 A320-family aircraft a month and of carbon-fiber structures considering increasing this by 50% to 63 a month to burn down its eight-year backlog of orders, says Weiland. The Graham Warwick Paris A320 does not have as much carbon-fiber content as the new A350 widebody, production of which is being ramped up to omposites have been a leap forward in performance 13 a month, but when Airbus comes to replace the A320 with for commercial aircraft, but a step backward for pro- a new narrowbody it will need a rapid buildup in production Cduction costs. Advances made as the industry moved to 65-75 a month, Colin Sirett, head of R&T for Airbus UK, from riveting together sheet metal to machining complex told a manufacturing conference in September. parts from solid blocks of alloy have been surrendered in For carbon-fiber structural content of a next-generation sin- pursuit of saving weight. gle-aisle to be as high as it is in the A350 and Boeing 787 twin Advances have been made in automating the layup of car- aisles, the assembly issues with composites must be overcome. bon-fiber parts, but the assembly of composite structures “It’s a costly problem,” says Weiland. “We need to get the takt remains a labor-intensive task—which is problematic when time down to as short as possible.” In lean manufacturing, takt manufacturers are considering ramping up narrowbody pro- time is the average unit production time. To get to production duction rates to more than 60 aircraft a month. rates exceeding 50 aircraft a month, “we need to take out a lot The issue is not just that carbon-fiber structures have meant of manual actions and get a very quick takt time,” she says. a return to the steel-metal paradigm of manually assembling An example of the issues encountered in composite assem- many small parts, but that composites bring with them unique bly is the vertical tail plane (VTP) of the A350. Composite challenges with geometric variations from part to part that Technology Center (CTC) Stade, an Airbus company in Ger- have introduced many nonproductive steps into assembly. many, developed the next-generation carbon-fiber VTP, which “You are making the material as you make the part,” says is designed for highly automated assembly. But problems with Maria Weiland, director of research and technology (R&T) process stability and rate capability were encountered early business development at Saab Aerostructures and coordinator in production, says Joachim Piepenbrock, head of production of the EU-funded Low Cost Manufacturing and Assembly of composite systems at CTC Stade, speaking at the JEC Europe Composite and Hybrid Structures (Locomachs) project. 2015 composites-industry show in Paris in March. Not only do the fibers themselves differ in diameter, but the The cost of “non-quality”—the costs incurred by having to volume of resin varies from one part to the next. This results inspect and sometimes scrap parts—was greater than 25% in a buildup of tolerances in assembly that can be difficult to and the deviation in skin thickness ranged from +10% to -15%. accommodate in fixtures. Composite structures have to be CTC embarked on a process optimization and rebalanced VTP assembled and disassembled several times to measure and production to a two-shift from a three-shift operation. Vacuum shim gaps and drill and clean holes. This adds time that must the eliminated if production rates are to increase. Locomachs includes two physical partial-wingbox Locomachs is a €31 million ($33 million) research project, demonstrators, the nearer-term LAWiB and farther-term started in September 2012 with the aim of tackling the entire MIWiB and the virtual ReWiB to demo how the assembly chain from design and simulation through part manufactur- technologies scale up to a complete wing structure.

Europe’s Locomachs Composites Assembly Demonstrators

ReWiB

ReWiB = Reference Wingbox LAWiB LAWiB = Lean Assembly Wingbox MIWiB MIWiB = More Integrated Wingbox Source: Locomachs Project

70 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/APRIL 27-MAY 10, 2015 AviationWeek.com/awst Fabrication of large composite parts like this A350 wing skin has been automated, but assembly remains a complex task. bagging for autoclave curing of the parts was simplified and skin thickness adjusted, and “within three months we got to more than 90% good parts and a cost of non- quality less than 5%,” he says. Locomachs tackles the as- sembly problem in many ways, from designing more integrated structures with fewer interfaces between parts that need to be measured, drilled, shimmed and joined, to robots collaborating with humans to move and po- sition parts and drill and join structures in areas that are hard for a person to access. The control of the interface between the substructure and cover. AIRBUS project is developing simulation tools to predict gaps and Removing the feet from the rib and co-bonding them to the design shims for rapid additive manufacture, mobile systems upper cover means bolting the rib to the cover involves a flat for faster nondestructive inspection to keep parts moving, interface, and not a curved surface that is difficult to shim, and flexible assembly tooling that can accommodate varia- says Peters. MIWiB goes a step further and co-bonds the tions in part geometry. spars to the upper cover. Outer mold-line tooling is used for Overall objectives of the project are to develop design and the spar caps, to get a good interface. manufacturing rules for complex composite structures and A next step is increasing the accuracy with which parts fully integrate geometrical variation and tolerance manage- are manufactured, to reduce geometric variation and toler- ment into the computer-aided design tools. The demonstra- ance buildup. German aerospace center DLR is working on tion goals are to reduce the recurring costs of shimming an autoclave resin injection process for rate production of joints in assembly by 50% and of dismantling operations by composite parts in a controlled environment. “The challenge 30%, to increase the level of automation in joining operations is, at 50-plus aircraft a month, do composite parts have a and reduce the lead time for nondestruction inspection and chance?” asks Marcus Kleineberg, head of composite technol- test (NDI/NDT) by 30%. ogy development at DLR. “Composites have their own idea of The project includes two physical demonstrators—the Lean what tolerance means, so how can we produce competitive, Assembly Wingbox (LAWiB) using nearer-term technologies, high-accuracy parts?” and the More Integrated Wingbox (MIWiB) looking into the With a C-shaped machined aluminum rib as the reference future. Both are partial wingboxes designed to demo multiple part, GKN designed an L-shaped carbon-fiber rib (missing joining technologies. There are also two virtual demonstra- the upper feet) to be produced using DLR’s process. This uses tors designed to show that a selected set of technologies can ultrasonic pulse-echo sensors to detect the flow front as resin be scaled up—the Reference Wingbox (ReWiB) representing is infused into the part in the autoclave. The sensors are used a complete wing structure and the Reference Fuselage (Re- to monitor and adjust the fiber content volume and thickness Fus) comprising a large composite side-shell panel, to show of the part. Sensors also monitor the gelation point, when the the technologies can also apply to fuselage structures. resin sets, so the part can be removed from the autoclave as “The challenges of composite structures include the com- soon as it is cured. plexity of the tooling required, the number of process steps, “The geometric accuracy is comparable with aluminum. We the more complicated compensation for part distortion and produced eight ribs, and they all look the same,” says Kleine- the need to develop new techniques for nondestructive evalu- berg. “A production cost at the same level as aluminum is not ation,” says Kevin Peters, senior research project develop- easy, but we hope to get near to the cost of a heavily machined ment engineer at GKN Aerospace. What is required “is a aluminum rib. We are still calculating,” he says. “We also hope fundamental change from black-aluminum bolted carbon- to get some weight reduction.” Compared with the 7-kg metal- fiber to one-shot integrated structures,” he says. lic rib, the composite part weighs less than 3.5 kg. “We expect Locomachs begins by designing composite structures with to end up with a 25-30% weight saving with resizing,” he says. fewer parts so there are fewer interfaces to assemble. LAWiB DLR is developing additional sensors to detect mold de- has an integrated wing upper cover, with stiffening stringers formation during curing, to further increase part accuracy, and rib feet co-cured and co-bonded to the skin. The string- and is working on wireless sensing. “There is a lot of wiring ers have tapered feet to maximize the co-bond area, improve now. The next step necessary for series production is to go peel performance and to enable the rib feet to be co-cured wireless,” says Kleineberg. over them, which could not be done with a step join. Another step is to build a tolerance simulation capability Inner mold-line tooling (the inside and not the outside into the design tools. Predicting the variability is important, of the skin is against the mold) provides the most accurate because forcing parts together to close gaps during assem-

AviationWeek.com/awst AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/APRIL 27-MAY 10, 2015 71 ADVANCED MANUFACTURING bly introduces built-in stresses. “That’s a major concern for carrier foam are driven through the carbon-fi ber layup by carbon fi ber, which is why we use shimming,” says Hugo Fal- an ultrasonic gun, allowing for more integrated structures. garone, an engineer with Airbus Group Innovations. Nondestructive evaluation techniques now used with com- Locomachs is demonstrating a tolerance simulation pro- posites can keep parts immobile for long periods, so to reduce gram, Anatolefl ex, in which measurements of the fi rst parts the takt time Locomachs is demonstrating several faster and produced are used to create a deviation model. This is used more mobile NDI/NDT technologies. These include multi- in the simulation to predict gaps and create shim models for channel air-coupled ultrasonic inspection of hybrid compos- each individual aircraft on the production line. Shims are ite/metallic structures that cannot be immersed in water, the then 3-D-printed in situ by an additive-manufacture end-ef- usual medium used for ultrasonic testing. fector on a robot arm. “We will use Anatolefl ex in Locomachs Acousto-ultrasonics enables instantaneous imaging within to demonstrate anticipated shimming requirements and see a zone defi ned by a sparse array of ultrasonic probes in direct if it is possible to achieve shimless assembly,” says Falgarone. contact with the part. This is suited to components with com- Robotic 3-D-printed shims will tested on LAWiB. plex geometry and poor accessibility. Waves are generated One part of Locomachs is looking at alternatives to me- within the part that are sensitive to delamination and can chanical fasteners to reinforce joints. A technique being in- reveal fl aws by comparison with the reference signature of vestigated by Airbus is a metallic plate with vertical Z-pins a pristine specimen. Locomachs is developing a modular, re- that is adhesively bonded or co-cured into the carbon-fi ber confi gurable 16-probe array for use with LAWiB and MIWiB. joint to arrest disbonds or delamination. The integrated rein- With the goal of increasing automation in assembly, Locom- forcing step reduces cost and time, and project results show achs is looking at several ways robots can be used. One way is it increases damage tolerance and fatigue life. to use multiple electric-driven hexapod positioners within the Another technique GKN is investigating uses through- assembly fi xture to pick up and position large components like thickness reinforcement instead of bolted joints as anti-peel a wing spar. The devices will require 6 deg. of freedom (dof) devices at the ends of stringers. Narrow carbon Z-pins in and force feedback. Hexapods used in the automotive industry are only 3dof and not accurate enough. Another ap- proach is to use a robot arm as the tooling to hold a part in position for manual joining. Locomachs is demonstrating compact automa- tion for low-access areas by developing a robotic end-effector for one-shot drilling of hybrid com- posite/metallic stacks. Normally this is a manual process and the structure has to be disassembled to clean out waste from the drilling, but the robotic end-eff ector will both clamp and drill the component and eliminate the need for subsequent disassembly, says Weiland. Work on robot-human collaboration during as- sembly is being led by Sweden’s Linkoping Univer- sity. The goal is to combine the dexterity of humans with the repeatability of robots. One example is having a person on the outside of the structure inserting the fastener and a compact robot in the cramped inside space pulling through the pin, plac- ing the collar and swaging them together. The project includes a demonstration of how a multi-camera vision system using four Microsoft Kinect motion-sensing systems can provide a 360- deg. view around the robot. This could be used to create dynamic safety zones keeping humans and robots apart as they move around a structure, and be combined with path-planning algorithms to pre- dict the trajectory of the person and avoid collisions. These techniques will be tested during assembly of the LAWiB and MIWiB demonstrators. Under current plans, assembly of the wingboxes is planned to begin early in 2016. Because of a slow start to the complex project, which involves 31 European partners including Saab, Airbus, Bombardier and Alenia Aermacchi, Locomachs is now expected to take about six months longer than the 3.5 years Optimizing A350 vertical tail-plane planned. But Weiland says the technologies being production at Airbus CTC Stade has demonstrated remain well-aligned with the manu- reduced cost and increased the rate. facturers’ priorities as they face the challenges of ramping up composites to high production rates. c

AIRBUS 72 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/APRIL 27-MAY 10, 2015 AviationWeek.com/awst an important stipulation, because low-cost composites used Auto to Aero by carmakers will not meet aerospace strength, stiffness and damage tolerance requirements. Can aircraft manufacturers use Darpa has requested information on short-fiber compos- ites that have the same performance as continuous fibers low-cost, high-rate composite but enable injection processes and forming over contours. Spraying chopped fibers onto a mold is one technique used by technologies from the car industry? carmakers. But for aerospace use, unlike automotive, precise control of short-fiber orientation will be needed to provide Graham Warwick Paris the mechanical properties required. The agency is also interested in rapid high-performance o the aerospace and automotive industries, high-rate molding techniques to reduce cycle time, and conformable production means different things. For airframers it is product forms that enable complex shapes and small parts Thundreds of aircraft a year; for automakers hundreds of that are now too expensive to use on aircraft. Darpa is look- cars a day. And those vastly different outputs drive divergent ing for processes that allow multiple parts to be made on choices in structural materials and manufacturing processes. the same machine without drastic reconfiguration for each But, at first glance, it would appear the automotive and part. Other areas of interest include versatile automation to aerospace industries are drawing closer as carmakers strive reduce touch labor with reasonable capital equipment costs. to meet targets for reducing fuel consumption and emissions An illustration of what might be possible if more composite by switching to lightweight materials for vehicle bodies, in- parts can buy their way onto aircraft may be provided by cluding aviation’s staples: aluminum and carbon fiber. Formula One, which represents an amalgam of aerospace Structural composites got their start in aerospace, but at the JEC Europe composites-industry show in Paris in March, there were many more displays related to cars, buses, trams and trains than aircraft. And as the automotive industry em- braces composites, it is heading in new directions, driven by demand for low costs and high production rates. In high- volume carmaking, even 4 min. to make a part is too long. “In the late 1990s, the only market for composites was in aerospace because of oil prices,” says Edward Bernardon, vice president of strategic automotive initiatives at Siemens PLM Software. Vistagy, which developed the Fibersim com- posites engineering software and was acquired by Siemens in 2011, “started a group in Germany to look at the high-volume automotive market and how to make carbon-fiber parts more cost-effective,” he says.

Initially, carbon fiber was used only in high-performance BMW but low-volume supercars where material cost and manufac- turing cycle times are less critical. Then in 2009, BMW an- nounced it would build a small all-electric car using carbon- BMW’s i3 electric car has a carbon-fiber passenger cell. fiber composites. Deliveries of the i3 began late in 2013, but at 100 cars a day, it is at the lower end of the high-volume and automotive engineering. Design teams make extensive spectrum. Now automakers like PSA Peugeot Citroen are use of small carbon-fiber parts to shave weight off their race- looking at composites, but for rates exceeding 900 cars a day. cars. “Our F1 car is 80% constructed of advanced composite According to Bernardon, automotive composites are materials,” says Ian Goddard, research and development en- unique because of the faster design cycles—“designs can gineer with the Lotus team. “We use 34 different composite change daily or weekly for packaging reasons,” he says. As systems, 50 core variants and 10 structural adhesives. We a result, manufacturing processes developed by airframers make several thousand components and spend more than and carmakers have diverged. “Resin transfer molding of $2 million a year on pre-preg [material].” preforms is a big percentage in automotive, but only a small Lotus faces the same design challenges as larger carmak- percentage in aerospace,” he says. ers—aerodynamics, packaging, stiffness and crashworthi- But can the automotive industry’s push toward low-cost, ness—and uses Fibersim software for composites engineering, high-rate composites benefit aerospace? Darpa thinks so, and says Goddard. “F1 has an absolute obsession with weight” and, the Pentagon advanced research agency plans a program— like aircraft manufacturers, designers must pay extra atten- Aerospace Composites with Automotive Efficiencies—to sig- tion to fiber location and orientation. F1 is obsessed also with nificantly reduce the cost and time to make small composite reducing time, he adds, as faster design and manufacture can parts—less than 15 lb. and 15 ft.—for use in aircraft. put better components into the car 1-3 races earlier. Darpa believes materials and processes developed by The state of the art in composites use in volume car manu- the automotive industry could enable “build-rate insensi- facture is BMW’s Leipzig plant, where the i3 is produced as tive, less capital-intensive” composites production for aero- well as the i8 hybrid sports car. The i3 has an aluminum drive space—with the critical caveat that parts must maintain module that includes the batteries and motor, a passenger the performance of the intermediate-modulus carbon-fiber/ cell made from carbon fiber, a recycled carbon-fiber roof and toughened-epoxy systems now used in aircraft. And that is unreinforced thermoplastic body panels. The structure is

AviationWeek.com/awst AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/APRIL 27-MAY 10, 2015 73 ADVANCED MANUFACTURING manufactured by resin transfer molding (RTM) of carbon- used in a multi-material approach with steel,” says Tual. “We fi ber fabric supplied by SGF Automotive Carbon Fibers. hope it will be in production soon.” Fabric stacks are preformed in a heated mold press then PSA began with crashworthiness testing because it is trimmed to near-net shape with an ultrasonic knife. Next, the make or break for composites in cars, but it highlights a key multiple preforms making up each structural part are placed diff erence between automotive and aerospace. Airframers in a hydraulic press for high-pressure resin injection. Cured can track the use of their aircraft through their lives, while parts are trimmed by water jet, drilled and random samples carmakers have no idea how their vehicles will be treated inspected. Parts are then adhesively bonded together to as- after they leave the showroom. “After a crash, there will be semble the passenger cell. Handling and bonding of the RTM cracks in the composite, and we need to understand what is parts is performed by robots. critical. We do not yet understand how to measure the health Other parts are added robotically, including metal door of the structure,” she says. hinges, the thermoplastic crash-protection system and In a glimpse of a possible future for automotive compos- carbon-fi ber roll bar, then the passenger cell is attached to ites, at the Detroit Auto Show in January Oak Ridge National the drive module with adhesive and screws. Body panels are Laboratory (ORNL) unveiled a 3-D-printed Shelby Cobra injection-molded from thermoplastic in an automated opera- sports car. The vehicle was produced in ORNL’s Manufac- tion, with recycled material used for interior parts such as turing Demonstration Facility in Oak Ridge, Tennessee, door liners. using broad area additive manufacturing (BAAM). Where All this should sound familiar to the aerospace industry, conventional 3-D printing can produce parts of only limited except perhaps the mix of materials and use of robots—and size, BAAM can manufacture large composite components. the speed, BMW talking in terms of minutes for part forming The Cobra incorporates 500 lb. of printed parts made from to a few hours for assembly. But as volumes increase, so do 20% carbon fi ber, which required 24 hr. of print time. BAAM the diff erences. PSA Peugeot Citroen is looking at composites was developed by ORNL, working with Lockheed Martin, to reduce weight and emissions but needs processes that which was interested in using the process to produce un- work within existing factories as it cannot aff ord to build new manned-aircraft wings. Recent improvements developed in facilities to assemble such vehicles. “It’s a big challenge to partnership with machine builder Cincinnati Inc. include a introduce composite structural parts into mass production,” smaller print-bead size for a smoother surface fi nish. says Catherine Tual, innovation project manager. The fi rst drivable 3-D-printed car, the Strati, was com- As it develops the technology, the European carmaker is pleted last September when Local Motors, working with claiming a fi rst—demonstrating the crashworthiness of a Cincinnati and ORNL, built the vehicle over six days on the composite front fl oor module. This replaces the traditional exhibition fl oor at the International Manufacturing Technol- steel underbody with a self-supporting thermosetting resin ogy Show in Chicago. Additive manufacturing of the compo- fl oor reinforced with chopped glass fi ber. The module saves nents using BAAM took 44 hr., followed by fi nish machining 8 kg in a mid-range car, which should increase to 12 kg with and assembly. optimization, Tual says. Local Motors, which specializes in crowd-sourced design Parts count is reduced to four from 30, and welding of the of vehicles and operates a network of micro-factories to build steel fl oor is replaced by gluing and screwing. Cycle time for them, says 3-D printing reduced the parts count to fewer the full module is 2 min., she says, allowing the composite than 50 from 25,000, and from design to drive took less than fl oor to fi t within a production system turning out 550 cars six months. ORNL says the speed of next-generation addi- a day at PSA’s biggest plants. “The technology is compatible tive manufacturing off ers new opportunities for automakers, with the systems used to assemble car bodies and can be particularly in prototyping. c

This Shelby Cobra replica was built using carbon-fi ber additive manufacturing.

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76 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/APRIL 27-MAY 10, 2015 AviationWeek.com/awst Aerospace Calendar To submit Aerospace Calendar Listings Call +1 (703) 997-0227 e-mail: [email protected]

May 4—Association for Unmanned Vehicle Systems International’s Unmanned Systems 2015. Georgia World Congress Center, Atlanta. See www.auvsi.org/events1/ eventdescription/?CalendarEventKey=4b6a 54a9-2072-463b-9398-67c2c462ec2e May 6—American Institute of Aeronautics FACE-TO-FACE COMMUNICATION and Astronautics (AIAA) Spotlight Awards Gala. Washington. See www.aiaa.org/gala2015 HIGH-LEVEL CONTENT May 11-14—33rd Annual Space Power Workshop, Manhattan Beach (California) RELATIONSHIP BUILDING Marriott. See www.cvent.com/d/n4qbdc May 26-28—15th Annual Association of Old Crows’ Electronic Warfare Europe, Stockholm. See www.eweurope.com/page. We deliver the professional development you need. cfm/Action=Form/FormID=6/t=m May 26-29—Eighth Chaos Conference at Henri Poincare Institute, Paris. Learn more! www.aviationweek.com/events See www.cmsim.org June 1-5—University of Kansas Aerospace Short Course Program. Overland Park, Kansas. Also June 15-19 in Montreal. Plus Sept. 14-25 in San Diego. And Nov. 16-20 in Orlando, Florida. See www.aeroshortcourses.ku.edu June 4—Aerospace Today . . . and Tomorrow—An Executive Symposium. Williamsburg, Virginia. See Future Events www.aiaa.org/ATT2015 June 22-26—AIAA Forum and Exposition. May 5-6—MRO Baltics, Budapest, Hungary. Dallas. See www.aiaa-aviation.org June 27-29—AIAA Propulsion and Energy June 17—Commercial Aerospace Manufacturing Briefing, Paris. Forum and Exposition (Space 2015). Oct. 13-15—MRO Europe, London. Pasadena, California. See www.aiaa-space.org Nov. 3-5—MRO Asia, Singapore. Aug. 31-Sept. 2—Airports Council International Latin America-Caribbean Nov. 3-5—Aerospace Defense Chain, Scottsdale, Arizona. World Annual General Assembly 2015. Panama City. See www.aci-waga2015.com Oct. 8-12—Air Force Officer Candidate School Reunion. Montgomery, Alabama. Call Dave Mason at +1 (757) 820-3740 or [email protected] Nov. 10-12—International Aviation Women’s Association’s 27th Annual Conference, at Dubai air show. See www.iawa.org. Nov. 17-19—Aerospace Structural Dynamics International Conference. Seville, Spain. See www.asidiconference.org

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AviationWeek.com/awst AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/APRIL 27-MAY 10, 2015 77 Viewpoint BY STEPHEN D. VAN BEEK, PH.D. Stephen D. Van Beek, Ph.D., is vice president of ICF International and a former member of the FAA Manage- Time To Reform ment Advisory Council. Aviation Funding

JOEPRIESAVIATION.NET or the first time in at least 25 years, a policy reform which begins Oct. 1. Many remember the damage caused breeze is blowing in Washington. Attend any ma- by the first round, including controller furloughs, closure Fjor aviation meeting, such as the recent Chamber of the FAA academy, suspension of airport safety and of Commerce Aviation Summit, and you will hear politi- capacity projects and delays in certifying new aircraft, cal and aviation leaders express support for changing the parts and procedures. way we organize, fund and deliver the services and infra- Working behind the scenes over the past four years, two structure so vital to our aviation system. separate FAA Management Advisory Councils (MACs) Support is emerging for using this year’s FAA reau- have put together a set of consensus-based reform prin- thorization to address two pressing needs. First, where ciples that would address FAA financial stability and im- possible, remove the FAA’s services from the federal bud- prove air trafficcontrol. As MACs first deliberated and get process, where they are vulnerable to interruption. then released their principles, groups such as the Busi- Second, modernize the provision of air traffic control and ness Roundtable and the Eno Transportation Foundation other services by separating them from the FAA, allow- offered their own proposals vetted with significant seg- ing the agency to focus on its key regulatory mission. Pas- ments of the industry. Chairman Shuster and committee sage of an FAA reform effort would be the most sweeping members have a good base from which to work. and significant aviation policy reforms since 1978—when These efforts share three key ideas: the Airline Deregulation Act became law. šInsulate the FAA and aviation services. Remove major Leading the charge is House Transportation and Infra- FAA programs from the federal budget. Where possible, structure Committee Chairman Bill Shuster (R-Penn.), shift air traffic services, the funding of airport infrastruc- ture and certification to cost-recovery, user-pay systems.

Make sure safety, research and the needs of smaller Stakeholders are frustrated community airports—where it is challenging to recover

costs—have stable and sustainable funding mechanisms. with unmet promises for the šChange the ATC governance model: The U.S. is virtu- ally alone in operating its air traffic system through a “ “ ATC system, an outmoded and bureaucratic agency funded by ticket taxes and taxpay- ers. Other nations and the International Civil Aviation unfair tax system and airport Organization recognize that national regulatory agen- cies should focus on the provision of public goods such as infrastructure shortfalls. regulation and safety, not delivering user services. These systems typically separate the air traffic provider from who declares that he will try for “bold and transforma- the regulator, protecting the interests of the public while tional reform.” He has urged stakeholders—including enabling the efficiencies andaccess to capital of a com- airlines, airports, general aviation and labor—to put their mercialized provider. They also use governing boards parochial, and sometimes petty, disagreements aside in made up of customers and aviation professionals that set favor of the interests they have in common. Now that he goals, develop business strategies and hold their leader- has begun deliberations on the bill, aviation interests ap- ship accountable for performance. pear to be listening. šShift to cost-recovery and eliminate ticket taxes: Taxes Why? Stakeholders are frustrated with unmet promis- collected today are a hodgepodge series of charges unre- es for the air traffic control system, an outmoded and un- lated to the costs of providing services. The per-passen- fair tax system that does little to incentivize efficient use ger return from taxes is declining as ticketing practices of scarce resources and airport infrastructure shortfalls. have reduced the revenues that support FAA services. Most of all is the shared experience of living through a Far better, where possible, is to shift to a system under series of embarrassing budgetary train wrecks, including which air traffic, airport and certification services are sequestration, debt-limit fights, 23 short-term extensions paid directly as “business to business” transactions that of authorization and lapsed appropriations. flow to the balance sheet of users, protecting services and Over the past several years, each of these at one time encouraging efficient use (alternatives are available for or another forced the FAA to triage its operations and users who would like to pay through other methods). infrastructure investments, causing dislocations to trav- Historic reform is always hard. However, enough un- elers as well as the FAA, airlines, airports and the em- met needs, broken promises and policy failures have con- ployees who work for them. For many, the biggest priority vinced a core group of farsighted leaders and stakehold- is to avoid a second round of sequestration in fiscal 2016, ers that our system deserves better. Now is the time. c

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