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N Vel Weapon and Pe CENTRE DELÀS REPORT 39 N VEL WEAPON AGAINST ETH CS AND PE PLE Armed Drones and Autonomous Drones Authors: Joaquín Rodríguez, Xavi Mojal, Tica Font, Pere Brunet Centre Delàs d’Estudis per la Pau Carrer Erasme de Janer 8, entresol, despatx 9 08001 Barcelona T. 93 441 19 47 www.centredelas.org [email protected] Authors: Joaquín Rodríguez, Xavi Mojal, Tica Font, Pere Brunet Barcelona, November 2019 Graphic and layout: Esteva&Estêvão Photos: cover, Bobbi Zapka, U.S. Air Force; p. 5, Jessica Crownover/U.S. Navy; p. 9, Neil Ballecer/ California Air National Guard; p. 11, Karsten Franke/Wikimedia Commons; p. 16, Capricorn4049/ Wikimedia Commons; p. 25, Daniel McLain /U.S. Navy; p. 26a, Brian Ferguson/U.S. Air Force; p. 26b, AeroVironment; p. 26c, www.defenceimagery.mod.uk/OGL; p. 41, U.S. Army; p. 46, Kevin Steinberg/U.S. Navy; p. 56, Julian Herzog/Wikimedia Commons; p. 61 www.defenceimagery.mod.uk D.L.: B-19744-2010 ISSN: 2013-8032 INDEX Executive summary . 5 1 . Introduction . 9 2 . The New Methods of War . 11 2.1 Cyberspace, cyberwar and cyberweapons.......................12 2.2 Robots as weapons.............................................14 3 . Robotic Military Systems . 16 3.1 Novel Weapons. Classification. Drones ..........................16 3.2 Automation, Autonomy and Learning. Lethal Autonomous Weapon Systems........................................................19 4 . The Current Situation . 25 4.1 Main Countries and Drones .....................................25 4.2 Actions on Civilian Population.................................. 36 4.3 Present AI Research with Potential Application to Military Drones ..............................................37 5 . Proliferation, Emergent Countries, and Dual Use . 41 5.1 Dual use, proliferation and emerging producer countries: the cases of Turkey and Iran ....................................41 5.2 Turkey, ambition and success .................................. 43 5.3 Iran, will and perseverance despite sanctions ..................44 6 . International effort against autonomous armament . 46 6.1 Introduction ................................................... 46 6.2 Historic of the fight against the militarization of the IA..........48 7 . Robotic Weapons, War and Ethics . 55 7.1 Legal and ethical challenges. Precautionary Principle............55 7.2 Principle of liability .............................................56 7.3 Principle of discrimination or distinction ........................57 7.4 Principle of proportionality .....................................57 7.5 Ethics in automated weapon systems ......................... 58 7.6 Software production........................................... 58 8 . Conclusions . 60 9 . Bibliography . 63 ANNEX 1 . 68 ANNEX 2 . 156 Authors of the Report Chapters, and Acknowledgements . 158 NOVEL WEAPONS AGAINST ETHICS AND PEOPLE: ARMED DRONES AND AUTONOMOUS DRONES 3 Executive SUMMARY Military and “security” actions with military robotic and armed systems have radically changed the war scenarios, which have evolved from con- centrating on military and strategic targets to performing attacks that can seriously affect uninvolved civilian population. Attacks with armed drones often do not appear in newspapers, but they show a steady growth rate in recent years. They are attacks that end up killing civil- ians, as well as perpetrating summary and extrajudicial executions of supposedly terrorist people. Lately, in addition, the military drones are evolving to incorporate autonomous systems of decision. This es- calation towards autonomous armed systems is ethically and legally unacceptable, because delegating in a machine the decision to kill is something that goes against the human dignity and the rights of people . The New Weaponry Business Robotic military systems, and in particular the drones, have managed to drastically reduce military operations while significantly increasing the business volume of the military industrial sector . The sector of com- panies that manufacture and export military drones and the high-tech instrument used in modern wars is expanding rapidly. Border surveillance systems are other types of systems that have been designed specifically to monitor (and, if necessary, attack) civilians. Mon- itoring and control systems armed with drones are being used, among other countries, in Israel, South Korea, the United States and Europe (the Frontex Agency). NOVEL WEAPONS AGAINST ETHICS AND PEOPLE: ARMED DRONES AND AUTONOMOUS DRONES 5 The Geography of the Military Drones The perception of the possibility of starting wars without risk can make military solutions prevail over Military drones are manufactured mainly in the those based on diplomacy, lowering thresholds to United States, Israel, Russia, China and Europe. initiate military actions. Artificial intelligence will The United States is clearly the world leader in the make it easier to think on more abstract distance creation and manufacture of robotic military systems, wars, which can lead to more military actions and an military drones and armed drones. The Report tables uncontrolled escalation of conflicts . show the current state of these military systems. The United States, Israel, Russia and China are actively Fallacies and false messages working in the development of weapon systems that allow a significant degree of autonomy, especially in Over the last decade a false narrative has been built the case of loitering drones and drone swarms. The on the goodness of artificial intelligence that has big exporting companies are located in the United a tendency to ignore all those aspects that experts States, Israel, Russia and China. This report opens and academics are expressing. In fact, robotic military the way to know who are the big players (countries systems with constructive autonomy have unex- and companies) in this field and who can be the lead- plained behaviours, with a guaranteed probability ers in drone autonomy. of error that is significant and not small. This makes them essentially unsuitable in situations where er- The first wave of drones came from the United States, rors will be human lives and where accountability followed by Israel, Russia and China. After that, re- will be difficult. search and production started on some other coun- tries, including Turkey and Iran, who decided to The Danger of Emerging Autonomy successfully promote domestic research and produc- tion, forced by the international context - complicated Loitering drones and drone swarms can easily in- relations of Turkey with NATO, or the embargo in Iran corporate autonomous decision-making systems. -. These two countries are using drones internally or They are economical, being within reach of a large in various conflicts in the Middle East. number of countries, and can therefore change the geopolitical map of armed conflicts. The incorpora- The manufacturing countries include Germany, Aus- tion of constructive autonomy in robotic military tria, Belarus, Brazil, Colombia, South Korea, Spain, systems and loitering drones, and the development the United States, France, Hungary, India, Iran, Israel, of new drone swarms is something that will most Italy, Latvia, Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan, Poland, Unit- likely change war scenarios. ed Kingdom, Russia, Serbia, Sweden, Norway, Tur- key, China, and Ukraine. The user countries include Autonomous weapons place us in a dehumanization these countries and in addition Canada, Azerbaijan, scenario. To delegate the decision to kill on a ma- Chile, Brazil, Greece, Thailand, Philippines, Vietnam, chine goes against human dignity and the rights of Zambia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, Qatar, Lebanon, Aus- the people. The ethical problem appears when mili- tralia, Afghanistan, Indonesia, Egypt, Latvia, Holland, tary systems are not operated by people and perform Czech Republic, Japan, Belgium, Uzbekistan, Jordan, their tasks with autonomy of use, without human Arab Emirates, Algeria, Saudi Arabia and Iraq among intervention in the decision and attack processes. others. Proportionality, Distinction, Wars Without Risk Responsibility, and Precaution Double use is a feature inherent in military tech- Autonomous weapons systems should respect the nologies, and of course, the drones, which refers to legal principle of proportionality, which analyses the convertibility of civilian applications, products or whether the damages caused are proportional to the components to the military. Dual use complicates the military gains obtained or if the damages (to civilians) regulation or prohibition of drones, which, combined are excessive. On the other hand, it is necessary to with its advantages for states and non-state groups, respect the legal principle of distinction that forces have facilitated proliferation. Many states have offi- to distinguish between combatants and non-combat- cial positions that are still not defined, but in practice ants. The question is whether these weapons systems they have decided to opt for the use of military robotic can understand the context; distinguishing between systems and military drones for reasons of compet- a civilian with fear and a threatening enemy, and if itiveness: “if the others do it, we must do it, not to be they can understand the intentions behind a human left behind”. face expression. Finally, these weapon systems must 6 NOVEL WEAPONS AGAINST ETHICS AND PEOPLE: ARMED DRONES AND AUTONOMOUS DRONES respect the principle of responsibility: if there is an tives, and which therefore prohibits robotic military error or a war crime,
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