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2017 9th International Conference on Cyber Conflict: Defending the Core H. Rõigas, R. Jakschis, L. Lindström, T. Minárik (Eds.) 30 MAY - 02 JUNE 2017, TALLINN, ESTONIA 2017 9TH International ConFerence on CYBER ConFlict: DEFENDING THE CORE Copyright © 2017 by NATO CCD COE Publications. All rights reserved. IEEE Catalog Number: CFP1726N-PRT ISBN (print): 978-9949-9904-0-5 ISBN (pdf): 978-9949-9904-1-2 COPyright AND REPrint Permissions No part of this publication may be reprinted, reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior written permission of the NATO Cooperative Cyber Defence Centre of Excellence ([email protected]). This restriction does not apply to making digital or hard copies of this publication for internal use within NATO, and for personal or educational use when for non-profit or non-commercial purposes, providing that copies bear this notice and a full citation on the first page as follows: [Article author(s)], [full article title] 2017 9th International Conference on Cyber Conflict: Defending the Core H. Rõigas, R. Jakschis, L. Lindström, T. Minárik (Eds.) 2017 © NATO CCD COE Publications Printed COPIES OF THIS PUBlication are AVAILABLE From: NATO CCD COE Publications Filtri tee 12, 10132 Tallinn, Estonia Phone: +372 717 6800 Fax: +372 717 6308 E-mail: [email protected] Web: www.ccdcoe.org Head of publishing: Jaanika Rannu Layout: Jaakko Matsalu LEGAL NOTICE: This publication contains opinions of the respective authors only. They do not necessarily reflect the policy or the opinion of NATO CCD COE, NATO, or any agency or any government. NATO CCD COE may not be held responsible for any loss or harm arising from the use of information contained in this book and is not responsible for the content of the external sources, including external websites referenced in this publication. NATO COOPeratiVE CYBER DEFence Centre OF EXcellence The NATO Cooperative Cyber Defence Centre of Excellence is a NATO-accredited knowledge hub, research institution, and training and exercise facility. The Tallinn-based international military organisation focuses on interdisciplinary applied research, consultations, trainings and exercises in the field of cyber security. NATO CCD COE is the home of the Tallinn Manual 2.0 on the International Law Applicable to Cyber Operations. The Centre organises the world’s largest and most complex international technical cyber defence exercise Locked Shields and the annual conference on cyber conflict, CyCon. The Centre is a multinational and interdisciplinary hub of cyber defence expertise, uniting practitioners from 20 nations. The heart of the Centre is a diverse group of experts: researchers, analysts, trainers, educators. The mix of military, government and industry backgrounds means the NATO CCD COE provides a unique 360-degree approach to cyber defence. The organization supports its member nations and NATO with cyber defence expertise in the fields of technology, strategy, operations, and law. The Centre is staffed and financed by its sponsoring nations and contributing participants. Belgium, the Czech Republic, Estonia, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Poland, Slovakia, Spain, Turkey, the United Kingdom and the United States are signed on as Sponsoring Nations of the NATO Cooperative Cyber Defence Centre of Excellence. Austria and Finland have become Contributing Participants, Sweden has applied for membership in the same format, a status eligible for non-NATO countries. CYCON 2017 SPonsors TABLE OF Contents Introduction 1 The Coming of Cyber Espionage Norms 7 Martin Libicki Organisational Integration of Offensive Cyber Capabilities: 25 A Primer on the Benefits and Risks Max Smeets Mission Assurance: Shifting the Focus of Cyber Defence 43 Brad Bigelow Core Illumination: Traffic Analysis in Cyberspace 55 Kenneth Geers Trading Privacy for Security in Cyberspace: 73 A Study Across the Dynamics of US Federal Laws and Regulations Between 1967 and 2016 Ido Sivan-Sevilla The Role of International Human Rights Law in the 93 Protection of Online Privacy in the Age of Surveillance Eliza Watt The Misuse of Protected Indicators in Cyberspace: 107 Defending a Core Aspect of International Humanitarian Law Jeffrey Biller Update to Revolving Door 2.0: The Extension 121 of the Period for Direct Participation in Hostilities Due to Autonomous Cyber Weapons Tassilo V. P. Singer From the Vanishing Point Back to the Core: 135 The Impact of the Development of the Cyber Law of War on General International Law Kubo Mačák Control and Capabilities Test: Toward a New 149 Lex Specialis Governing State Responsibility for Third Party Cyber Incidents Peter Z. Stockburger Defending the Grid: Backfitting 163 Non-Expandable Control Systems Robert Koch, Teo Kühn Crowdsourcing Security for 181 Wireless Air Traffic Communications Martin Strohmeier, Matt Smith, Matthias Schäfer, Vincent Lenders, Ivan Martinovic Scalable Architecture for Online Prioritisation of Cyber Threats 199 Fabio Pierazzi, Giovanni Apruzzese, Michele Colajanni, Alessandro Guido, Mirco Marchetti On the Security of the Blockchain BIX Protocol and Certificates 217 Riccardo Longo, Federico Pintore, Giancarlo Rinaldo, Massimiliano Sala Biographies 233 INTRODUCTION The 9th International Conference on Cyber Conflict (CyCon 2017), organised by the NATO Cooperative Cyber Defence Centre of Excellence (NATO CCD COE), once again brings together professionals from governments, the military, academia and the private sector with the aim of discussing and proposing solutions for issues related to cyber security and defence. CyCon continues to serve the cyber security community’s technical experts, strategic thinkers, policymakers and lawyers as an interdisciplinary platform for networking and sharing knowledge. The call for papers for CyCon 2017 invited submissions on the topic ‘Defending the Core’. Digitalisation has transformed, often disrupted, our way of life, bringing innumerable social and economic benefits, while at the same time technological dependencies have altered security risks. No future conflict is likely to be fought without a cyber element. However, establishing effective defensive measures is difficult. The cross-border and ever-expanding nature of digital technologies complicates our understanding of critical cyber dependencies, threats and vulnerabilities. The call for papers was thus looking to address questions such as: What are the ‘core’ elements of cyber security? How do they relate to essential assets and principles in the technical, legal and political spheres? How can critical (information) infrastructure be protected? How can critical vulnerabilities be mitigated and the most detrimental threats countered? How can legal frameworks be established and applied in the cyber security realm? What technologies can help nations to counter emerging cyber threats? How can effective cyber security strategies be developed and implemented? What should be the role of the armed forces? How can cyber operations against core (national) assets be deterred? These questions provided inspiration for nearly 200 abstract proposals submitted in October 2016. After many rounds of peer review, 14 articles were accepted for this proceedings book, which form the ‘backbone’ of the conference’s sessions and workshops. CyCon’s interdisciplinary nature is reflected in this collection of articles, which can be broadly categorised into three sections: strategy, law and technology. The publication starts with a focus on strategic cyber security issues, as Martin Libicki provides his perspective on how states can establish effective international norms to limit cyber espionage. This is followed by Max Smeets, who analyses the possible benefits and risks of organisational integration of national offensive cyber capabilities. When discussing the challenges stemming from NATO’s decision to recognise cyberspace as an operational domain, Brad Bigelow highlights the importance of mission assurance and advocates for a clear role for the NATO Command Structure. The strategy section ends with Kenneth Geers, who emphasises the importance and often underestimated value of traffic analysis in cyberspace. Articles devoted to legal issues start with Ido Sivan-Sevilla’s study of the dynamics of United States federal law with regard to the privacy and security debate. Privacy is also addressed by Eliza Watt, who writes about the role of international human rights law in the protection of online privacy, focusing on the extraterritorial application of human rights treaties. 1 Jeffrey Biller’s contribution then looks at a topical issue in international humanitarian law: the misuse of protected indicators in cyberspace. International humanitarian law is also represented by the following article by Tassilo V. P. Singer, who examines the possible extension of the period of direct participation in hostilities due to autonomous cyber weapons. Emerging international law is discussed in the last two legal articles. Kubo Mačák provides his view of how general international law is influenced by the development of the cyber law of war; and finally,Peter Z. Stockburger observes that there may be arising a new lex specialis governing state responsibility for third party cyber incidents: a ‘control and capabilities’ test. The third section of the book covers technical cyber security matters. Focussing on the defence of core infrastructure,
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