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Micrdrilms International 300 N IRANO-AMERICAN MILITARY AND POLITICAL RELATIONS DURING THE 1970S. Item Type text; Thesis-Reproduction (electronic) Authors Wolfgang, Karl Fredrick. Publisher The University of Arizona. Rights Copyright © is held by the author. Digital access to this material is made possible by the University Libraries, University of Arizona. Further transmission, reproduction or presentation (such as public display or performance) of protected items is prohibited except with permission of the author. Download date 07/10/2021 23:24:55 Link to Item http://hdl.handle.net/10150/274948 INFORMATION TO USERS This reproduction was made from a copy of a document sent to us for microfilming. While the most advanced technology has been used to photograph and reproduce this document, the quality of the reproduction is heavily dependent upon the quality of the material submitted. 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Zeeb Road Ann Arbor, Ml 48106 1322378 WOLFGANG, KARL FREDRICK IRANO-AMERICAN MILITARY AND POLITICAL RELATIONS DURING THE 1970S THE UNIVERSITY OF ARIZONA M.A. 1983 University Microfilms International 300 N, Zeeb Road, Ann Arbor, MI 48106 Copyright i983 by WOLFGANG, KARL FREDRICK All Rights Reserved IRANO-AMERICAN MILITARY AND POLITICAL RELATIONS DURING THE 1970s by Karl Fredrick Wolfgang A Thesis Submitted to the Faculty of the DEPARTMENT OF ORIENTAL STUDIES In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of MASTER OF ARTS WITH A MAJOR IN NEAR EASTERN STUDIES In the Graduate College THE UNIVERSITY OF ARIZONA 19 8 3 Copyright 1983 Karl Fredrick Wolfgang STATEMENT BY AUTHOR This thesis has been submitted in partial fulfillment of re­ quirements for an advanced degree at The University of Arizona and is deposited in the University Library to be made available to borrowers under rules of the Library. Brief quotations from this thesis are allowable without special permission, provided that accurate acknowledgment of source is made. Requests for permission for extended quotation from or reproduction of this manuscript in whole or in part may be granted by this copyright holder. SIGNED: APPROVAL BY THESIS DIRECTOR This thesis has been approved on the date shown below: i —i / ;x/ /V/ <r.3 1IDWIG W.I. ADAMEC I Date Professtr of Oriental Studies ACKNOWLEDGMENT I thank Dr. Ludwig W. Adamec, Lieutenant Colonel Baltes, Dr. William Royce, and my parents for advice and encouragement given to me while completing this thesis. I offer a special thanks to Joan Farmer whose typing and editorial skills as well as legwork has guided this thesis through the University administrative system. TABLE OF CONTENTS Page LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS vi I LIST OF TABLES vi i i ABSTRACT ix 1. HISTORICAL FOUNDATIONS OF THE SHAH'S REGIONAL MILITARY FORCE I 2. THE DECISION-MAKING ENVIRONMENT 17 The Domestic Sphere ..... 18 American Public Opinion Defines Govern­ mental Foreign Policy Options 18 Iranian Public Opinion is Virtually Inconsequential " 2k Limited Bureaucratic Dynamics in Iran 25 American Bureaucratic Interest Split On Arms Sales 26 The Individual 57 The Shah Defined Political Legitimacy in Terms of Renascent Achaemenid Power 58 Nixon Remains Wary of a Communist Threat to World Peace 62 The International Sector 65 World Order Moves toward Multipolarity 65 The Changing World Order Requires American Policy Revisions 67 American Decision-makers Reacted to an Over­ rated Assessment of Soviet Activity 70 Iran and Saudi Arabia Assume New Roles in the Gulf System 74 A Caveat Accompanies the Application of the Hoi sti Model to the I rano-American Dyad 77 3. AMERICAN AND IRANIAN INTERESTS ' . 80 Common Interests In Oil and Other Trsde Relations .... 8A Security in the Gulf Subsystem 87 V TABLE OF CONTENTS—Continued . Page A. THREATS 100 Analytical Framework 100 Radicals Fail to Exploit Historical Tensions .... 104 The Iraqi Threat 107 Popular Democratic Republic of Yemen 122 Racial and Ethnic Divisions 123 Ethnic Groups in Western Iran Pose Little Threat to Iranian Interests 124 Kurdistan 125 Khuzistan 126 Radical Inroads into Baluchistan 128 Political and Economic Inequities 132 Poverty Brings Instability 134 Dealing with Inequities 136 Rebellion in Oman 140 Commandos 144 Lessons 146 Soviet Activity in the Gulf and Indian Ocean 148 5. ARMS TRANSFERS AS A VEHICLE FOR PROTECTING INTERESTS .... 171 Hypothetical Deterrence 171 Nixon Doctrine: Adaptation to Changing Environments . 174 Iran's Independent National Policy: Activist Role In the Gulf 178 Irano-American Cooperation 183 Problems in Strategic Communication 187 Deterrence Theory Invalid 189 6. IRANIAN MILITARY CAPABILITIES 193 Up-front Capabilities to Meet the Soviet Threat 198 Iran versus Iraq: Qualitative Spiral but No Arms Race 217 Reactive Purchases 219 Political Posturing as an Element of the Arms Spiral 231 Iran's Maritime Mission 232 Prisoners' Dilemma in Conventional Arms 240 Initial Dependence, Long-term Independence 243 Excess Transfers: Planned or Accidental? 252 Conclusions 255 vi TABLE OF CONTENTS—Continued Page 7. CONCLUSION 256 SELECTED BIBLIOGRAPHY 269 LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS Figure Page 1. Flow of initiative, perceptions, and responses 3 2. Possible distortion of international communication .... 3 3. Iranian military expenditures—1969-1978 56 k. Misperception intensifies conflict ..... 95 5. Conservative monarchies, liberalizing Arab States and radical states 102 6. Racial and ethnic divisions 102 7. Politically powerful vs. disenfranchised; "halves" vs. "have nots" 103 8. Ethnic groups and location of oil deposits in Northern Iraq 116 9. Oil exports to COMECON nations 159 10. Selected COMECON imports in 1972 159 11. Soviet ship days in the Indian Ocean 163 12. Traditional concept of deterrence 173 13. Putative power circle 178 l*t. Cost-utility S-curve 195 15. Defensive capabilities of Soviet and American aircraft 226 vii LIST OF TABLES Table Page 1. In the event a nation is attacked by Communist-backed forces, what action would you want to be taken? . 22 2. Prominence of executive agreement over treaties in making significant military commitments: \3k5-\9~Jk 51 3. Decision-making environment in the 1970s 78 American and Iranian interests 82 5. Per capita income of Gulf States In United States dol lars . 113 6. Irano-lraqi missile acquisitions 220 7. Irano-lraqi tactical acquisitions ....... 222 8. Irano-lraqi land acquisitions 224 vi i i ABSTRACT Irano-American interests in the Persian Gulf region during the 1970s developed into a Ricardian relationship based on exchange of petroleum and technology. Access to petroleum was strategically impor­ tant to the West. The Shah felt that the acquisition of technology would help to.legitimize his regime. Based on the rational actor deterrence model, increasing Iranian military power would protect Irano-American interests. However, factors throw into question the validity of this employed model. Based on the region's military environment, Iran acquired a proper weapons mix. However, Iran did not have enough indigenous resources to support the planned military force structure. Iran's strategy of aggrandizing its power dictated military strategy. Neither strategy could provide long-term regional security. At best, arms allay insecurities while states try to promote inter­ dependence. This thesis employs a conceptual-analytical approach to determine how supposed threats to Irano-American interests developed. Hypotheses from social sciences are used to suggest explanations for enigmatic events. ix CHAPTER 1 HISTORICAL FOUNDATIONS OF THE SHAH'S REGIONAL MILITARY FORCE In 1968 the British Raj announced the withdrawal of its forces stationed east of the Suez Canal. Think tanks and governments alike feared the ending of the age of British paternalism would leave a power vacuum in the Persian Gulf region that would lead to regional destabil- ization. Basically, there would seem to be three principal threads to stability
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