US-Iraq Relations, Oil, and the Struggle for the Persian Gulf Alexander Alamovich Navruzov Concordia University - Portland, [email protected]
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Foreign Policy Trends in the GCC States
Autumn 2017 A Publication based at St Antony’s College Foreign Policy Trends in the GCC States Featuring H.E. Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al-Thani Minister of Foreign Affairs State of Qatar H.E. Sayyid Badr bin Hamad Albusaidi Secretary General of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs Sultanate of Oman H.E. Ambassador Michele Cervone d’Urso Head of Delegation to Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman & Qatar European Union Foreword by Kristian Coates Ulrichsen OxGAPS | Oxford Gulf & Arabian Peninsula Studies Forum OxGAPS is a University of Oxford platform based at St Antony’s College promoting interdisciplinary research and dialogue on the pressing issues facing the region. Senior Member: Dr. Eugene Rogan Committee: Chairman & Managing Editor: Suliman Al-Atiqi Vice Chairman & Co-Editor: Adel Hamaizia Editor: Adam Rasmi Associate Editor: Rana AlMutawa Research Associate: Lolwah Al-Khater Research Associate: Jalal Imran Head of Outreach: Mohammed Al-Dubayan Broadcasting & Archiving Officer: Oliver Ramsay Gray Copyright © 2017 OxGAPS Forum All rights reserved Autumn 2017 Gulf Affairs is an independent, non-partisan journal organized by OxGAPS, with the aim of bridging the voices of scholars, practitioners and policy-makers to further knowledge and dialogue on pressing issues, challenges and opportunities facing the six member states of the Gulf Cooperation Council. The views expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessar- ily represent those of OxGAPS, St Antony’s College or the University of Oxford. Contact Details: OxGAPS Forum 62 Woodstock Road Oxford, OX2 6JF, UK Fax: +44 (0)1865 595770 Email: [email protected] Web: www.oxgaps.org Design and Layout by B’s Graphic Communication. -
A WAY FORWARD with IRAN? Options for Crafting a U.S. Strategy
A WAY FORWARD WITH IRAN? Options for Crafting a U.S. Strategy THE SOUFAN CENTER FEBRUARY 2021 A WAY FORWARD WITH IRAN? OPTIONS FOR CRAFTING A U.S. STRATEGY A WAY FORWARD WITH IRAN? Options for Crafting a U.S. Strategy THE SOUFAN CENTER FEBRUARY 2021 Cover photo: Associated Press Photo/Photographer: Mohammad Berno 2 A WAY FORWARD WITH IRAN? OPTIONS FOR CRAFTING A U.S. STRATEGY CONTENTS List of Abbreviations 4 List of Figures 5 Key Findings 6 How Did We Reach This Point? 7 Roots of the U.S.-Iran Relationship 9 The Results of the Maximum Pressure Policy 13 Any Change in Iranian Behavior? 21 Biden Administration Policy and Implementation Options 31 Conclusion 48 Contributors 49 About The Soufan Center 51 3 A WAY FORWARD WITH IRAN? OPTIONS FOR CRAFTING A U.S. STRATEGY LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS BPD Barrels Per Day FTO Foreign Terrorist Organization GCC Gulf Cooperation Council IAEA International Atomic Energy Agency ICBM Intercontinental Ballistic Missile IMF International Monetary Fund IMSC International Maritime Security Construct INARA Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act INSTEX Instrument for Supporting Trade Exchanges IRGC Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps IRGC-QF Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps - Qods Force JCPOA Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action MBD Million Barrels Per Day PMF Popular Mobilization Forces SRE Significant Reduction Exception 4 A WAY FORWARD WITH IRAN? OPTIONS FOR CRAFTING A U.S. STRATEGY LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1: Iran Annual GDP Growth and Change in Crude Oil Exports 18 Figure 2: Economic Effects of Maximum Pressure 19 Figure 3: Armed Factions Supported by Iran 25 Figure 4: Comparison of Iran Nuclear Program with JCPOA Limitations 28 5 A WAY FORWARD WITH IRAN? OPTIONS FOR CRAFTING A U.S. -
An International Armed Conflict of Low Intensity
THE WAR REPORT THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA AND THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF IRAN: AN INTERNATIONAL ARMED CONFLICT OF LOW INTENSITY Aeria view of the Persian Gulf, © NASA DECEMBER 2019 I MILOŠ HRNJAZ THE GENEVA ACADEMY A JOINT CENTER OF Iranian Prime Minister, Mohammed Mosaddeq, pushed CLASSIFICATION OF THE CONFLICT for nationalization of the oil fields and the Shah signed The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of this decision. The response of the British was harsh as they Iran were engaged in an international armed conflict (IAC) saw oil from Iran as a strategic interest. Both Iranians and in June 2019 by virtue of Iran’s shooting down a US military the British expected the support of the US. The Americans drone and the alleged counter cyber-attack by the US. pushed Britain to cancel plans for a military invasion, so the British decided to look for alternative ways to overthrow Mosaddeq. The new US administration wasn’t impressed HISTORY OF THE CONFLICT with Mosaddeq either (especially his flirting with the USSR and the communist Tudeh Party of Iran), so it decided to BACKGROUND actively participate in his overthrow and arrest. This was It has been more than 160 years since the first Treaty perceived by Iranians as the ultimate betrayal by America of Friendship and Commerce was signed between Iran and the event played an important role in the development and the US, exactly 140 years since the first US warship of Iranian political identity and anti-Americanism since entered the Persian Gulf and almost 140 years since Iran then.5 Mosadeqq became the brave figure who represented (Persia) and the US established diplomatic relations.1 Since the fight for independent Iran, free from the influence of then, their relationship has oscillated between cooperation the West. -
The Regime Change Consensus: Iraq in American Politics, 1990-2003
THE REGIME CHANGE CONSENSUS: IRAQ IN AMERICAN POLITICS, 1990-2003 Joseph Stieb A dissertation submitted to the faculty at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in the Department of History in the College of Arts and Sciences. Chapel Hill 2019 Approved by: Wayne Lee Michael Morgan Benjamin Waterhouse Daniel Bolger Hal Brands ©2019 Joseph David Stieb ALL RIGHTS RESERVED ii ABSTRACT Joseph David Stieb: The Regime Change Consensus: Iraq in American Politics, 1990-2003 (Under the direction of Wayne Lee) This study examines the containment policy that the United States and its allies imposed on Iraq after the 1991 Gulf War and argues for a new understanding of why the United States invaded Iraq in 2003. At the core of this story is a political puzzle: Why did a largely successful policy that mostly stripped Iraq of its unconventional weapons lose support in American politics to the point that the policy itself became less effective? I argue that, within intellectual and policymaking circles, a claim steadily emerged that the only solution to the Iraqi threat was regime change and democratization. While this “regime change consensus” was not part of the original containment policy, a cohort of intellectuals and policymakers assembled political support for the idea that Saddam’s personality and the totalitarian nature of the Baathist regime made Iraq uniquely immune to “management” strategies like containment. The entrenchment of this consensus before 9/11 helps explain why so many politicians, policymakers, and intellectuals rejected containment after 9/11 and embraced regime change and invasion. -
Bremer's Gordian Knot: Transitional Justice and the US Occupation of Iraq Eric Stover Berkeley Law
Berkeley Law Berkeley Law Scholarship Repository Faculty Scholarship 1-1-2005 Bremer's Gordian Knot: Transitional Justice and the US Occupation of Iraq Eric Stover Berkeley Law Hanny Megally Hania Mufti Follow this and additional works at: https://scholarship.law.berkeley.edu/facpubs Part of the Law Commons Recommended Citation Bremer's Gordian Knot: Transitional Justice and the US Occupation of Iraq, 27 Hum. Rts. Q. 830 (2005) This Article is brought to you for free and open access by Berkeley Law Scholarship Repository. It has been accepted for inclusion in Faculty Scholarship by an authorized administrator of Berkeley Law Scholarship Repository. For more information, please contact [email protected]. HUMAN RIGHTS QUARTERLY Bremer's "Gordian Knot": Transitional Justice and the US Occupation of Iraq Eric Stover,* Hanny Megally, ** & Hania Mufti*** ABSTRACT Shortly after the US invasion and occupation of Iraq, L. Paul Bremer III, in his capacity as the chief administrator of the Coalition Provisional Author- ity (CPA), introduced several transitional justice mechanisms that set the *Eric Stover is Director of the Human Rights Center at the University of California, Berkeley, and Adjunct Professor in the School of Public Health. In 1991, Stover led a team of forensic scientists to northern Iraq to investigate war crimes committed by Iraqi troops during the Anfal campaign against the Kurds in the late 1980s. In March and April 2003, he returned to northern Iraq where he and Hania Mufti monitored the compliance with the 1949 Geneva Conventions by all sides to the conflict. He returned to Iraq in February 2004 to assist Mufti in investigating the status of documentary and physical evidence to be used in trials against Saddam Hussein and other members of the Ba'athist Party. -
Joint Chiefs Say Invasion 'Only Way' to Totally Disarm N Korea
Joint Chiefs say invasion 'only way' to totally disarm N Korea Image copyright GETTY IMAGES Image caption US soldiers take part in "Warrior Strike" exercises in South Korea in September A Pentagon assessment has declared the only way to completely destroy all parts of North Korea's nuclear weapons programme is through a ground invasion. Rear Admiral Michael Dumont expressed the opinion on behalf of the Joint Chiefs of Staff in a letter to Congressman Ted Lieu. Mr Dumont said calculating "even the roughest" potential casualty figures would be extremely difficult. He also gave some detail on what the first hours of a war would involve. "The only way to 'locate and destroy - with complete certainty - all components of North Korea's nuclear weapons programs' is through a ground invasion," he wrote in response to Congressman Lieu's questions about a potential conflict. The risks involved included a potential nuclear counter-attack by North Korea while US forces attempted to disable its "deeply buried, underground facilities", he said. "A classified briefing is the best venue for a detailed discussion," he added. The Joint Chiefs of Staff directly advise the president of the United States on military matters. Skip Twitter post by @tedlieu Ted Lieu ✔ @tedlieu Dear @realDonaldTrump: It is morning in Japan. This @washingtonpost article on grim N Korea war options is for you. https://www. washingtonpost.com/world/national -security/securing-north-korean-nuclear-sites-would-require-a- ground-invasion-pentagon-says/2017/11/04/32d5f6fa- c0cf-11e7-97d9-bdab5a0ab381_story.html? utm_term=.e8db56975149 … 3:13 PM - Nov 5, 2017 Securing North Korean nuclear sites would require a ground invasion, Pentagon says A Navy admiral sent a blunt assessment of the dangers of military action to lawmakers. -
2003 Iraq War: Intelligence Or Political Failure?
2003 IRAQ WAR: INTELLIGENCE OR POLITICAL FAILURE? A Thesis submitted to the Faculty of The School of Continuing Studies and of The Graduate School of Arts and Sciences in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Arts in Liberal Studies By Dione Brunson, B.A. Georgetown University Washington, D.C. April, 2011 DISCLAIMER THE VIEWS EXPRESSED IN THIS ACADEMIC RESEARCH PAPER ARE THOSE OF THE AUTHOR AND DO NOT REFLECT THE OFFICIAL POLICIES OR POSITIONS OF THE U.S. GOVERNMENT, DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE, OR THE U.S. INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY. ALL INFORMATION AND SOURCES FOR THIS PAPER WERE DRAWN FROM OPEN SOURCE MATERIALS. ii 2003 IRAQ WAR: INTELLIGENCE OR POLITICAL FAILURE? Dione Brunson, B.A. MALS Mentor: Ralph Nurnberger, Ph.D. ABSTRACT The bold U.S. decision to invade Iraq in 2003 was anchored in intelligence justifications that would later challenge U.S. credibility. Policymakers exhibited unusual bureaucratic and public dependencies on intelligence analysis, so much so that efforts were made to create supporting information. To better understand the amplification of intelligence, the use of data to justify invading Iraq will be explored alongside events leading up to the U.S.-led invasion in 2003. This paper will examine the use of intelligence to invade Iraq as well as broader implications for politicization. It will not examine the justness or ethics of going to war with Iraq but, conclude with the implications of abusing intelligence. iii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS Thank you God for continued wisdom. Thank you Dr. Nurnberger for your patience. iv DEDICATION This work is dedicated to Mom and Dad for their continued support. -
The New Frontier of Activism - a Study of the Conditioning Factors for the Role of Modern Day Activists
The new frontier of activism - a study of the conditioning factors for the role of modern day activists Master’s Thesis Andreas Holbak Espersen | MSocSc Political Communication & Management Søren Walther Bjerregård | MSc International Business & Politics Supervisor Erik Caparros Højbjerg | Departmenent of Management, Politics and Philosophy Submitted 7th November 2016 | STUs: 251.792 Table of Contents Abstract ...................................................................................................................................................................................................... 5 Chapter 0 - Research question and literature review ....................................................................................... 6 0.1 Preface ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 7 0.2 Introduction ................................................................................................................................................................................... 8 0.2.1 Research area .................................................................................................................................................................... 9 0.3 Literature review ...................................................................................................................................................................... 11 0.3.1 Activism in International -
The Politics of Security in Ninewa: Preventing an ISIS Resurgence in Northern Iraq
The Politics of Security in Ninewa: Preventing an ISIS Resurgence in Northern Iraq Julie Ahn—Maeve Campbell—Pete Knoetgen Client: Office of Iraq Affairs, U.S. Department of State Harvard Kennedy School Faculty Advisor: Meghan O’Sullivan Policy Analysis Exercise Seminar Leader: Matthew Bunn May 7, 2018 This Policy Analysis Exercise reflects the views of the authors and should not be viewed as representing the views of the US Government, nor those of Harvard University or any of its faculty. Acknowledgements We would like to express our gratitude to the many people who helped us throughout the development, research, and drafting of this report. Our field work in Iraq would not have been possible without the help of Sherzad Khidhir. His willingness to connect us with in-country stakeholders significantly contributed to the breadth of our interviews. Those interviews were made possible by our fantastic translators, Lezan, Ehsan, and Younis, who ensured that we could capture critical information and the nuance of discussions. We also greatly appreciated the willingness of U.S. State Department officials, the soldiers of Operation Inherent Resolve, and our many other interview participants to provide us with their time and insights. Thanks to their assistance, we were able to gain a better grasp of this immensely complex topic. Throughout our research, we benefitted from consultations with numerous Harvard Kennedy School (HKS) faculty, as well as with individuals from the larger Harvard community. We would especially like to thank Harvard Business School Professor Kristin Fabbe and Razzaq al-Saiedi from the Harvard Humanitarian Initiative who both provided critical support to our project. -
The Iranian Revolution in 1979
Demonstrations of the Iranian People’s Mujahideens (Warriors) during the Iranian Revolution in 1979. Dr. Ali Shariati, an Iranian leftist on the left. Ayatollah Khomeini on the right. The Iranian Revolution Gelvin, ch. 17 & 18 & other sources, notes by Denis Bašić The Pahlavi Dynasty • could hardly be called a “dynasty,” for it had only two rulers - Reza Shah Pahlavi (ruled 1926-1941) and his son Muhammad Reza Shah Pahlavi (ruled 1941-1979). • The son came to power after his father was deposed by the Allies (the Russian and British forces) due to his alliance with the Nazi Germany. • The Allies reestablished the majlis and allowed the organization of trade unions and political parties in order to limit the power of the new shah and to prevent him from following his father’s independence course. • Much to the chagrin of the British and Americans, the most popular party proved to be Tudeh - the communist party with more than 100,000 members. • The second Shah’s power was further eroded when in 1951 Muhammad Mossadegh was elected the prime minister on a platform that advocated nationalizing the oil industry and restricting the shah’s power. • Iranian Prime Minister 1951–3. A prominent parliamentarian. He was twice Muhammad appointed to that office by Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, the Shah of Iran, after a Mossadegh positive vote of inclination by the 1882-1967 parliament. Mossadegh was a nationalist and passionately opposed foreign intervention in Iran. He was also the architect of the nationalization of the Iranian oil industry, which had been under British control through the Anglo- Iranian Oil Company (AIOC), today known as British Petroleum (BP). -
Shooting Down Civilian Aircraft: Is There an International Law Brian E
Journal of Air Law and Commerce Volume 72 | Issue 3 Article 10 2007 Shooting down Civilian Aircraft: Is There an International Law Brian E. Foont Follow this and additional works at: https://scholar.smu.edu/jalc Recommended Citation Brian E. Foont, Shooting down Civilian Aircraft: sI There an International Law, 72 J. Air L. & Com. 695 (2007) https://scholar.smu.edu/jalc/vol72/iss3/10 This Article is brought to you for free and open access by the Law Journals at SMU Scholar. It has been accepted for inclusion in Journal of Air Law and Commerce by an authorized administrator of SMU Scholar. For more information, please visit http://digitalrepository.smu.edu. SHOOTING DOWN CIVILIAN AIRCRAFT: IS THERE AN INTERNATIONAL LAW? BRIAN E. FOONT* TABLE OF CONTENTS PRO LO G U E .............................................. 696 INTRODUCTION ......................................... 697 I. BACKGROUND .................................... 698 A. PRESIDENT TITO'S LETTER ...................... 700 II. SOURCES OF INTERNATIONAL LAW ............ 701 III. POST-WORLD WAR II INCIDENTS ............... 704 A. SOVIET UNION-SHOOT DOWN OF FRENCH COMMERCIAL AIRLINER .......................... 704 B. CHINA-SHOOT DowN OF CATHAY PACIFIC FLIGHT ......................................... 705 C. BULGARIA-SHOOT DowN OF ISRAELI EL AL PASSENGER JET .................................. 705 D. ISRAEL-SHOOT DowN OF LIBYAN AIRLINES PASSENGER JET .................................. 706 E. SOVIET UNION-SHOOT DowN OF KOREAN AIRLINES PASSENGER JET (FLIGHT 902) .......... 707 F. SOVIET UNION-SHOOT DowN OF KOREAN AIRLINES PASSENGER JET (FLIGHT 007) AND ARTICLE 3 BIS TO THE CHICAGO CONVENTION .. 707 G. UNITED STATES-SHOOT DOWN OF IRANIAN AIRLINES PASSENGER JET (FLIGHT 655) .......... 711 * The Law Offices of Brian E. Foont, PLLC; LL.M., Georgetown University Law Center; J.D., American University Washington College of Law; B.A., University of Rochester. -
The Arab-Israel War of 1967 1967 Was the Year of the Six-Day War
The Arab-Israel War of 1967 1967 was the year of the six-day war. Here we bring together its impact on Israel and on the Jewish communities in the Arab countries; United States Middle East policy and United Nations deliberations; effects on the East European Communist bloc, its citizens, and its Jewish communities, and American opinion. For discus- sions of reactions in other parts of the world, see the reviews of individual countries. THE EDITORS Middle East Israel A ALL aspects of Israel's life in 1967 were dominated by the explosion of hostilities on June 5. Two decades of Arab-Israel tension culminated in a massive combined Arab military threat, which was answered by a swift mobilization of Israel's citizen army and, after a period of waiting for international action, by a powerful offensive against the Egyptian, Jor- danian and Syrian forces, leading to the greatest victory in Jewish military annals. During the weeks of danger preceding the six-day war, Jewry throughout the world rallied to Israel's aid: immediate financial support was forthcoming on an unprecedented scale, and thousands of young volunteers offered per- sonal participation in Israel's defense, though they arrived too late to affect the issue (see reviews of individual countries). A new upsurge of national confidence swept away the morale crisis that had accompanied the economic slowdown in 1966. The worldwide Jewish reaction to Israel's danger, and the problems associated with the extension of its military rule over a million more Arabs, led to a reappraisal of atti- tudes towards diaspora Jewry.