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From Beijing to Baghdad: Stability and Decision-Making in Sino- Iraqi Relations, 1958-2012

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From Beijing to Baghdad: Stability and Decision-Making in Sino- Iraqi Relations, 1958-2012 University of Pennsylvania ScholarlyCommons CUREJ - College Undergraduate Research Electronic Journal College of Arts and Sciences 4-1-2013 From Beijing to Baghdad: Stability and Decision-making in Sino- Iraqi Relations, 1958-2012 Scott J. Lee University of Pennsylvania, [email protected] Follow this and additional works at: https://repository.upenn.edu/curej Part of the Political Science Commons Recommended Citation Lee, Scott J., "From Beijing to Baghdad: Stability and Decision-making in Sino-Iraqi Relations, 1958-2012" 01 April 2013. CUREJ: College Undergraduate Research Electronic Journal, University of Pennsylvania, https://repository.upenn.edu/curej/159. This paper is posted at ScholarlyCommons. https://repository.upenn.edu/curej/159 For more information, please contact [email protected]. From Beijing to Baghdad: Stability and Decision-making in Sino-Iraqi Relations, 1958-2012 Abstract As the People’s Republic of China has modernized, it has become increasingly reliant on Middle Eastern oil to fuel its economy. But economics did not always play a primary role in China’s Middle East policy. This thesis seeks to answer the questions: what have been the drivers of the PRC’s foreign policy in the Persian Gulf region – and what historical, political, and economic circumstances caused them to evolve at such a rapid pace? In analyzing Chinese foreign policy in Iraq over three chronological periods – the Cold War Period (1958-1979), the Transition Period (1980-1988), and the Post-Cold War Period (1989-present) – this thesis finds that China has always had an interest in regional stability. However, the definition of stability“ ” has differed during each period, reflecting a general trend away from ideological and political considerations and toward a focus on economic interests. Keywords China, Iraq, Middle East, oil, Persian Gulf, foreign policy, Chinese foreign policy, Iran-Iraq War Disciplines Political Science This article is available at ScholarlyCommons: https://repository.upenn.edu/curej/159 FROM BEIJING TO BAGHDAD STABILITY AND DECISION-MAKING IN SINO-IRAQI RELATIONS, 1958-2012 By SCOTT LEE Dr. Avery Goldstein, Advisor A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirement for the Degree of Bachelor of Arts in Political Science with Distinction University of Pennsylvania Philadelphia, PA April 1, 2013 ABSTRACT As the People’s Republic of China has modernized, it has become increasingly reliant on Middle Eastern oil to fuel its economy. But economics did not always play a primary role in China’s Middle East policy. This thesis seeks to answer the questions: what have been the drivers of the PRC’s foreign policy in the Persian Gulf region – and what historical, political, and economic circumstances caused them to evolve at such a rapid pace? In analyzing Chinese foreign policy in Iraq over three chronological periods – the Cold War Period (1958- 1979), the Transition Period (1980-1988), and the Post-Cold War Period (1989-present) – this thesis finds that China has always had an interest in regional stability. However, the definition of “stability” has differed during each period, reflecting a general trend away from ideological and political considerations and toward a focus on economic interests. From Beijing to Baghdad | 2 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Research is a solitary task, but that does not make it a lonely one. My deepest gratitude goes out to the many who have made this thesis project a social dialogue: First and foremost, I am thankful for the continued support and guidance of my thesis advisor, Dr. Avery Goldstein. His class in Chinese Politics inspired my initial fascination with Chinese foreign policy. I am similarly indebted to Professor Eric Trager, who first encouraged me to undertake this topic of study during my semester in Washington. Thanks also to Dr. Doherty-Sil, whose thesis class was the best kitchen conversation I can imagine. Acknowledgement is also due to the Tuesday/Thursday library thesis group for keeping me focused and on-task (sometimes): Maya Spitzer, Matt Valdespino, and Jonathan Skekloff. I owe a special debt of gratitude to Ryan Kuo, who has challenged me to become a better thinker throughout all my time at Penn. Thanks also to Alice Yu: her late night dumplings and meat pizzas kept me sustained throughout this process. Finally, my deepest thanks to my parents for their never-ending love and support. Lee | 3 TABLE OF CONTENTS I. INTRODUCTION ..................................................................................................................... 5 Prologue ...................................................................................................................................... 5 Background: Two Scholars, Two Schools .................................................................................. 8 Argument .................................................................................................................................. 14 II. THE COLD WAR PERIOD (1958-1979) ............................................................................ 16 Overview: China’s Foreign Policy Trends ............................................................................... 16 The Sino-Iraqi Relationship ...................................................................................................... 21 A New Beginning (1958-1960).............................................................................................. 21 Challenges to the Sino-Iraqi Relationship (1960-1975) ....................................................... 26 Renewed Relationship (1975-1979) ...................................................................................... 33 Conclusion ................................................................................................................................ 35 III. THE TRANSITION PERIOD (1980-1988)........................................................................ 36 Overview: China’s Foreign Policy Trends ............................................................................... 36 The Iran-Iraq War (1980-1988) ................................................................................................ 39 Background ........................................................................................................................... 39 Motivations and Origin of the Arms Trade ........................................................................... 43 Arms Sales to Iraq and Iran .................................................................................................. 47 Conclusion ................................................................................................................................ 57 IV. THE POST-COLD WAR PERIOD (1989-PRESENT)..................................................... 59 Overview: China’s Foreign Policy Trends ............................................................................... 59 The First Iraq War (1990-1991) ................................................................................................ 62 Background: A Win-Win Opportunity .................................................................................. 62 China and the United Nations............................................................................................... 65 Evaluation: China and the First Iraq War ........................................................................... 68 Chinese Energy Security ........................................................................................................... 71 China’s Growing Energy Needs ........................................................................................... 71 Chinese Oil Security and Iraq............................................................................................... 76 The Second Iraq War (2003-2012) ........................................................................................... 78 Background: Caught Between Iraq and a Hard Place ......................................................... 78 Beijing’s Balancing Act ........................................................................................................ 80 Evaluation: China and the Second Iraq War ........................................................................ 83 Conclusion ................................................................................................................................ 85 V. FINAL CONCLUSION ......................................................................................................... 86 VI. APPENDICES....................................................................................................................... 89 VII. BIBLIOGRAPHY ............................................................................................................... 92 From Beijing to Baghdad | 4 I. INTRODUCTION PROLOGUE Even though China’s Middle East presence has been confined to the past sixty years, the arc of China’s regional foreign policy has witnessed a complete about-face. During the 1960s, China attempted to export its revolutionary ideology abroad, supporting revolutionary insurrections in Algeria, Palestine, Oman, and Yemen.1 By the 2000s, however, China had established a resolute posture of noninterference and registered its disapproval of Western efforts to enforce regime change in the Middle East. What, then, have been the drivers of the PRC’s foreign policy in the Middle East – and more importantly, what historical, political,
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