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Hybrid Threats in the 21St Century

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Hybrid Threats in the 21St Century Band 17 / 2016 Band 17 / 2016 Die Vernetzung von Gesellschaften wird durch technische Errungenschaften immer komplexer. Somit erweitern Century sich auch Einflussfaktoren auf die Sicherheit von Gesell- st schaftssystemen. Networked Insecurity – Spricht man in diesem Zusammenhang in sicherheits- politischen Fachkreisen von hybrider Kampfführung, ge- hen die Autoren in diesem Buch einen Schritt weiter und Hybrid Threats beschäftigen sich mit Optionen der Machtprojektion, die st über Kampfhandlungen hinausgehen. Dabei sehen sie in the 21 Century hybride Bedrohungen als sicherheitspolitische Herausfor- derung der Zukunft. Beispiele dazu untermauern den im Buch vorangestellten theoretischen Teil. Mögliche Hand- lungsoptionen runden diese Publikation ab. Networked Insecurity – Hybrid Threats in the 21 Threats – Hybrid Insecurity Networked ISBN: 978-3-903121-01-0 Anton Dengg and Michael Schurian (Eds.) 17/16 Schriftenreihe der Dengg, Schurian (Eds.) Dengg, Landesverteidigungsakademie Schriftenreihe der Landesverteidigungsakademie Anton Dengg, Michael Schurian (Eds.) Networked Insecurity – Hybrid Threats in the 21st Century 17/2016 Vienna, June 2016 Imprint: Copyright, Production, Publisher: Republic of Austria / Federal Ministry of Defence and Sports Rossauer Lände 1 1090 Vienna, Austria Edited by: National Defence Academy Institute for Peace Support and Conflict Management Stiftgasse 2a 1070 Vienna, Austria Schriftenreihe der Landesverteidigungsakademie Copyright © Republic of Austria / Federal Ministry of Defence and Sports All rights reserved June 2016 ISBN 978-3-903121-01-0 Printing: HDruckZ-ASt Stift 16-xxxx Stiftgasse 2a 1070 Wien Translation by Georgette Hauzenberger and Peter Cox, for the Austrian Armed Forces Language Institute 3 Special thanks are due to all those who contributed to the creation of this publication. 5 “To fight and conquer in all our battles is not supreme excellence; rather, supreme excellence consists in breaking the enemy's resistance without fighting.” Sun Tsu 7 Table of Contents Foreword .............................................................................................................. 11 Abstract ................................................................................................................. 13 1. Introduction and Theory ........................................................................... 15 1.1 Reflections on the Term “Strategic Threat” Thomas Pankratz ...................................................................................... 17 1.2 On the Concept of Hybrid Threats Anton Dengg, Michael N. Schurian ........................................................... 25 1.3 Hybrid Threat Potential in the Light of Networking and Systemic Thinking Herbert Saurugg ......................................................................................... 81 2 Description of the analysed security Strategies in the Reference States .......................................................................................................... 115 2.1 Slovakia Rastislav Báchora ................................................................................. 117 2.2 Sweden Michael Fredholm ................................................................................ 143 3 Supplementary Analysis in the Context of Hybrid Threats ............... 153 3.1 Hybrid threats: reflecting on deductions from EU strategic documents Gerald Brettner-Messler ............................................................................ 153 3.2 State Support of Terrorist Organisations as a Potential Means of Hybrid Threat Projection Ramy Youssef ........................................................................................... 175 3.3 Cybersecurity – Raising Awareness in Society Alfred Gulder .......................................................................................... 193 3.4 Implications of Hybrid Threats in International Law Christoph R. Cede, Reinmar Nindler and Paul Schliefsteiner .................... 215 9 4 Summary and Conclusions Anton Dengg .................................................................................................217 4.1 Summary ................................................................................................217 4.2 Conclusions ...........................................................................................226 5 Examples....................................................................................................237 5.1 Law Firms as an Example of Hybrid Threat Christoph R. Cede ....................................................................................237 5.2 Projection of Soft Power via Social Networks in Hybrid Conflicts Martin Staudinger ....................................................................................253 5.3 Power Projection by Pipeline: Russia, Sweden, and the Hybrid Threat from the Nord Stream Project, 2005-2009 Michael Fredholm .....................................................................................263 5.4 The Hybrid Threat Capability of the Afghan Taliban Movement, 2001-2014 Michael Fredholm .....................................................................................333 6 Index ...........................................................................................................369 6.1 Index of Abbreviations........................................................................369 6.2 Index of Illustrations ...........................................................................377 6.3 Index of Tables .....................................................................................379 6.4 Author Biographies ..............................................................................381 10 Foreword The military, but ultimately non-violent taking of the Crimean peninsula by Russian special forces has demonstrated a novel threat phenomenon that was indeed theoretically conceivable in this form and yet seemed unrealisa- ble politically. Here it is less about the individual components of “Opera- tion Crimea” and more about their specific composition in defiance of the stipulations of international law and particular reliance on both old and new mass media. The resulting propaganda war, which continues to this day, makes it difficult for those involved and for observers to form a clear overview of what is actually going on or indeed of the causes and effects of events. Many experts see Russia’s behaviour towards the Ukraine as confirming the hypothesis of hybrid warfare, which extends beyond direct and indirect military action also to include many other measures (including CyberWar), with a view to having an effect on the opponent and forcing his hand. Nor does this seem to be a new idea, given that the Chinese military theoretician Sun Tsu rated “victory without fighting” as the best strategy. Yet all of this falls short of covering the full bandwidth of risks, dangers and threats completely in today’s world with the means and possibilities available. To a certain extent, the associated profiles now manifesting themselves amount to a new form of “enclosure” of war, because both the aggressor and his target, as well as the actual objectives, can remain in the dark. Humanitarian international law and other international regulations may have no influence or be ignored, whilst the true extent of an “attack with modern means” on a state and its ability to function may only become recognisable at a very late stage and abruptly. Anton Dengg and the co-authors of this volume have dealt intensively with the topic of hybrid power projection in the con- text of a project. In this they progress beyond the narrow and indeed mili- tarily dominated model of hybrid warfare to lay out a concept that endeav- ours to cover the full spectrum of threats. In doing this, they also accom- plish pioneering work in the area of terminology, in that they define signifi- cant, relevant phenomena and point out that not every hacker attack con- stitutes a threat to a state, but rather that a strategic threshold, which must be defined by every state, has to be exceeded. 11 It is evident from the contributions and country studies that a certain awareness of the problems arising from hybrid threats does indeed exist, and yet that perceptions and methods of resolution at a national level ap- parently tend to be diffuse or one-dimensional. The intention of the work presented here is therefore to make a contribution towards creating aware- ness, defining the problem and anticipating potential protective and coun- termeasures at a strategic level. Potentially particularly helpful in this regard is the graphic developed by Anton Dengg and Michael Schurian, which illustrates the spectra of threat potential. It should indeed also be seen as a prompt for forward-looking reflection. Walter Feichtinger Director, IFK 12 Abstract Societies grow ever more connected in practically all spheres of life; not least due to the technological achievements. Alongside positive effects, negative ones also appear – systems become more prone to failure. Thus the image of threats also changes and is influenced by a growing number of factors. In international publications1 different governmental options of choice in contemporary combat operations are dealt with. The notion of Hybrid Warfare has been coined. This book takes a much broader approach and describes potentially appli- cable possibilities of a state to exert power beyond mere combat opera- tions. As an example, the current Ukraine conflict
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