Estonia Political Briefing: a Spectre of a New Governmental Coalition? E-MAP Foundation MTÜ

ISSN: 2560-1601

Vol. 33, No. 1 (EE)

October 2020

Estonia political briefing: A spectre of a new governmental coalition? E-MAP Foundation MTÜ

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+36 1 5858 690 Kiadó: Kína-KKE Intézet Nonprofit Kft. [email protected] Szerkesztésért felelős személy: Chen Xin

Kiadásért felelős személy: Huang Ping china-cee.eu 2017/01

A spectre of a new governmental coalition?

“A spectre is haunting”1… Estonia, and it looks like it is the spectre of a new governmental coalition in the making. An early October report on the most recent poll (it was completed by Norstat on behalf of Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut MTÜ) showed the oppositional Reform Party’s popular support on the level of 33.2 per cent, while the current Prime Minister’s Centre Party was indicated as enjoying support of 22.1 per cent of the electorate2. This was, however, not the main take out of the pollster’s data collection – the daunting news for the Government was represented by the fact that “the two opposition parties received 43 per cent support and the three coalition parties – 42.4 per cent”, and it was for the first time when “the coalition was supported by fewer respondents than the opposition since before the coronavirus pandemic began”3. It did not take long until some new indicators of the country’s intra-political ‘excitement’ would be clearly detected – one of the members of the current governmental coalition (Pro Patria) called its council for a meeting.

Interestingly enough, Pro Patria (described as “rightist and conservative”4 by the Riigikogu’s official portal), while being the smallest coalitional partner out of the three, could be speculatively considered the most influential in the Government. Its members hold the ministerial portfolios of Foreign Affairs, Justice, Defence, Culture, and Population Affairs. Moreover, since 1990, the party has led the Estonian Government for three times, making a range of crucial calls on the country’s ultimately successful development in many directions. Those days are history, but the Pro Patria’s political ‘weight’ in Estonia, despite the apparent lack of big numbers in the Riigikogu, can still provide for its partnership in any coalition they may choose to become a part of and at any given moment. During the aforementioned council’s meeting, the Pro Patria’s leadership recognised the obvious strategic necessity for the party to be more visible among the younger generation via approving the membership of a couple of newly established political associations, Parempoolsed (Right-wingers) and Perede Ühendus (the Association of Families)5. In addition, Helir-Valdor Seeder, the leader of Pro Patria and

1 The initial line from Manifest der Kommunistischen Partei (K. Marx and F. Engels, 1848). 2 ‘Ratings: Opposition support exceeds coalition for first time since February’ in ERR, 7 October 2020. Available from [https://news.err.ee/1143888/ratings-opposition-support-exceeds-coalition-for-first-time-since-february]. 3 ‘Ratings: Opposition support exceeds coalition for first time since February’. 4 ‘Isamaa Faction’ in Riigikogu. Available from [https://www.riigikogu.ee/en/parliament-of- estonia/factions/isamaa-faction/]. 5 ‘Gallery: Isamaa holds council meeting’ in ERR, 10 October 2020. Available from [https://news.err.ee/1145439/gallery-isamaa-holds-council-meeting].

1 the Riigikogu’s First Deputy Speaker, noted that his party “fulfils its election promises, solves Estonia’s biggest problems and balances its partners”, while also contributing “to national defence [and] support[ing] entrepreneurship and research and development”6. Considering the circumstances, such a statement is far more important than it could have been analytically treated otherwise – arguably, it is a political signal in regards of Pro Patria and its objectively natural ability to balance up not only the country’s policies on different partnerships, but also relationships in a governmental coalition, be it in the past, at present, and in the future. The current coalition will be over when Pro Patria decides to convert this signal into a proper hint to be addressed to the parliamentary opposition. The pre-Christmas time will show whether or not it is going to be the case.

In the meantime, outside of the Riigikogu, there is a party that is planning to become ‘parliamentary’ from March 2023. Initially, as it has been extensively discussed in the previous briefings, the plan for that party was to enter the Riigikogu in 2019, but it did not work out. The talk is, obviously, about Eesti 200, a non-parliamentary Estonian political party that has just re- elected its leader, Kristina Kallas, to focus on the next steps to be made in the nearest future. Expressing her vision on the Eesti 200’s prospects, Kristina Kallas was very clear, declaring that the party “will form the next government” and adding that “she sees resentment towards the current political culture and stagnation in other parties as well”7. Her next statement is even more intriguing:

We want change... And we have the courage to make it happen. We will have this opportunity soon. […] Estonia 200 will form the next government and it will be a strong, professional team working for the new generation. Today we elected a board consisting exclusively of professionals in their field and young people who will bring change. We are ready to form a government today.8

Such a claim is nothing short from being considered a strong message on the Eesti 200’s readiness to become and then remain a parliamentary party. The expression on the party’s desire “to form a government today” is a bit misleading though, because a procedurally ridged snap

6 Helir-Valdor Seeder as cited in ‘Gallery: Isamaa holds council meeting’. 7 Kristina Kallas as cited in ‘Estonia 200 elects new board, Kristina Kallas continues as chairman’, ERR, 10 October 2020. Available from [https://news.err.ee/1145492/estonia-200-elects-new-board-kristina-kallas- continues-as-chairman]. 8 Kristina Kallas as cited in ‘Estonia 200 elects new board, Kristina Kallas continues as chairman’.

2 election will be required for this to happen. However, it is still one of those numerous indicators that the current governmental coalition’s political ‘health’ is very poor. No doubts that such sentiments were immediately detected by Estonian media, and, in a few days after her re- election as the Eesti 200’s leader, Kristina Kallas was kindly asked to clarify her position. During the ERR’s Otse uudistemajast webcast, arguably, there were plenty of intra-Estonian meanings to be found in her following statement:

We will be part of the coalition that will form the government. […] We would love to form our own government and run the Government Office in an ideal world. But we do not have enough political experience. We need experience ruling and we are ready to experience it. […] The government today tells us that ruling with EKRE is practically impossible. They are only concentrating on staying in power and enjoying power. […] Give me a single example of the interests of their voters that EKRE have protected?9

Having read/listened to that, why not to make an attempt to speculatively ‘translate’ the latter expression from the language of politics into an ordinary vernacular? Given the relatively high degree of cohesion existing within Estonian internal political life (in other words, it is when everybody known everybody), it could be suggested that Kristina Kallas decided to openly indicate a serious issue – Estonian politics started suffering from extreme exhaustion and fatigue as a result of the EKRE-associated scandals. From March-April 2019, objectively, the EKRE has managed to generate a rather high number of multi-dimensional actions, which caused general public as well as international outrage. Externally, Estonia as a country started making those international headlines, which are usually interlinked with reputation risks. Internally, this important member of the current governmental coalition (it holds the ministerial portfolios of Foreign Trade and Information Technology, Finance, Rural Affairs, Environment, and the Interior), made the Prime Minister’s political life increasingly uncomfortable, pushing Jüri Rata on the line of being apologetic towards different people, societal groups, and even countries. Something has to happen, and a spectre of this ‘something’ is haunting Estonian politics. Most probably, having unmistakably felt that, the EKRE decided to get the situation escalated to the highest point in order to test the country’s political system. Mart Helme, the Estonian Minister of the Interior, the founding ‘father’ of EKRE, and the father of the party’s

9 Kristina Kallas as cited in ‘Kristina Kallas: We are ready to be part of the government’, ERR, 14 October 2020. Available from [https://news.err.ee/1146884/kristina-kallas-we-are-ready-to-be-part-of-the-government].

3 leader Martin Helme, while giving an interview to Deutsche Welle (in Russian)10, made an astonishing number of controversial statements (on Russia, far-right parties, the EU, Ukrainians, Estonian society and politics, others). One of the segments from his interview – on a perspective to arrange a referendum to exclude gay people from marriage – caused what is likely to be wrapped up as the end of Mart Helme’s involvement in the current Estonian Government. The following excerpt from the interview ‘tells’ a more compelling story:

Helme: [The referendum] is important for all people, because without marriage, without women and men having children, there is no future (...) We want the state to be preserved, and it cannot be preserved without children and without morality.

DW: What, will gay people attack and flood the Estonian nation?

Helme: Let them run to Sweden. Everyone there treats them more politely.

DW: And you treat them rudely?

Helme: I really am not friendly to them.

DW: Today this is called homophobia.

Helme: It is not homophobia. I would say that those people who call our referendum unnecessary are heterophobes. They are getting into the bedrooms of heterosexuals. They do it, not us. If they can do their homo propaganda, we can do other propaganda as well.11

Kersti Kaljulaid, the Estonian President, reacted immediately, noting that “[a] minister with such views is not suitable for the [G]overnment of the Republic of Estonia”12. The second part of October represents the time-frame when Jüri Ratas’ embattled second cabinet, should it

10 Константин Эггерт, ‘Глава МВД Эстонии: Санкции не сделают Россию демократической страной’ in Deutsche Welle, 15 October 2020. Available from [https://www.dw.com/ru/helme-sankcii-ne-sdelajut-rossiju- demokraticheskoj-stranoj/a- 55277490?fbclid=IwAR3ARrjtfPjCI0ehXzp1vBynN5txYIGGU44QRXExRnhyhiPFWy5e9sBRG0o]. 11 ‘Estonian president slams interior minister over homophobic interview’ in Deutsche Welle, 17 October 2020. Available from [https://www.dw.com/en/estonian-president-slams-interior-minister-over-homophobic- interview/a-55311378]. 12 Kersti Kaljulaid in Facebook, 17 October 2020. Available from [https://www.facebook.com/KerstiKaljulaid/posts/2750908795181902].

4 survive such a shake-up at all, can be featured by a new holder of the Interior’s ministerial portfolio.