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GAW Report No. 181 GAW Report No. 181 Joint Report of COST Action 728 and GURME GURME and Overview of Tools and Methods for 728 Meteorological and Air Pollution Mesoscale Action Model Evaluation and User Training COST of Report For more information, please contact: World Meteorological Organization Research Department Atmospheric Research and Environment Branch 7 bis, avenue de la Paix – P.O. Box 2300 – CH 1211 Geneva 2 – Switzerland Tel.: +41 (0) 22 730 81 11 – Fax: +41 (0) 22 730 81 81 E-mail: [email protected] – Website: http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/arep/index_en.html Joint Report 181 GAW No. WMO/TD - No. 1457 © World Meteorological Organization, 2008 © COST Office, 2008, ISBN 978-1-905313-59-4 The right of publication in print, electronic and any other form and in any language is reserved by WMO. Short extracts from WMO publications may be reproduced without authorization provided that the complete source is clearly indicated. Editorial correspondence and requests to publish, reproduce or translate this publication (articles) in part or in whole should be addressed to: Chairperson, Publications Board World Meteorological Organization (WMO) 7 bis avenue de la Paix Tel.: +41 22 730 8403 P.O. Box No. 2300 Fax.: +41 22 730 8040 CH-1211 Geneva 2, Switzerland E-mail: [email protected] NOTE The designations employed in WMO publications and the presentation of material in this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Secretariat of WMO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. Opinions expressed in WMO publications are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of WMO. The mention of specific companies or products does not imply that they are endorsed or recommended by WMO in preference to others of a similar nature which are not mentioned or advertised. This document (or report) is not an official publication of WMO and has not been subjected to its standard editorial procedures. The views expressed herein do not necessarily have the endorsement of the Organization. European COoperation in Science and Technology (COST) COST, which is supported by the EU RTD Framework Programme, is the oldest and widest European intergovernmental network for cooperation in research. Established by the Ministerial Conference in November 1971, COST is presently used by the scientific communities of 35 European countries to cooperate in common research projects supported by national funds. The funds provided by COST support the COST cooperation networks (COST Actions) through which, with EUR 30 million per year, more than 30,000 European scientists are involved in research having a total value which exceeds EUR 2 billion per year. This is the financial worth of the European added value which COST achieves. A “bottom up approach” (the initiative of launching a COST Action comes from the European scientists themselves), “_ la carte participation” (only countries interested in the Action participate), “equality of access” (participation is open also to the scientific communities of countries not belonging to the European Union) and “flexible structure” (easy implementation and light management of the research initiatives) are the main characteristics of COST. As precursor of advanced multidisciplinary research, COST has a very important role for the realisation of the European Research Area (ERA) anticipating and complementing the activities of the Framework Programmes, constituting a “bridge” towards the scientific communities of emerging countries, increasing the mobility of researchers across Europe and fostering the establishment of “Networks of Excellence” in many key scientific domains such as: Biomedicine and Molecular Biosciences; Food and Agriculture; Forests, their Products and Services; Materials, Physical and Nanosciences; Chemistry and Molecular Sciences and Technologies; Earth System Science and Environmental Management; Information and Communication Technologies; Transport and Urban Development and Individuals, Societies, Cultures and Health. It covers basic and more applied research and also addresses issues of pre-normative nature or of societal importance. For further information visit: www.cost.esf.org ESF logo - ESF provides the COST Office through an EC contract EU logo - COST is supported by the EU RTD Framework Programme ESF provides the COST Office COST is supported by the EU through an EC contract RTD Framework programme Joint Report of COST Action 728 (Enhancing Mesoscale Meteorological Modelling Capabilities for Air Pollution and Dispersion Applications) and GURME (GAW Urban Research Meteorology and Environment Project) OVERVIEW OF TOOLS AND METHODS FOR METEOROLOGICAL AND AIR POLLUTION MESOSCALE MODEL EVALUATION AND USER TRAINING Editors: K. Heinke Schlünzen (Meteorological Inst., ZMAW, University of Hamburg, Germany), Ranjeet S Sokhi, University of Hertfordshire, UK Contributors: Elissavet Bossioli, Peter Builtjes, Bruce Denby, Marco Deserti, John Douros, Barbara Fay, Gertie Geertsema, Marko Kaasik, Kristina Labancz, Volker Matthias, Ana Isabel Miranda, Nicolas Moussiopoulos, Viel Ødegaard, Denise Pernigotti, Christer Persson, Roberto San Jose, K. Heinke Schlünzen, Ranjeet Sokhi, Joanna Struzewska, Alessio D'Allura, Maria Athanassiadou, A. Arvanitis, Alexander Baklanov, Sylvia Bohnenstengel, J Elissavet Bossioli, Giovanni Bonafè, Carlos Borrego, Anabela Carvalho, Ulrich Damrath, Edouard Debry, Jaime Diéguez, Sandro Finardi, Bernard Fisher, Stefano Galmarini, Hubert Glaab, Steen C. Hoe, Nutthida Kitwiroon, Liisa Jalkanen, P. Louka, Alexander Mahura, Helena Martins, D R Middleton, Millán Millán, Alexandra Monteiro, Lina Neunhäuserer, Jose Luis Palau, Ulrike Pechinger, Gorka Perez-Landa, Martin Piringer, Denise Pernigotti, Víctor Prior, Maria Tombrou, C. Simonidis, Leiv Håvard Slørdal, Ariel Stein, Jens Havskov Sørensen, Y. Yu Electronic version: November 2008 Website: www.cost728.org WMO/TD-No. 1457 November 2008 Table of Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ........................................................................................................................................i 1. INTRODUCTION..................................................................................................................................... 1 2. COST728 MESOSCALE MODEL INVENTORY........................................................................................ 3 3. SUMMARY OF MESOSCALE MODEL APPLICATIONS .......................................................................... 7 4. DETERMINATION OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY..................................................................................... 12 4.1 Monte Carlo Meteorological and Air Quality Data Uncertainty Analysis ...................................................................12 4.2 Sensitivity Analysis....................................................................................................................................................16 4.2.1 Meteorological and Photochemical Ensemble Simulations............................................................................16 4.2.2 Input Parameters Sensitivity Analysis (Topography, Land-use).....................................................................16 4.2.3 Adjoint Modelling Approach............................................................................................................................17 4.2.4 Sensitivity of Model Results to Nesting ..........................................................................................................18 4.2.5 Sensitivity of UAP Forecasts to Meteorological Input and Resolution............................................................18 5. MODEL QUALITY INDICATORS........................................................................................................... 21 5.1 Quality Indicators for Evaluating Meteorological Parameters ...................................................................................21 5.1.1 Observation Availability ..................................................................................................................................21 5.1.2 Observation Error ...........................................................................................................................................21 5.1.3 Recommended Quality Indicators for Different Meteorological Parameters...................................................22 5.2 Quality Indicators for Air Quality Model Evaluation...................................................................................................24 5.2.1 Statistical Parameters for Concentrations ......................................................................................................24 5.2.2 EPA Quality Indicators....................................................................................................................................25 5.2.3 EU Directives Modelling Quality Objectives ...................................................................................................25 5.2.4 Application Examples .....................................................................................................................................26 6. VALIDATION DATASETS ..................................................................................................................... 29 6.1 Model Validation Datasets and Selection Criteria.....................................................................................................29
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