POST SEMINAR REPORT Seminar Titled “Afghanistan Endgame: Quest for Peace and Stability” National Defence University Islamabad (27 th June 2012) Institute for Strategic Studies; Research and Analysis (ISSRA) National Defence University Islamabad 1 Seminar Titled “Afghanistan Endgame: Quest for Peace and Stability” National Defence University Islamabad th (27 June 2012) Sponsor Ambassador Arif Kamal Director Global Studies Compilation is based on minutes recorded by a team of Researchers at ISSRA; RA Ms Afifa Kiran RA Ms Beenish Sultan RA Mr. Muhammad Shabbir RA Mr. Abdul Rauf RA Ms Mahroona Syed RA Ms Asma Sana RA Mr Usman Asghar 2 Seminar Titled “Afghanistan Endgame: Quest for Peace and Stability” (27 th June 2012) POST SEMINAR REPORT CONTENTS • An overview of the seminar: Executive Summary P 1-7 - Thematic Focus - Participation and Profile - Summary Record of Proceedings - Findings - Recommendations • Theme P 8 • Record of Proceedings: P 10-31 - Inauguration - Thematic Session – One Passage Through Transition - Thematic Session – Two Perspectives on Post-2014 Scenarios • Annexes P I-VIII - Programme - Profiles - Participants - Keynote Address by President NDU 3 An Overview of the Seminar Post-Seminar Report Seminar Titled “Afghanistan Endgame: Quest for Peace and Stability” A day-long seminar titled: ‘Afghanistan Endgame: Quest for Peace and Stability’ was held at NDU on 27 th June’ 2012. The seminar was geared to brain-storming on the contemporary Afghan scenario amidst projected U.S. withdrawals and reflecting on possible post-2014 scenarios. In essence, it was an exercise to identify the emerging challenges and therefore, policy-relevant options for Pakistan. An impetus to hold the seminar had come from JSHQ. Discussion on the overarching theme was indeed bi-focal in terms of treatment of the emerging situation in Afghanistan and its fallout. It was carried out in two thematic sessions: each having 3/2 speakers, an interactive discussion amongst the participants, and a wrap up by the session chair. The format of seminar and focal points of presentations are outlined below: Session-1: Session-2: Passage Through Transition Perspectives on Post-2014 Scenarios Chair: Amb Najmmuddin Shaikh Chair: Dr. Riffat Hussain Afghanistan in the Course of Transition: Costs and Risks Economic and Security Outlook of Afghanistan Speaker: Amb Rustam Shah Mohmand Beyond 2014: Pressures and Options for ‘Responsible End to the War’: Wither Pakistan Reconciliation Process? Speaker : Amb Najmmuddin Shaikh Speaker: Mr. Rahimullah Yousafzai Role of International and Regional “Neutral Afghanistan”: Reflections on the Post Players in the Transition: Challenges Drawdown Scenario and Opportunities for Pakistan Speaker : Amb Inam ul Haque Speaker: Dr. Rasul Bakhsh Rais 1 THEMATIC FOCUS The deliberative exercise was built on premise that ‘transition’ in Afghanistan carries the potential of unfolding different scenarios and outcomes. Thus, the concept of an ‘endgame’ is fixated to uncertainty. The year 2014 may signify a new chapter in the continuing conflict rather than mark a milestone in an ‘irreversible transition’ or an ‘endgame’. The pronounced U.S. objectives in Afghanistan are related to various forms and phases of transition, power sharing within the ambit of political dispensation in Kabul and ‘responsible end to war’. However parameters of this vision and its implementability remain blurred. There are divergent views regarding the concept of reconciliation amongst various stake-holders in the Afghan situation. The linkage between a ’responsible drawdown’ and ‘safe power sharing mechanism’ is indeed very weak. If key stakeholders are not taken on board, the security apparatus of Afghanistan is likely to collapse from within. The resistance which is in control of more than half of the country, may pose grave security threat to the entire process of transition and to the neighborhood, more specifically Pakistan. PARTICIPATION AND PROFILE The seminar served as a convergence point for policy-relevant experts and academia, corresponding to the critical importance of the overarching theme. The professional standing of session chairs (two) and presenters (five) in the two thematic sessions is quite remarkable (Profiles at Anx B). Concurrently, the audience represented a broad spectrum of policy relevant circles, think tanks, academia, NDU faculty and students (Attendance Roll at Anx C). The interaction amongst presenters and the audience provided a stimulant for discussion on the occasion. 2 A SUMMARY RECORD OF PROCEEDINGS At the inaugural, President NDU spoke of the critical importance of the subject in terms of shared quest for peace and stability in Afghanistan, as the arena moves towards the beginning of a ‘new game’. In this context, he underlined the need for a focused and result-oriented intellectual discourse which may unfold policy options for Pakistan. While flagging significance of the overarching theme, President NDU outlined the following aspects: (a) foreign interference only offers a recipe for disorder, (b) peace or conflict in Afghanistan both carry an inevitable impact on the neighborhood and (c) a peaceful and stable Afghanistan, friendly to all , holds the promise of progress in a trans- regional setting. In addition, he wished that this reunion of experts and academia, would provide a good forum to check on the veracity of the aforementioned assumptions. Session- One The first session flagged the critical importance of projected U.S. drawdowns for Afghanistan and the neighborhood. Transition from US control, it was opined, entailed a four-fold scenario: Firstly, that it should be considered only ‘fractional’ as the full control of security apparatus will not be transferred to Afghan security forces, Secondly, the fighting would not diminish in intensity as the drawdown approaches. Thirdly, the rate of attrition, now 20 per cent that will rise dramatically as the coalition forces withdraw. And fourthly, there are two ground realities that are likely to impact on the scenario: The resistance and Afghan National Army that also serves as an umbrella for warlords. Beyond this, lack of clarity on the ultimate U.S. objectives adds to complexity of the situation, and thus calls for treatment in a regional framework. Despite claimed readiness of achieving a political solution to the Afghan issue by all sides, there are still no serious efforts to pursue a viable reconciliation process. Thus, the way out of a 3 messy and an unwinnable war in Afghanistan appears to be more difficult than the hasty decision to attack the country nearly ten years back. Session- Two The second session highlighted the outlook of post- 2014 which appears desolate. This is so because firstly, there is an expected economic downturn with foreign aid drying up and no infrastructure to support the economy of Afghanistan. Secondly, the security situation appears to remain burdened even if progress is made towards reconciliation. Thirdly, the political dispensation in Afghanistan after 2014 in the context of US- Afghan partnership agreement of May 2012 appears vague. The ethnic and tribal rivalries, war lords, drug trafficking and economic development of the country in the wake of shrinking resources in the post 2014 era, the role and interests of regional players all lead to uncertainties in achieving peace and stability in Afghanistan 4 FINDINGS Key findings unfolded in the deliberative exercise are itemized below: • The notion of an ‘endgame’ in Afghanistan, in fact, corresponds with the start of a ‘new game’. Given the transforming nature of conflict, specter of three alternate scenarios is being unfolded in that setting: Taliban take over, a virtual division between north-west and south-east or a protracted conflict. • The US intentions in Afghanistan in the wake of drawdowns do not transmit a uniform image. Therefore, different views emerge, ranging from the U.S. departure from the scene to a withdrawal in tandem with a focused permanent presence to oversee a larger region. • Reconciliation amongst warring Afghan factions and power sharing amongst them remain a remote possibility. The chances of a political solution involving the Taliban through peace talks have been further reduced after the strategic partnership agreement between Afghan Government and the US. Implementability of the process of safe withdrawals and a stable political dispensation in Kabul, in the absence of a credible reconciliation process, remains questionable • The security situation in Afghanistan will remain fraught even if progress is made towards reconciliation. There are warlords and drug traffickers and power brokers who thrive on Afghan instability and will thwart efforts at reconciliation or use their influence to slow the process down. The tempo of fighting which had decreased is now on the rise. • The outlook for post 2014 appears bleak. The economic downturn that will come with the reduction of aid and the retrenchment of local employees by various foreign aid organizations and NGOs is likely to have a profound impact on the 5 overall scenario. Unemployment might rise to 40%. Pakistan should be prepared to receive more migrants, with or without the success of reconciliation. • Pakistan’s core interests viz-a-viz Afghanistan relate to a stable, peaceful Afghanistan- friendly to all. This will be best served if the Pushtoons (more than half of the population) find an equitable representation in the political dispensation, reconciliation process is placed on a firm footing,