Pakistan – Consequences of Deteriorating Security in Afghanistan EDITED BY KristiNA ZEttERLUND FOI, Swedish Defence Research Agency, is a mainly assignment-funded agency under the Ministry of Defence. The core activities are research, method and technology development, as well as studies conducted in the interests of Swedish defence and the safety and security of society. The organisation employs approximately 1000 personnel of whom about 800 are scientists. This makes FOI Sweden’s largest research institute. FOI gives its customers access to leading-edge expertise in a large number of fields such as security policy studies, defence and security related analyses, the assessment of various types of threat, systems for control and management of crises, protection against and management of hazardous substances, IT security and the potential offered by new sensors. FOI Swedish Defence Research Agency Phone: +46 8 55 50 30 00 www.foi.se FOI-R--2683--SE User report Defence Analysis Defence Analysis Fax: +46 8 55 50 31 00 ISSN 1650-1942 January 2009 SE-164 90 Stockholm Edited by Kristina Zetterlund Pakistan – Consequences of Deteriorating Security in Afghanistan Cover image: Border of Pakistan and Afghanistan. Picture taken in the spring of 2007 in Paktia Province, Afghanistan, looking into Pakistan. Photographer: Staff Sergeant Wells, United States Army. FOI-R--2683--SE Title Pakistan – Consequences of Deteriorating Security in Afghanistan Rapportnr/Report no FOI-R--2683--SE Rapporttyp Användarrapport Report Type User report Månad/Month Januari/January Utgivningsår/Year 2009 Antal sidor/Pages 164 p ISSN ISSN 1650-1942 Kund/Customer Försvarsdepartementet Forskningsområde 1. Analys av säkerhet och sårbarhet Programme area 1. Security, safety and vulnerability analysis Delområde 11 Forskning för regeringens behov Subcategory 11 Policy Support to the Government. Projektnr/Project no A12004 Godkänd av/Approved by Eva Mittermaier FOI, Totalförsvarets Forskningsinstitut FOI, Swedish Defence Research Agency Avdelningen för Försvarsanalys Division of Defence Analysis 164 90 Stockholm SE-164 90 Stockholm FOI-R--2683--SE Sammanfattning Pakistan har hamnat i världens fokus till följd av en rad politiska, ekonomiska och säkerhetsrelaterade händelser. Ökad insikt i att Pakistan spelar en kritisk roll för ett stabilare Afghanistan har också riktat strålkastarna mot landet. Med det växandet intresset finns också en ökad önskan att fördjupa kunskapen om regionen. Denna rapport sammanför en grupp av internationellt ledande Pakistan- experter som här analyserar utvecklingen i Pakistan. För att påvisa de regionala kopplingarna har skribenterna analyserat olika frågor med ett försämrat säker- hetsläge i Afghanistan som utgångspunkt. Rapportens målsättning är att granska utvecklingen i Pakistan från ett inrikes-, regionalt och internationellt perspektiv. Nyckelord: Pakistan, Afghanistan, Indien, Kina, Iran, USA, NATO, terrorism, Al Qaeda, Taliban, Sydasien, kärnvapen. 3 FOI-R--2683--SE Summary Pakistan is at the centre of the world’s attention in the wake of various political, economic and security-related events. The recognition that Pakistan has a key role in the stabilisation of neighbouring Afghanistan has also brought the country into the spotlight. With the intensified focus on the region, there is a growing desire to deepen the understanding of links between Pakistan and Afghanistan as well as related regional and international dynamics. This report brings together a group of internationally leading Pakistan-experts who look at various issues related to the country. In order to highlight the regional linkages the writers analyse different topics with a deteriorating security situation in Afghanistan as point of departure. The objective of the report is to look at developments in Pakistan from a domestic, regional and international perspective. Keywords: Pakistan, Afghanistan, India, China, Iran, USA, NATO, terrorism, Al Qaeda, Taliban, South Asia, nuclear weapons. 4 FOI-R--2683--SE The Asia Security Studies Programme The Asia Security Studies programme at the Swedish Defence Research Agency’s Department of Defence Analysis conducts research and policy relevant analysis on defence and security related issues. Its primary focus is on East and South Asia as well as the Persian Gulf region. The programme strikes a balance between working on issues directly affecting Swedish foreign and defence policy as well as research on topics with wider regional and global implications. The Asia Security Studies programme is mainly financed by the Swedish Ministry of Defence but research is also conducted for other ministries and agencies in Sweden and abroad. 5 FOI-R--2683--SE Table of Contents The Asia Security Studies Programme ....................................................... 5 Introduction.................................................................................................... 9 Pakistan and Afghanistan in Focus................................................................. 9 Objective & Method ....................................................................................... 10 Research Questions & Scenario ................................................................... 11 Structure & Content....................................................................................... 12 1 Pakistan’s Security Complex – Shuja Nawaz................................. 15 1.1 The Age of Terror............................................................................ 18 1.2 Power Brokers................................................................................. 19 1.3 Today’s Headline: “War on Terror” ................................................. 19 1.4 The Corporate Army........................................................................ 21 1.5 Nature of the Army.......................................................................... 21 1.6 The Wide Footprint of the Army ...................................................... 22 1.7 Army vs. Civil Hierarchy.................................................................. 23 1.8 Protecting its Own........................................................................... 24 1.9 Challenges Ahead........................................................................... 25 1.10 An Army Undergoing Change ......................................................... 26 1.11 Penetration of Civil Society ............................................................. 27 1.12 Defending the Homeland ................................................................ 28 1.13 Looking Ahead ................................................................................ 28 1.14 The Immediate Challenges ............................................................. 29 2 Militant Organisations and Their Driving Forces – Rohan Gunaratna and Syed Adnan Ali Shah Bukhari, RSIS, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore.............................. 32 2.1 Introduction ..................................................................................... 32 2.2 Militant Organisations in FATA ....................................................... 35 2.3 The Pakistani Taliban ..................................................................... 41 6 FOI-R--2683--SE 2.4 Post-2008 General Elections and the Security Situation in FATA ...............................................................................................51 2.5 Key Drivers behind the Rise of Taliban and the Subsequent Talibanisation of FATA....................................................................53 2.6 Conclusion.......................................................................................57 3 Security Dynamics in Pakistan’s Border Areas – Imtiaz Gul, Center for Research and Security Studies, Islamabad..................62 3.1 Introduction......................................................................................62 3.2 The Tribal Structure.........................................................................66 3.3 The FCR..........................................................................................67 3.4 Administrative Arrangements ..........................................................67 3.5 Political Representation...................................................................68 3.6 Actors in Conflict .............................................................................68 3.7 Militant Forces in FATA...................................................................70 3.8 Cross-Border Allies - Afghan Organisations ...................................78 3.9 Non-Afghan Foreign Militants..........................................................78 3.10 Arab Al- Qaeda / Taliban.................................................................80 3.11 Militants’ Relations with Federal / Provincial Government..............82 3.12 FATA Future....................................................................................83 4 Relations between Pakistan and Afghanistan – Ann Wilkens, Swedish Ministry for Foreign Affairs...............................................88 4.1 The Pashtunistan Issue...................................................................88 4.2 The Durand Line..............................................................................90 4.3 The FATA ........................................................................................92 4.4 The War Against the Soviet Union in Afghanistan ..........................94 4.5 Balochistan......................................................................................98