DOCSLIB.ORG

Pakistan – Consequences of Deteriorating Security in Afghanistan

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
Pakistan – Consequences of Deteriorating Security in Afghanistan Pakistan – Consequences of Deteriorating Security in Afghanistan EDITED BY KristiNA ZEttERLUND FOI, Swedish Defence Research Agency, is a mainly assignment-funded agency under the Ministry of Defence. The core activities are research, method and technology development, as well as studies conducted in the interests of Swedish defence and the safety and security of society. The organisation employs approximately 1000 personnel of whom about 800 are scientists. This makes FOI Sweden’s largest research institute. FOI gives its customers access to leading-edge expertise in a large number of fields such as security policy studies, defence and security related analyses, the assessment of various types of threat, systems for control and management of crises, protection against and management of hazardous substances, IT security and the potential offered by new sensors. FOI Swedish Defence Research Agency Phone: +46 8 55 50 30 00 www.foi.se FOI-R--2683--SE User report Defence Analysis Defence Analysis Fax: +46 8 55 50 31 00 ISSN 1650-1942 January 2009 SE-164 90 Stockholm Edited by Kristina Zetterlund Pakistan – Consequences of Deteriorating Security in Afghanistan Cover image: Border of Pakistan and Afghanistan. Picture taken in the spring of 2007 in Paktia Province, Afghanistan, looking into Pakistan. Photographer: Staff Sergeant Wells, United States Army. FOI-R--2683--SE Title Pakistan – Consequences of Deteriorating Security in Afghanistan Rapportnr/Report no FOI-R--2683--SE Rapporttyp Användarrapport Report Type User report Månad/Month Januari/January Utgivningsår/Year 2009 Antal sidor/Pages 164 p ISSN ISSN 1650-1942 Kund/Customer Försvarsdepartementet Forskningsområde 1. Analys av säkerhet och sårbarhet Programme area 1. Security, safety and vulnerability analysis Delområde 11 Forskning för regeringens behov Subcategory 11 Policy Support to the Government. Projektnr/Project no A12004 Godkänd av/Approved by Eva Mittermaier FOI, Totalförsvarets Forskningsinstitut FOI, Swedish Defence Research Agency Avdelningen för Försvarsanalys Division of Defence Analysis 164 90 Stockholm SE-164 90 Stockholm FOI-R--2683--SE Sammanfattning Pakistan har hamnat i världens fokus till följd av en rad politiska, ekonomiska och säkerhetsrelaterade händelser. Ökad insikt i att Pakistan spelar en kritisk roll för ett stabilare Afghanistan har också riktat strålkastarna mot landet. Med det växandet intresset finns också en ökad önskan att fördjupa kunskapen om regionen. Denna rapport sammanför en grupp av internationellt ledande Pakistan- experter som här analyserar utvecklingen i Pakistan. För att påvisa de regionala kopplingarna har skribenterna analyserat olika frågor med ett försämrat säker- hetsläge i Afghanistan som utgångspunkt. Rapportens målsättning är att granska utvecklingen i Pakistan från ett inrikes-, regionalt och internationellt perspektiv. Nyckelord: Pakistan, Afghanistan, Indien, Kina, Iran, USA, NATO, terrorism, Al Qaeda, Taliban, Sydasien, kärnvapen. 3 FOI-R--2683--SE Summary Pakistan is at the centre of the world’s attention in the wake of various political, economic and security-related events. The recognition that Pakistan has a key role in the stabilisation of neighbouring Afghanistan has also brought the country into the spotlight. With the intensified focus on the region, there is a growing desire to deepen the understanding of links between Pakistan and Afghanistan as well as related regional and international dynamics. This report brings together a group of internationally leading Pakistan-experts who look at various issues related to the country. In order to highlight the regional linkages the writers analyse different topics with a deteriorating security situation in Afghanistan as point of departure. The objective of the report is to look at developments in Pakistan from a domestic, regional and international perspective. Keywords: Pakistan, Afghanistan, India, China, Iran, USA, NATO, terrorism, Al Qaeda, Taliban, South Asia, nuclear weapons. 4 FOI-R--2683--SE The Asia Security Studies Programme The Asia Security Studies programme at the Swedish Defence Research Agency’s Department of Defence Analysis conducts research and policy relevant analysis on defence and security related issues. Its primary focus is on East and South Asia as well as the Persian Gulf region. The programme strikes a balance between working on issues directly affecting Swedish foreign and defence policy as well as research on topics with wider regional and global implications. The Asia Security Studies programme is mainly financed by the Swedish Ministry of Defence but research is also conducted for other ministries and agencies in Sweden and abroad. 5 FOI-R--2683--SE Table of Contents The Asia Security Studies Programme ....................................................... 5 Introduction.................................................................................................... 9 Pakistan and Afghanistan in Focus................................................................. 9 Objective & Method ....................................................................................... 10 Research Questions & Scenario ................................................................... 11 Structure & Content....................................................................................... 12 1 Pakistan’s Security Complex – Shuja Nawaz................................. 15 1.1 The Age of Terror............................................................................ 18 1.2 Power Brokers................................................................................. 19 1.3 Today’s Headline: “War on Terror” ................................................. 19 1.4 The Corporate Army........................................................................ 21 1.5 Nature of the Army.......................................................................... 21 1.6 The Wide Footprint of the Army ...................................................... 22 1.7 Army vs. Civil Hierarchy.................................................................. 23 1.8 Protecting its Own........................................................................... 24 1.9 Challenges Ahead........................................................................... 25 1.10 An Army Undergoing Change ......................................................... 26 1.11 Penetration of Civil Society ............................................................. 27 1.12 Defending the Homeland ................................................................ 28 1.13 Looking Ahead ................................................................................ 28 1.14 The Immediate Challenges ............................................................. 29 2 Militant Organisations and Their Driving Forces – Rohan Gunaratna and Syed Adnan Ali Shah Bukhari, RSIS, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore.............................. 32 2.1 Introduction ..................................................................................... 32 2.2 Militant Organisations in FATA ....................................................... 35 2.3 The Pakistani Taliban ..................................................................... 41 6 FOI-R--2683--SE 2.4 Post-2008 General Elections and the Security Situation in FATA ...............................................................................................51 2.5 Key Drivers behind the Rise of Taliban and the Subsequent Talibanisation of FATA....................................................................53 2.6 Conclusion.......................................................................................57 3 Security Dynamics in Pakistan’s Border Areas – Imtiaz Gul, Center for Research and Security Studies, Islamabad..................62 3.1 Introduction......................................................................................62 3.2 The Tribal Structure.........................................................................66 3.3 The FCR..........................................................................................67 3.4 Administrative Arrangements ..........................................................67 3.5 Political Representation...................................................................68 3.6 Actors in Conflict .............................................................................68 3.7 Militant Forces in FATA...................................................................70 3.8 Cross-Border Allies - Afghan Organisations ...................................78 3.9 Non-Afghan Foreign Militants..........................................................78 3.10 Arab Al- Qaeda / Taliban.................................................................80 3.11 Militants’ Relations with Federal / Provincial Government..............82 3.12 FATA Future....................................................................................83 4 Relations between Pakistan and Afghanistan – Ann Wilkens, Swedish Ministry for Foreign Affairs...............................................88 4.1 The Pashtunistan Issue...................................................................88 4.2 The Durand Line..............................................................................90 4.3 The FATA ........................................................................................92 4.4 The War Against the Soviet Union in Afghanistan ..........................94 4.5 Balochistan......................................................................................98
Load more

Recommended publications
  • COIN in Afghanistan - Winning the Battles, Losing the War?
    COIN in Afghanistan - Winning the Battles, Losing the War? MAGNUS NORELL FOI, Swedish Defence Research Agency, is a mainly assignment-funded agency under the Ministry of Defence. The core activities are research, method and technology development, as well as studies conducted in the interests of Swedish defence and the safety and security of society. The organisation employs approximately 1000 personnel of whom about 800 are scientists. This makes FOI Sweden’s largest research institute. FOI gives its customers access to leading-edge expertise in a large number of fields such as security policy studies, defence and security related analyses, the assessment of various types of threat, systems for control and management of crises, protection against and management of hazardous substances, IT security and the potential offered by new sensors. FOI Swedish Defence Research Agency Phone: +46 8 555 030 00 www.foi.se FOI Memo 3123 Memo Defence Analysis Defence Analysis Fax: +46 8 555 031 00 ISSN 1650-1942 March 2010 SE-164 90 Stockholm Magnus Norell COIN in Afghanistan - Winning the Battles, Losing the War? “If you don’t know where you’re going. Any road will take you there” (From a song by George Harrison) FOI Memo 3123 Title COIN in Afghanistan – Winning the Battles, Losing the War? Rapportnr/Report no FOI Memo 3123 Rapporttyp/Report Type FOI Memo Månad/Month Mars/March Utgivningsår/Year 2010 Antal sidor/Pages 41 p ISSN ISSN 1650-1942 Kund/Customer Försvarsdepartementet Projektnr/Project no A12004 Godkänd av/Approved by Eva Mittermaier FOI, Totalförsvarets Forskningsinstitut FOI, Swedish Defence Research Agency Avdelningen för Försvarsanalys Department of Defence Analysis 164 90 Stockholm SE-164 90 Stockholm FOI Memo 3123 Programme managers remarks The Asia Security Studies programme at the Swedish Defence Research Agency’s Department of Defence Analysis conducts research and policy relevant analysis on defence and security related issues.
    [Show full text]
  • The Haqqani Network in Kurram the Regional Implications of a Growing Insurgency
    May 2011 The haQQani NetworK in KURR AM THE REGIONAL IMPLICATIONS OF A GROWING INSURGENCY Jeffrey Dressler & Reza Jan All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America. ©2011 by the Institute for the Study of War and AEI’s Critical Threats Project Cover image courtesy of Dr. Mohammad Taqi. the haqqani network in kurram The Regional Implications of a Growing Insurgency Jeffrey Dressler & Reza Jan A Report by the Institute for the Study of War and AEI’s Critical Threats Project ACKNOWLEDGEMENts This report would not have been possible without the help and hard work of numerous individuals. The authors would like to thank Alex Della Rocchetta and David Witter for their diligent research and critical support in the production of the report, Maggie Rackl for her patience and technical skill with graphics and design, and Marisa Sullivan and Maseh Zarif for their keen insight and editorial assistance. The authors would also like to thank Kim and Fred Kagan for their necessary inspiration and guidance. As always, credit belongs to many, but the contents of this report represent the views of the authors alone. taBLE OF CONTENts Introduction.....................................................................................1 Brief History of Kurram Agency............................................................1 The Mujahideen Years & Operation Enduring Freedom .............................. 2 Surge of Sectarianism in Kurram ...........................................................4 North Waziristan & The Search for New Sanctuary.....................................7
    [Show full text]
  • Air Power and National Security[INITIAL].P65
    AIR POWER AND NATIONAL SECURITY Indian Air Force: Evolution, Growth and Future AIR POWER AND NATIONAL SECURITY Indian Air Force: Evolution, Growth and Future Air Commodore Ramesh V. Phadke (Retd.) INSTITUTE FOR DEFENCE STUDIES & ANALYSES NEW DELHI PENTAGON PRESS Air Power and National Security: Indian Air Force: Evolution, Growth and Future Air Commodore Ramesh V. Phadke (Retd.) First Published in 2015 Copyright © Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, New Delhi ISBN 978-81-8274-840-8 All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without first obtaining written permission of the copyright owner. Disclaimer: The views expressed in this book are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, or the Government of India. Published by PENTAGON PRESS 206, Peacock Lane, Shahpur Jat, New Delhi-110049 Phones: 011-64706243, 26491568 Telefax: 011-26490600 email: [email protected] website: www.pentagonpress.in Branch Flat No.213, Athena-2, Clover Acropolis, Viman Nagar, Pune-411014 Email: [email protected] In association with Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses No. 1, Development Enclave, New Delhi-110010 Phone: +91-11-26717983 Website: www.idsa.in Printed at Avantika Printers Private Limited. This book is dedicated to the memory of my parents, Shri V.V. Phadke and Shrimati Vimal Phadke, My in-laws, Brig. G.S. Sidhu, AVSM and Mrs. Pritam Sidhu, Late Flg. Offr. Harita Deol, my niece, who died in an Avro accident on December 24, 1996, Late Flt.
    [Show full text]
  • Articles Al-Qaida and the Pakistani Harakat Movement: Reflections and Questions About the Pre-2001 Period by Don Rassler
    PERSPECTIVES ON TERRORISM Volume 11, Issue 6 Articles Al-Qaida and the Pakistani Harakat Movement: Reflections and Questions about the pre-2001 Period by Don Rassler Abstract There has been a modest amount of progress made over the last two decades in piecing together the developments that led to creation of al-Qaida and how the group has evolved over the last 30 years. Yet, there are still many dimensions of al-Qaida that remain understudied, and likely as a result, poorly understood. One major gap are the dynamics and relationships that have underpinned al-Qaida’s multi-decade presence in Pakistan. The lack of developed and foundational work done on the al-Qaida-Pakistan linkage is quite surprising given how long al- Qaida has been active in the country, the mix of geographic areas - from Pakistan’s tribal areas to its main cities - in which it has operated and found shelter, and the key roles Pakistani al-Qaida operatives have played in the group over the last two decades. To push the ball forward and advance understanding of this critical issue, this article examines what is known, and has been suggested, about al-Qaida’s relations with a cluster of Deobandi militant groups consisting of Harakat ul-Mujahidin, Harakat ul-Jihad Islami, Harakat ul-Ansar, and Jaish-e-Muhammad, which have been collectively described as Pakistan’s Harakat movement, prior to 9/11. It finds that each of these groups and their leaders provided key elements of support to al-Qaida in a number of direct and indirect ways.
    [Show full text]
  • Dinamiche Etniche, Tribali E Politiche in Afghanistan
    Dinamiche etniche, tribali e politiche in Afghanistan n. 06 - gennaio 2010 a cura di Luca La Bella (Ce.S.I. Centro Studi Internazionali) OSSERVATORIO DI POLITICA INTERNAZIONALE Dinamiche etniche, tribali e politiche in Afghanistan n. 6 gennaio 2010 1 DINAMICHE ETNICHE, TRIBALI E POLITICHE IN AFGHANISTAN di Luca La Bella Fonte: elaborazione Ce.S.I. 2 SOMMARIO Introduzione p.3 Etnografia dell’Afghanistan p.4 Il panorama pashtun p.5 Le dinamiche nel mondo pashtun p.8 Il panorama tagiko p.15 Le altre componenti etniche p.20 La situazione nel settore italiano p.25 3 Introduzione La situazione afghana, caratterizzata da crescente instabilità politica - specie dopo la crisi elettorale che ha minato la legittimità di Karzai - e da un’insurrezione che dalle sue basi nel sud e nell’est del Paese si è ormai fermamente impiantata al nord e all’ovest, spinge gli attori internazionali alla ricerca di interlocutori locali affidabili, sia nell’ottica di trovare potenziali alternative a un governo impopolare e inefficace, sia nell’ottica di una possibile riconciliazione con quegli elementi dell’insurrezione più sensibili al dialogo. La sostenibilità delle operazioni militari e dei programmi di sviluppo e assistenza umanitaria alla popolazione dipende infatti dalla loro compatibilità con il tessuto etnico e tribale del Paese. Quanto più queste attività avvengono nel solco della cultura tribale e senza alterare gli equilibri etnici tradizionali tanto più esse avranno la possibilità di riuscire negli obiettivi prefissati. Al fine di armonizzare il rapporto degli attori internazionali (a livello politico, economico e militare) con le realtà afghane è necessario prendere in esame più dettagliatamente la composizione etnica e la struttura tribale dell’Afghanistan.
    [Show full text]
  • Pashto Language & Identity Formation in Pakistan
    Pashto Language & Identity Formation in Pakistan∗ Tariq Rahmany Contents 1 Linguistic and Ethnic Situation 2 1.1 In Afghanistan . 2 1.2 In Pakistan . 3 2 Pashto and Pakhtun identity 4 2.1 Imperialist mistrust of Pashto . 6 2.2 Pre-partition efforts to promote Pashto . 7 2.3 Journalistic and literary activities in Pashto . 8 2.4 Pashto and politics in pre-partition NWFP. 8 2.5 Pashto in Swat . 10 3 Pashto in Pakistan 11 3.1 The political background . 11 3.2 The status of Pashto . 13 3.3 The politics of Pashto . 15 4 Conclusion 17 References 18 Abstract Traces out the history of the movement to increase the use of the Pashto language in the domains of power in Pakistan. Relationship of the movement with ethnic politics; Linguistic and ethnic ∗Contemporary South Asia, July 1995, Vol 4, Issue 2, p151-20 yTariq Rahman is Associate Professor of Linguistics, National Institute of Pakistan Studies, Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad, Pakistan. 1 Khyber.ORG Q.J.k situation in Afghanistan; Pashto and Pakhtun identity; Attitude of the Pakistani ruling elite towards Pashto. Pashto, a language belonging to the Iranian branch of the Indo-European language family, has more than 25 million native speakers. Of these, 16 to 17 million live in Pakistan and 8 to 9 million in Afghanistan.1 Pashto is the official language in Afghanistan, along with Dari (Afghan Persian), but in Pakistan it is not used in the domains of power–administration, military, judiciary, commerce, education and research–in any significant way. The activists of the Pashto language movement of Pakistan have been striving to increase the use of the language in these domains–i.e.
    [Show full text]
  • Afghanistan-Pakistan Media Affairs Challenges and Opportunities
    Afghanistan-Pakistan Media Affairs Challenges and Opportunities Rahimullah Yusufzai December 2018 The media in Afghanistan and Pakistan has never been so large, vibrant and independent. It has attained unimaginable power and become a key player in politics and other walks of life. Media is the fourth pillar of the state and democracy in both Afghanistan and Pakistan in the true sense of the word. Earlier, it was the mainstream print and electronic media that was dominant and had assumed unprecedented importance. Now the social media is making an impact in these two neighbouring countries and often taking the lead in breaking news even if it has lesser credi- bility than the mainstream media. The media has tended to be overly patriotic and at times even aggres- sive in context of the perceived national interests of Afghanistan and Pakistan. The poor relations between Afghanistan and Pakistan affect the work of journalists. There is generally lack of awareness about each other due to the virtual absence of Afghan media in Pakistan and Pakistani media in Afghanistan. Table of Contents List of Acronyms i Foreword iii Rise in Media Power 1 Fallout on Media of Poor Afghanistan-Pakistan Relations 3 Status of Afghan Media in Pakistan 4 Status of Pakistani Media in Afghanistan 7 Reasons of Information Vacuum Between Neighbours 8 Creating Culture of Engagement – Establishing Institutional Relations 9 Between Media Stakeholders Impact of Regional Dynamics on Afghanistan-Pakistan Media 11 Relations – What Went Wrong Recommendations for States, Media
    [Show full text]
  • Kashmir Conflict: a Critical Analysis
    Society & Change Vol. VI, No. 3, July-September 2012 ISSN :1997-1052 (Print), 227-202X (Online) Kashmir Conflict: A Critical Analysis Saifuddin Ahmed1 Anurug Chakma2 Abstract The conflict between India and Pakistan over Kashmir which is considered as the major obstacle in promoting regional integration as well as in bringing peace in South Asia is one of the most intractable and long-standing conflicts in the world. The conflict originated in 1947 along with the emergence of India and Pakistan as two separate independent states based on the ‘Two-Nations’ theory. Scholarly literature has found out many factors that have contributed to cause and escalate the conflict and also to make protracted in nature. Five armed conflicts have taken place over the Kashmir. The implications of this protracted conflict are very far-reaching. Thousands of peoples have become uprooted; more than 60,000 people have died; thousands of women have lost their beloved husbands; nuclear arms race has geared up; insecurity has increased; in spite of huge destruction and war like situation the possibility of negotiation and compromise is still absence . This paper is an attempt to analyze the causes and consequences of Kashmir conflict as well as its security implications in South Asia. Introduction Jahangir writes: “Kashmir is a garden of eternal spring, a delightful flower-bed and a heart-expanding heritage for dervishes. Its pleasant meads and enchanting cascades are beyond all description. There are running streams and fountains beyond count. Wherever the eye
    [Show full text]
  • Politics of Nawab of Kalabagh Malik Amir Muhammad Khan (1910-1967)
    South Asian Studies A Research Journal of South Asian Studies Vol. 35, No. 1, January – June, 2020, pp. 155 – 170 Politics of Nawab of Kalabagh Malik Amir Muhammad Khan (1910-1967) Javid Raza Naseem Government Postgraduate College, Mianwali, Pakistan. Abdul Basit Mujahid Allama Iqbal Open University, Islamabad, Pakistan. ABSTRACT Political ideology of Nawab of Kalabagh Malik Amir Muhammad Khan (1910-67) was based on the perception of a highly educated but conservative feudal. He advocated status quo in almost all the matters including foreign relations. He advised Ayub Khan not to switch over to China because it would antagonise U.S.A. He was not so optimist about the solution of Kashmir issue. His pragmatic approach favoured the peaceful method of negotiation instead of confrontation. General perception portrays him as a typical landlord who was averse to education and freedom of press. Evidences from history reveal that there is a partial truth in it. He liked a responsible press which should not be left unbridled. Bengalis of East Pakistan made the bigger chunk of the total population of Pakistan. He, as a non-Bengali of West Pakistan, was apprehensive of their strength in numbers. Anti-One Unit politicians were secessionists in the eyes of Nawab so were dealt severely. He treated his political rivals according to their strength and ambitions. He was suspicious of Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto because he (Bhutto) was too ambitious to be trusted. He allegedly victimized Chaudhri Zahoor Elahi because Chaudhri had desired to replace him. Mawlana A. Sattar Niazi, Habibullah Paracha and Pir of Makhad Sharif used to challenge his supremacy in his native area so Nawab had to deal them harshly.
    [Show full text]
  • Floristic List and Their Ecological Characteristics, of Plants at Village
    Journal of Medicinal Plants Studies 2017; 5(5): 295-299 ISSN (E): 2320-3862 ISSN (P): 2394-0530 Floristic list and their ecological characteristics, NAAS Rating 2017: 3.53 JMPS 2017; 5(5): 295-299 of plants at village Sherpao District Charsadda, © 2017 JMPS Received: 16-07-2017 KP-Pakistan Accepted: 17-08-2017 Sajjad Ali Department of Botany, Bacha Sajjad Ali, Muhammad Shuaib, Hazart Ali, Sami Ullah, Kashif Ali, Khan University Charsadda, Saddam Hussain, Nazim Hassan, Umar Zeb, Wisal Muhammad Khan and Pakistan Fida Hussain Muhammad Shuaib School of Ecology and Environmental Science, Yunnan Abstract University, NO.2 North Cuihu Floral diversity of village Sherpao district Charsadda comprised a total of 104 plant species belonging to road, Kunming, Yunnan, PR. 46 families and 95 genera. The leading families were Fabaceae, Asteraceae and Poaceae contributed by 8 China species each (7.69%) followed by Solanaceae contributed by 7 species (6.73%), while Euphorbiaceae and Hazart Ali Lamiaceae contributed by 5 species each (4.80%) followed by Polygonaceae contributed by 4 species Department of Botany, Bacha (3.84%). Amaranthaceae, Amaryllidaceae, Boraginaceae, Malvaceae, Moraceae, Myrtaceae and Khan University Charsadda, Rutaceae contribute by 3 species each (2.88%) which is followed by Apiaceae, Cannabaceae, Pakistan Caryophyllaceae, Nyctaginaceae, Plantaginaceae, Mimosaceae and Ranunculaceae contributed 2 species Sami Ullah each (1.92%). Rest of 24 families contributed by 1 species each (0.96%). The most dominant life form Department of Botany, University was therophytes having 35 species (33.65%) followed by chamaephytehaving 17 species (16.34%) of Peshawar, Peshawar, Pakistan followed by nanophanerophyte contributed by 15 species.
    [Show full text]
  • “TELLING the STORY” Sources of Tension in Afghanistan & Pakistan: a Regional Perspective (2011-2016)
    “TELLING THE STORY” Sources of Tension in Afghanistan & Pakistan: A Regional Perspective (2011-2016) Emma Hooper (ed.) This monograph has been produced with the financial assistance of the Norway Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Its contents are the sole responsibility of the authors and do not reflect the position of the Ministry. © 2016 CIDOB This monograph has been produced with the financial assistance of the Norway Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Its contents are the sole responsibility of the authors and do not reflect the position of the Ministry. CIDOB edicions Elisabets, 12 08001 Barcelona Tel.: 933 026 495 www.cidob.org [email protected] D.L.: B 17561 - 2016 Barcelona, September 2016 CONTENTS CONTRIBUTOR BIOGRAPHIES 5 FOREWORD 11 Tine Mørch Smith INTRODUCTION 13 Emma Hooper CHAPTER ONE: MAPPING THE SOURCES OF TENSION WITH REGIONAL DIMENSIONS 17 Sources of Tension in Afghanistan & Pakistan: A Regional Perspective .......... 19 Zahid Hussain Mapping the Sources of Tension and the Interests of Regional Powers in Afghanistan and Pakistan ............................................................................................. 35 Emma Hooper & Juan Garrigues CHAPTER TWO: KEY PHENOMENA: THE TALIBAN, REFUGEES , & THE BRAIN DRAIN, GOVERNANCE 57 THE TALIBAN Preamble: Third Party Roles and Insurgencies in South Asia ............................... 61 Moeed Yusuf The Pakistan Taliban Movement: An Appraisal ......................................................... 65 Michael Semple The Taliban Movement in Afghanistan .......................................................................
    [Show full text]
  • Pakistan's Future Policy Towards Afghanistan. a Look At
    DIIS REPORT 2011:08 DIIS REPORT PAKISTAN’S FUTURE POLICY TOWARDS AFGHANISTAN A LOOK AT STRATEGIC DEPTH, MILITANT MOVEMENTS AND THE ROLE OF INDIA AND THE US Qandeel Siddique DIIS REPORT 2011:08 DIIS REPORT DIIS . DANISH INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL STUDIES 1 DIIS REPORT 2011:08 © Copenhagen 2011, Qandeel Siddique and DIIS Danish Institute for International Studies, DIIS Strandgade 56, DK-1401 Copenhagen, Denmark Ph: +45 32 69 87 87 Fax: +45 32 69 87 00 E-mail: [email protected] Web: www.diis.dk Cover photo: The Khyber Pass linking Pakistan and Afghanistan. © Luca Tettoni/Robert Harding World Imagery/Corbis Layout: Allan Lind Jørgensen Printed in Denmark by Vesterkopi AS ISBN 978-87-7605-455-7 Price: DKK 50.00 (VAT included) DIIS publications can be downloaded free of charge from www.diis.dk Hardcopies can be ordered at www.diis.dk This publication is part of DIIS’s Defence and Security Studies project which is funded by a grant from the Danish Ministry of Defence. Qandeel Siddique, MSc, Research Assistant, DIIS [email protected] 2 DIIS REPORT 2011:08 Contents Abstract 6 1. Introduction 7 2. Pakistan–Afghanistan relations 12 3. Strategic depth and the ISI 18 4. Shift of jihad theatre from Kashmir to Afghanistan 22 5. The role of India 41 6. The role of the United States 52 7. Conclusion 58 Defence and Security Studies at DIIS 70 3 DIIS REPORT 2011:08 Acronyms AJK Azad Jammu and Kashmir ANP Awani National Party FATA Federally Administered Tribal Areas FDI Foreign Direct Investment FI Fidayeen Islam GHQ General Headquarters GoP Government
    [Show full text]