National Power After AI AUTHORS JULY 2021 Matthew Daniels Ben Chang Established in January 2019, the Center for Security and Emerging Technology (CSET) at Georgetown’s Walsh School of Foreign Service is a research organization fo- cused on studying the security impacts of emerging tech- nologies, supporting academic work in security and tech- nology studies, and delivering nonpartisan analysis to the policy community. CSET aims to prepare a generation of policymakers, analysts, and diplomats to address the chal- lenges and opportunities of emerging technologies. CSET focuses on the effects of progress in artifi cial intelligence, advanced computing, and biotechnology. CSET.GEORGETOWN.EDU |
[email protected] 2 Center for Security and Emerging Technology JULY 2021 National Power After AI AUTHORS Matthew Daniels Ben Chang ACKNOWLEDGMENTS We would like to thank Igor Mikolic-Torreira, James Baker, Jack Clark, Remco Zwetsloot, Teddy Collins, Helen Toner, Jack Corrigan, Jeff Alstott, Maura McCarthy, Alex Friedland, Lynne Weil, David Lasker, Jared Dunnmon, Matt Mahoney, and Greg Allen for their comments on earlier drafts. We would also like to thank Andrew Imbrie for many thoughtful discussions and reading suggestions and Melissa Flagg for early input and ideas. This work benefitted directly from the early Office of Net Assessment summer study on AI in 2016. Of course, the authors are solely responsible for the views expressed in this publication and for any errors. AUTHORS Matthew Daniels was a Senior Fellow at CSET, where Ben Chang is an Andrew W. Marshall Fellow. Since authoring this paper, Matthew Daniels has taken a position in the U.S. government. He completed his contributions to this paper prior to departing CSET.