Forecasting the Outcome of Closed-Door Decisions: evidence from 500 years of betting on papal conclaves This is the peer reviewed version of the following article: Paton, D & L Vaughan Williams (2015), ‘Forecasting the Outcome of Closed-Door Decisions: evidence from 500 years of betting on papal conclaves, Journal of Forecasting, 34, 391-404, which has been published in final form at DOI: 10.1002/for.2339. This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance with Wiley Terms and Conditions for Self-Archiving." February 2015 Leighton Vaughan Williams Professor of Economics and Finance Nottingham Business School Nottingham Trent University Burton Street Nottingham NG1 4BU United Kingdom Tel: +44 115 848 6150 Email:
[email protected] David Paton* Professor of Industrial Economics Nottingham University Business School Wollaton Road Nottingham NG8 1BB United Kingdom Tel: +44 115 846 6601 Fax: +44 115 846 6667 Email:
[email protected] * corresponding author Acknowledgements We would like to thank Betfair for generously providing us with the extensive data set that we have used in this paper. We would also like to thank participants at a Nottingham Trent University Staff Seminar and at Georgia State University’s ‘Center for the Economic Analysis of Risk’ Workshop, held in January, 2014 at the University of Cape Town, for several helpful comments and suggestions. We are also grateful to two anonymous referees for valuable insights and comments. 1 Forecasting the Outcome of Closed-Door Decisions: evidence from 500 years of betting on papal conclaves. Abstract Closed-door decisions may be defined as decisions in which the outcome is determined by a limited number of decision-makers and where the process is shrouded in at least some secrecy.