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B U L L E T I N S p r i n g ■ 2 0 0 7 BULLETIN Sabato’s Crystal Ball Wins Top Honors in 2006 Prediction Success Caps Banner Year for Election Analysis Site arry Sabato’s Crystal Ball “came race, and over 95% of individual House Lcloser than any other of the 10 contests nationwide. top political predictors this cycle,” said Although the business of political The Pew Research Center and Pew prognostication always involves a cer- Charitable Trusts’ Project for Excellence tain amount of luck, much of the Crystal in Journalism (PEJ) in recognizing the Ball’s success in 2006 can no doubt be accuracy of Sabato and the U.Va. Center attributed to hard work and state-by- for Politics in predicting results of the state, district-by-district research to 2006 Midterm Congressional elections. determine the true dynamics in each “Perhaps Larry Sabato really does have race. Between the start of 2005 and the a crystal ball,” noted representatives of November 2006 elections, the staff for the PEJ. the Crystal Ball produced and published Indeed, it over 50 newsletter installments and would have countless website updates packed with been exceed- analysis relevant to the battles for gov- ingly difficult to ernorships and control of Congress. come any closer Under the guidance of Director Larry to predicting the Sabato, Senior Editor Matt Smyth, and year’s election House Editor David Wasserman, the outcome than Crystal Ball continued to enhance its did the Crystal reputation as a leading handicapper of Ball. The final presidential, congressional, and guber- BURCHETT pre-election natorial politics, all while keeping its update for con- resources free for students, educators, PHILIP gressional races political junkies, and interested voters hit the nail on alike. Teams of talented and dedicated the head: Sabato student interns contributed hundreds Prof. Larry Sabato and Crystal Ball of hours of research and assistance over offers Crystal Ball predictions during staff at the Center for Politics success- the course of 2006 to help make this Tucker Carlson’s fully predicted the exact Election Night possible. During the fall, five student live broadcast at the U.Va. Democratic gains of 6 seats in the House interns served as Crystal Ball regional Rotunda. and 29 seats in the Senate. The Crystal correspondents, regularly advising staff Ball’s election triumph included cor- on relevant developments within their rect final predictions for each individual coverage areas. Senate race, all but one gubernatorial CONTINUE D ■ ■ Be sure to bookmark and visit the website often! The Crystal Ball can be found on the web at: Center for Politics www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball Staff Larry J. Sabato, Director Reggie Jackson, Assistant ■ ■ The year 2006 also election cycle, the Crystal Ken Stroupe, Chief of Staff, Director of Development marked a period of signifi- Ball site will see enhanced Director of YLI Vanessa Freeman, cant growth and improve- ease of use for all visitors, Michael Baudinet, Corporate and Foundation Relations ment for the Crystal Ball and an increased subscriber Executive Assistant to the Director Matt Smyth, Director of and its resources. In addi- base that now totals well Danelia I. Robinson, Communications tion to more frequent mid- over 20,000. Among other Administrative Assistant to David Wasserman, Deputy term election updates, e- upgrades, the Crystal Ball Chief of Staff Director of Communications mail newsletters issued dur- plans to introduce new Mary D. Brown, Chief Meg Heubeck, YLI Director ing the fall campaign season syndication options and a Financial Officer of Instruction featured new HotRace new graphic design for its Jennifer D. Page, Office Jenny Merrill, YLI Deputy Manager and Fiscal Director of Instruction Readings™ charts to clearly readership as it embarks on Administrator Kristin Durst, YLI Outreach display the Crystal Ball’s rat- comprehensive coverage Daman Irby, Director of Coordinator ings for Senate, House, and of the 2008 battles for the Operations Howard Ernst, Senior gubernatorial races. As we White House, Congress, and Megan Davis, Director of Scholar Programs enter what is sure to be an statehouses. ★ Bruce Larson, Senior Tara Saylor, Director of Scholar exciting 2008 presidential Development Fall 2006 – Spring 2007 Interns Jim Bailey Melissa McDowell Margot Bolon James Noel Jeremy Branch P.J. Podesta Angela Briggs Logan Pugh Sophia Brumby Meredith Ramsey Katy Cannon Brenan Richards Chandni Challa Michael Rocks Marta Cook Lindsey Ruhf Alex Covington Clare Seekins Lee Crumpler Bayless Sword Julia Duncan Savannah Thompson- Anne Harris Hoffman Sarah Harvey Catherine Tobin Michelle Jamrisko Alexander Wong Erin Levin Brady Zedd Board of Advisors Mr. Dan Alcorn Mrs. Eva S. Hardy Mr. Frank Atkinson Ms. Betty Massey Mr. Fred Barnes Mr. Richard Norman Mr. Mark Bowles Mr. John Rasmussen The Hon. Kirk Cox The Hon. Ken Stolle The Hon. John Hager S p r i n g ■ 2 0 0 7 ■ p 2 Top: Conference attendees gathered at the Jefferson Hotel. Bottom left: Anne Holton, First Lady of As an extension of the Center for Politics Virginia Virginia Political History Project, the Bottom right: Mary Sue Center collaborates annually with the Terry, former PBS Community Idea Stations to produce Virginia Attorney documentaries highlighting content and General figures important to the history of the Commonwealth. Central to the mission of the Center is the pursuit to renew civic interest and participation in the electoral Virginia Political History Project process, particularly among our nation’s 2006: Women in Politics youth. Thus, it is fitting that in 2006 we turned our focus to J. Sargeant he 2006 Virginia Political History Paving the Way, discussed the challenges Reynolds, whose legacy is largely TProject on Women in Politics and celebrated the triumphs of former defined by his commitment to engage saw the conference’s largest turnout and present female political leaders. Virginia’s young people in the political to date. Held on July 21, 2006 at the This panel was introduced by Robin process. Jefferson Hotel in Richmond, Virginia, DeJarnette and moderated by Susan “Sarge Reynolds: A Documentary” the one-day conference, co-sponsored Magill. The panelists included Dr. Deirdre shows Reynolds’ tireless devotion to by the Weldon Cooper Center for Condit, Secretary Vivian Watts, Senator promote racial equality and public Public Service, featured remarks and Yvonne Miller, Senator Eva Scott, former education throughout the state, as well panel discussions by women who have First Lady of Virginia, Senator Edwina as delves into the reasons for his extreme served the Commonwealth in a variety Dalton Phillips, and Eva Teig Hardy. popularity and his ability to communicate of elective and appointive offices. The second panel, titled Toward the to the youth of the tumultuous ’60s. These women shared their experiences Future: Women’s Leadership in Virginia Through interviews with family, friends in politics, and provided insight and Government and Politics, was introduced by and political historians, award-winning encouragement for future generations of Larry Sabato and moderated by Secretary producer/director Mason Mills (“Wilder: female leaders in Virginia. Viola Baskerville. The panelists discussed An American First”) explores how the The present First Lady of Virginia, present and future trends and challenges death of this former lieutenant governor, Anne Holton, introduced the keynote for women in politics and included who some say was on the fast-track speaker, former Virginia Attorney Secretary Jody Wagner, former First Lady to the presidency, left a void in the General Mary Sue Terry, the only of Virginia Dr. Roxanne Gilmore, Delegate Democratic Party and changed Virginia’s woman to be elected to statewide office Terrie Suit, Delegate Jennifer McClellan, political landscape. in the Commonwealth of Virginia thus and former Virginia Lieutenant Governor far. The first panel, titled Political Pioneers: Leslie Byrne. ★ p 3 ■ 2 0 0 7 ■ S p r i n g American Democracy Conference The 2006 Midterm Elections and the 2008 Presidential Election ith the sweeping results of the beltway insiders and members of the Wmidterm elections still fresh political community was treated to a on the national political scene, an all- full day’s worth of insightful discus- star cast of journalists and political sion focused on both the dramatic operatives from both sides of the aisle Democratic sweep of Congress three assembled in Washington, weeks earlier and the quickly develop- D.C. on November 30, ing free-for-all race for the presidency 2006 for the ninth annual in 2008. American Democracy To the victors go the spoils, and Conference, titled “The Democrats in attendance were able to 2006 Midterm Elections begin the day by listening to an enter- and the 2008 Presidential taining address from one of their favor- Election.” ites. Democratic consultant and former Held at the Ronald Clinton campaign guru James Carville, Reagan Building and this conference’s keynote speaker, pro- generously sponsored vided a lively and engaging introduc- by the Wrinkle in Time tion to the day’s three panels. Carville Foundation, the confer- told attendees of all political persuasions ence drew one of its larg- he believes the nation will witness one The “ReDEMption” panelists discuss est crowds to date and of its most exciting and consequential the “sixth year itch.” was the ninth joint venture between the presidential contests ever in 2008 Center for Politics and The Hotline, the thanks to a lack of an incumbent and National Journal Group’s daily politi- several larger-than-life figures who are cal briefing. The audience of nearly 500 expected to run. Moderated by Center for Politics Director Larry Sabato, the first panel, titled “ReDEMption,” aimed to decon- struct the results of the “sixth year itch” elections of 2006. Weekly Standard Executive Editor Fred Barnes and Slate Chief Political Correspondent John Dickerson offered insights from their coverage of the elections. John Lapp, Executive Director of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, added his perspective as one of the engineers of his party’s takeover of the House.
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