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9781317050384.Pdf “Ivan Savic and Zachary Shirkey have written a masterful book. By combining rigorous, game theoretic reasoning with nuanced case studies they have created a new and superior understanding of different facets of uncertainty. And then, in clear prose they tease out fundamental policy implications for global politics and US foreign policy. Every international relations student should read this book.” — Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, Julius Silver Professor of Politics, NYU and co-author of The Dictator’s Handbook and Spoils of War. Uncertainty, Threat, and International Security The rise of China is changing the strategic landscape globally and regionally. How states respond to potential threats posed by this new power arrangement will be crucial to international relations for the coming decades. This book builds on existing realist and rationalist concepts of balancing, bandwagoning, commitment problems, and asymmetric information to craft explanations about how states respond when faced with potential threats. Specifically, the book explores the role different types of uncertainty play in potential balancing situations. Particular attention is given to the nature of the rising state’s actions, the balance of forces, and the value of delay. These concepts are analyzed and illustrated through a series of case studies on Europe in the 1930s as well as present-day Southeast Asia, looking at great powers such as Britain and France, and also a wide range of smaller powers including Poland, Yugoslavia, Vietnam, and the Philippines. Ivan Savic teaches Political Science at Memorial University of Newfoundland, Grenfell Campus. He received his M.Phil. in Political Science (with a minor in Economics) from Columbia University and a B.Com. from the University of Toronto, specializing in commerce and finance, and international relations. He has also taught at the University of Toronto, Brown University, Columbia University, and Hunter College, CUNY. His primary research interest is in international finance, specifically financial governance, the relationship between political and financial policy, and the politics of international crisis response. He is also interested in the interplay of economic and security issues such as the nature of economic interdependence under globalization and its impact on conflict. Zachary C. Shirkey is an Associate Professor in the Department of Political Science at Hunter College, CUNY. He received his PhD from Columbia. His research on military intervention, war duration, and alignment choices has been published in the Journal of Peace Research, the International Studies Review, and the Journal of Theoretical Politics. His two previous books, Is This a Private Fight or Can Anybody Join? and Joining the Fray, examine the causes and timing of military intervention in interstate and civil wars respectively. Rethinking Asia and International Relations Series Editor – Emilian Kavalski Australian Catholic University (Sydney) This series seeks to provide thoughtful consideration of both the growing prominence of Asian actors on the global stage and the changes in the study and practice of world affairs that they provoke. It intends to offer a comprehensive parallel assessment of the full spectrum of Asian states, organizations, and regions and their impact on the dynamics of global politics. The series seeks to encourage conversation on: • what rules, norms, and strategic cultures are likely to dominate international life in the ‘Asian Century’; • how global problems will be reframed and addressed by a ‘rising Asia’; • which institutions, actors, and states are likely to provide leadership during such ‘shifts to the East’; • whether there is something distinctly ‘Asian’ about the emerging patterns of global politics. Such comprehensive engagement not only aims to offer a critical assessment of the actual and prospective roles of Asian actors, but also seeks to rethink the concepts, practices, and frameworks of analysis of world politics. This series invites proposals for interdisciplinary research monographs undertaking comparative studies of Asian actors and their impact on the current patterns and likely future trajectories of international relations. Furthermore, it offers a platform for pioneering explorations of the ongoing transformations in global politics as a result of Asia’s increasing centrality to the patterns and practices of world affairs. Titles India–US Relations in the Age of Uncertainty An Uneasy Courtship B. M. Jain One Korea Visions of Korean Unification Edited by Tae-Hwan Kwak and Seung-Ho Joo Asia in International Relations Unlearning Imperial Power Relations Edited by Pinar Bilgin and L. H. M. Ling Uncertainty, Threat, and International Security Implications for Southeast Asia Zachary C. Shirkey and Ivan Savic Theorizing Indian Foreign Policy Edited by Misha Hansel, Raphaelle Khan and Mélissa Levaillant Russia’s Geoeconomic Strategy for a Greater Eurasia Glenn Diesen Uncertainty, Threat, and International Security Implications for Southeast Asia Ivan Savic and Zachary C. Shirkey First published 2017 by Routledge 2 Park Square, Milton Park, Abingdon, Oxon OX14 4RN and by Routledge 711 Third Avenue, New York, NY 10017 Routledge is an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Group, an informa business © 2017 Ivan Savic and Zachary C. Shirkey The right of Ivan Savic and Zachary C. Shirkey to be identified as authors of this work has been asserted by them in accordance with sections 77 and 78 of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988. All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced or utilised in any form or by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now known or hereafter invented, including photocopying and recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publishers. Trademark notice: Product or corporate names may be trademarks or registered trademarks, and are used only for identification and explanation without intent to infringe. British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library Library of Congress Catalogingi-in-Publication Data Names: Savic, Ivan, author. | Shirkey, Zachary C., author. Title: Uncertainty, threat, & international security : implications for Southeast Asia / Ivan Savic and Zachary C. Shirkey. Other titles: Uncertainty, threat, and international security. Description: New York : Routledge, 2017. | Series: Rethinking Asia and international relations | Includes bibliographical references and index. Identifiers: LCCN 2016049727| ISBN 9781472483201 (hardback) | ISBN 9781315610658 (e-book) Subjects: LCSH: Security, International--Southeast Asia. | Southeast Asia-- Foreign relations--21st century. | Southeast Asia--Foreign relations--China. | China--Foreign relations--Southeast Asia. | Comparative government. Classification: LCC JZ6009.S644 S38 2017 | DDC 355/.033059--dc23 LC record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2016049727 ISBN: 978-1-472-48320-1 (hbk) ISBN: 978-1-315-61065-8 (ebk) Typeset in Times New Roman by HWA Text amd Data Management, London To Ed Shirkey and in memory of Fred Neidhardt who both showed me that an academic life was possible. Zachary C. Shirkey To my loving parents Ana and Selimir and my wonderful brother Vladimir. Ivan Savic Contents . List of figures and tables x Acknowledgments xi List of abbreviations xii Introduction: threats and the challenges of uncertainty 1 1 Balancing as a commitment problem 16 2 Balancing and buck-passing I: a dynamic model with uncertainty 39 3 Balancing and buck-passing II: Western Europe in the 1930s 48 4 To bandwagon or hide I: a theoretical examination of the alternatives to balancing 67 5 To bandwagon or hide II: East Central Europe before World War II 75 6 Balancing and bandwagoning by other means: how the outbreak of war affects states’ responses to threats 99 7 The rise of China: will states balance, bandwagon, or hedge in the South China Sea today? 115 Conclusion 145 References 150 Index 164 Figures and tables. Figures 1.1 Basic structure of the game 23 1.2 Potential balancer’s action rule with certainty 27 1.3 Case of unique equilibrium: status quo (SQ) 28 1.4 Case of two possible equilibria: status quo (SQ) or balanced equilibrium (BE) 29 1.5 Case of three possible equilibria: status quo (SQ), unchallenged revision of the status quo (UC), or balanced equilibrium (BE) 30 1.6 Potential balancer’s action rule with uncertainty 32 Tables 0.1 Core hypotheses: uncertainty and balancing 10 0.2 Ancillary hypotheses I: nature of the challenge 10 0.3 Ancillary hypotheses II: bandwagoning and uncertainty 11 6.1 States which joined wars after being attacked 102 6.2 Types of joining, their likelihood, and underlying motives 103 6.3 Types of joining and the likelihood of winning 106 6.4 Joining by type, belligerent, and war 107 6.5 List of COW interstate wars v.4.0 108 Acknowledgments We would like to thank Timothy Crawford, Erik Gartzke, Craig B. Greathouse, Stuart Gottlieb, Christopher Layne, Paul MacDonald, M. J. Peterson, Christopher M. Sprecher, Alex Weisiger, and Scott Wolford for their helpful suggestions and advice at various stages of this project. Any mistakes are our own. Abbreviations ARF ASEAN Regional Forum ASEAN Association of Southeast Asian Nations COW Correlates of War INF Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty NATO North Atlantic Treaty Organization PLA People’s Liberation Army RAF Royal Air Force UNCLOS United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea Introduction Threats
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