Government of Afghanistan Ministry of Counter Narcotics

Afghanistan Opium Winter Rapid Assessment Survey February 2008 ABBREVIATIONS UNODC United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime ICMP Illicit Crop Monitoring Programme (UNODC) MCN Ministry of Counter-Narcotics ORAS Opium Winter Rapid Assessment Survey RAS Research and Analysis Section (UNODC) US$ United States dollars

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The following organizations and individuals contributed to the implementation of the 2008 Opium Winter Rapid Assessment Survey in Afghanistan and to the preparation of this report: Survey and Monitoring Directorate of the Ministry of Counter-Narcotics: Ibrahim Azhar (Director) Mir Abdullah (Deputy Director) Survey Coordinators: Fazal Karim (for the central region), Abdul Mateen (Nangarhar province), Abdul Latif Ehsan (Hirat province), Fida Mohammad (Balkh province), Mohammed Ishaq Anderabi (Badakhshan province) Remote Sensing Analysts: Sayed Mehdi and Ghulam Abbas Technical staff: Mohammad Khyber Wardak (Database Expert), Sahar (Data Clerk)

United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (Kabul) Christina Oguz (Country Representative) Shirish Ravan (Project Coordinator, ICMP) Nazir Ahmad Shah (National Project Coordinator) Ziauddin Zaki (Data Analyst) Abdul Mannan Ahmadzai (Survey Assistant) Provincial Coordinators: Fazal Mohammad Fazli (southern region), Mohammad Alam Ghalib (eastern region), Altaf Hussain Joya (western region), Mohammed Alem Yaqubi (north-eastern region), Lutfi Rahman (north region) Survey Coordinators: Abdul Basir Basiret (eastern region), Abdul Jalil (northern region), Abdul Qadir Palwal (southern region), Fawad Alahi (western region), Mohammad Rafi (north-eastern region), Rahimullah Omar (central region), Sayed Ahmad (southern region), Abdul Rahim Marikh (eastern region), Fardin Osmani (northern region) Eradication reporters: Ramin Sobhi and Zia Ulhaqa United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (Tashkent) Hakan Demirbüken (Regional Monitoring Expert for South-West Asia and Survey Project Supervisor, RAS/ICMP) United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (Vienna) Anja Korenblik (Programme Manager, RAS/ICMP), Thibault le Pichon (Chief, RAS), Martin Raithelhuber (Programme Officer, RAS/ICMP), Thomas Pietschmann (Research Officer, RAS)

This Survey would not have been possible without the dedicated work of the field surveyors. The illicit crop monitoring activities of UNODC in Afghanistan were made possible by financial contributions from the Governments of the United Kingdom, the United States of America, Finland and Norway. TABLE OF CONTENTS

1. FINDINGS...... 1 1.1. GENERAL FINDINGS ...... 1 1.2. NUMBER OF VILLAGES GROWING OPIUM POPPY...... 4 1.3. CASH ADVANCES RECEIVED FOR OPIUM POPPY CULTIVATION...... 4 1.4. FAMILIES INVOLVED IN OPIUM CULTIVATION...... 5 1.5. AGRICULTURAL ASSISTANCE...... 5 1.6. FIELD SECURITY...... 6 1.7. ERADICATION ...... 7 1.8. PRICES ...... 8 1.9. CANNABIS CULTIVATION ...... 9 1.10. OTHER FINDINGS...... 9 2. FINDINGS BY PROVINCE ...... 20 NORTH-EASTERN REGION...... 20 BADAKHSHAN PROVINCE...... 20 TAKHAR PROVINCE ...... 21 EASTERN REGION...... 22 NANGARHAR PROVINCE...... 22 KUNAR PROVINCE ...... 22 NURISTAN PROVINCE...... 23 NORTHERN REGION...... 24 BAGHLAN PROVINCE ...... 24 BAMYAN PROVINCE...... 24 BALKH PROVINCE...... 25 FARYAB PROVINCE...... 26 KUNDUZ PROVINCE ...... 26 JAWZJAN PROVINCE...... 27 SAMANGAN PROVINCE ...... 27 SARI PUL PROVINCE...... 28 CENTRAL REGION ...... 29 GHAZNI PROVINCE...... 29 KHOST PROVINCE...... 29 LOGAR PROVINCE ...... 30 PAKTIKA PROVINCE ...... 30 PAKTYA PROVINCE...... 31 PARWAN PROVINCE...... 31 KAPISA PROVINCE...... 32 WARDAK PROVINCE ...... 32 SOUTHERN REGION ...... 33 KANDAHAR PROVINCE ...... 33 HILMAND PROVINCE...... 34 URUZGAN PROVINCE...... 34 ZABUL PROVINCE ...... 35 WESTERN REGION...... 36 HIRAT PROVINCE...... 36 FARAH PROVINCE...... 36 NIMROZ PROVINCE ...... 37 GHOR PROVINCE ...... 37 BADGHIS PROVINCE ...... 38 3. METHODOLOGY...... 39 Maps

Map 1: Expected opium poppy cultivation trends in 2008 (by province) ...... 11 Map 2: Expected opium poppy cultivation trends in 2008 (by district) ...... 12 Map 3: Calendar of opium poppy planting in 2008...... 13 Map 4: Expected opium poppy flowering time in 2008...... 14 Map 5: Expected opium poppy harvest time in 2008...... 15 Map 6: Dry opium prices at the farm-gate (US$/kg)...... 16 Map 7: Sampling frame and selected villages...... 17 Map 8: Security situation in surveyed villages (as reported by respondents)...... 18 Map 9: Expected cultivation trend vs. security situation (as reported by UNDSS) ...... 19 PREFACE The opium poppy seedlings are still under the ground or snow in most parts of Afghanistan, but this Winter Assessment broadly anticipates what can be expected when they bloom this spring. Several findings deserve attention. First, field visits and interviews with village leaders indicate that cultivation levels will be broadly similar to, perhaps slightly lower than, last year’s record harvest. While it is encouraging that the dramatic increases of the past few years seem to be leveling off, the total amount of opium being harvested remains shockingly high. Europe, and other major heroin markets, should brace themselves for the health and security consequences. Second, the cultivation trends for 2008 deepen a dichotomy evident last year: a possibly growing number of opium-free provinces in the north and center of the country; and possibly higher levels of cultivation in the south and west – the areas of greatest instability. Third, the positive trend in the north is enhanced by decreases in cultivation in Nangarhar and Badakhshan. This is excellent news since these two provinces have been significant exceptions to the rule of an opium-free north-east. Fourth, the south and southwest continues to grow opium at an alarming rate, perhaps greater than last year when it accounted for 78 percent of total opium cultivation in Afghanistan. This is a windfall for anti-Government forces who take a tax (usher) of approximately 10 per cent of opium cultivation in regions under their control – further evidence of the dangerous link between opium and insurgency. Fifth, this survey, for the first time, includes information about opium stocks. Readers will note a major difference between amounts stock-piled by farmers in villages in the south as opposed to limited reserves in the north. Nevertheless, taking into account the massive amounts of opium that have been produced in the past few years – which far exceed world demand – it would appear that the bulk of this surplus is not being stored by farmers. Which begs the question, where is it? Sixth, another disturbing trend is the steady rise in cannabis cultivation, giving Afghanistan the dubious distinction of being one of the world’s biggest suppliers of cannabis in addition to providing over 90% of the world’s illicit opium. These are order of magnitude figures – the actual harvest will depend on the effectiveness of eradication. The volume of opium production (and eventually heroin) will further depend on the yield, which last year was at a record level. Based on this evidence there is a good chance that the high-water mark reached in 2007 will begin to recede.

Antonio Maria Costa Executive Director United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime

Afghanistan Opium Winter Rapid Assessment Survey, February 2008

1. FINDINGS 1.1. GENERAL FINDINGS Opium poppy cultivation trends Following a record level of 193,000 hectares (ha) of opium poppy cultivation in 2007, the Opium Winter Rapid Assessment Survey forecasts the following cultivation trends in 2008: x A sharp increase in cultivation in Nimroz province (western region), with a significant level of cultivation in that province; x An increase in cultivation in six provinces, mainly in the southern (Kandahar and Uruzgan) and western (Farah, Badghis and Ghor) regions, with a significant level of cultivation in those provinces; x Cultivation trends are expected to remain stable in five provinces, namely Hilmand, Day Kundi and Zabul in the south and Sari Pul and Takhar in the north. The southern region accounted for 69 per cent of total opium poppy cultivation in 2007; little change is expected in 2008. x Twelve provinces are likely to remain poppy-free, mainly in the central and northern regions. The number of poppy-free provinces may increase to 14 or 15 if spring cultivation is controlled through effective prevention campaigns and eradication efforts.

Overall, opium poppy cultivation in Afghanistan is likely to decrease slightly in 2008. However, early eradication efforts and an effective awareness campaign to control spring cultivation may reinforce this trend and bring about a further decrease in cultivation.

Table 1: Opium poppy cultivation trends in 2008

Cultivation No. of Provinces trend in 2008 provinces Balkh, Bamyan, Ghazni, Khost, Kunduz, Logar, Poppy-free 12 Nuristan, Paktika, Paktya, Panjshir, Parwan, Wardak Badakhshan, Baghlan, Hirat, Kabul, Kapisa, Kunar, Decrease 7 Laghman Sharp decrease 3 Faryab, Jawzjan, Nangarhar Increase 6 Badghis, Farah, Ghor, Kandahar, Samangan, Uruzgan Sharp increase 1 Nimroz, Stable 5 Day Kundi, Hilmand, Sari Pul, Takhar, Zabul

In 2007, poppy cultivation increased in eight provinces but decreased in 26 provinces, as a result of which 13 provinces became poppy-free (Annual Opium Survey Report for 2007, UNODC). A total area of 193,000 ha was under opium poppy cultivation in 2007, which represents an increase of 17 per cent as compared to 2006. That increase was chiefly attributable to large-scale poppy cultivation in the south, particularly in Hilmand province, which alone accounted for 53 per cent of total cultivation. A decrease in cultivation was observed in the north-eastern and northern provinces in 2007. The 2008 ORAS indicates a decrease in poppy cultivation in the east, north and north-east, but an increase in the main poppy-growing areas of the southern and western provinces, which may result in an overall slight decrease in poppy cultivation in 2008.

1 Afghanistan Opium Winter Rapid Assessment Survey, February 2008

Alfalfa in Nangarhar province Wheat in Nangarhar province

Cabbage in central region Poppy cultivation in Kandahar province

Key highlights of ORAS The 2008 ORAS highlights the following key cultivation trends as compared to 2007: x A sharp increase in cultivation in Nimroz province, mainly in the Khash Rod district; x A sharp decrease in Nangarhar province; x An increase in the Farah, Badghis, Kandahar and Uruzgan provinces; x Little change is expected in Hilmand province, which accounted for 53 per cent of total opium cultivation in Afghanistan in 2007; x At least 12 provinces continue to be poppy-free. Samangan province may remain poppy-free if the Government’s public awareness campaign to prevent poppy cultivation is implemented more intensively. Kabul province may become poppy-free if poppy cultivation is eliminated in the Surobhi district. A sharp decrease in opium poppy cultivation is expected in Nangarhar province in 2008, as was the case in 2005. This forecast is based on the extensive eradication of opium poppy crops (around 8,000 poppy fields) conducted by Governors in 2007, the effective implementation of the awareness campaign between September and November 2007 and agreement between the Governor of Nangarhar province and key Shura leaders. Balkh is likely to remain poppy-free again in 2008, while a further decrease is expected in Badakhshan province and a sharp decrease in a number of other northern provinces, including Jawzjan and Faryab.

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Table 2: Opium poppy cultivation levels from 2004 to 2007 and expected trends in 2008 Change Change 2008 Cultivation Cultivation Cultivation Cultivation PROVINCE 2006-2007 2006-2007 cultivation 2004 (ha) 2005 (ha) 2006 (ha) 2007 (ha) (ha) (%) trend Kabul 282 0 80 500 420 525% Decrease Khost 838 0 133 0 -133 -100% Poppy-free Logar 24 0 0 0 0 0% Poppy-free Paktya 1,200 0 0 0 0 0% Poppy-free Panjshir 0 0 0 0 0 0% Poppy-free Parwan 1,310 0 124 0 -124 -100% Poppy-free Wardak 1,017 106 0 0 0 0% Poppy-free Ghazni 62 0 0 0 0 0% Poppy-free Paktika 0 0 0 0 0 0% Poppy-free Central region 4,733 106 337 500 163 48% Kapisa 522 115 282 835 553 196% Decrease Kunar 4,366 1,059 932 446 -486 -52% Decrease Laghman 2,756 274 710 561 -149 -21% Decrease Strong Nangarhar 28,213 1,093 4,872 18,739 13,867 285% decrease Nuristan 764 1,554 1,516 0 -1,516 -100% Poppy-free Eastern region 36,621 4,095 8,312 20,581 12,269 148% Badakhshan 15,607 7,370 13,056 3,642 -9,414 -72% Decrease Kunduz 224 275 102 0 -102 -100% Poppy-free Takhar 762 1,364 2,178 1,211 -967 -44% Stable North-eastern 16,593 9,009 15,336 4,853 -10,483 -68% region Baghlan 2,444 2,563 2,742 671 -2,071 -76% Decrease Balkh 2,495 10,837 7,232 0 -7,232 -100% Poppy-free Bamyan 803 126 17 0 -17 -100% Poppy-free Strong Faryab 3,249 2,665 3,040 2,866 -174 -6% decrease Strong Jawzjan 1,673 1,748 2,024 1,085 -939 -46% decrease Samangan 1,151 3,874 1,960 0 -1,960 -100% Increase Sari Pul 1,974 3,227 2,252 260 -1,992 -88% Stable Northern region 13,789 25,040 19,267 4,882 -14,385 -75% Hilmand 29,353 26,500 69,324 102,770 33,446 48% Stable Kandahar 4,959 12,989 12,619 16,615 3,996 32% Increase Uruzgan 11,080 2,024 9,703 9,204 -499 -5% Increase Zabul 2,977 2,053 3,210 1,611 -1,599 -50% Stable Day kundi N/A 2,581 7,044 3,346 -3,698 -52% Stable Southern region 48,369 46,147 101,900 133,546 31,646 31% Badghis 614 2,967 3,205 4,219 1,014 32% Increase Farah 2,288 10,240 7,694 14,865 7,171 93% Increase Ghor 4,983 2,689 4,679 1,503 -3,176 -68% Increase Hirat 2,531 1,924 2,287 1,525 -762 -33% Decrease Strong Nimroz 115 1,690 1,955 6,507 4,552 233% increase Western region 10,531 19,510 19,820 28,619 8,799 44% Overall Total (rounded) 131,000 104,000 165,000 193,000 28,000 17% slight decrease

3 Afghanistan Opium Winter Rapid Assessment Survey, February 2008

The Khash Rod district of Nimroz province remains an important poppy-growing area. New agricultural areas in the desert were observed with the help of satellite images in 2007. Farmers are using deep wells to irrigate these new agricultural areas, specifically to grow opium poppy. A further increase is therefore expected in Nimroz province. Opium poppy cultivation is expected to remain at the level of 2007 (102,770 ha) in Hilmand province, which is a major concern for 2008. An increase in opium poppy cultivation is expected in the Kandahar, Uruzgan and Farah provinces, contributing to a further increase in the south and west of Afghanistan and thus widening the north-south divide. Additional poppy crops may be sown in upland areas of the northern and central provinces before mid- March, particularly in rain-fed areas, unless prompt actions are taken to prevent cultivation. In 2008, rainfall and water availability are expected to be extremely good throughout Afghanistan, which may result in good opium poppy yields. In 2007, opium yield was better than average (42.5 kg/ha) due to good availability of water. Although the Government and international stakeholders remain committed to eradication, no eradication activities had been initiated in any part of the country by the time this survey was completed in mid-January 2008.

1.2. NUMBER OF VILLAGES GROWING OPIUM POPPY Of the 469 villages visited, 148 (32 per cent) reported that they would grow opium poppy in 2008. The percentage of poppy-growing villages among those visited varies from region to region.

Table 3: Proportion of opium poppy-growing villages by region Non-poppy Poppy Region growing growing Central 99% 1% East 92% 8% North-east 76% 24% North 87% 13% South 15% 85% West 63% 37% Total 68% 32%

In the southern region, 85 per cent of the villages visited reported poppy cultivation in 2008. In Helmand province, all villages (30) reported poppy cultivation in 2008. Ninety-two per cent of villages visited in Uruzgan province, 83 per cent of those in Kandahar province and 77 per cent of those in Farah province reported likewise. However, no poppy cultivation was reported in the villages visited in Nangarhar (25) and Balkh (18) provinces, while 28 per cent of villages visited in Badakhshan reported low levels of poppy cultivation in 2008.

1.3. CASH ADVANCES RECEIVED FOR OPIUM POPPY CULTIVATION Villages in the Day Kundi, Hilmand, Laghman, Zabul, Badakhshan, Kandahar and Uruzgan provinces reported that they had received cash advances from drug traffickers to grow opium poppy. The ORAS indicates that 29 per cent of opium poppy-growing villages received such advances.

4 Afghanistan Opium Winter Rapid Assessment Survey, February 2008

Table 4: Cash advances received (by province)

Advance received No advance Advance Province Total (percentage of received received villages) Day Kundi 4 8 12 67% Hilmand 12 18 30 60% Laghman 2 1 3 33% Zabul 9 4 13 31% Badakhshan 7 3 10 30% Kandahar 19 7 26 27% Farah 6 1 7 14% Uruzgan 11 1 12 8% Badghis 7 7 0% Baghlan 2 2 0% Faryab 2 2 0% Ghor 4 4 0% Hirat 3 3 0% Khost 1 1 0% Kunar 2 2 0% Nimroz 4 4 0% Samangan 2 2 0% Sari Pul 5 5 0% Takhar 3 3 0% Total 105 43 148 29%

1.4. FAMILIES INVOLVED IN OPIUM CULTIVATION The percentage of families involved in opium cultivation in the villages visited is strikingly high in the southern provinces, closely followed by that for the western provinces. A high proportion of families are reported to be involved in opium cultivation in the following provinces: Hilmand (93 per cent), Uruzgan (66 per cent), Zabul (46 per cent), Nimroz (35 per cent), Day Kundi (26 per cent), Farah (24 per cent) and Kandahar (22 per cent).

1.5. AGRICULTURAL ASSISTANCE Of the 469 villages visited, 152 have received agricultural assistance (32 per cent) in the form of seeds, fertilizers and irrigation facilities. Seventy-six per cent of villages that have received agricultural assistance have not cultivated poppy. An analysis of the link between agricultural assistance and poppy cultivation by region appears to confirm that villages that have not received assistance are more likely to cultivate opium poppy. However, in the southern region, 69 per cent of villages have cultivated opium poppy despite having received agricultural assistance. The corresponding figure for the north, north-east and west is approximately 30 per cent, while in the eastern and central regions none of the surveyed villages that received agricultural assistance went on to grow poppy.

5 Afghanistan Opium Winter Rapid Assessment Survey, February 2008

Table 5: Agricultural assistance vis-à-vis opium poppy cultivation No. of villages Total no. % of villages cultivating Agricultural No opium Opium of poppy despite having Region assistance poppy poppy villages received agricultural received cultivation cultivation surveyed assistance No 55 1 56 Central Yes 36 36 0% No 33 5 38 East Yes 24 24 0% No 20 4 24 North-east Yes 21 9 30 30% No 58 6 64 North Yes 14 5 19 26% No 9 75 84 South Yes 8 18 26 69% No 31 20 51 West Yes 12 5 17 29%

1.6. FIELD SECURITY The security situation, as reported by respondents of the survey, was good in most provinces during the Opium Winter Rapid Assessment Survey. However, security was a general concern in most areas of Hilmand, Uruzgan, Kandahar, Ghazni, Khost, Paktika, Zabul, Kunar, Badghis, Nimroz and Farah. Since eradication had not begun in any part of Afghanistan by the time this survey was completed, it was not possible to assess the level of resistance among farmers to the eradication campaign. The survey indicates that approximately 70 per cent of villages with poor security and 63 per cent of those with very poor security are involved in poppy cultivation, as compared to only 26 per cent of villages with good security. There is a strong link between security conditions and opium poppy cultivation in the southern and western provinces, where 100 per cent of villages with poor security have cultivated opium poppy. This percentage is also significantly high (44 per cent) for the eastern region.

Table 6: Security situation vis-à-vis opium poppy cultivation No. of villages No opium Opium % villages Security poppy poppy cultivating opium situation cultivation cultivation poppy Very poor 16 27 63% Poor 21 48 70% Good 181 62 26% Very good 102 11 10%

6 Afghanistan Opium Winter Rapid Assessment Survey, February 2008

1.7. ERADICATION The Opium Winter Rapid Assessment Survey did not assess the implementation of the eradication campaign during the most recent cultivation season, but collected general information on eradication activities in those areas visited. Of the 469 villages surveyed during the ORAS, 206 had planted opium poppy for the 2008 cultivation season. Of these 206 villages, 62 per cent had planted opium poppy in spite of eradication activities in 2007. Seventy-three per cent of villages where eradication measures had not been implemented had planted opium poppy for the coming season. This seems to indicate that the experience of eradication in 2007 was not a strong factor in influencing the decision at the village level whether or not to grow opium poppy in 2008. The majority of respondents (60 per cent or more) from Day Kundi, Uruzgan, Hilmand, Zabul and Kandahar believed that eradication would not take place in their respective provinces, whereas some of the respondents in the western region (Badghis, Ghor, Farah and Nimroz) believed that it would. Respondents in the southern region believed that external forces/groups would protect their land from eradication, while respondents in the western region said that they themselves would protect their own land from eradication.

Table 7: Eradication in 2007 vis-à-vis opium poppy cultivation in 2008 No. of villages % of villages Eradication in No opium poppy Opium poppy cultivating opium 2007 cultivation cultivation poppy No 33 89 73% Yes 32 52 62%

An awareness campaign to prevent poppy cultivation was conducted in many areas of Afghanistan in October and November 2007. Of the 183 surveyed villages targeted by the campaign, only 49 (27 per cent) have cultivated poppy, while almost 35 per cent of the 284 villages not included in the campaign have opted for poppy cultivation.

Table 8: Awareness campaign vis-à-vis opium poppy cultivation in 2008 No. of villages No opium Opium % villages cultivating Awareness poppy poppy opium poppy after campaign cultivation cultivation campaign No 185 99 35% Yes 134 49 27%

Regional results indicate that the awareness campaign has had some impact in the central and northern regions and mixed success in the western region. In the south, the campaign has had little impact: 80 per cent of villages cultivated poppy in spite of the campaign.

7 Afghanistan Opium Winter Rapid Assessment Survey, February 2008

Table 9: Awareness campaign vis-à-vis opium poppy cultivation in 2008 (by region) No. of villages % villages Awareness No opium poppy Opium poppy cultivating opium Region campaign cultivation cultivation poppy after campaign Central No 84 1 1% Yes 7 0% East No 15 3 17% Yes 42 2 5% North-east No 28 1 3% Yes 13 12 48% North No 29 4 12% Yes 41 7 15% South No 11 69 86% Yes 6 24 80% West No 18 21 54% Yes 25 4 14%

1.8. PRICES In addition to the monthly collection of price information for key provinces, the 2008 ORAS collected price information in all 469 villages surveyed. The average farm-gate prices of dry opium (as at the time of the survey) were in line with the monthly price report. An overview of dry opium prices by province shows that prices are higher in the southern, western and eastern provinces, while generally lower in the northern provinces. Farm-gate prices for dry opium were not available in the central region, since farmers did not have any dry opium stock.. The average dry opium price collected from traders was US$113/kg in December 2007. The average price for dry opium at the farm-gate level was US$ 108/kg in December 2007. Opium prices normally drop during April and May of every year, which is peak harvest season of opium poppy. However, in 2007, opium prices touched rock bottom during month of September 2007. Average lowest opium prices were US$ 123/kg and US$ 125/kg in 2005 and 2006 respectively; however, the lowest price of opium in 2007 was US$ 91/kg. The highest opium prices were US$ 171/kg and US$ 158/kg in 2005 and 2006 respectively; while the highest price of opium in 2007 was only US$ 128/kg. Prices were much higher previous to 2005. This shows the decreasing trend of opium prices. The average price for fresh opium at the farm-gate level was US$ 82/kg, whereas average fresh opium price collected from traders was US$ 91/kg in December 2007. Fresh opium prices collected from traders and at farm-gate level also showed a decreasing trend after January 2007. Farm-gate prices fell from US$ 121/kg in January 2007 to about US$ 80/kg in December 2007. The average heroin price was US$ 2,557/kg and average price for cannabis resin was US$ 62/kg at the time of survey. Farmers in Afghanistan usually cultivate crops twice a year in irrigated areas, typically growing maize, rice, vegetables or cotton following the opium poppy or wheat harvest. Some grow cannabis following the first harvest during the summer. None of Afghanistan’s licit agricultural products can currently match per hectare income from opium poppy, which is estimated at US$ 5,000.

8 Afghanistan Opium Winter Rapid Assessment Survey, February 2008

Figure 1: Monthly farm-gate prices for dry opium, Sept. 2004 to Dec. 2007 (US$/kg)

250 222

200 187 180 171 170 167 161 161 159 154 152 150 149 147 145 150 145 141 141 140 140 139 139 137 136 134 133 128 127 125 123 121 115 114 113 108 105 105 101 100

Price in (USD/Kg) in Price 100 91

50

0

t r r l t r r l t r r l t y y y

v g v g v g v p c n b n p c n b n p c n b n p c

c c c c a p u a p u a p u a a a o o o o e u e u e u e e a e u e a e u e a e u e

J J J

O A O A O A O

J M J J M J J M J N F M A N F M A N F M A N S D S D S D S D Month

Source: UNODC Monthly Opium Price Report for Afghanistan, December 2007

1.9. CANNABIS CULTIVATION A greater number of villages reportied cannabis cultivation than in 2007: of the 469 villages surveyed for the 2008 ORAS, 18 per cent reported cannabis cultivation, whereas the corresponding figure in the 2007 ORAS was only 13 per cent. Cannabis cultivation was reported in Uruzgan (85 per cent of villages surveyed), Kandahar (71 per cent), Farah (56 per cent), Paktya (50 per cent), Zabul (47 per cent), Logar and Sari Pul (33 per cent), Hilmand (24 per cent), Nangarhar (24 per cent), Baghlan (23 per cent) and Balkh (22 per cent). Small-scale cultivation of cannabis was also reported in the Day Kundi, Nimroz, Badghis, Kabul and Hirat provinces. According to the 2007 Afghanistan Annual Opium Survey, an estimated 70,000 ha of cannabis crops were cultivated in Afghanistan in 2007, compared to 50,000 ha in 2006. Data obtained from the field indicated an increase in cannabis cultivation in 2007, particularly in the southern provinces and in some areas of Balkh and Paktya. Cannabis cultivation in Afghanistan is expected to further increase in 2008.

1.10. OTHER FINDINGS x Poppy cultivation vis-à-vis cropping intensity: During the ORAS, cropping intensity was assessed by asking farmers how many crops they cultivated on the same area of land over the course of the year. It was observed that of the 148 respondents who cultivated poppy, 59 per cent reported that they were able to cultivate two crops per year due to better access to irrigation. The remaining 41 per cent reported that they were unable to cultivate a second crop following the poppy harvest. x Taxes (usher) for poppy cultivation: Respondents were asked whether they paid taxes to anti- Government elements. One hundred per cent of respondents in the southern region and 72 per cent of those in the western region replied that they indeed pay usher (tax) to several elements.

9 Afghanistan Opium Winter Rapid Assessment Survey, February 2008

Respondents in the central, north and north-eastern regions reported that they did not pay such taxes. The majority of usher-paying farmers pay approximately 10 per cent of their income from opium poppy cultivation in taxes. These taxes are paid to one or more sources, such as district administrators, local commanders, mullahs, security commanders or anti-Government elements including the Taliban. The majority share goes to mullahs, the Taliban and local commanders. x Compensation by other farmers of losses due to eradication: Respondents were asked if other farmers compensated the losses of farmers whose crops had been eradicated. It was observed that this practice is not common in the central, eastern and north-eastern regions, and negligible in the north, south and west. x Opium stocks: Of the 469 villages visited, opium stocking was reported by village headmen in 74 villages. Of those 74, fifty-seven were reported in the southern region of Afghanistan. In that region, 52 per cent of the villages visited reported that they held opium stocks. The corresponding figures for the other regions were 11 per cent in the eastern region, 10 per cent in the western region and three per cent in the northern region. Villages visited in central and north-eastern Afghanistan did not report any opium stocks. An average of 55 kg of opium stock per village was reported in the 469 villages visited. In the south, the average opium stock per village was 226 kg, as reported by village headmen. Villages, which will grow opium poppy in 2008, reported more opium stocks than those that will not. UNODC will continue to collect information/data on opium stocks in Afghanistan in 2008.

Table 10: Opium stocks in the villages visited during ORAS 2008

Average opium Poppy cultivation in Average opium stock Region stock per village 2008 (Yes/no) per village (kg) (kg) No 0 Central 0 Yes 0 No 4 East 15 Yes 146 No 0 North-east 0 Yes 0 No 0 North 1 Yes 6 No 3 South 226 Yes 257 No 0 West 5 Yes 13 Total 55

x Marketing of opium: According to the reports of headmen in those villages visited, around 75 per cent of villages sell their opium in fresh form. Almost 60 per cent of farmers in the villages surveyed sell opium immediately after the harvest, while 40 per cent wait for some time after the harvest. Around 94 per cent of the farmers are paid in cash for the opium they sell. The above data/information (section 1.10) has been collected for the first time for the ORAS. UNODC will continue to collect the same information during the annual village survey that is scheduled to begin in March 2008. The annual village survey is carried out in approximately 1,500 villages, thus offering a better sampling size than ORAS.

10 Afghanistan Opium Winter Rapid Assessment Survey, February 2008

Map 1: Expected opium poppy cultivation trends in 2008 (by province) INDIA INDIA Main Cities Provi ncial boundaries Internati onal boundaries 2007 Cultivation level (ha) Poppy fr ee Strong decrease (Above 50%) 10% 50%) and (Between Decrease Stabl e (Between -10% and 10%) Increase (Between 10% and 50%) Strong increase (Above 50%) TAJIKISTAN TAJIKISTAN

Legend Cultivation trend as compared to 2007 446

Peshwar

3642 18739 Nuristan Kunar Fayz Abad Badakhshan

0 Km 561

Nangarhar 1211 0 Laghman Jalalabad 0 PAKISTAN Khost PAKISTAN 50 Panjshir

0 Ta kh a r 835 671 Kapisa Kabul 0100

0 0 500 Pakt ya 0 Logar 0 Baghlan Geographic Projection Datum: WGS 84 Kunduz Pakt ika 0 Parwan 0 Ward ak 0 0 Gh azni

0

Samangan 1611 Quetta Maz ar-E -Sharif UZBEKISTAN Zabul UZBEKISTAN

Balkh

Bamyan

260 1085 3346 Uruzgan

Sari Pul

Day Kundi 16615 Jawzjan 9204

Kandahar 2866 Gh or

Faryab

1503

102770 4219 Hilmand

Badghis

Farah 6507 14865

TURKMENISTAN TURKMENISTAN 1525 Hirat Nimroz IRAN IRAN Afghanistan Opium Rapid Assessment Survey, 2008: Expected opium poppy cultivation trends (by province) Source: MCN - UNODCNote: The Afghanistan boundaries Opium and Rapid names Assesment shown Survey, and 2008 the (http://www.unodc.org/unodc/en/crop_monitoring.html) designations used on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations.

11 Afghanistan Opium Winter Rapid Assessment Survey, February 2008

Map 2: Expected opium poppy cultivation trends in 2008 (by district) Peshwar ! INDIA INDIA Nari Dangam Bar Kunar Marawara Bargi Matal Kamdesh Shaygal wa Shiltan Sirkanay Wakhan Kot Lal Pur Waygal Muhmand Dara International boundaries Provincial boundaries Main cities Narang Poppy free Strong decrease Decrease Stable Increase Strong increase Wata Pur Dur Baba Khas Kunar Pech Goshta Chawkay Shinwar Nazyan ! Wama Bati Kot Nurgal Achin to 2007 Kama Legend Cultivation trend as compared Chapa Dara Ghaziabad Rodat Dara-I-Nur ! Kuz Kunar Bihsud Kuran Wa Munjan Jalalabad Dih Bala Alingar Nuristan Mandol TAJIKISTAN Du Ab TAJIKISTAN Chaparhar Surkh Rod Paryan Khogyani Qarghayi Warsaj Alishing Mihtarlam Peshwar Nurgaram Jaji Maydan Sherzad ! Pachir Wa Agam Dawlat Shah Asadabad Nari Dara Dangam Dand Wa Patan Chamkani Ishkashim Marawara Alasay Bar Kunar Zebak Kamdesh Hisarak Sirkanay Bazarak Kohistan Puli Hisar Bargi Matal Azra Tag a b Warduj Rukha Nijrab Narang Asadabad Khinj (Hisa-I-Awal Panjsher) Darwazi Bala Surobi Shighnan Shinwar Dur Baba Nuristan Jaji Lal Pur Kot Waygal Yamgan (Girwan) Shuhada Lija Mangal Wata Pur Mahmud Raqi Pech NurgalKhas Kunar Baharak Goshta Khash Unaba Kunar Andarab Jurm Darwaz Wama Fayz Abad Kuf Ab Khost Wa Firing Eastern region Achin ! Kohi Safi Koh Band Sayid Karam Kama Khaki Jabbar Shutul Ragh Khushi Bagrami Dih Sabz Bagram Dih Salah Rodat Badakhshan ! Yaftali Sufla Fayzabad Kuz Kunar Yawan Darayim Nuristan Kuran Wa Munjan Alingar Khwahan Mandol Dih Bala Du Ab Argo Nangarhar Shiki Khost(Matun) Jaji Maydan Tishkan Arghanj Khwa Surkh Rod Te re Z a yi Warsaj Kishim Paryan Bak Qarghayi Alishing Mihtarlam Laghman Dand Wa Patan Dawlat Shah Alasay Sherzad Gurbuz Jalalabad Nurgaram Khogyani Rustaq Farkhar Dara Jani Khel Chah Ab Sabari Khost Ta ni Surobi Shahri Buzurg Kalafgan Jaji Panjshir Azra Ta ga b Puli Hisar Musa Khel Nijrab Shamal Hisarak Chal Namak Ab Bazarak Takha r Lija Mangal Spera Kapisa Unaba Gayan Darqad Dashti Qala Ta lu qa n Khost Wa Firing Guzargahi Nur Khushi Jadran Firing Wa Gharu Bangi Kabul Shutul Sayid Karam Khwaja Ghar Andarab Kohi Safi Ziruk Yangi Qala Km Ishkamish Barmal ! Urgun Gardez Dih Sabz Khan Abad Archi Bagram Salang Nika Burka Dih Salah Khaki Jabbar Paktya Sarobi Istalif Nahrin Bagrami Logar Zurmat Puli Alam Farza Khinjan Charkh Aliabad Shinwari Muhammad Agha Sar Hawza PAKISTAN PAKISTAN Gomal Paghman Kunduz Baghlan Omna Wor Mamay Nirkh Zana Khan Sharan Imam Sahib Ghorband Kunduz Paktika 50 Kharwar ¯ Dih Yak Mata Khan Saydabad Dushi Puli Khumri Jalrez Andar Chak Baghlani Jadid Ghazni Parwan Turwo Giro Yosuf Khel Surkhi Parsa Jani Khel Qala-I-Zal Dahana-I-Ghori Shekh Ali Ta la Wa B a rf ak Jaghatu 0100 Dila Wardak Waza Khwa Day Mirdad Chahar Dara Zarghun Shahr Ab Band Rashidan Waghaz Shibar Aybak Qarabagh Khuram Wa Sarbagh Hazrati Sultan Sayghan Nawa Ghazni Khulm Muqur Nawur Hisa-I- Awal Bihsud Shamulzayi Gelan Ruyi Du Ab Bamyan Geographic Projection Datum: WGS 84 Samangan Markazi Bihsud Kaldar Kahmard Atghar Jaghuri Shahjoy Marmul Malistan Chahar Kint Feroz Nakhchir Quetta ! Maruf Naw Bahar Dara-I- Sufi Payin Nahri Shahi Panjab Ajristan ! Dara-I- Sufi Bala Mazar-E-Sharif Miramor Shinkay Qalat Waras Dihdadi UZBEKISTAN Kakar (Khak-e Afghan) UZBEKISTAN Zabul Balkh Arghandab Sholgara Balkh Yakawlang Zari Kishindih Bamyan Shortepa Daychopan Chimtal Dawlatabad Gosfandi Balkhab Khas Uruzgan Mizan Shahristan Arghistan Fayzabad Ishtarlay Chahar Bolak Mardyan Nili Tarnak Wa Jaldak Uruzgan Sozma Qala Lal Wa Sarjangal Sangcharak Gizab Chora Aqcha Qarqin Sari Pul Sari Pul Spin Boldak Miya Nishin Shorabak Day Kundi Shah Wali Kot Tirin Kot Khaniqa Kiti ! Khadir Mingajik Jawzjan Daman Nesh Shibirghan Khamyab Kohistanat Sayyad Sangi Takht Khakrez Arghandab Kandahar (Dand) Kajran Chaghcharan Gurziwan Zhari Khwaja Du Koh Dihrawud Kandahar Shahidi Hassas Darzab Ghorak Reg Bilchiragh Pasaband Maymana Kajaki Panjwayi Qaramqol Khani Chahar Bagh Sangin Maywand Dawlatabad Andkhoy Du Layna Kohistan Ghor Qurghan Baghran Dawlat Yar Shirin Tagab Faryab Pashtun Kot Musa Qala Khwaja Sabz Nahri Sarraj Lashkar Gah Ta yw a ra Jawand Qaysar Naw Zad Almar Shahrak Nawa-i-Barakzayi Washer Garmser (Hazarjuft) Tulak Hilmand Chishti Sharif Charsada Nad Ali Ghormach Gulistan Saghar Pur Chaman Qadis Badghis Reg (Khan Nishin) Murghab Farsi Obe Muqur Dishu (Registan) TURKMENISTAN Bakwa TURKMENISTAN Farah Qala-I-Naw Khash Rod Ab Kamari Karukh Bala Buluk Kushki Kuhna Pashtun Zarghun Chakhansur Shindand Farah ! Injil Kushk Hirat ! Guzara Pusht Rod Nimroz Hirat Khaki Safed Zaranj Kang Chahar Burja Zinda Jan Gulran Adraskan Kohsan Qala-I-Kah Shib Koh Anar Dara Lash Wa Juwayn Ghoryan IRAN IRAN Afghanistan Opium Rapid Assessment Survey, 2008: Expected opium poppy cultivation trends (by district) Source: MCN - UNODCNote: Afghanistan The boundaries Opium and names Rapid shown Assesment and the Survey, designations used 2008 on (http://www.unodc.org/unodc/en/crop_monitoring.html) this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations.

12 Afghanistan Opium Winter Rapid Assessment Survey, February 2008

Map 3: Calendar of opium poppy planting in 2008 Nari Dangam Bar Kunar Kamdesh Marawara INDIA Sirkanay Asad Abad Muhmand Dara Waygal Lal Pur Narang No data September October November December March October/March October/February November/March Provincial boundaries International boundaries Main Cities Dur Baba Pech Khas Kunar Goshta Chawkay # Shinwar Nazyan Legend Planting Dates Wama Bati Kot Nurgal Badakhshan Achin Kama Chapa Dara Rodat Kuz Kunar Dara-I-Nur TAJIKISTAN Wakhan Jalal Abad Dih Bala Alingar Nuristan Chaparhar Mandol Surkh Rod Khogyani Bak Qarghayi Alishing Mihtarlam Peshwar Jaji Maydan Sherzad # Pachir Wa Agam Dawlat Shah Nari Bar Kunar Marawara Sabari Dand Wa Pata Chamkani Dangam Asad Abad Ishkashim Kamdesh Alasay Zebak Jaji Khas Kunar Hisarak Bargi Matal Hisa-I-Awali Narang Waygal Pech Shighnan Baharak Azra Tagab Nijrab Lal Pur Jani Khel Dur Baba Hisa-I-Duwum Surobi Darwaz Jurm Musa Khel Goshta Lija Mangal Kunar Wama Nurgal Fayz Abad Koh Band # Achin Mahmud Raqi Jalalabad Kama # Ragh Khwahan Kohi Safi Panjsher KuranWaMunjan Eastern region Khaki Jabbar Nuristan Dih Bala Nuristan Rodat Fayz Abad Kishim Bagrami Khushi Sayid Karam Jaji Maydan Gardez Tere Zayi Puli Alam Kohistan Bagram Dih Sabz Mandol Warsaj Bak Kalafgan Qarghayi Nangarhar Gurbuz Laghman Sherzad Shahri Buzur Rustaq Farkhar Hisa-I-Awali Chah Ab Tani Khost Lija Mangal Jaji Azra Surobi Hisarak Tagab Nijrab Chal Bagrami Panjshir Gayan Spera Takhar Panjsher Kapisa Darqad Taluqan Khushi Andarab Khost Wa Firing Ishkamish Yangi Qala Kohi Safi Jadran Gardez Paktya Ziruk Khwaja Ghar Barmal # Urgun Bangi Archi Paghman Salang Burka Nahrin Kunduz Sarobi Kabul Khaki Jabbar Logar Gomal Ali Abad Zurmat Puli Alam Dih Sabz Khinjan Nirkh Charkh Omna Mata Khan Baghlan Wor Mamay 50 Baghlan Parwan Sar Hawza Imam Sahib Dushi Ghorband Sharan Ghazni Dih Yak Puli Khumri Kilometers Jalrez Paktika Sayd Abad Kunduz Andar Baghlani Jad Chahar Dara PAKISTAN Giro Surkhi Parsa Dahana-I- Ghori Khuram Wa Sabagh Zarghun Shah 0100 Jaghatu Geographic Projection Datum: WGS 84 Tala Wa Barfak Chaki Wardak Wardak Dila Qalay-I- Zal Shekh Ali Waza Khwa Ab Band Shibar Bahrami Shah Aybak Qarabagh ¯ Hazrati Sultan Khulm Nawa Muqur Nawur Bamyan Day Mirdad Ghazni Gelan Shamulzayi Kahmard Ruyi Du Ab Markazi Bihs Hisa-I- Awali Bihsud Kaldar Atghar Jaghuri Samangan Marmul Shahjoy Dara-I- Suf Malistan Maruf # Mazar-E-Sharif Quetta Chahar Kint Nahri Shahi Panjab # Ajristan Balkh Shinkay Qalat Bamyan Arghandab UZBEKISTAN Waras Shahristan Sholgara Shortepa Kishindih Yakawlang Zabul Daychopan Chimtal Balkh Balkhab Dawlat Abad Khas Uruzgan Mizan Arghistan Tarnak Wa Ja Sozma Qala Lal Wa Sarja Sangcharak Chora Fayz Abad Aqcha Spin Boldak Qarqin Mardyan Day Kundi Gizab Sari Pul Daman Day Kundi Shorabak Mingajik Tirin Kot Shah Wali Ko # Sari Pul Nesh Jawzjan Kohistanat Shibirghan Khamyab Sayyad Uruzgan Kijran Khakrez Kandahar Arghandab Khwaja Du Ko Dihrawud Shahidi Hass Chaghcharan Darzab Ghorak Kandahar Reg Maymana Bilchiragh Panjwayi Kajaki Khani Chahar Pasaband Qaramqol Maywand Sangin Dawlat Abad Kohistan Andkhoy Baghran Shirin Tagab Faryab Shahrak Musa Qala Pashtun Kot Khwaja Sabz Nahri Sarraj Lashkar Gah Qaysar Ghor Jawand Taywara Naw Zad Almar Garmser Naway i Barakzayi Washer Hilmand Tulak Chishti Shar Reg Nad Ali Ghormach Gulistan Pur Chaman Qadis Badghis Saghar Murghab Farsi Obe Dishu Muqur Bakwa Qalay-I- Naw Khash Rod Ab Kamari Karukh Bala Buluk Kushki Kuhna Pashtun Zarghun Chakhansur TURKMENISTAN # Farah Nimroz Injil Farah # Kushk Guzara Shindand Hirat Zaranj Khaki Safed Kang Chahar Burja Pusht Rod Adraskan Zinda Jan Gulran Kohsan Qalay-I-Kah Shib Koh Anar Dara Lash Wa Juwa Ghoryan IRAN Afghanistan Opium Rapid Assessment Survey, 2008: Opium planting calendar Source:MCN - UNODCNote: Afghanistan The boundaries Opium and names Rapid shown and Assessment the designations used Survey, on this 2008 map (http://www.unodc.org/unodc/en/crop_monitoring.html) do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations.

13 Afghanistan Opium Winter Rapid Assessment Survey, February 2008

Map 4: Expected opium poppy flowering time in 2008 Nari Dangam Bar Kunar Kamdesh Marawara International boundaries Provincial boundaries Main Cities Asad Abad Late March Early April Late April Early May Late May Early June Late June Early July Sirkanay Muhmand Dara Waygal Lal Pur Narang ! Dur Baba Pech Chawkay Khas Kunar Nazyan Flowering Calendar Goshta Legend Shinwar Badakhshan Bati Kot Nurgal Wama Dara Kama Achin Chapa TAJIKISTAN TAJIKISTAN Wakhan Rodat Kuz Kunar Jalal Abad Dara-I-Nur Nuristan Alingar Dih Bala Chaparhar Pachir Wa Agam Mandol Surkh Rod Qarghayi Khogyani Alishing Mihtarlam Jaji Maydan Sherzad Dawlat Shah ! PAKISTAN PAKISTAN Peshwar Nari Dand Wa Patan Chamkani Asad Abad Dangam Alasay Bar Kunar Hisarak Ishkashim Jaji Kamdesh Surobi Muhmand Dara Azra Zebak Nijrab Tagab Hisa-I-Awali Panjsher Bargi Matal Lija Mangal Shighnan Chawkay Narang Baharak Waygal Shinwar Dur Baba Kunar Lal Pur Paktya Darwaz Jurm Koh Band Fayz Abad Wama Pech Nurgal Panjsher Kabul ! Achin Kohistan Jalalabad Goshta ! Ragh TAJIKISTAN Khwahan Andarab Mihtarlam Agha KuranWaMunjan Nuristan Eastern region Nuristan Alingar Bagram Dih Bala Rodat Fayz Abad Kishim Jaji Maydan Salang Logar Muhammad Chaharikar Nangarhar Tere Zayi Mandol Khost Bak Warsaj Qarghayi Laghman Alishing Alasay Sabari Kalafgan Gurbuz Sherzad Shahri Buzurg Hisarak Rustaq Farkhar Mando Zayi Chah Ab Jaji Musa Khel Tani Azra Surobi Jaji Nadir Shah K Azra Chakmani Surobi Tagab Hisa-I-Awali Panjsher Nijrab Chal Panjshir Jani Khel Takhar Kapisa Lija Mangal Gayan Spera Panjsher Panjsher Darqad Taluqan Khost Wa Firing Ishkamish Yangi Qala Kohi Safi Jadran Bangi Khushi Andarab Khwaja Ghar Ziruk Jani Khel ! Barmal Urgun Gardez Archi Khan Abad Salang Bagram Burka Paktya Logar Nahrin Sarobi Chaharikar Kabul Khaki Jabbar Ali Abad Jabalussaraj Kunduz Gomal Zurmat 50 Dih Sabz Khinjan Baraki Barak Baghlan PAKISTAN PAKISTAN Charkh Guldara Nirkh Omna Nirkh Kilometers Wor Mamay Sar Hawza Baghlan Imam Sahib Sharan Puli Alam Dushi Dih Yak Ghorband 0100 Paktika Parwan Puli Khumri Zana Khan Kunduz Jalrez Geographic Projection Datum: WGS 84 Andar Chahar Dara Giro Baghlani Jadid Surkhi Parsa Shekh Ali Zarghun Shahr Jaghatu Tala Wa Barfak Ghazni Wardak Dila Khuram Wa Sarbagh Waza Khwa Sayd Abad Dahana-I- Ghori Hazrati Sultan Ab Band Chaki Wardak Shibar ¯ Qalay-I- Zal Aybak Qarabagh Bamyan Khulm Nawa Muqur Ghazni Nawur Day Mirdad Gelan Shamulzayi Kahmard Ruyi Du Ab Hisa-I- Awali Bihsud Kaldar Markazi Bihsud Samangan Atghar Jaghuri Shahjoy Bahrami Shahid(Jaghatu) Marmul Dara-I- Suf Mazar-E-Sharif Bamyan Malistan Maruf Quetta ! Chahar Kint Nahri Shahi ! Panjab Ajristan Shinkay Qalat Arghandab UZBEKISTAN UZBEKISTAN Waras Shahristan Shortepa Sholgara Zabul Kishindih Yakawlang Balkh Daychopan Chimtal Dawlat Abad Balkhab Khas Uruzgan Mizan Fayz Abad Arghistan Chora Sozma Qala Sangcharak Mardyan Tarnak Wa Jaldak Aqcha Lal Wa Sarjangal Day Kundi Qarqin Gizab Sari Pul Daman Sari Pul Spin Boldak Day Kundi Shorabak Mingajik Tirin Kot Shah Wali Kot Jawzjan Uruzgan ! Nesh Kohistanat Shibirghan Khamyab Sayyad Kijran Khakrez Arghistan Arghandab Kandahar Dihrawud Khwaja Du Koh Chaghcharan Shahidi Hassas Darzab Ghorak Reg Bilchiragh Kajaki Pasaband Qaramqol Panjwayi Maywand Sangin Maymana Khani Chahar Bagh Dawlat Abad Andkhoy Kohistan Baghran Shirin Tagab Faryab Shahrak Musa Qala Pashtun Kot Nahri Sarraj Ghor Lashkar Gah Qaysar Jawand Taywara Naw Zad Almar Garmser Naway i Barakzayi Washer Hilmand Tulak Khwaja Sabz Posh Reg Chishti Sharif Nad Ali Ghormach Gulistan Pur Chaman Badghis Qadis Saghar Murghab Farsi Obe Dishu Muqur Bakwa Qalay-I- Naw Khash Rod Ab Kamari Karukh Bala Buluk Kushki Kuhna Chakhansur TURKMENISTAN TURKMENISTAN Pashtun Zarghun Guzara Nimroz ! Farah Farah Injil ! Kushk Hirat Shindand Hirat Zaranj Khaki Safed Kang Pusht Rod Chahar Burjak Adraskan Zinda Jan Gulran Kohsan Qalay-I-Kah Shib Koh Anar Dara Lash Wa Juwayn Ghoryan IRAN IRAN Source: Government of Afghanistan -Note: The National boundaries monitoring and system names shown implemented and by the UNODC designations used on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations. Opium poppy flowering time in 2008

14 Afghanistan Opium Winter Rapid Assessment Survey, February 2008

Map 5: Expected opium poppy harvest time in 2008 Nari Dangam Kunar Bar Kunar Kamdesh Marawara District Boundaries Asad Abad Main Cities International boundaries Provincial boundaries Sirkanay No Data Early April Late April Early May Late May Early June Late June Early July Late July Muhmand Dara Waygal Lal Pur Narang Dur Baba ! Pech Chawkay Khas Kunar Nazyan Goshta Harvest Calendar Legend Shinwar Wakhan Bati Kot Nurgal Wama Dara Kama Achin Chapa Rodat Kuz Kunar Jalal Abad Dara-I-Nur Nangarhar Nuristan Alingar Dih Bala Chaparhar Pachir Wa Agam Mandol Nuristan Surkh Rod TAJIKISTAN Qarghayi Khogyani Alishing Mihtarlam Laghman Jaji Maydan Sherzad Dawlat Shah ! Peshwar Nari Dand Wa Patan Chamkani Alasay Bar Kunar Dangam Asad Abad Hisarak Ishkashim Jaji Kamdesh Surobi Zebak Azra Nijrab Tagab Narang Hisa-I-Awali Panjsher Bargi Matal Muhmand Dara Dur Baba Shighnan Chawkay Lija Mangal Baharak Waygal Kapisa Lal Pur Kunar Paktya Pech Darwaz Koh Band Fayz Abad

Badakshan Jurm Wama Nurgal Nuristan Panjsher Kabul ! Achin Kohistan Jalalabad Goshta Khost ! Ragh Khwahan Andarab Nangarhar Kuran Wa Munjan Agha Alingar Nuristan Eastern region Bagram Fayz Abad Rodat Kishim Tere Zayi Salang Logar Muhammad Dih Bala Chaharikar Mandol Laghman Bak Warsaj Qarghayi Alishing Jaji Maydan Sabari Gurbuz Khogyani Kalafgan Sherzad Shahri Buzurg Dawlat Shah Hisarak Rustaq Farkhar Mando Zayi Hisa-I-Awali Panjsher Tagab Chah Ab Jaji Musa Khel Tani Azra Kapisa Surobi Jaji Nadir Shah K Surobi Azra Chakmani Nijrab Chal Taluqan Jani Khel Takhar Lija Mangal Gayan Spera Panjsher Panjsher Darqad Dih Sabz Andarab Khost Wa Firing Gardez Khwaja Ghar Ishkamish Yangi Qala Kohi Safi Jadran Bangi Hisa-I-Duwumi Panjsher Ziruk ! Barmal Urgun Bagram Archi Khan Abad Salang Burka Istalif Kunduz Nahrin Sarobi Logar Gomal Chaharikar Kabul Khaki Jabbar Ali Abad Jabalussaraj Paghman Zurmat Puli Alam Paktya 50 Khinjan Baraki Barak Charkh Baghlan Guldara Muhammad Agha Nirkh Paktika Omna Nirkh Kilometers Wor Mamay PAKISTAN Baghlan Sar Hawza Imam Sahib Sharan

Kunduz Parwan Dih Yak Dushi Ghorband 0100 Zana Khan Jalrez Geographic Projection Datum: WGS 84 Andar Chahar Dara Sayd Abad Giro Baghlani Jadid Wardak Surkhi Parsa Zarghun Shahr Jaghatu Tala Wa Barfak Chaki Wardak Ghazni Dahana-I- Ghori Dila Waza Khwa Shekh Ali Qalay-I- Zal Hazrati Sultan Ab Band Shibar

¯ Ghazni Aybak Qarabagh Day Mirdad Khulm Nawa Muqur Nawur Balkh Ruyi Du Ab Gelan Kahmard Shamulzayi Khuram Wa Sarbagh Bamyan Hisa-I- Awali Bihsud Kaldar Markazi Bihsud Atghar Jaghuri Samangan Shahjoy Bahrami Shahid(Jaghatu) Marmul Dara-I- Suf Mazar-E-Sharif Malistan Maruf Quetta ! Chahar Kint Nahri Shahi ! Panjab Ajristan Shinkay Qalat

Arghandab Bamyan Waras Zabul Balkh Sholgara Shortepa UZBEKISTAN Kishindih Yakawlang Daychopan Arghistan Chimtal Shahristan Dawlat Abad Balkhab Mizan Khas Uruzgan Fayz Abad Sozma Qala Sangcharak Mardyan Chora Tarnak Wa Jaldak Aqcha Lal Wa Sarjangal Qarqin Kandarhar Gizab Sari Pul Spin Boldak Day Kundi Shorabak Uruzgan

Mingajik Sari Pul Tirin Kot Shah Wali Kot ! Nesh Kohistanat Jawzjan Khamyab Sayyad Arghistan Kijran Daman Khakrez Shibirghan Arghandab Dihrawud Khwaja Du Koh Chaghcharan Shahidi Hassas Darzab Ghorak Reg Bilchiragh Panjwayi Kajaki Pasaband Qaramqol Maywand Sangin Maymana Khani Chahar Bagh Dawlat Abad Faryab Andkhoy Kohistan Baghran Shirin Tagab Ghor Musa Qala Pashtun Kot Khwaja Sabz Posh Nahri Sarraj Lashkar Gah Qaysar Jawand Taywara Naw Zad Almar Shahrak Garmser Naway i Barakzayi Washer Tulak Reg Chishti Sharif Nad Ali Hilmand Ghormach Gulistan Pur Chaman Badghis Qadis Saghar Murghab Farsi Obe Dishu Muqur Bakwa Qalay-I- Naw Khash Rod Ab Kamari Karukh Bala Buluk Pashtun Zarghun Kushki Kuhna Nimroz Chakhansur TURKMENISTAN Farah ! Farah Injil ! Kushk Hirat Hirat Guzara Shindand Pusht Rod Zaranj Khaki Safed Kang Chahar Burjak Adraskan Zinda Jan Gulran Kohsan Qalay-I-Kah Shib Koh Anar Dara Lash Wa Juwayn Ghoryan IRAN Afghanistan Opium Rapid Assessment Survey, 2008: Expected opium poppy harvest time Source: MCN - UNODCNote: Afghanistan The boundaries Opium and Rapid names shown Assesment and the Survey, designations used 2008 on this (http://www.unodc.org/unodc/en/crop_monitoring.html) map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations.

15 Afghanistan Opium Winter Rapid Assessment Survey, February 2008

Map 6: Dry opium prices at the farm-gate (US$/kg) 35°N 30°N INDIA INDIA No data 50-88 97-131 141-146 International boundaries Provincial boundaries Legend Dry opium price (USD/Kg) TAJIKISTAN TAJIKISTAN Kunar Nuristan Badakhshan PAKISTAN PAKISTAN Nangarhar 70°E 70°E Laghman Khost Ta k h ar Panjshir Kapisa Km Paktya Kabul Logar Parwan Paktika Kunduz Baghlan 50 Wardak 0 100 200 Ghazni Geographic projection, Datum WGS 84 ¯ Samangan Bamyan Balkh UZBEKISTAN UZBEKISTAN Zabul Sari Pul Day Kundi Uruzgan Jawzjan Kandahar 65°E 65°E Ghor Faryab Hilmand Badghis Farah TURKMENISTAN TURKMENISTAN Nimroz Hirat IRAN IRAN 35°N 30°N Afghanistan Opium Rapid Assessment Survey, 2008: Dry opium price (USD/Kg) Source: MCN - UNODC AfghanistanNote: The Opium boundaries Rapid and Assessment names shown Survey, and 2008 the designations used on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations.

16 Afghanistan Opium Winter Rapid Assessment Survey, February 2008

Map 7: Sampling frame and selected villages 35°N 30°N ! ! INDIA INDIA ! ! ! ! ! ! <=1500 m >1500mand<=2500m >2500 m 2007 Selected villages ! Provincial boundaries International boundaries !! ! Badakhshan ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Village sampling frame based on elevation zones Legend ! ! ! !! ! ! ! ! ! TAJIKISTAN TAJIKISTAN ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! 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IRAN IRAN 35°N 30°N Afghanistan: Opium Rapid Assessment Survey, 2008 village sampling frame and selected villages Source: Government of Afghanistan -Note: The National boundaries monitoring and system names shown implemented and by the UNODC designations used on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations.

17 Afghanistan Opium Winter Rapid Assessment Survey, February 2008

Map 8: Security situation in surveyed villages (as reported by respondents) 35°N 30°N INDIA INDIA Very bad Poor Good Very good No data International boundaries Provincial boundaries ! ! ! ! ! Legend Security situation TAJIKISTAN TAJIKISTAN ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !! ! Kunar ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Nuristan ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Badakhshan ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! PAKISTAN ! ! ! ! ! PAKISTAN ! ! ! ! ! ! Nangarhar ! ! 70°E 70°E ! Laghman ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Khost ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Ta k ha r Panjshir ! !! ! ! ! ! ! Kapisa ! ! Km ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Paktya ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Kabul ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Logar ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Parwan ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Paktika ! ! Kunduz ! ! ! Baghlan ! ! ! ! 50 ! ! ! ! ! Wardak ! 0 100 200 ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Ghazni ! ! ! !! ! Geographic projection, Datum WGS 84 ! ! ¯ Samangan ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Bamyan ! !! ! Balkh ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! UZBEKISTAN ! ! ! ! ! UZBEKISTAN Zabul ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !! ! ! ! Sari Pul ! Day Kundi ! ! ! ! ! ! Uruzgan ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !! ! Jawzjan ! ! ! ! !! ! !! ! ! ! Kandahar ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !! ! 65°E 65°E ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Ghor ! ! ! ! ! Faryab ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Hilmand ! ! Badghis ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Farah ! ! ! ! ! ! ! TURKMENISTAN ! TURKMENISTAN Nimroz ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Hirat ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! IRAN IRAN 35°N 30°N Afghanistan Opium Rapid Assessment Survey 2008: Security situation in surveyed villages Source: MCN - UNODC AfghanistanNote: The Opium boundaries Rapid and Assessment names shown Survey, and 2008 the designations used on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations.

18 Afghanistan Opium Winter Rapid Assessment Survey, February 2008

Map 9: Expected cultivation trend vs. security situation (as reported by UNDSS) Kunar INDIA INDIA Badakhshan Nuristan Nangarhar Laghman Khost Ex treme r is k High ri sk Medium risk Low ris k Panjshir Kapisa Provincial boundaries District boundaries International boundaries Poppy free or Strong decrease (Above 50%) Decrease (Between 10% and 50%) Increase (Between 10% and 50%) Stable (Between -10% and 10%) Strong increase (Above 50%) Paktya TAJIKISTAN TAJIKISTAN Logar Kabul Cultivation change Security Paktika Parwan Baghlan Peshwar Wardak Ghazni Nuristan Kunar Bamyan Samangan Fayz Abad Badakhshan Nangarhar Laghman Jalalabad Khost Panjshir km Ta k h a r Kapisa Kabul PAKISTAN PAKISTAN Logar Paktya Kunduz Baghlan Paktika Parwan 125 Wardak Gh azn i Balkh Samangan Geographic Projection Datum: WGS 84 0250 Quetta Mazar-E-Sharif Zabul UZBEKISTAN UZBEKISTAN Bamyan Uruzgan Day Kundi Jaw zjan Sari Pul Fa ryab Kandahar Gh or Hilmand Badghis TURKMENISTAN Fa ra h TURKMENISTAN Nimroz Hirat IRAN IRAN orescrt map:Source security UNDSS Source: MCN - UNODCNote: The Afghanistan boundaries Opium Rapid and Assesment names shown Survey, and 2008 the (http://www.unodc.org/unodc/en/crop_monitoring.html) designations used on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations. Security map (as at 10 December 2007) Afghanistan Opium Rapid Assessment Survey, 2008: Expected opium poppy cultivation trends (by province)

19 Afghanistan Opium Winter Rapid Assessment Survey, February 2008

2. Findings by province NORTH-EASTERN REGION

BADAKHSHAN PROVINCE

Interviews with village headmen indicated that cultivation levels in 2008 may decrease as a result of effective information campaigns against poppy cultivation before the 2008 cultivation season and extensive eradication during the previous season. In 2007, opium poppy cultivation in Badakhshan decreased by 72 per cent. ORAS results indicate a decrease in cultivation in the main poppy cultivation areas, namely the Darayim and Argo valleys and the Faizabad, Jurm, Kishm and Baharak districts. However, this will depend on the level of cultivation during the coming spring.

Opium poppy cultivation details:

Cultivation in 2007 (hectares) 3,642 Type of cultivation Irrigated and rain-fed Projected trends in 2007-2008 Decrease Cultivation level Moderate Planting time Autumn/spring Expected main harvest time End of June Security situation Good Dry opium price (US$/kg) 81

Governor of Badakhshan addressing ORAS Opium poppy stocks captured by CN police in training programme for Surveryors Badakhshan province

20 Afghanistan Opium Winter Rapid Assessment Survey, February 2008

TAKHAR PROVINCE

Respondents in all districts reported no change in opium poppy cultivation in 2007. Takhar lies on a major trafficking route to Tajikistan (via the Chah Ab, Yangi Qala, Darqad and Rustaq districts).

Opium poppy cultivation details:

Cultivation in 2007 (hectares) 1,211 Type of cultivation Irrigated and rain-fed Projected trends in 2007-2008 Stable Cultivation level Low Planting time Autumn/spring Expected main harvest time Mid-June Security situation Very good Dry opium price (US$/kg) 81

21 Afghanistan Opium Winter Rapid Assessment Survey, February 2008

EASTERN REGION

NANGARHAR PROVINCE

Despite an increase of 285 per cent in opium poppy cultivation in Nangarhar province in 2007 as compared to 2006, a sharp decrease is expected in all main opium poppy-growing districts in 2008 as a result of the strong eradication effort in 2007 and an effective awareness campaign by the Government.

Opium poppy cultivation details:

Cultivation in 2007 (hectares) 18,739 Type of cultivation Irrigated Projected trends in 2007-2008 Strong decrease Cultivation level Low Planting time Autumn Expected main harvest time Mid-April Security situation Good Dry opium price (US$/kg) 117

KUNAR PROVINCE

Respondents indicated that the poppy cultivation level in Kunar would remain low in 2008. In 2007, cultivation decreased by 52 per cent compared to 2005. Bar Kunar, Dangam and Nari were the main cultivation areas in 2007.

Opium poppy cultivation details:

Cultivation in 2007 (hectares) 446 Type of cultivation Irrigated and rain-fed Projected trends in 2007-2008 Decrease Cultivation level Low Planting time Autumn Expected main harvest time Mid-April Security situation Poor Dry opium price (US$/kg) 106

22 Afghanistan Opium Winter Rapid Assessment Survey, February 2008

LAGHMAN PROVINCE

Opium poppy cultivation in Laghman province is expected to decrease and remain at low levels in 2008. In 2007, Alishing and Qarghayi were the main poppy-cultivating districts, which may also show a decrease in cultivation in 2008.

Opium poppy cultivation details:

Cultivation in 2007 (hectares) 561 Type of cultivation Irrigated and rain-fed Projected trends in 2007-2008 Decrease Cultivation level Low Planting time Autumn Expected main harvest time Beginning of April Security situation Good Dry opium price (US$/kg) 110

NURISTAN PROVINCE

Nuristan province is expected to remain opium poppy-free in 2008, as in 2007. Nuristan is located at a high elevation, and most planting, if any, will begin in mid-March. The Du Ab and Nurgaram districts reported possible small-scale poppy cultivation in 2008.

Opium poppy cultivation details:

Cultivation in 2007 (hectares) 0 Type of cultivation Irrigated and rain-fed Projected trends in 2007-2008 Poppy-free Cultivation level Negligible Planting time Autumn Expected main harvest time Beginning of April Security situation Very poor Dry opium price (US$/kg) N/A

23 Afghanistan Opium Winter Rapid Assessment Survey, February 2008

NORTHERN REGION

BAGHLAN PROVINCE

Cultivation in Baghlan province decreased considerably in 2007 (by 76 per cent as compared to 2006), and may decrease further in 2008. Cultivation will remain at a low level.

Opium poppy cultivation details:

Cultivation in 2007 (hectares) 671 Type of cultivation Irrigated and rain-fed Projected trends in 2007-2008 Decrease Cultivation level Moderate Planting time Autumn/spring Expected main harvest time End of May to mid-June Security situation Very good Dry opium price (US$/kg) 70

BAMYAN PROVINCE

The majority of farmers in Bamyan province prefer not to cultivate opium poppy. Bamyan is therefore expected to maintain its poppy-free status in 2008.

Opium poppy cultivation details:

Cultivation in 2007 (hectares) 0 Type of cultivation Irrigated and rain-fed Projected trends in 2007-2008 Poppy-free Cultivation level Nil Planting time Spring Expected main harvest time Late July Security situation Very good Dry opium price (US$/kg) N/A

24 Afghanistan Opium Winter Rapid Assessment Survey, February 2008

BALKH PROVINCE

Opium poppy cultivation decreased sharply in Balkh province from 2005 to 2006, and the province became poppy-free in 2007. According to ORAS results, Balkh will remain poppy-free in 2008. This trend may be attributable to successful campaigns by the Government against poppy cultivation.

Opium poppy cultivation details:

Cultivation in 2007 (hectares) 0 Type of cultivation Irrigated and rain-fed Projected trends in 2007-2008 Poppy-free Cultivation level Nil Planting time Autumn Expected main harvest time End of April Security situation Very good Dry opium price (US$/kg) N/A

25 Afghanistan Opium Winter Rapid Assessment Survey, February 2008

FARYAB PROVINCE

Opium poppy cultivation was reported to increase from 2005 to 2006, remaining at a stable level in 2007. ORAS results suggest that cultivation in Faryab will decrease sharply in 2008; however, trends may remain stable in the Kohistan, Qaramqol, Qaysa, Qurghan and Shirin Tagab districts.

Opium poppy cultivation details:

Cultivation in 2007 (hectares) 2,866 Type of cultivation Irrigated and rain-fed Projected trends in 2007-2008 Strong decrease Cultivation level Moderate Planting time Autumn Expected main harvest time Mid-May Security situation Very good Dry opium price (US$/kg) 69

KUNDUZ PROVINCE

Kunduz province is neither a major nor a traditional opium poppy-growing region. In 2007, Kunduz was poppy-free; no change is expected in 2008.

Opium poppy cultivation details:

Cultivation in 2007 (hectares) 0 Type of cultivation N/A Projected trends in 2007-2008 Poppy-free Cultivation level Nil Planting time Autumn Expected main harvest time Mid-May Security situation Good Dry opium price (US$/kg) N/A

26 Afghanistan Opium Winter Rapid Assessment Survey, February 2008

JAWZJAN PROVINCE

Jawzjan province was not a significant opium poppy-growing area until 2002. From 2002 to 2006, however, cultivation increased sharply. In 2007, cultivation decreased by 46 per cent, and a further large decrease is expected in 2008.

Opium poppy cultivation details:

Cultivation in 2007 (hectares) 1,085 Type of cultivation Irrigated and rain-fed Projected trends in 2007-2008 Strong decrease Cultivation level Low Planting time Autumn and spring Expected main harvest time Late May Security situation Very good Dry opium price (US$/kg) N/A

SAMANGAN PROVINCE

Samangan was poppy-free in 2008. Although small-scale opium poppy cultivation was observed during the ORAS, the province may remain poppy-free if eradication is carried out and no further cultivation takes place during the coming spring.

Opium poppy cultivation details:

Cultivation in 2007 (hectares) 0 Type of cultivation Rain-fed and irrigated Projected trends in 2007-2008 Increase Cultivation level Very low Planting time Spring Expected main harvest time End of July Security situation Very good Dry opium price (US$/kg) 50

27 Afghanistan Opium Winter Rapid Assessment Survey, February 2008

SARI PUL PROVINCE

Opium poppy cultivation decreased dramatically in 2007, by 88 per cent compared to 2006. Little change is expected during 2008; however, this will depend on the extent of cultivation during late March.

Opium poppy cultivation details:

Cultivation in 2007 (hectares) 260 Type of cultivation Irrigated and rain-fed Projected trends in 2007-2008 Stable Cultivation level Very low Planting time Spring Expected main harvest time Late June Security situation Very good Dry opium price (US$/kg) 67

28 Afghanistan Opium Winter Rapid Assessment Survey, February 2008

CENTRAL REGION

GHAZNI PROVINCE

Ghazni has been poppy-free since 2006. ORAS results suggest that the province may remain poppy- free in 2008.

Opium poppy cultivation details:

Cultivation in 2007 (hectares) 0 Type of cultivation Irrigated Projected trends in 2007-2008 Poppy-free Cultivation level Nil Planting time Spring Expected main harvest time Late July Security situation Very poor Dry opium price (US$/kg) N/A

KHOST PROVINCE

In 2007, Khost was poppy-free. Although small-scale cultivation was observed during the ORAS, results suggest that Khost may remain poppy-free in 2008.

Opium poppy cultivation details:

Cultivation in 2007 (hectares) 0 Type of cultivation Irrigated Projected trends in 2007-2008 Poppy-free Cultivation level Nil Planting time Spring Expected main harvest time Late May Security situation Poor Dry opium price (US$/kg) N/A

29 Afghanistan Opium Winter Rapid Assessment Survey, February 2008

LOGAR PROVINCE

Most villages in Logar province do not cultivate opium poppy. This trend is not expected to change in 2008.

Opium poppy cultivation details:

Cultivation in 2007 (hectares) 0 Type of cultivation N/A Projected trends in 2007-2008 Poppy-free Cultivation level Nil Planting time Spring/autumn Expected main harvest time May/June Security situation Very good Dry opium price (US$/kg) N/A

PAKTIKA PROVINCE

Paktika province has been poppy-free since 2006; the same trend is expected in 2008.

Opium poppy cultivation details:

Cultivation in 2007 (hectares) 0 Type of cultivation N/A Projected trends in 2007-2008 Poppy-free Cultivation level Nil Planting time Spring Expected main harvest time June Security situation Poor Dry opium price (US$/kg) N/A

30 Afghanistan Opium Winter Rapid Assessment Survey, February 2008

PAKTYA PROVINCE

Paktya province has been poppy-free since 2006; the same trend is expected in 2008.

Opium poppy cultivation details:

Cultivation in 2007 (hectares) 0 Type of cultivation Irrigated Projected trends in 2007-2008 Poppy-free Cultivation level Nil Planting time Spring Expected main harvest time June Security situation Good Dry opium price (US$/kg) N/A

PARWAN PROVINCE

Parwan was poppy-free in 2007 and is expected to maintain the same status in 2008. Opium poppy cultivation was reported for the first time in the province in 2004 (1,310 ha). Cultivation was negligible in 2005, and only 124 ha of poppy were cultivated in 2006.

Opium poppy cultivation details:

Cultivation in 2007 (hectares) 0 Type of cultivation Irrigated Projected trends in 2007-2008 Poppy-free Cultivation level Nil Planting time Spring Expected main harvest time Late June Security situation Good Dry opium price (US$/kg) N/A

31 Afghanistan Opium Winter Rapid Assessment Survey, February 2008

KAPISA PROVINCE

Although Kapisa was not a major opium poppy-growing province until 2006, cultivation increased by 196 per cent in 2007. In 2008, cultivation may decrease somewhat.

Opium poppy cultivation details:

Cultivation in 2007 (hectares) 835 Type of cultivation Irrigated Projected trends in 2007-2008 Decrease Cultivation level Low Planting time Autumn/spring Expected main harvest time Late May/early July Security situation Good Dry opium price (US$/kg) N/A

WARDAK PROVINCE

Wardak has been poppy-free since 2006, and is expected to remain so in 2008.

Opium poppy cultivation details:

Cultivation in 2007 (hectares) 0 Type of cultivation Irrigated Projected trends in 2007-2008 Poppy-free Cultivation level Nil Planting time Autumn/spring Expected main harvest time Late May/early July Security situation Poor Dry opium price (US$/kg) N/A

Fields were under snow during ORAS in central zone

32 Afghanistan Opium Winter Rapid Assessment Survey, February 2008

SOUTHERN REGION

KANDAHAR PROVINCE

Cultivation levels remained unchanged at around 12,500 ha in 2005 and 2006, but increased sharply in 2007 (by 32 percent). A further strong increase is expected in the Daman, Ghorak and Zhari districts in 2008. Cultivation in the Maruf and Maywand districts may also increase. Overall, opium poppy cultivation in Kandahar is expected to increase in 2008.

Opium poppy cultivation details:

Cultivation in 2007 (hectares) 16,615 Type of cultivation Irrigated Projected trends in 2007-2008 Increase Cultivation level Very high Planting time Autumn Expected main harvest time Beginning of May Security situation Poor Dry opium price (US$/kg) 146

Poppy farmers in Kandahar province during ORAS interview

33 Afghanistan Opium Winter Rapid Assessment Survey, February 2008

HILMAND PROVINCE

A steep increase in opium poppy cultivation was observed in Hilmand in 2006, followed by a further sharp increase (48 per cent) in 2007, as a result of which Hilmand accounted for 52 per cent of total opium poppy cultivation in Afghanistan in 2007. ORAS results indicate that cultivation will remain stable in 2008. Hilmand is also the most important province in terms of heroin processing and trafficking.

Opium poppy cultivation details:

Cultivation in 2007 (hectares) 102,770 Type of cultivation Irrigated Projected trends in 2007-2008 Stable Cultivation level Very high Planting time Autumn Expected main harvest time Beginning of May Security situation Very poor Dry opium price (US$/kg) 119

All of the villages in Hilmand that were visited during the ORAS reported poppy cultivation in 2008.

URUZGAN PROVINCE

Uruzgan is one of Afghanistan’s major traditional opium poppy-growing provinces. Cultivation increased from 4,605 ha in 2005 to 9,703 ha in 2006, but remained stable at 9,204 ha in 2007. ORAS results indicate that there may be an increase in opium poppy cultivation in 2008.

Opium poppy cultivation details:

Cultivation in 2007 (hectares) 9,204 Type of cultivation Irrigated Projected trends in 2007-2008 Increase Cultivation level Very high Planting time Autumn Expected main harvest time Mid-May Security situation Very poor Dry opium price (US$/kg) 102

34 Afghanistan Opium Winter Rapid Assessment Survey, February 2008

ZABUL PROVINCE

The ORAS predicts no change in opium poppy cultivation in Zabul province in 2008. In 2007, poppy cultivation in the province decreased by 50 per cent, which interrupted an increasing trend observed since 2005. Zabul province is one of the poorest areas of Afghanistan, and a high level of migration from the province to other areas of Afghanistan is reported.

Opium poppy cultivation details:

Cultivation in 2007 (hectares) 1,611 Type of cultivation Irrigated Projected trends in 2007-2008 Stable Cultivation level Moderate Planting time Autumn Expected main harvest time Mid-May Security situation Very poor Dry opium price (US$/kg) 117

35 Afghanistan Opium Winter Rapid Assessment Survey, February 2008

WESTERN REGION

HIRAT PROVINCE

Hirat was not a major opium poppy-growing province until 2003, but from 2003 to 2006, around 2,000 ha of opium poppy was cultivated each year. Cultivation decreased by 33 percent in 2007 and is expected to decrease further in 2008.

Opium poppy cultivation details:

Cultivation in 2007 (hectares) 1,525 Type of cultivation Irrigated Projected trends in 2007-2008 Decrease Cultivation level Moderate Planting time Autumn/spring Expected main harvest time Late May/late June Security situation Very good Dry opium price (US$/kg) 141

FARAH PROVINCE

Opium poppy has been cultivated in all districts of Farah province since 2004. Cultivation in the province decreased sharply from 2005 to 2006, but increased in 2007 to a record level of 14,865 ha (an increase of 92 per cent). Respondents expect a further increase in 2008. A strong increase in cultivation has been observed in the districts of Bakwa, Bala Buluk, Farah, Khaki Safed, Pur Chaman and Pusht Rod in particular.

Opium poppy cultivation details:

Cultivation in 2007 (hectares) 14,865 Type of cultivation Irrigated Projected trends in 2007-2008 Increase Cultivation level Very high Planting time Autumn Expected main harvest time Early May Security situation Poor Dry opium price (US$/kg) 131

36 Afghanistan Opium Winter Rapid Assessment Survey, February 2008

NIMROZ PROVINCE

Cultivation is expected to show a strong increase in 2008, particularly in the Khash Rod district. The year 2005 was marked by a record increase in cultivation from 115 ha to 1,690 ha, and a further increase was observed in 2006. Cultivation level has increased by a record 233 per cent in 2007. Nimroz lies at the border with Iran and Pakistan, and is therefore one of the major trafficking provinces for the export of Afghan opium.

Opium poppy cultivation details:

Cultivation in 2007 (hectares) 6,507 Type of cultivation Irrigated Projected trends in 2007-2008 Strong increase Cultivation level Very high Planting time Autumn Expected main harvest time Mid-April Security situation Good Dry opium price (US$/kg) 129

GHOR PROVINCE

ORAS results indicate an increase in cultivation in Ghor province. Agriculture in Ghor is limited to very narrow valleys, on account of the province’s difficult terrain and harsh weather conditions. Ghor is one of the main opium-trafficking provinces.

Opium poppy cultivation details:

Cultivation in 2007 (hectares) 1,503 Type of cultivation Irrigated Projected trends in 2007-2008 Increase Cultivation level Moderate Planting time Spring Expected main harvest time Late June Security situation Very poor Dry opium price (US$/kg) N/A

37 Afghanistan Opium Winter Rapid Assessment Survey, February 2008

BADGHIS PROVINCE

ORAS results suggest an increase in poppy cultivation in 2008. Cultivation levels have risen since 2005, following a dramatic increase from 152 ha in 2002 to 4,219 ha in 2007.

Opium poppy cultivation details:

Cultivation in 2007 (hectares) 4,219 Type of cultivation Irrigated and rain-fed Projected trends in 2007-2008 Increase Cultivation level High Planting time Spring Expected main harvest time Mid-June Security situation Very poor Dry opium price (US$/kg) 88

ORAS training in the western region

38 Afghanistan Opium Winter Rapid Assessment Survey, February 2008

3. METHODOLOGY The Opium Rapid Assessment Survey, including training and deployment, was conducted from 10 December 2007 to 14 January 2008 by 82 local field surveyors. It was jointly supervised by the Ministry of Counter-Narcotics (MCN) and UNODC. The surveyors were selected on the basis of a written test, their experience in conducting opium poppy surveys, knowledge of local customs and their acceptance by local communities.

Sampling framework The surveyors conducted structured interviews with the headmen of selected villages in all provinces. A total of 469 villages in 265 districts were surveyed across all provinces. Opium poppy cultivation is most successful at altitudes below 1,500 m, where it is significantly more widespread than in areas of higher elevation; opium poppy cultivation above 2,500 m is comparatively rare. In view of the uneven distribution of opium poppy cultivation at different elevations, a stratified sampling method was used to select the sample villages. The villages in the sampling frame were divided into three groups (strata) according to their elevation:

Group 1: Villages located at an elevation of less than 1,500 m Group 2: Villages located at elevations between 1,500 m and 2,500 m Group 3: Villages located at an elevation of more than 2,500 m

Villages were selected from each group using a systematic random selection technique. The total sampling ratio was 1.5 per cent. The design and size of the sample facilitate the establishment of cultivation trends; the sample is not designed for calculating quantitative areas or production estimates. In addition to the sample villages, the surveyors, using their knowledge of the local situation, visited other areas in the province to complement their assessment both of opium poppy cultivation trends and the security situation throughout the province.

Surveyor training Until 2006, all surveyors were provided with ORAS training in Kabul. For the 2007 and 2008 ORAS, and as part of a capacity-building exercise for national staff, survey coordinators, coordinators of individual provinces and regional survey assistants were trained in Kabul over a four-day period. They in turn trained surveyors in their respective regions. The extension of survey training sessions to the regional level is one of the milestones that have been reached in building national capacity to conduct opium poppy surveys. Training in all regions was supervised by technical staff from ICMP, Kabul. During the training period, a total of 82 surveyors and nine survey coordinators were trained in the use of the survey form and survey techniques by local UNODC staff in the southern, central, eastern, western, north-eastern and northern regions. Data collection Opium poppy cultivation is illegal in Afghanistan, and is considered to be forbidden under Islam. Given the sensitive nature of the issue, data collection is difficult and can be dangerous. Surveyors are selected from different regions of Afghanistan through a very careful selection process. UNODC and MCN regional offices and coordinators recruit surveyors according to survey specifications and the surveyors’ skills. Most of the surveyors selected already have experience in conducting UNODC surveys. Surveyors were trained in techniques for approaching local community members and conducting interviews. Following intensive theoretical and practical training, they were deployed to the field,

39 Afghanistan Opium Winter Rapid Assessment Survey, February 2008 where they interviewed headmen of villages and conducted other survey-related activities. UNODC and MCN coordinators monitored data quality and the progress of the survey closely. Fortunately, the surveyors did not encounter any security problems.

ORAS training in Balkh province Farmers interview in central region

Debriefing At the end of the survey, surveyors were debriefed by survey coordinators, reporting on their findings in the areas they had visited and providing an assessment, inter alia, of various factors thought to influence opium poppy cultivation; the security situation; pressure from the Government concerning survey reports; difficulties encountered in conducting the survey; the level of control exercised by Governors over their respective provinces; the presence of anti-Government elements and the resulting impact on opium poppy cultivation; corruption, and; levels of opium poppy and cannabis cultivation. Debriefing facilitates a greater understanding of opium poppy cultivation and the socio-political and other factors that determine cultivation trends, and provides useful guidance in analysing survey data.

40