Mt Roskill By-Election Before Christmas?
Total Page：16
File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb
HUGO Assessing the economic and political environmentvision in New Zealand Confidential to September 30 2016 HUGO members Mt Roskill by-election before Christmas? Page 2 Assuming sitting Labour MP Phil Goff wins the Auckland mayoral election, he is expected to resign from Parliament almost immediately, triggering a by-election in his Mt Roskill seat before Christmas. That will be a mighty challenge to a govt entering the last year of its third term, contesting a safe Labour seat, but National did win the party vote there in 2014. RMA reform – consensus or a dangerous game? Page 3 By agreeing to work with three pro-development business lobbies on the future of environmental law, the Environmental Defence Society is taking one of its boldest moves in its history as a voice of principle and reason in the debate about the balance between environmental and economic benefits. Prod Com report on tertiary education Page 4 The media focus has been on its proposal to reimpose interest on student loans, but the Productivity Commission’s interim report on tertiary education goes far deeper in its criticisms of the way incentives currently work in the tertiary system. Tidying up ahead of 2017 Page 2 The govt is trying to tidy up or, where necessary, put on ice progress on contentious political issues as it heads towards Christmas and then an election year in which its primary focus will be to ensure it has choices when it comes to governing partners. That means being open to working with both NZ First and the Maori Party. James Shaw takes finance portfolio Page 4 With minimal fuss, Greens co-leader James Shaw has taken over the crucial economic policy- making role from Julie Anne Genter, who gained the finance role unexpectedly after Shaw beat Kevin Hague to the co-leadership in May last year. Dairy stabilising in positive territory, NZD outlook strengthens Page 5 Fonterra has announced projected payouts to farmer shareholders that are comfortably above Dairy NZ’s average breakeven point, suggesting the sector is emerging now from three very difficult seasons in a row. That should underpin the strong kiwi dollar. Labour targets ‘middle NZ’, rather than ‘the centre’ Page 3 Labour’s election campaign team leadership has been announced. The campaign will target “middle NZ”, the party says – a term apparently distinct from “the centre” that leader Andrew Little has dismissed as a “hollow” concept. Text finalised September 30 Contact: [email protected]. No responsibility is accepted for acts or omissions by clients as a result of items herein. © The Hugo Group 2016 HUGOvision September 30 2016 POLITICS AND POLICY Gloss coming off the govt, but National, as if they needed it, that next year will be a very tight electoral fight and even winning the who is benefiting? largest share of the vote will be only the beginning. Two recent polls and the Herald’s “Mood of the Then almost certainly will come negotiations with Board Room” survey have all suggested that NZ First and the Maori Party to form a govt. For a to a greater or lesser extent some of the gloss is sense of what the Maori Party may demand, we have beginning to come off the govt. The Herald’s survey invited party co-leader Marama Fox to the Hugo of corporate leaders listed the Auckland housing breakfasts in October. We will invite Winston Peters situation as the major concern, gave Bill English to breakfasts early next year. plaudits, but marked John Key down as potentially Such negotiations would likely be triangular, and squandering opportunities to show leadership therefore difficult and lengthy. English says that he and to invest in infrastructure to support urban expects the Maori Party to have a very ambitious growth while interest rates are low. Infrastructure policy agenda if their support is required to form inadequacies also featured as a key weakness in the a Government. Freshwater rights would be high World Economic Forum Global Competitiveness on that agenda – a bellwether issue for National’s Index, which otherwise put NZ at 13th – an heartland rural constituency. improvement of 10 places since 2012 – in the 2016/17 survey published this week. The trouble is that NZ First – as it demonstrated on a recent series of Treaty settlement bills – opposes The govt could hardly have missed that house prices the very foundation of Maori Party policy, which is – once a sure winner because of the wealth effect on separate Maori participation in the decision-making existing homeowners – is becoming a double-edged process. While the revived campaign against Maori sword. However, English is confident there is a ‘favouritism’ by Don Brash has attracted liberal coming wave of new house building which, like the media ridicule, Peters knows this is fertile territory, especially in regional electorates. Curia public poll average That being so, NZ First’s agenda may be easier for Na?onal Labour Greens NZ First National to agree to. They will want changes to 60% the Reserve Bank Act more along the lines of the Australian regime, which still makes inflation the 44.3% paramount target; limits to immigration; tighter 50% controls on foreign investment; and an inquiry into the trading banks similar to the one being proposed 40% by Labor in Australia. 30.3% 30% Pre-Xmas Mt Roskill by- election? 20% Phil Goff apparently intends to resign from 12.4% Parliament almost as soon as he is elected as Mayor of Auckland, which would mean the Mt Roskill by- 10% election is likely to take place before the end of the 9.6% year. 0% The govt could win the seat. On paper it wins the Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul 14 14 14 14 15 15 15 15 16 16 16 party vote in the electorate but more importantly it will not want to be seen to go backwards. It will be an completion of several key roading projects including important test of its position in the wider electorate the Waterview tunnel, will give Aucklanders a sense and also of the strength of its campaign machine in of momentum next year. Agreeing to put more Auckland, which has not distinguished itself during funding to the Urban Rail Loop – now costing an the local government elections. eye-watering $3.4b or $1b per kilometre to build – is This also explains why legislation like the Local all part of the political investment being made in the Government Amendment Bill is being held up in its country’s most influential electorate. select committee to make it more electorally palatable The past month has seen the Prime Minister mostly and why the PM is suggesting the Electricity overseas and political activity at a low level. Authority’s proposed transmission charges either be Nevertheless, the warning signs are there reminding delayed or possibly reviewed. 2 HUGOvision September 30 2016 POLITICS AND POLICY RMA reform – is the next chapter months “because the Government does not know emerging now? how to proceed.” “Two special days of meetings scheduled for next The real significance of the consortium that the week were cancelled yesterday, because cabinet Property Council, the New Zealand Council for has yet to make up its mind,” Infrastructure Development and the Auckland said Parker in a Employers and Manufacturers Association have statement this week, breaching the usual protocol formed with the Environmental Defence Society is that committee members don’t discuss the progress that they have all agreed to sit around the same table of legislation. to talk about the long-term future of the Resource It is inevitable that once a refreshed RMA debate starts Management Act. in earnest after the next election, it will also focus on That may mean replacement with separate urban the funding of Auckland’s infrastructure. The NZCID planning and environmental laws, but it need not is critical of the lack of urgency on the part of the govt necessarily mean that. in resolving the funding issues surrounding the $4b shortfall in transport infrastructure funding identified The EDS is holding the pen on the series of three by the Auckland Transport Alignment Project. reports on the RMA’s future that the consortium Without that being resolved, says the Council, it is is preparing, with a third report due late this year pointless talking about greenfields on possible approaches to reform. In doing so, the development at Auckland’s extremes Labour’s 2017 peak environmental lobby group appears to hope or intensification within its current campaign structure it can influence its three partners, all economic boundaries. Labour Party general secretary development lobbyists, to hold fast to the core The somewhat peremptory rejection Andrew Kirton, will manage RMA principles of ‘sustainable development’ and the party’s 2017 election of the findings of the EDS research hard ‘environmental bottom lines’. campaign while Phil Twyford by acting Environment Minister, will be campaign chair. Despite The latest report’s significance is that it argues Maggie Barry, has already raised a leader Andrew Little’s rejection the RMA has failed to deliver sufficiently for few eyebrows in Auckland. as ‘hollow’ his former leader the environment – a flipside argument to the Helen Clark’s advice that development lobby’s long-held view the RMA In contrast, Labour has endorsed NZ elections are won ‘in the centre’, the campaign will operates as a handbrake on economic growth. That is the report, and their Environment spokesperson David Parker target ‘middle NZ’, says party subtle positioning by the EDS, but it is a potentially president Nigel Haworth. dangerous game. The latest report argues strongly supports the way forward outlined that implementation and institutional weaknesses are by the four organisations.