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Gold Book New Car September 2016 gold book New Car This is the editorial commentary to accompany the cap hpi guide to future residual values for new cars. This month the commentary has been restructured into the following sections, but the content and level of detail remains broadly the same as before. 1. gold book forecast accuracy 2. Forecast changes this month 3. Market overview 4. gold book methodology 5. Reforecast calendar 2016/2017 In August, Andrew Mee took over the role of Senior Forecasting Editor (UK) from Dylan Setterfield who has moved into the role of International Forecasting Manager. Andrew has previous experience of residual value forecasting with leading leasing companies, and has spent the last few months working alongside Dylan prior to taking up the role. Dylan will continue to be involved for a further transition period and so we will ensure that forecasting process and accuracy will be unaffected. The other gold book team members (Jeff Knight, James Bisatt, and Rob Hester) will continue in their roles as before. 1. gold book Forecast Accuracy: As gold book matures since its introduction in December 2013, we have the data to enable us to measure our results in terms of forecast accuracy. The accuracy target widely demanded by our customers is to be within 5% of actual values and we are pleased that gold book has generally been within these limits at both the 12 month and 24 month points that we are currently able to measure. 12 month results Since measurement started our 12 month forecasts have averaged -0.8% less than black book across all vehicle ids, and the most recent results show August 2015 12/20 gold book forecasts being -1.9% less than August 2016 12/20 black book. 10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 Jul-15 Jul-16 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jun-15 Jun-16 Oct-15 Apr-16 Apr-15 Feb-15 Sep-15 Feb-16 Dec-14 Dec-15 Aug-15 Aug-16 Nov-15 Mar-15 Mar-16 May-16 -4 May-15 -6 -8 -10 Upper Target Lower Target New Car Total The latest 12/20 forecast differences for the major vehicle sectors are outlined below: Ave GB Sector Diff% City Car 7.4% Executive -3.0% Lower Medium -0.6% MPV -3.6% Supermini 0.4% SUV -5.4% Upper Medium -3.0% Grand Total -1.9% We remain within our general customer target of +/-5% across most of the major sectors. City Car has remained outside target, but is now the only sector where the average difference between current black book and our previous forecast is noticeably outside of these limits. We had previously assumed that these vehicles would deflate by more than the rest of the used market, but (as mentioned in previous editorials) manufacturer forced registration activity was stronger and continued for longer than we anticipated, with large volumes of 1616 plate vehicles already available in the used market. This comes as somewhat of a surprise, given that forced registration activity on these vehicles seemed to have been much reduced at the end of 2015. Current YOY% deflation for City Cars at 12/20 remains at around -10%. SUV is now marginally outside target and will be reviewed as scheduled next month. 24 month results Since measurement started our 24 month forecasts have averaged -3.2% less than black book across all vehicle ids, and the most recent results show August 2014 24/40 gold book forecasts being -4.5% less than August 2016 24/40 black book. 10.0% Overall Average 24/40 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0% -10.0% Overall results Although this remains the early stages, we continue to be extremely pleased with these initial results. We are taking advantage of our new methodology to implement a ‘virtuous feedback loop’, with each element of the forecast examined to determine how best to further improve the accuracy of our future value forecasts, while also reducing variation. Our used market deflation (YOY%) assumptions, differentiated by age, vehicle sector and fuel type are still broadly in line with the current market at the vast majority of points. We will continue to publish these results and share them with our customers. 2. Forecast changes this month: New model ranges added this month: Alfa Romeo Giulia, Audi A5, Audi S5, Audi S4, Bentley Mulsanne, Citroen Dispatch Combi, Ferrari 488 Spider, Hyundai Ioniq, Mahindra e2o, Kia Optima, Mazda Mazda3, Porsche Panamera, Peugeot Expert Combi, Toyota C- HR, Toyota GT86 and Toyota Proace Verso. There are numerous additions to the following model ranges: Aston Martin V12 Vantage, DS DS4, Fiat 500, Ford Edge, Kia Ceed, Kia Optima, Land Rover Range Rover, Land Rover Range Rover Sport, Mercedes-Benz V Class, Nissan X-Trail, Smart ForFour, Smart ForTwo, Ssangyong Korando, Tesla Model S, Toyota Rav4, Volvo S90, Volvo V60 and Volvo V90. Sectors reforecast this month This month, we publish our most recent reforecasts for the City Car and Supermini sectors. The overall impact of the changes at 36/60 is set out below: Sector Underlying Forecast Change Seasonal Element Observed Change Aug vs July City Car Petrol -1.8 +3.5 +1.7 City Car Diesel -2.8 +3.0 +0.2 Supermini Petrol -1.9 +3.3 +1.4 Supermini Diesel -3.0 +2.7 -0.3 The overall reductions in underlying forecasts for these sectors are broadly in line with the deterioration seen in black book values for the sectors since the last review. For many model ranges, this deterioration is comparable to expectations of model aging and seasonality; but for some ranges the deterioration has been up to -7% worse that expectation. Forced registrations of some models have continued, with the surplus of late plate vehicles on the market continuing to push prices down. As a result we have made further reductions in forecast values, although in some cases we have retained a small level of positive adjustment under the assumption that some level of recovery is likely. In many more cases previous positive editorial adjustments have been removed – movements thought to be short term in nature have now been proved to be sustained over a longer period. Diesel premiums in these sectors continue to decrease in line with our previous expectation. We are still forecasting premiums for diesel over the equivalent petrol for most models at 36/60, but there are some exceptions where the relative oversupply of diesel has pushed values to below that of petrol. Details of all assumptions and adjustments are available in gold book iQ. Other forecast changes this month Aside from the sector reforecasts, there have been a number of changes this month and these include changes to the following ranges: Changes due to model re-introduction Porsche 911 GT3 reforecast from latest black book data Changes to walk up (subsidiary) relationships: Renault Kadjar Petrol – correction for EDC transmission Ssangyong Korando Diesel – increase for ELX trim Seasonality changes In line with our gold book methodology, all other model ranges which are outside of the sector reforecasts and outside of the other changes listed above, have had their values moved forward from month to month by seasonal factors which are differentiated by sector and fuel type and are based on analysis of historical black book movements. Overall impact on forecasts The overall average change between the new gold book forecast and the previous gold book forecast is approximately +3% at 36/60, which is broadly in line with normal expectations of the seasonal change between August to September, incorporating lift for the new registration plate. Details of all values revised by ±5% can be found via the following link: Monthly Reports Improved commentary detail in gold book iQ Following feedback from customers of our gold book iQ product, which gives unparalleled transparent insight into the assumptions used to produce our forecasts, we have added more detail into the commentary for each model range reforecast in sector reviews. We will continue to review and enhance commentary in future months as we carry out each sector review. 3. Market Overview: During August, HM Treasury published the new independent medium term forecasts for the economy, all of which have been updated during the last two months. Analysis of this data shows it to be in line with our own view, with a slight reduction in GDP in 2017 but recovering thereafter. Not all ages and sectors of vehicle are directly impacted by GDP, and in some cases this will be offset by lower future registration volumes. Therefore we are planning to conform to our original timetable of sector reforecasts and do not consider it necessary to embark on wholesale reforecasts. Following the vote to leave the EU, it is important to remember that this is just the beginning of a complicated process which will take at least 2 years to conclude with us actually ceasing to be an EU member, probably considerably longer. There were many untruths being peddled by both sides of the argument during the referendum campaign and many negative economic forecasts published which were based on us leaving the free trade area. This is highly unlikely. We expect some mildly negative effects on the economy in the short to medium term, due to reduced business capital expenditure and investment, but consumer spending to continue to drive a stable economy. More details are available through the blog release on our website and in an interview on Motor Trade Radio: http://blog.cap.co.uk/en/cap-extras/impact-of-the-referendum-result http://blog.cap.co.uk/en/cap-extras/saturday-morning-podcast [24/06/16 – 15m 30s onwards] As predicted, we saw something close to a return to normal depreciation patterns for 2014 and 2015, after 2012 and 2013 were characterised by unusually low levels of depreciation due to low levels of supply of used cars.
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