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Haier Electronics Group Co 6 March 2017 Asia Pacific/China Equity Research Household Durables Haier Electronics Group Co., Ltd. (1169.HK / 1169 HK) Rating (from NEUTRAL) OUTPERFORM Price (02-Mar-17, HK$) 14.70 UPGRADE RATING Target price (HK$) (from 13.50) 18.20 Upside/downside (%) 23.8 Mkt cap (HK$/US$ mn) 41,044 / 5,287 Upgrade to OUTPERFORM on better outlook + Enterprise value (Rmb mn) 26,005 Number of shares (mn) 2,792 cheap valuations Free float (%) 43.8 52-wk price range (HK$) 15.02-11.04 ■ We upgrade Haier to OUTPERFORM on: (1) strong manufacturing sales, ADTO-6M (US$ mn) 5.8 driven by mix upgrade and home appliance industry recovery; (2) improving Target price is for 12 months. ICS earnings outlook on channel restructuring and operating leverage; (3) Research Analysts accelerating logistics sales on strengthened relationship with Alibaba; and (4) Raymond Ching 852 2101 7852 attractive valuation plus stronger EPS growth of 16%/12% in 2017E/18E vs [email protected] flat in 2016E. Our forecasts are 6%/4% above consensus for 2017/18. Carey Shi 852 2101 7729 ■ Mix upgrade and strong market expected to drive product sales. We see [email protected] accelerating product sales on stronger industry demand in 2017 after the recent industry price hike, the delayed positive impact from the strong property cycle in 2016 and rising replacement demand. While the potential property slowdown may affect industry sales mainly in 2018 (on ~9 months’ delay impact), we see it largely offset by the replacement cycle for products that were bought between the 2008 and 2013 government subsidy programmes. Haier is also more aggressive in launching gas heat water heaters and front load washing machines at higher selling prices to gain market share and lift ASP. ■ We expect integrated channel service (ICS) sales to accelerate to 10% from flat in 2016 on: (1) stronger market demand and channel reform bearing fruit in 1H16 and (2) faster logistics sales (14% of ICS and 10% of group) with stronger cooperation with Alibaba after it transfers stakes in Jan-2017. We expect ICS margin to improve on efficiency enhancement and scale increase. ■ Cheap valuation with better earnings outlook. Valuation looks cheap at 11x 2017E/18E P/E, below its historical average 13x P/E. We raise our earnings by 4%/6% in 2017/18E and lift our TP to HK$18.2 (from HK$13.5) based on SOTP. We assign 15x for its manufacturing business, 10x for the ICS business, and 20x for the logistics business. Share price performance Financial and valuation metrics Year 12/15A 12/16E 12/17E 12/18E Revenue (Rmb mn) 62,826.1 62,972.7 69,440.9 75,044.3 EBITDA (Rmb mn) 3,398.8 3,492.6 4,032.8 4,510.1 EBIT (Rmb mn) 3,139.5 3,246.6 3,761.6 4,217.1 Net profit (Rmb mn) 2,703.0 2,728.7 3,130.8 3,503.3 EPS (CS adj.) (Rmb) 0.97 0.97 1.13 1.26 Change from previous EPS (%) n.a. (0.7) 5.3 7.1 Consensus EPS (Rmb) n.a. 0.98 1.07 1.21 EPS growth (%) 8.2 (0.2) 16.2 11.9 The price relative chart measures performance against the P/E (x) 13.5 13.5 11.6 10.4 MSCI CHINA F IDX which closed at 6,635.57 on 02/03/17. Dividend yield (%) 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.2 On 02/03/17 the spot exchange rate was HK$7.76/US$1 EV/EBITDA (x) 8.1 7.5 6.1 5.1 Performance 1M 3M 12M P/B (x) 2.43 2.11 1.81 1.57 Absolute (%) 7.3 10.5 22.5 ROE (%) 20.7 17.0 16.8 16.2 Relative (%) 3.7 3.1 0.7 Net debt/equity (%) Net Cash Net Cash Net Cash Net Cash Source: Company data, Thomson Reuters, Credit Suisse estimates DISCLOSURE APPENDIX AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT CONTAINS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS, LEGAL ENTITY DISCLOSURE AND THE STATUS OF NON-US ANALYSTS. US Disclosure: Credit Suisse does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. 6 March 2017 Focus charts and tables Figure 1: Trading at 11x P/E, below historical Figure 2: We expect its earnings and revenue to average; earnings growth drives re-rating pick up in 2017/18E from 2016 (Rmbmn) (%) PE x % 120,000 25 50 25 44.5 20 90,000 40 20 15 10 20.2 30 15 60,000 20.4 20.1 5 20 10 15.1 0 12.2 30,000 10.5 10 5 -5 1.0 0 -10 0 0 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Net revenue Net revenue YoY chg - RHS Net profit YoY chg - RHS earnings growth(LHS) PE (RHS) Source: Bloomberg, Credit Suisse estimates Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates Figure 3: Positive property sales in 2016 should Figure 4: We expect replacement needs to increase drive solid market growth in 2017 but negative to from 2017 as sales during government subsidies 2018 programmes should enter into replacement cycle 9,000 20.0% Rmb 100 mn Government 25.0% 22.5% 8,000 subsidies 15.0% 7,000 20.0% 17.3% 15.0% 6,000 10.0% 10.1% 5,000 10.0% 6.5% 5.0% 5.4% 4,000 5.0% 1.2% 3,000 0.0% 0.0% 2,000 -5.0% -3.0% -5.0% -5.0% 1,000 -7.6% -10.0% 0 -10.0% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E Market size (LHS) Growth YoY(RHS) Source: CEIC, Credit Suisse estimates Source: CEIC, Credit Suisse estimates, CMM, IOL Figure 5: We expect market growth to pick up in 2017, driven by ASP increase, rising replacement Figure 6: We use SOTP to value the company at needs and positive property growth in 2016 HK$18.2 Volume Market Replacement New ASP change + = growth Category PE multiple Valuation (HKD) needs demand Water heater 15x 8.6 2014 1.1% 0.4% 0.5% 2% Washing machine 15x 3.8 2015 1.8% -0.2% -1.0% 1% ICS (exclude logistics) 10x 4.6 2016 2.2% 0.7% 0.5% 3% Logistics 20x 1.2 2017E 2.7% 1.3% 4.0% 8% 18.2 2018E 2.3% -0.8% 2.5% 4% Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates Source: Credit Suisse estimates Haier Electronics Group Co., Ltd. (1169.HK / 1169 HK) 2 6 March 2017 Haier Electronics Group Co., Ltd. (1169.HK / 1169 HK) Price (02 Mar 2017): HK$14.70; Rating: (from NEUTRAL) OUTPERFORM; Target Price: (from HK$13.50) HK$18.20; Analyst: Raymond Ching Income Statement (Rmb mn) 12/15A 12/16E 12/17E 12/18E Company Background Sales revenue 62,826 62,973 69,441 75,044 Haier Electronics Group is a home appliances manufacturer Cost of goods sold 52,833 52,687 57,862 62,492 covering washing machines, water heaters, and integrated channel EBITDA 3,399 3,493 4,033 4,510 services. It is a subsidiary of Qingdao Haier (600690.SS). EBIT 3,140 3,247 3,762 4,217 Net interest expense/(inc.) (193) (234) (287) (314) Blue/Grey Sky Scenario Recurring PBT 3,344 3,480 4,048 4,531 Profit after tax 2,734 2,784 3,239 3,625 Reported net profit 2,703 2,729 3,131 3,503 Net profit (Credit Suisse) 2,703 2,729 3,131 3,503 Balance Sheet (Rmb mn) 12/15A 12/16E 12/17E 12/18E Cash & cash equivalents 10,244 11,410 11,796 13,669 Current receivables 4,971 5,381 5,844 6,286 Inventories 4,399 4,261 4,616 5,143 Other current assets 3,673 3,564 3,737 4,051 Current assets 23,288 24,616 25,993 29,150 Property, plant & equip. 3,322 4,221 5,212 6,283 Investments 1,611 1,611 1,611 1,611 Intangibles 531 527 522 516 Other non-current assets 1,545 1,665 1,792 1,926 Total assets 30,297 32,640 35,130 39,486 Current liabilities 13,002 12,890 13,568 14,665 Total liabilities 14,575 14,468 14,047 15,153 Shareholders' equity 14,788 17,237 20,041 23,168 Minority interests 879 935 1,043 1,165 Total liabilities & equity 30,297 32,640 35,130 39,486 Cash Flow (Rmb mn) 12/15A 12/16E 12/17E 12/18E EBIT 3,140 3,247 3,762 4,217 Net interest 0 0 0 0 Tax paid (582) (766) (887) (991) Working capital (295) (291) (328) (204) Our Blue Sky Scenario (HK$) (from 16.00) 20.00 Other cash & non-cash items 267 560 582 633 TP upside – HKD20 – Our upside scenario assumes 2017 EPS to Operating cash flow 2,530 2,750 3,128 3,655 be 5% higher than our base case driven by stronger ICS Capex (1,306) (1,191) (1,307) (1,408) performance and margin expansion. Our TP is based on +1 Free cash flow to the firm 1,224 1,559 1,821 2,248 standard deviation above industry average multiple Investing cash flow (2,373) (1,186) (1,302) (1,403) Equity raised 1 1 0 0 Our Grey Sky Scenario (HK$) (from 11.00) 12.00 Dividends paid (253) (281) (327) (376) TP downside – HKD12 – Our downside scenario assumes 2017 Financing cash flow (402) (399) (1,439) (380) EPS to be 5% lower than our base case on worse than expected Total cash flow (245) 1,165 387 1,873 ICS performance and weaker white good manufacturing sales.
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