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Haier Electronics 4Q16 Retail Sales Improved Equity Research January 6, 2017 Haier Electronics 4Q16 retail sales improved Company Update Maintain BUY What's new Ticker 01169.HK According to CMM data for January~November 2016: CICC investment rating BUY 1) Haier refrigerator retail sales +9% YoY, washing machine Last close HK$12.98 CICC target HK$16.20 +13% YoY, water heater +14% YoY; and, 2) air conditioner +15% YoY, an obvious turnaround compared to 1~3Q16. 52wk price range HK$14.78~10.73 Market cap (bn) HK$36 Daily value (mn) HK$32.32 Comments Shares outstanding (mn) 2,792 4Q16, Haier retail sales clearly improved: 1) Haier has very Free float (%) 100 good high-end products. After digesting technologies from Fisher Daily volume (mn sh) 2.59 & Paykel and Sanyo, Casarte has launched very competitive Business sector Home Appliances & Electronics products that gained market reorganization; and, 2) the consumption upgrade trend is obvious in Tier-1/-2 cities; 01169.HK HSCEI as seen by the large increases in its ASP in Beijing and Shanghai. 118 109 Haier’s weak points (sales & marketing) began to improve: 1) dual managed (by both Qingdao Haier & Haier 100 electronics) channel mode switched and channel efficiency 91 improved; 2) retail-based assessment of dealers, and specialty (%) Value Relative 82 stores, channel inventory turnover efficiency improved; 73 3) products no longer blindly emphasize high-end; since 2H16, Jan-2016 Apr-2016 Jul-2016 Oct-2016 Jan-2017 Casarte is no longer limited to products >Rmb10k (market space too small); the launch of ~Rmb5,000 products puts its products (Rmb mn) 2015A 2016E 2017E 2018E in the price range of Siemens products; 4) increased branding 62,826 62,843 68,173 73,135 through traditional media; and, 5) its product innovation gained Revenue the market’s attention thanks to a report by CCTV. (+/-) -6.4% 0.0% 8.5% 7.3% Net profit 2,703 2,817 3,143 3,521 Outlook: 1) 3Q16, Haier has ended a downturn cycle, which (+/-) 10.5% 4.2% 11.6% 12.0% was mainly caused by channel business contraction and poor EPS 0.97 1.01 1.13 1.26 retail performance; and, 2) in 4Q16, Haier's retail sales are BPS 5.63 6.55 7.59 8.76 expected grow >10%, a significant improvement. DPS 0.10 0.10 0.11 0.13 CPS 1.07 0.42 1.71 0.98 For more details, see our in-depth company report Product competitiveness brought business improvement, published P/E 11.2 11.5 10.6 8.8 December 15, 2016. P/B 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.3 EV/EBITDA 6.2 6.3 5.0 3.9 Dividend yield 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 1.1% Valuation and recommendation ROAA 9.4% 9.1% 9.2% 9.3% We expect 2016/17/18 EPS of Rmb1.01/1.13/1.26 ROAE 19.4% 16.6% 15.9% 15.4% (+4%/+12%/+12%). Maintain BUY and TP at HK$16.2, implying 13x 2017e P/E. Risks Source: Wind, Bloomberg, company data, CICC Research Market demand fluctuates. Wei HE Haiyan GUO Analyst Analyst [email protected] [email protected] SAC Reg. No.: S0080512010001 SAC Reg. No.: S0080511080006 SFC CE Ref: BBH812 SFC CE Ref: AIQ935 Please read carefully the important disclosures at the end of this report CICC Research: January 6, 2017 Financial summary Financial statement (Rmb mn) 2015A 2016E 2017E 2018E Financial ratios 2015A 2016E 2017E 2018E Income statement Growth ability Revenue 62,826 62,843 68,173 73,135 Revenue -6.4% 0.0% 8.5% 7.3% Operating costs 52,833 52,541 56,752 60,949 Operating profit 4.3% 6.2% 12.2% 10.8% Business tax and surcharges 0 0 0 0 EBITDA 4.1% 11.5% 14.1% 12.0% Selling expenses -5,348 -5,342 -5,795 -6,070 Net profit 10.5% 4.2% 11.6% 12.0% Administrative expenses -1,973 -1,948 -2,113 -2,194 Profitability Finance costs -71 -60 -67 -26 Gross margin 15.9% 16.4% 16.8% 16.7% Others -72 -72 -72 -72 Operating margin 5.4% 5.7% 5.9% 6.1% Operating profit 3,403 3,612 4,055 4,494 EBITDA margin 5.7% 6.3% 6.6% 6.9% Non-operating income and expense 12 0 0 0 Net margin 4.3% 4.5% 4.6% 4.8% Profit before income tax 3,344 3,552 3,988 4,468 Liquidity Income tax -609 -693 -798 -894 Current ratio 1.79 2.00 2.01 2.22 Minority interest 32 43 48 54 Quick ratio 1.45 1.70 1.65 1.90 Net profit 2,703 2,817 3,143 3,521 Cash ratio 0.79 0.81 0.94 1.03 EBITDA 3,558 3,966 4,526 5,071 Liability / asset 48.1% 42.7% 41.9% 37.9% Balance sheet Net debt / equity net cash net cash net cash net cash Cash and bank balances 10,244 9,726 12,828 13,699 Return Trade and bill receivables 8,362 10,242 9,364 11,175 RoA 9.4% 9.1% 9.2% 9.3% Prepayments 0 0 0 0 RoE 19.4% 16.6% 15.9% 15.4% Inventories 4,399 3,623 5,043 4,264 Per-share data Other current assets 282 512 402 461 EPS (Rmb) 0.97 1.01 1.13 1.26 Total current assets 23,288 24,103 27,636 29,600 BPS (Rmb) 5.63 6.55 7.59 8.76 Fixed assets and CIP 3,943 5,115 6,169 7,116 DPS (Rmb) 0.10 0.10 0.11 0.13 Intangible assets 7,010 7,836 8,864 9,787 Cash flow per share (Rmb) 1.07 0.42 1.71 0.98 Total non-current assets 0 0 0 0 Valuation Total assets 30,297 31,939 36,501 39,387 P/E 11.2 11.5 10.6 8.8 ST borrowings 86 86 86 86 P/B 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.3 Trade and bill payables 4,090 3,070 4,664 3,641 EV/EBITDA 6.2 6.3 5.0 3.9 8,826 8,908 8,968 9,616 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 1.1% Other current liabilities Dividend yield Total current liabilities 13,002 12,064 13,718 13,344 LT borrowings and bonds payable 1,125 1,125 1,125 1,125 Total non-current liabilities 1,573 1,573 1,573 1,573 Total liabilities 14,575 13,638 15,291 14,918 Shareholders' equity 15,722 18,301 21,210 24,470 Minority interest 879 922 970 1,024 Total liabilities & equity 30,297 31,939 36,501 39,387 Cash flow statement Net income 2,703 2,817 3,143 3,521 Depreciation & amortization 0 0 0 0 Change in working capital 0 0 0 0 Others 32 43 48 54 Cash flow from operations 2,990 1,172 4,769 2,742 Cash inflows from investing activities 0 0 0 0 Cash outflows from investing activities 2,544 1,409 1,385 1,557 Cash flow from investing -2,544 -1,409 -1,385 -1,557 Equity financing 0 0 0 0 Bank borrowings 876 -590 0 0 Others 63 -1,188 -281 -282 Cash flow from financing -750 -281 -282 -314 Foreign exchange gain (loss) 85 0 0 0 Net changes in cash -219 -518 3,102 871 Source: Company data, CICC Research Company description Haier Electronics is a subsidiary of Qingdao Haier. The company manufactures and sells washing machines and water heaters and uses Goodaymart to expand its integrated channel services to sell Haier-brand home appliances. Haier Electronics is orienting towards becoming a leading sales platform. The company will use Goodaymart’s franchise store layout, large service system, and its large-format goods logistics capability to create a O2O model for home furnishings. Please read carefully the important disclosures at the end of this report 2 CICC Research: January 6, 2017 Figure 1: Quarterly revenue and net profit trend 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 Washing machines 6.4% 4.1% 1.5% -6.7% 2.3% -0.1% 2.0% Water heaters 7.3% 1.1% -1.6% -0.4% 8.2% 6.1% 8.7% Service 1.8% -12.8% -13.1% -2.3% -13.3% -3.8% 6.3% Total Revenue 2.5% -11.8% -12.3% -2.8% -11.3% -4.6% 5.4% Net profit attributable to shareholders 15.0% 9.6% 7.7% 10.7% 5.8% 0.4% -2.0% Source: Company announcement, CICC Research Washing machines According to CMM, Haier’s washing machine retail sales +12.7% YoY over October~November, higher than both the industry average of +5.7% YoY as well as its own accumulated retail sales of +3.5% YoY over January~November. Haier’s share of the washing machine market increased by 1ppt over January~November. Figure 2: Washing machine retail (offline) sales monitored by CMM Washing machines 2016.11 2016.10-11 2016.1-11 2015.1-12 Sales YoY Market Share YoY Market Share YoY Market Share YoY Market Share Haier 17.8% 27% 12.7% 28% 3.5% 28% -4.2% 27% Little Swan 6.5% 18% 6.6% 18% 5.0% 17% 6.9% 15% Siemens 24.3% 14% 10.9% 13% 2.3% 14% 4.8% 14% Royalstar -23.0% 1% -23.0% 1% -32.8% 1% 138.9% 1% Midea 17.8% 6% 17.1% 6% 10.8% 6% 12.5% 4% Sanyo 7.8% 7% 2.5% 6% -4.9% 6% -18.7% 7% Panasonic 4.2% 8% -0.3% 8% -2.3% 8% -10.5% 8% Total 10.7% 5.7% -0.4% -1.1% Source: CMM, CICC Research Figure 3: Market shares of offline retail sales of Figure 4: Domestic ASP and YoY growth of washing washing machines by brand machines (Rmb/unit) 2,600 6% Haier 2,333 2,385 2,400 2,250 18% 2,166 5% Midea+Little 2,200 28% 2,002 2,061 Swan 4% 4% 21% 2,000 1% 27% Siemens 5% 3% 1,800 4% 3% Sanyo 1% 1,600 2.04% 3% 3% 2% 8% 2% 8% Panasonic 1,400 1% 1,200 7% Bosch 6% 21% 1,000 0% 13% Royalstar 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 16.1~11 23% 14% Inner circle: 2015 ASP (LHS) ASP YoY (RHS) Outer circle: 16.1~11 Source: CMM, CICC Research Source: CMM, CICC Research Please read carefully the important disclosures at the end of this report 3 CICC Research: January 6, 2017 Refrigerators According to CMM, Haier’s refrigerator retail sales value +9% YoY over October~November, clearly higher than the industry average of +3.1% YoY; as well as beating its own accumulated retail sales of -0.9% YoY over January~November.
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