Chapter 4. Performance of South West Monsoon 2019 Over Madhya

Home , Desaiganj, Kurkheda, Nagpur district

PERFORMANCE OF SOUTH WEST MONSOON 2019 OVER Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha and Chattisgarh

M.L. Sahu, J.K.S. Yadav, Bhawna, Brajesh Kumar Kanaujiya, Ved Prakash Singh, Mamta Yadav, Khushnuma Husain Regional Meteorological Centre, Nagpur

In this Chapter performance of South West Monsoon 2019 over Central India is discussed in detail alongwith suitable case studies. The extreme events associated with heavy to very heavy rainfall in the state has been highlighted.

4.1 Introduction The southwest monsoon winds arrived over Maharashtra & Chhattisgarh on 23rd June. It entered parts of southwest Madhya Pradesh on 24th June and covered major parts of East and West Madhya Pradesh on 2nd July and it covered whole state by 4th July 2019. The withdrawal of the monsoon started on 10th October from northwest Madhya Pradesh and 11th October from east Madhya Pradesh and withdrew from entire region on 14th October 2019. Synoptic features associated with some of the extreme rainfall events and flood situations are discussed below.

4.1.1 Methodology Rainfall data of District rainfall Monitoring Stations (DRMS), Autmoatic Rangauges (ARG), Automatic Weather Stations (AWS) and conventional surface obervatories located in 51 districts have been considered for the study. The tools used for districtwise forecast and nowcast were analysed synoptic products (surface & upper air data charts and change charts), NWP models (short, medium & extended range analysis & forecasts) using models

like WRF (03 km,09 km), GFS(T-1534), GEFS, MME(CFSV2), DWR products like Max (Z), SRI, PPI, PA, Satellite products especially visible, IR-1, IR-2, WV imageries and satellite derived products (CMV, WVW, wind shear, low level convergence & upper level divergence) with the help of RAPID (Real time analysis of product & information dissemination) tools estimation of location of the clouds, area covered by clouds, brightness, temperature & cloud top temperature and their animations. The general features of salient weather systems, their detailed analysis are presented in the succeeding sections.

4.2 Analysis of southwest (SW) monsoon rainfall over east Madhya Pradesh (M. P.) Fig. 4.1 represents districtwise very heavy and extremely rainfall over East Madhya Pradesh during monsoon season in year 2019. Seven districts of East M.P. received very heavy rainfall and one district received extremely heavy rainfall during the season. One district reported extremely heavy rainfall in August (Jabalpur district of East M.P. received the heaviest rainfall i.e. 221.8 mm on 15th August ) & four districts reported very heavy rainfall in the month of September.

Fig. 4. 1. Districtwise very heavy rainfall (115.6-204.4 mm) and Extremly heavy rainfall (>204.5 ) over districts of East M.P. during monsoon 2019

Fig. 4.2 shows districtwise heavy rainfall received by 17 districts of East M.P. during the season. In July 6 districts received heavy rainfall. The highest rainfall of 89.3 mm recorded at Umaria on 6th July. In August, 8 districts received heavy rainfall The highest rainfall of 106 mm was recorded at Narsinghpur on 9th August. In September 10 districts received heavy rainfall. The highest rainfall of 102.4mm recorded at Katni on 9th September.

Fig. 4.2 Districtwise heavy rainfall (64.5-115.5mm) over districts of East M.P. during monsoon 2019

4.3 Analysis of SW monsoon rainfall over West M.P. in year 2019 Fig. 4.3 represents districtwise very heavy & extremely rainfall over West Madhya Pradesh during monsoon season in the year 2019. Thirteen districts of West M.P. received very heavy rainfall. Shajapur district of West M.P. received the heaviest rainfall i.e. 183.5 mm on 28th July) and four districts reported very heavy rainfall in the month of September.

West M.P.

Fig. 4.3 Districtwise very heavy rainfall (115.6-204.4 mm) and Extremly heavy rainfall (>204.5) over districts of West M.P. during monsoon 2019

Fig. 4.4 shows districtwise heavy rainfall received by 28 districts of West M.P. during the season. In June, only one district (Neemuch) and in July, 20 districts received heavy rainfall. The highest rainfall of July month was 111.0 mm recorded at Khandwa on 30th July.

In August, 25 districts received heavy rainfall. The highest rainfall of 114.8 mm recorded at Agar-Malwa on 16th August.

West M.P.

Fig. 4.4. Districtwise heavy rainfall (64.5-115.5mm) over districts of West M.P. during monsoon 2019

4.4 Case studies of heavy rainfall over M.P. during SW monsoon 2019

4.4.1 Analysis for Deep Depression over West M.P. during 06-09 August The monsoon trough at mean sea level passed through Jaisalmer, Jaipur, Jhansi, Siddhi, Daltongang, Burdwan, and thence eastwards to Manipur on 1st August, it passed through Anupgarh, Sidhi, Narnaul, Agra Nowgong, Ambikapur, Sambalpur, Paradip and thence Southeastwards to Eastcentral Bay of Bengal and extended upto 1.5 km above mean sea level on 2nd, it passed through Anupgarh, Narnaul, Etawa, Satna, Ambikapur, Chaibasa and thence to the centre of the deep depression over Northwest Bay of Bengal and extended upto 2.1 km above mean sea level on 7th. A low pressure area formed over north Bay of Bengal and adjoining coastal areas of Bangladesh and associated cyclonic circulation extended upto 7.6 km above mean sea level th on 5 August. It concentrated into a Depression (D) over northwest Bay of Bengal (BoB) off north Odisha - West Bengal coasts in the morning of 6th August. It intensified into a Deep Depression over the same region in the early morning of 7th and crossed north Odisha-West Bengal coasts close to north of Balasore in the afternoon of 7th. It weakened into a D over northeast Chhattisgarh & neighbourhood in the early morning of 8th August, further into a well marked low pressure area over southeast Rajasthan & neighbourhood in the evening of

9th August and into a low pressure area over northwest Arabian Sea and neighbourhood in the evening of 12th. In association with the above synoptic features, Very Heavy to Extremely Heavy Rainfall (in cm/ 12 cm or above) over West M.P. are as given below. 03/08/2019: Bareli (District Raisen) 16. 05/08/2019: Thandla (District Jhabua) 25, Jabot (District Alirajpur) 19, Bhabhra (District Alirajpur) 17, Alirajpur 13. 06/08/2019: Garoth (District Mandsaur) 17.

4.4.2 Analysis for LOPAR over M.P. during 05-11 September 2019 A low pressure area lay over coastal Odisha & neighbourhood with associated cyclonic circulation extended upto 7.6 km above mean sea level from 5th to 7th, it moved over north Chhattisgarh & neighbourhood on 8th, reached Northeast Madhya Pradesh & neighbourhood on 9th, it further shifted to Northeast Madhya Pradesh & adjoining East Uttar Pradesh with the associated cyclonic circulation extending upto 5.8 km above mean sea level on 10th , it moved over North Madhya Pradesh & adjoining Southwest Uttar Pradesh with the associated cyclonic circulation extended upto 4.5 km above mean sea level on 11th .This system moved to North Madhya Pradesh & adjoining Southwest Uttar Pradesh on 12th and again reached over North East Madhya Pradesh and adjoining Southeast Uttar Pradesh on 13th with associated cyclonic circulation extended upto 7.6 km above mean sea level. The eastwest shear zone at lat. 21°N between 3.1 and 7.6 km above mean sea level tilting southwards with height on 5th & 6th , the east-west shear zone remained runs roughly between Lat. 21° to 22°N between 1.5 and 5.8 km above mean sea level on 9th and 10th September.

Chief Amount of Rainfall (10 cm or above) in East M.P. 05/09/2019: Amarwara (District Chhindwara) 13, Gotegaon (District Narsinghpur) 12. 06/09/2019: Amarwara (District Chindwara) 12. 07/09/2019: Nainpur (District Mandla) 11. 08/09/2019: Bichhia (District Mandla) 18, Lanji (District Balaghat) 15, Mandla 13, Malanjkhand (District Balaghat) 12, Kareli (District Narsinghpur) 11, Paraswad (District Balaghat)10 09/09/2019: Seoni-aws (District Seoni) 31, Keolari (District Seoni) 15, Nainpur (District Mandla) 12, Ghansore (District Seoni) 11, Sagar 11, Paraswad (District Balaghat) 11, Rehli (District Sagar)

4.5 South west monsoon-2019 over Vidarbha The southwest monsoon set in over Vidarbha on 22nd June 2019, twelve days after the normal onset date. It further advanced in some more parts of Vidarbha on 23rd June 2019. On 24th June 2019 entire Vidarbha was covered by monsoon. The monsoon withdrew from the entire subdivision on 14th October.

4.5.1 Case study of Heavy Rainfall spell over Vidarbha during 31 August – 07 September Due to active monsoon trough and formation of a low pressure area over West central Bay of Bengal and adjoining Odisha coast during first week of September, a long spell of heavy rainfall for 8 days was observed over various districts over Vidarbha subdivision. On 31st August, the monsoon trough was to the south of its normal position with an embedded cyclonic circulation over north Chhattisgarh & neighbourhood which resulted in heavy rainfall at Chandrapur and Nagpur districts. On 1st September, a cyclonic circulation was present over northwest Bay of Bengal & adjoining areas of West central Bay of Bengal and south Odisha north Andhra Pradesh coasts which concentrated into a low pressure area on 2nd September. On 3rd September, the Low Pressure area was lying over northwest Bay of Bengal & adjoining north Odisha West Bengal coasts. From 4th to 7th September the low pressure area lay over coastal Odisha & neighbourhood. On 8th September, it lay over north Chhattisgarh & neighbourhood. On 9th September, the low pressure area moved towards northeast Madhya Pradesh. In addition to above features, an east-west shear zone was seen in the mid- tropospheric levels across central India from 4th to 7th September. Extremely heavy rainfall was observed over Gadchiroli, Gondia and Nagpur districts during the heavy rainfall spell. Following are the surface charts and satellite images of extremely heavy rainfall days. The surface charts are showing the position of monsoon trough and low pressure area. The satellite images are showing very dense cloud mass over Vidarbha.

Fig. 4.5: Surface charts and satellite images

The Nagpur Radar images of 6th September in fig. 4.6. show intense convective clouds over Nagpur district with reflectivity more than 50 dBZ. Extremely heavy rainfall of 290 mm was recorded at 0830 hrs IST of 7th September at Bhiwapur in Nagpur district. Many stations in Nagpur received heavy to very heavy rainfall.

Fig. 4.6: Nagpur Radar images of 06 September 2019

4.5.2 Discussion It was observed that Vidarbha received more heavy rainfall when the low pressure area was lying over Odisha and neighborhood. When the system moved towards Chhattisgarh, less heavy rainfall was realized over the subdivision. Because of the slow moving low-pressure area over Odisha and neighborhood, persisting monsoon trough over central India and other supporting features (i.e. shear zone), Vidarbha received continuous spell of heavy rainfall during first week of September. Extremely heavy rainfall was realised on 4 days during the spell. On 4th September, Bhamragad in Gadchiroli district recorded 243.3 mm rainfall. Desaiganj in Gadchiroli district recorded 215.5 mm rainfall on 6th September. On 7th, Bhiwapur in Nagpur district recorded 290 mm rainfall. On 8th September, Gondia recorded 208 mm rainfall. Very heavy rainfall was also recorded at various stations over East Vidarbha from 5th to 8th September. From 2nd to 8th September, Gadchiroli district faced continuous spell of heavy rainfall which caused flood situation in the district. According to media reports, few casualties happened because of the rainfall event. Damage to crops was also reported. Fig 4.7 shows the view of a flooded locality after heavy monsoon rains at Bhamragad in Gadchiroli district of Maharashtra.

Fig. 4.7 Flood situation at Bhamragad in Gadchiroli district The rainfall recorded by different districts during the spell is shown in table 4.1 below.

Table 4.1 : Stationwise recorded rainfall Rainfall Rainfall Rainfall Rainfall District/Station District/Station District/Station District/Station (mm) (mm) (mm) (mm) 01.09.2019 06.09.2019 Chandrapur Nagpur Bhandara Gadchiroli Mul 80.5 Narkheda 97.6 Lakhani 95.8 Armori 170 Sindewahi 86.6 Chandrapur Bhamragad 86 02.09.2019 Bramhapuri 81.8 Desaiganj 215.5 Gadchiroli Wardha Dhanora 97.1 Armori 84.3 Gadchiroli 82.1 Kharangha 76.8 Gadchiroli 66.3 03.09.2019 Kurkheda 86.9 Gadchiroli Gondia 07.09.2019 Desaiganj 100 Arjuni Morgaon 65.5 Chandrapur Nagpur Kurkheda 86.4 Nagpur Bramhapuri 134.5 Bhiwapur 290 Umrer 71.4 Nagbhir 104.1 Kamptee 103.2 04.09.2019 Gadchiroli Kuhi 143 Chandrapur Gadchiroli Desaiganj 77.5 Mauda 184 Nagpur Pombhurna 75.3 Ahiri 67.4 Dhanora 78.4 Aerodrome 77.8 Nagpur Bhamragad 243.3 Etapalli 76.6 Saoner 66.8 Kalmeshwar 72.7 Chamorshi 91.5 Gadchiroli 66.8 Umrer 119.6 05.09.2019 Mulchera 67.4 Gadchiroli Amravati Chandrapur Mulchera 66.6 Dharni 90.5 Saoli 87 08.09.2019 Morsi 71.8 Sindewahi 121.5 Gondia Gadchiroli Wardha Amgaon 122.2 Gondia AP 208 Chamorshi 67.8 Arvi 66 Gondia 78.6 Salekasa 92.9 Gadchiroli 163.4 Ashti 79.5 Gadchiroli Kurkheda 67.3 Selu 89 Mulchera 66.6

4.5.3 Remarks

The active monsoon trough with formation of low pressure area over Bay of Bengal off Odisha coast is favourable synoptic situation for extremely heavy rain over Vidarbha. The slow movement of system was responsible for a continuous spell of 8 days of heavy rainfall over Vidarbha. The east-west shear zone was also conducive for the extremely heavy rainfall over Vidarbha. The Radar reflectivity was recorded more than 50 dBZ during the extremely heavy rainfall events.

4.6 South west monsoon-2019 over Chhattisgarh

The normal onset date of monsoon over Chhattisgarh is 10th June. In 2019, the monsoon set in over Chhattisgarh on 21st June. South West Monsoon season ( June – September ) in Chhattisgarh ended with +10% above normal rainfall with 1255.7 mm rainfall against the normal rainfall of 1142.1 mm. The withdrawal of monsoon from Chhattisgarh started on 11th October and it was completely withdrawn from the subdivision on 15th October.

4.6.1 Heavy Rainfall Event over Chhattisgarh

4.6.1.1 Observation and Analysis On 07th August 2019, a Deep Depression was lying near Lat 21.1°N & Long 87.4°E. The monsoon trough at mean sea level was passing through Anupgarh, Narnaul, Etawa, Satna, Ambikapur, Chaibasa and thence to the centre of the Deep Depression over northwest Bay of Bengal and extending upto upto 2.1 km above mean sea level. The synoptic situation is shown in chart of 0300UTC on 07th Aug 2019 and satellite picture of 1200UTC on 07th Aug 2019 are shown in Fig. 4.8

Fig . 4.8 Surface Chart and satellite picture of 07th Aug 2019

4.6.1.2 Results The presence of deep depression and position of monsoon trough,caused the following heavy rainfall at various districts in Chhattisgarh. On 8th August, 3 stations recorded extremely heavy rainfall, 23 stations recorded very heavy rainfall and 40 stations recorded heavy rainfall shown in Table 2. The flood situation in Bastar and Bijapur is shown in Fig. 4.9.

Table 4.2 : Stationwise recorded rainfall on 8th August 2019

District/ Station Rainfall (mm) District/ Station Rainfall (mm) District/ Station Rainfall (mm) Balod Bazar Bastar Bemetara Balod Bazar 72.4 Bakavand 122.8 Bemetara 112.2 Bhatapara 114 Bastanar 170.4 Berla 82 Kashdol 92.4 Bastar 120.1 Saja 106 Pallari 85 Darbha 85.4 Thankhamariya 165 Simga 110 Jagdalpur 179.2 Dantewada Dhamteri Lohandiguda 270.2 Dantewara 80 Kurud 120.6 Tokapal 117.2 Gidam 104.2 Magarlod 113.1 Bijapur Katekalyan 116.3 Janjgir Bhairamgarh 165 Kuakonda 75.2 Champa 65 Bijapur 80.2 Gariaband Dhabhara 67 Bilaspur Chhura 118.3 Jaijaipur 65.6 Bilaspur 154 Deobhog 304 Sakti 66 Masturi 86 Gariaband 75.2 Mahasamund Durg Rajim 131.1 Bagbahara 77 Dhamdha 69.8 Kondagaon Basana 96.2 Durg 80.8 Baderajpur 74.4 Mahasamund 122.2 Patan 128 Makadi 110.5 Pithora 101 Kabirdham Pharasgaon 65.8 Saraipali 74.6 Kawardha 121 Raigarh Raipur Sahaspurlohara 160 Gharghoda 76.3 Abhanpur 165 Pakhanjur 90.5 Kharsiya 130.2 Arang 120.4 Narayanpur Lailunga 80.4 Labhandih 167.8 Narayanpur 109.9 Pusaur 180 Mana 232.2 Orcha 175 Raigarh 110 Raipur 183.8 Rajnandgaon Tamnar 84.8 Sukma Gandai 100 Chhindgarh 95 Khairagarh 67.3 Sukma 77 Manpur 71.1

Fig. 4.9 A view of flood in Bastar(left) and Bijapur (right) districts on 07th August 2019

With +10% above rainfall from normal, Chhattisgarh faced flood situation in the month of July, August and September. In the month of July, on 06th and 07th July Bastar and Dantewada faced flood and from 26th to 31st July Bastar, Dantewada, Bijapur, Kondagaon, Sukma, Narayanpur and Kanker faced flood situation. In August, Dantewada, Sukma, Bastar, Bijapur and Narayanpur districts were in flood situation from 02nd to 10th August. Kondagaon and Raigarh faced flood situation from 07th to 10th August and 08th to 10th August, respectively. From 25th to 27th August, Raigarh and Janjgir faced flood situation. First week of September flood situation occured in Rajgarh, Raipur, Bastar, Dantewada, Sukma, Kanker, Gariyaband, Narayanpur, Balod, Bemetara and Rajnandgaon.

4.6.1.3 Remarks

The Monsoon trough passing through North Chhattisgarh and formation of Depression over North West Bay of Bengal together is very favourable synoptic situation for Heavy to Very Heavy and sometimes exceptionally heavy rainfall over Chhattisgarh region as it was seen on 7th August 2019. Heavy rainfall recorded at most of the places and 3 station recorded exceptionally heavy rainfall in Chhattisgarh.

References:

1. Monsoon Report 2017, IMD Met. by O.P Sreejith, D.S.Pai and M. Mohapatra. 2. Monsoon Report 2016, IMD Met. By P C S Rao, D.S. Pai and S.C.Bhan. 3. Srinivasan,V. Raman and S. Mukharjee “South-West monsoon typical situation over Madhya Pradesh and Vidharbha”, India Met. Department FMU, rep. No. III 3.4, 1971. 4. Monsoon by P.K. Das published by National Book Trust 1989.