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REPUBLIC of ZAMBIA July 2020 – March 2021 Issued in December 2020 FOOD SECURITY SITUATION in ZAMBIA EXPECTED TO

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REPUBLIC of ZAMBIA July 2020 – March 2021 Issued in December 2020 FOOD SECURITY SITUATION in ZAMBIA EXPECTED TO IPC ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY ANALYSIS REPUBLIC OF ZAMBIA July 2020 – March 2021 Issued in December 2020 FOOD SECURITY SITUATION IN ZAMBIA EXPECTED TO Phase 5 0 Phase 5 0 People in Catastrophe People in Catastrophe 1.42M Phase 4 185,000 1.98M Phase 4 325,000 22% of the population People in Emergency 29% of the population People in Emergency Phase 3 1,238,000 Phase 3 1,651,000 People facing high levels People in Crisis People facing high levels People in Crisis of acute food insecurity of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3+) Phase 2 2,170,000 (IPC Phase 3+) Phase 2 2,387,000 People in Stressed People in Stress IN NEED OF URGENT Phase 1 2,941,000 IN NEED OF URGENT Phase 1 2,526,000 ACTION People in food ACTION People in food security security Overview Current Acute Food Insecurity July - Sept 2020 According to the acute food insecurity analysis in Zambia, it is estimated that around 1.42 million people (22% of the analysed population) were facing high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above) between July and September 2020, despite increased crop production in most areas. That includes 1.24 million people in Crisis ycnegremE ni elpoep 000,091 ylraen dna )3 esahP CPI( esahP )3 dna ylraen 000,091 elpoep ni ycnegremE Armyworm, and high maize prices. Although the price of maize has been on a decline since the start of the 2020/2021 consumption year, it still remains above the Stressed (IPC Phase 2). Between October 2020 and March 2021, Zambia’s food security situation is expected to deteriorate, as this Projected Acute Food Insecurity Oct 2020 - March 2021 coincides with the lean season, when more households will rely on the market for food. It is projected that about 1.98 million people (29% of the analysed population) will be facing high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above) and require urgent humanitarian action to reduce food gaps, protect and restore livelihoods and prevent acute malnutrition. The 2020/2021 rainfall season, which coincides with the projected period, has been forecast to be above-normal in most of Southern Africa. Therefore, it is expected that poor households will be able to rely more on labour opportunities for food and income. 1 - Minimal Flooding, however, is also expected to increase, the reby 21 - StressedMinimal 23 - StressedCrisis areas in the north and northeastern parts of the country. 1 - Minimal 34 - CrisisEmergency COVID-19 will likely continue to pose risks to areas close to main urban areas, as cases increase through the country, 2 - Stressed 45 - EmergencyFamine and if the government does not impose restrictions. 1 - Minimal 3 - Crisis 5Ar -eas Famine with inadequate evidence Key Drivers 2 - Stressed 4 - Emergency Areas notwith analysed inadequate evidence 5 - Famine 3 - Crisis Map SyArmboeas lsnot analysed Flooding Erratic Rainfall Maize Prices COVID-19 4 - Emergency Areas with inadequate evidencMap SyUrembobanls settlement Northern and Below-normal rainfall Maize prices Althoughclassificatio COVID-19n northeastern 5 - Famineremain above theAr eas not analysed restrictionUrban settlemenmeasurest were has been experienced classificatioIDPs/other settlementsn areas of Zambia in some parts of Areas with inadequate evidence not strict,classificatio the countryn still despite declinesMap Symbols registeredIDPs/othe jobr settlementslosses and Southern, Central classification Areasin not the analysed beginning Urban settlement Arreducedea receives remittances significant into due to excessive Lusaka, Copperbelt classification of the 2020/2021 huthema countrynitarian food due assis to thetance rains, leading to the and Western Map Symbols (Araccountedea receives for in Psihasegnif classificationicant ) consumption year.IDPs/other settlementspandemic. waterlogging of crops. Provinces. classification humanitarian food assistance Urban settlement (accounted> 25 fo%r in of P hasehouseholds classification meet) 25-50% classification of caloric needs through assistance Area receives significant > 25% of households meet 25-50% REPUBLIC OF ZAMBIA | IPC ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY ANALYSIS 2 According to the acute food insecurity analysis in Zambia, it is estimated that around 1.42 million people (22% of the analysed population) were facing high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above) between July and September 2020, despite increased crop production in most areas. That includes 1.24 million people in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and nearly 190,000 people in Emergency (IPC Phase 4), who require urgent humanitarian action to reduce food gaps, protect and a Fall Armyworm outbreak, and high maize prices. Although the price of maize has been on a decline since the start of During the 2019/2020 agricultural season, Zambia experienced favourable weather conditions compared to the 2018/2019 agricultural season. The season was characterized by above-normal rainfall in most parts of the country, with a number of areas receiving heavy downpours. However, below-normal rainfall was recorded in some parts of Southern, Central Lusaka, Copperbelt and Western Provinces. The country received record breaking rains in Misamfu and Mpulungu, which had cumulative rainfall levels of 2,057 mm and 1,822 mm respectively. Meanwhile, the lowest cumulative rainfall levels were recorded in parts of Southern Province, with Choma recording 401 mm, a 45% deviation from the average. Luapula, Northern, Lusaka, and Southern Provinces, the 2019/2020 agricultural season witnessed a general increase in outbreak of locusts, leading to reduction in crop production. The country produced adequate maize to meet the country’s consumption requirements for the 2020/2021 consumption year (April 2020 - March 2021 season). Maize production increased by 69% to 3,387,469 MT, from the 2,004,389 MT produced last season. At the beginning of May 2020, Zambia had a maize carry-over stock amounting to 179,24 MT, bringing the total maize available for the 2020/2021 consumption year to 3,566,716 MT. With the total national maize requirement (human and animal) at 3,356,617 MT, there is a maize surplus of 210,099 MT. Sorghum increased by about 200% to 20,011 MT, from 6,684 MT in the 2018/2019 agricultural season. The production of millet also increased by 81% to 45,000 MT, from 24,843 MT in the last agricultural season. In Zambia, the number of analysed districts are selected on the basis of a shock having occurred. This year, the number 3) or worse, compared to 1.42 million people in the current period (July-September 2020). 1 - Minimal REPUBLIC OF ZAMBIA | IPC ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY ANALYSIS 3 2 - Stressed 3 - Crisis CURRENT IPC ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY SITUATION 4 - Emergency JULY - SEPTEMBER 2020 5 - Famine Areas with inadequate evidence Key forAreas the not Manalysedap IPCMa pA Scuymbotels Food InsecuriUrbanty settlemen t classification 1 - Minimal IDPs/other settlements 12 -classificatio MStinimalressed n Area 23r eceives- SCtrrisisessed significant humanitarian food assistance (accounted34 - CEmergency rfoisisr in Phase classification) 45 -> EmergencyF25amine% of households meet 25-50% of caloric needs through assistance 5Ar -eas Famine with inadequate evidence > 25% of households meet > 50% Areasof calo wnotithr icanalysed inadequate needs th rough evidenc assistance e MaEvipd SeArynmboceeas L levenots lanalysed Acceptable Map* SyUrmbobanl ssettlement ** classificatioMedium n ***UrHigbanh settlement classificatioIDPScas/otherce evidencer settlementsn due to limited or classificationo humanitanrian access IDPs/other settlements Area receivesclassificatio signnificant humanitarian food assistance Ar(accountedea receives for in Psihasegni fclassificationicant ) humanitarian food assistance (accounted> 25% for in of P hasehouseholds classification meet) 25-50% of caloric needs through assistance > 25% of households meet 25-50% of > calo25%ric of needs households through meet assistanc > 50%e of caloric needs through assistance > 25% of households meet > 50% Evidenceof Lcaloeverlic needs through assistance Evi*denAcecceptabl Leveel ** Medium *** AHcceptabligh e ** MediuScarcem evidence due to limited or *** Hnoig humanitah rian access Scarce evidence due to limited or no humanitarian access Provincial population table for the current period: July to September 2020 Province District Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Phase 4 Phase 5 Phase 3+ #people % #people % #people % #people % #people % #people % Central 422,134 268,550 64 89,315 21 54,846 13 9,423 2 0 0 64,269 15 Copperbelt 124,577 68,517 55 37,373 30 18,687 15 0 0 0 0 18,687 15 Eastern 936,166 505,302 54 250,766 27 133,290 14 46,808 5 0 0 180,099 19 Luapula 931,807 414,741 45 317,110 34 190,353 20 9,603 1 0 0 199,956 21 Lusaka 101,896 44,068 43 35,664 35 20,379 20 1,786 2 0 0 22,165 22 Muchiga 932,429 528,746 57 250,101 27 153,582 16 0 0 0 0 153,582 16 North-Western 322,641 87,192 27 179,498 56 55,951 17 0 0 0 0 55,951 17 Northern 1,377,204 560,815 41 522,342 38 235,413 17 58,634 4 0 0 294,047 21 Southern 684,155 313,864 46 217,741 32 138,366 20 14,184 2 0 0 152,550 22 Western 700,695 148,980 21 269,993 39 236,782 34 44,940 6 0 0 281,722 40 Grand Total 6,533,704 2,940,774 45 2,169,904 33 1,237,649 19 185,377 3 0 0 1,423,026 22 REPUBLIC OF ZAMBIA | IPC ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY ANALYSIS 4 Between October 2020 and March 2021, Zambia’s food security situation is expected Key Assumptions for the project- to deteriorate, as this period coincides with the lean season when more households ed period will rely on the market for food. It is projected that about 1.98 million people will be • Labour Opportunities: Labour oppor- facing high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above) during this period.
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