Article Impact of Past and Future Climate Change on the Potential Distribution of an Endangered Montane Shrub Lonicera oblata and Its Conservation Implications Yuan-Mi Wu , Xue-Li Shen, Ling Tong, Feng-Wei Lei, Xian-Yun Mu * and Zhi-Xiang Zhang Laboratory of Systematic Evolution and Biogeography of Woody Plants, School of Ecology and Nature Conservation, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China;
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[email protected] (X.-L.S.);
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[email protected] (Z.-X.Z.) * Correspondence:
[email protected] Abstract: Climate change is an important driver of biodiversity patterns and species distributions, understanding how organisms respond to climate change will shed light on the conservation of endangered species. In this study, we modeled the distributional dynamics of a critically endangered montane shrub Lonicera oblata in response to climate change under different periods by building a comprehensive habitat suitability model considering the effects of soil and vegetation conditions. Our results indicated that the current suitable habitats for L. oblata are located scarcely in North China. Historical modeling indicated that L. oblata achieved its maximum potential distribution in the last interglacial period which covered southwest China, while its distribution area decreased for almost 50% during the last glacial maximum. It further contracted during the middle Holocene to a distribution resembling the current pattern. Future modeling showed that the suitable habitats of L. oblata contracted dramatically, and populations were fragmentedly distributed in these areas. Citation: Wu, Y.-M.; Shen, X.-L.; As a whole, the distribution of L.