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The Message Matters: the Economy and Presidential Campaigns

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The Message Matters: the Economy and Presidential Campaigns THE MESSAGE MATTERS THE MESSAGE MATTERS THE ECONOMY AND PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGNS Lynn Vavreck princeton university press princeton and oxford Copyright © 2009 by Princeton University Press Published by Princeton University Press, 41 William Street, Princeton, New Jersey 08540 In the United Kingdom: Princeton University Press, 6 Oxford Street, Woodstock, Oxfordshire OX20 1TW All Rights Reserved Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Vavreck, Lynn, 1968– The message matters : the economy and presidential campaigns / Lynn Vavreck. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 978-0-691-13962-3 (hardcover : alk. paper) — ISBN 978-0-691-13963-0 (pbk. : alk. paper) 1. Presidents—United States—Election. 2. Political campaigns—United States. 3. United States—Economic conditions—Public opinion. 4. United States—Politics and government. 5. Public opinion—United States. I. Title. JK528.V38 2009 324.973'092—dc22 2008053045 Dedication page “1952 Vincent Black Lightning” Written by Richard Thompson © 1991 Beeswing Music (BMI) Administered by Bug All Rights Reserved. Used by Permission. British Library Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available This book has been composed in Minion Printed on acid-free paper. ϱ press.princeton.edu Printed in the United States of America 10987654321 To Jeff . but he smiled to see her cry, and said I’ll give you my Vincent to ride. —Richard Thompson, “1952 Vincent Black Lightning” CONTENTS List of Figures xi List of Tables xiii Acknowledgments xvii Prologue xxi CHAPTER ONE Presidential Campaigns 1 Basic Questions 2 What’s Coming 3 PART I CHAPTER TWO How and Why Campaigns Matter 9 The Challenge 10 Something’s Happening in America 11 The Importance of the Economy 12 The Importance of the Media 14 A Theory of Campaign Effects 15 Integrating Literatures 16 Spatial Voting: The Past as Predictor of the Future 18 Retrospective Voting and Campaign Effects 22 Individual-Level Characteristics and Campaign Effects 23 CHAPTER THREE Context Matters: A Campaign Typology 26 Theoretical Predictions 28 A Campaign Typology 31 Clarifying Campaigns 31 Insurgent Campaigns 32 When the Economy Is Mixed 33 Predicting Campaign Types, 1952–2000 35 viii CONTENTS PART II CHAPTER FOUR The Media Disconnect: Media and Candidate Messages 43 Candidates’ Messages and How to Measure Them 46 Advertisements and Speeches 46 Newspaper Coverage 48 Coding the Ads, Speeches, and News Coverage 53 The Content of Modern Campaigns 57 The Media Disconnect 58 CHAPTER FIVE The Message Matters: Candidate-Level Tests of the Theory 67 Clarifying Campaigns: Dominating Economic Discussion 69 Insurgent Campaigns: Issue Selection Matters 71 Stevenson 1952 and 1956: Second Time Same as the First 76 Goldwater 1964: Just Enough Power to Get the Job Done 78 Carter 1980 and Mondale 1984: War through Strength 80 Dukakis 1988: An Unfocused American Dream 82 Insurgent Candidates Making Wise Choices 83 Kennedy 1960: High Hopes 83 Nixon 1968: Freedom from Fear or Racial Appeal? 86 Carter 1976: Outside and Honest 90 Two More Tests of the Theory at the Candidate Level 105 A More Rigorous Test of Compliance 105 Explaining the Errors in Forecasting Models 107 PART III CHAPTER SIX The Message Matters: Microlevel Tests of the Theory 113 Clarifying Candidate Campaign Effects: Do Campaign Messages Shape Voters' Evaluations of Candidates? 115 High Fidelity? 116 Ads: Messages That Matter 120 Clarifying Candidate Campaign Effects: Do Campaign Messages Help Voters Learn about Candidates’ Issue Positions? 123 Measuring Uncertainty 125 Reducing Uncertainty 128 Campaign Learning about the Economy 131 Insurgent-Candidate Campaign Effects: Changing the Debate by Increasing the Importance of Issues 134 CONTENTS ix The Most Important Problem in the Nation 137 Most Important Problem and Vote Choice 140 Insurgent Candidate Campaign Effects: Being Closer to Most Voters on the Insurgent Issue 144 The Difference in Distances 144 Differences in Distances and Vote Choice 151 The Message and Its Effects 155 CHAPTER SEVEN Candidates Creating Context 159 Can Candidates Create the Context? 160 Creating Salience: Finding the Right Insurgent Issue 163 Appendix 167 References 191 Index 199 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 2.1 A Theory of Campaign Effects Derived from the Spatial Voting Model 19 Figure 4.1 Number ofCampaign Advertisements, Speeches, and Articles by Campaign Year 50 Figure 4.2 Percent of Candidate-Based Coverage Compared to All Stories about the Campaign 52 Figure 4.3 Fidelity between Candidate Content and News Coverage: Traits and Foreign Policy 64 Figure 4.4 Fidelity between Candidate Content and News Coverage: Economy and Domestic Policy 65 Figure 5.1 Campaign Messages in Ads, Speeches, and News, 1952 92 Figure 5.2 Campaign Messages in Ads, Speeches, and News, 1956 93 Figure 5.3 Campaign Messages in Ads, Speeches, and News, 1960 94 Figure 5.4 Campaign Messages in Ads, Speeches, and News, 1964 95 Figure 5.5 Campaign Messages in Ads, Speeches, and News, 1968 96 Figure 5.6 Campaign Messages in Ads, Speeches, and News, 1972 97 Figure 5.7 Campaign Messages in Ads, Speeches, and News, 1976 98 Figure 5.8 Campaign Messages in Ads, Speeches, and News, 1980 99 Figure 5.9 Campaign Messages in Ads, Speeches, and News, 1984 100 Figure 5.10 Campaign Messages in Ads, Speeches, and News, 1988 101 Figure 5.11 Campaign Messages in Ads, Speeches, and News, 1992 102 Figure 5.12 Campaign Messages in Ads, Speeches, and News, 1996 103 Figure 5.13 Campaign Messages in Ads, Speeches, and News, 2000 104 Figure 6.1 Fidelity between Candidate Messages and Voters’ Evaluations 118 Figure 6.2 Changes from September to Election Day in Mean Levels of Issue Uncertainty by Candidate Type 126 Figure 6.3 Changes in Mean Levels of Uncertainty from September to Election Day for Clarifying Candidates by Dominant Topics of Campaign Messages 127 xii LIST OF FIGURES Figure 6.4 Changes in Mean Levels of Uncertainty from September to Election Day for Insurgent Candidates by Dominant Topics of Campaign Messages 128 Figure 6.5 Changes in Predicted Probability of Issue Nonplacement over Course of Campaign by Levels of Attention to Campaign in Media 133 Figure 6.6 Mean Percent of Respondents Who Offer Insurgent Issue as Nation's Most Important Problem over Time for Different Classes of Insurgent Candidates 138 Figure 6.7 Change in Insurgent Candidate Vote Share Depending on Whether Respondent Named Insurgent Issue as Most Important Problem in Nation for Each Class of Insurgent Candidate by Levels of Political Information 141 Figure 6.8 Mean Differences in Squared Distances on Insurgent Issues over Campaign Period for Each Class of Insurgent Candidate by Levels of Political Information 146 Figure 6.9 Mean Differences in Squared Distances on Insurgent Issues over Campaign Period for Each Class of Insurgent Candidate by Respondent’s Party Identification 149 Figure 6.10 Predicted Vote for Clarifying Candidate at Varying Differences in Distances on Insurgent Issues by Levels of Political Information 153 Figure 6.11 Change in Predicted Probability of Voting for Insurgent Candidate by Levels of Information for Varying Degrees of Differences in Distances 154 LIST OF TABLES Table 3.1 Percentage of People Believing Foreign Policy and the Economy Are Nation’s Most Important Problem, 1952–2008 29 Table 3.2 A Campaign Typology: Clarifying and Insurgent Campaigns 34 Table 3.3 Range of Economic Forecasting Predictions and Actual Two-Party Vote Share from Four Popular Forecasting Models 37 Table 3.4 Predicted Clarifying and Insurgent Candidates 38 Table 3.5 Predicted Campaign Types by Electoral Success 39 Table 4.1 Campaign Ads, Stump Speeches, and New York Times Coverage by Year and Candidate 51 Table 4.2 Content of Campaign Ads, Speeches, and News Coverage 58 Table 4.3 Dominant Subjects of Campaign Advertisements, Speeches, and News Coverage by Year 60 Table 4.4 Dominant Subjects of Campaign Advertisements, Speeches, and News Coverage by Candidate and Year 61 Table 5.1 Dominant Subjects of Campaign Ads and Speeches by Campaign Type 68 Table 5.2 Theoretical Predictions and Election Outcomes 70 Table 5.3 The Behavior of Clarifying Candidates and Their Electoral Success 71 Table 5.4 The Behavior of Insurgent Candidates and Electoral Success 72 Table 5.5 Theoretical Predictions and Election Outcomes, Strict Test 106 Table 5.6 Forecasting Models, Explained Variation, RMSE, and Accuracy 109 Table 6.1 Do Ads, Speeches, or News Affect Voters’ Evaluations of Candidates? 121 Table 6.2 Effects of Campaign Messages about Economy on Evaluations of Candidates 122 xiv LIST OF TABLES Table 6.3 Reductions in Mean Levels of Issue Uncertainty for Eight Issues 129 Table 6.4 Summary of Individual-Level Campaign Effects for Clarifying Candidates and Messages 156 Table 6.5 Summary of Individual-Level Campaign Effects for Insurgent Candidates and Messages 157 Table A1 Forecasting Models 1952–2000 (Table 5.6) 169 Table A2 Media Attention and Uncertainty (Figure 6.5) 170 Table A3 Media Attention and Uncertainty (Figure 6.5) 171 Table A4 Media Attention and Uncertainty (Figure 6.5) 172 Table A5 Media Attention and Uncertainty (Figure 6.5) 173 Table A6 Mean Percent of Respondents Who Think Insurgent Issue Is Nation’s Most Important Problem by Time of Interview (Figure 6.6) 174 Table A7 Non-Independence of Vote and Whether Respondent Thinks Insurgent Issue Is Nation’s Most Important Problem (Figure 6.7) 175 Table A8 Non-Independence of Vote and Whether Respondent Thinks Insurgent Issue Is Nation’s Most Important Problem (Figure 6.7) 176 Table A9 Non-Independence of Vote and Whether
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