Berea High Philharmonia Performs at National Conference in Detroit
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Party Change, the Left–Right Divide, and International Conflict
Article Journal of Conflict Resolution 1-26 ª The Author(s) 2018 Is There a War Party? Reprints and permission: sagepub.com/journalsPermissions.nav DOI: 10.1177/0022002718772352 Party Change, the journals.sagepub.com/home/jcr Left–Right Divide, and International Conflict Andrew Bertoli1, Allan Dafoe2, and Robert F. Trager3 Abstract Are leaders from certain parties particularly likely to engage in military conflict? This question is difficult to answer because of selection bias. For example, countries may be more likely to elect right-wing leaders if their publics are more hawkish or if the international system is particularly dangerous. Put simply, who comes to power is not random, which makes causal inference difficult. We overcome this problem by using a regression discontinuity design. Specifically, we look at close presidential elections that were essentially “tossups” between two candidates. We find that electing right-wing candidates increases state aggression. We also find that electing candidates from challenger parties makes countries much more likely to initiate military disputes, particularly in the first year of the new leader’s term. This result is consistent with other studies that find that the likelihood of state aggression increases following major leadership transitions. Keywords political leadership, interstate conflict, foreign policy, militarized interstate disputes, domestic politics 1Dickey Center for International Understanding, Dartmouth College, Hanover, NH, USA 2Department of Political Science, Yale University, -
The Message Matters: the Economy and Presidential Campaigns
THE MESSAGE MATTERS THE MESSAGE MATTERS THE ECONOMY AND PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGNS Lynn Vavreck princeton university press princeton and oxford Copyright © 2009 by Princeton University Press Published by Princeton University Press, 41 William Street, Princeton, New Jersey 08540 In the United Kingdom: Princeton University Press, 6 Oxford Street, Woodstock, Oxfordshire OX20 1TW All Rights Reserved Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Vavreck, Lynn, 1968– The message matters : the economy and presidential campaigns / Lynn Vavreck. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 978-0-691-13962-3 (hardcover : alk. paper) — ISBN 978-0-691-13963-0 (pbk. : alk. paper) 1. Presidents—United States—Election. 2. Political campaigns—United States. 3. United States—Economic conditions—Public opinion. 4. United States—Politics and government. 5. Public opinion—United States. I. Title. JK528.V38 2009 324.973'092—dc22 2008053045 Dedication page “1952 Vincent Black Lightning” Written by Richard Thompson © 1991 Beeswing Music (BMI) Administered by Bug All Rights Reserved. Used by Permission. British Library Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available This book has been composed in Minion Printed on acid-free paper. ϱ press.princeton.edu Printed in the United States of America 10987654321 To Jeff . but he smiled to see her cry, and said I’ll give you my Vincent to ride. —Richard Thompson, “1952 Vincent Black Lightning” CONTENTS List of Figures xi List of Tables xiii Acknowledgments xvii Prologue xxi CHAPTER ONE Presidential Campaigns -
LYNN VAVRECK Marvin Hoffenberg Professor of American Politics and Public Policy
LYNN VAVRECK Marvin Hoffenberg Professor of American Politics And Public Policy University of California Los Angeles T 650-305-9424 3351 Bunche Hall W lynnvavreck.com Box 951472 T @VAVRECK Los Angeles, CA 90095-1472 E [email protected] Education Ph.D. Political Science, 1997, University of Rochester Concentrations in American Politics, Political Methodology, and Political Philosophy M.S. Political Science, 1996, University of Rochester M.A. Political Science, 1992, Arizona State University B.S. Political Science, 1990, Arizona State University, Magna Cum Laude Positions, Faculty, and Political Appointments Marvin Hoffenberg Chair in American Politics and Public Policy, 2018 - present Contributing Columnist, The New York Times/The Upshot , April 2014 to present University of California Los Angeles, Professor of Political Science & Communication, July 2014 to present University of California Los Angeles, Associate Professor of Communication, July 2011 to 2014 University of California Los Angeles, Associate Professor of Political Science, January 2009 to 2014 University of California Los Angeles, Assistant Professor of Political Science, July 2001 to 2008 Dartmouth College, Assistant Professor of Government, July 1998 to June 2001 Princeton University, Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Presidential Campaign Reform Task Force, Research Associate and Executive Director, 1997-1998 Office of the Vice-President of the United States of America, Press Advance Representative, The White House, 1991-1992. Grants, Honors, and -
Lynn Vavreck
LYNN VAVRECK Associate Professor of Political Science & Communication Studies O 3351 Bunche Hall University of California, Los Angeles T 310-825-4855 4289 Bunche Hall W lynnvavreck.com Box 951472 F 310-825-0778 Los Angeles, CA 90095-1472 E [email protected] Education Ph.D. Political Science, 1997, University of Rochester. Concentrations in American Politics, Political Methodology, and Political Philosophy M.S. Political Science, 1996, University of Rochester M.A. Political Science, 1992, Arizona State University B.S. Political Science, 1990, Arizona State University, Magna Cum Laude Faculty and Political Appointments University of California Los Angeles, Associate Professor of Communication Studies, July 2011 to present University of California Los Angeles, Associate Professor of Political Science, January 2009 to present University of California Los Angeles, Assistant Professor of Political Science, July 2001 to 2008 Dartmouth College, Assistant Professor of Government, July 1998 to June 2001 Princeton University, Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Presidential Campaign Reform Task Force, Research Associate and Executive Director, 1997-1998 Office of the Vice-President of the United States of America, Press Advance Representative, The White House, 1991-1992. Grants and Awards NSF, Methodology, Measurement, and Statistics Grant, Dual Frame Sampling for Federally Funded Surveys, 2011- 2013 NSF, Program Grant, The Role of Racialization in the Obama Presidency, 2010-11 NSF, Research Meeting Grant, Planning Meeting -
Budapest Panel Biogs (237KB PDF)
Panel member biogs and photos Lynn Vavreck Associate Professor Department of Political Science University of California, Los Angeles Email: [email protected] http://www.polisci.ucla.edu/people/faculty-pages/lynn-vavreck Lynn Vavreck is a faculty member in the Department of Political Science at the University of California, Los Angeles. She received her Ph.D. in Political Science from the University of Rochester in 1998. In addition to UCLA, Dr. Vavreck has worked at the White House, Dartmouth College, and Princeton University. Her research focuses on the effects of political campaigns, particularly the role that stable structural conditions like the nation’s economy and partisanship play in light of campaign activities like candidate advertising, stump speeches, and candidate visits. Dr. Vavreck’s work can be read in The Message Matters: The Economy and Campaign Effects in Presidential Elections (Princeton University Press, forthcoming) and in Campaign Reform: Insights and Evidence (with Larry M. Bartels, Eds., Michigan University Press 2000). Her research has been published in the American Journal of Political Science, British Journal of Political Science, Journal of Politics, Quarterly Journal of Political Science, Political Analysis, American Politics Review, and in various edited volumes. Dr. Vavreck is the recipient of grants from the American Political Science Association, the Joan Shorenstein Center for the Press and Public Policy at Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government, The Rockefeller Center at Dartmouth College, the UCLA Faculty Senate, the Center for Investigation and Research on Civic Learning and Education, Yale’s Institution for Social and Policy Studies, and the Carnegie Corporation. She is the recipient of a 2006 UCLA Faculty Career Development Award recognizing her industrious work on political advertising effectiveness.