Received: 4 January 2019 Revised: 13 May 2019 Accepted: 14 May 2019 DOI: 10.1002/rra.3464 RESEARCH ARTICLE Water temperature drives variability in salmonfly abundance, emergence timing, and body size Heidi E. Anderson1 | Lindsey K. Albertson1 | David M. Walters2 1 Department of Ecology, Montana State University, Bozeman, Montana Abstract 2 U.S. Geological Survey, Columbia Freshwater organisms are disproportionately impacted by climate change and human Environmental Research Center, Columbia, disturbance, resulting in shifts in species' distributions and life histories. We coupled Missouri contemporary and historical datasets documenting physical and ecological variables Correspondence over four decades to quantify changes in the abundance, emergence timing, and body H. E. Anderson, Department of Ecology, Montana State University, Bozeman, MT size of salmonflies (Pteronarcys californica) in the Madison River in southwest Mon- 59717. tana. In contemporary surveys, water temperature was the main driver of salmonfly Email:
[email protected] abundance, emergence timing, and body size. Salmonfly densities were negatively Funding information correlated with summer water temperature, which explained 60% of variation in lar- Montana State University; U.S. Geological Survey Montana Water Center, Grant/Award val density among sites, whereas substrate type played a negligible role. Emergence Number: G16AP00067 occurred 20 days earlier, and male and female exuvia length were 13.8% and 11.3% shorter, respectively, at the warmest site relative to the coolest site (4°C difference). These patterns were supported by historical data. For example, a 1.2°C increase in mean annual water temperature in the Madison River between 1977 and 2017 coin- cided with evidence for upstream range contraction.