Accelerating Development Investments in Famine Response and Prevention

BUSINESS CASE ASSESSMENT FOR Accelerating Development Investments in Famine Response and Prevention

CASE STUDY YEMEN

BUSINESS CASE ASSESSMENT FOR Accelerating Development Investments in Famine Response and Prevention

CASE STUDY YEMEN

REPORT PREPARED FOR THE UNITED NATIONS DEVELOPMENT PROGRAMME ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

The main research and text of the report was conducted by Spyros Demetriou, with coordination support from Bettina Woll (UNDP Crisis Response Unit) and Pedro Conceicao (UNDP Bureau for Policy and Programme Support).

The Business Case Assessments would not have been possible without the contributions and inputs of colleagues at country level (Nigeria, South Sudan, Somalia and Yemen), including Edward Kallon, Samuel Bwalya and Ojijo Odhiambo for Nigeria; Alain Noudehou, Kamil Kamaluddeen, Jean luc Stalon, Biplove Choudhary and Benjamin Moore for South Sudan; Peter de Clercq, George Conway, Usman Qazi and Abdul Qadir for Somalia; Jamie Mcgoldrick, Auke Lootsma, Hyewon Jung and Zarak Jan for Yemen.

Significant contributions to the research and coordination of the report were also made by Bruno Lemarquis, Ruby Sandhu-Rojon, Sophie de Caen, Abdullah Alkulaib, Jane O Yeboah, Celine Moyroud, Lars Jensen, Silke Von Brockhausen, Colin Furness and Xavier Hernandez. Stephanie Julmy, OCHA, also provided inputs and overall guidance to the report.

The report was edited by Kinza Hasan and designed by Laurie Douglas.

Cover photo: © UNDP Yemen

2 BUSINESS CASE ASSESSMENT FOR ACCELERATING DEVELOPMENT INVESTMENTS IN FAMINE RESPONSE AND PREVENTION TABLE OF CONTENTS

4 | 1. Introduction: Yemen on the brink of catastrophe 6 | 2. Understanding famine risk in Yemen 11 | 3. Elements of a comprehensive approach for mitigating famine risk in Yemen 15 | 4. Overview of current famine response efforts in Yemen 19 | 5. Costs and benefits of resilience and recovery interventions 22 | 6. Country-specific recommendations on better integrating humanitarian, development and peace interventions to prevent, mitigate and address famine risk 23 | Annex: Comparative analysis of selected famine prevention interventions in Yemen

Tables 16 | Table 1: Overview of humanitarian interventions targeting famine risks 18 | Table 2: Overview of World-Bank financed projects 21 | Table 3: Economic benefits of selected agricultural improvements in Yemen

CASE STUDY: FAMINE RESPONSE AND PREVENTION IN YEMEN 3 1. INTRODUCTION: YEMEN ON THE BRINK OF CATASTROPHE

Yemen is today in its third year of a complex and brutal conflict, with no end in sight. The human impact of the violence and destabilization it has engendered has been devastating – and is getting worse. Over 20.7 million people (over 75 percent of the population) require humanitarian assistance and protection, with 9.8 million requiring urgent life-saving assistance.

Over 2 million are currently displaced, cut off from of the poorest countries in the Middle East, Yemen their homes, livelihoods and access to services, acute suffered from endemic and widespread poverty and malnutrition has reached emergency levels (with vulnerability, a stagnating economy, dwindling natural close to 3.3 million people affected), and a cholera resources, and weak governance and institutions. The outbreak has further compounded the humanitarian current conflict has pushed Yemen’s already weak situation. In this context, the threat of imminent economic and social institutions and services to the famine is serious and very real. 17 million people (60 brink of total collapse. In this context of increased percent of the population) are food insecure, and of fragility, Yemen is acutely vulnerable to shocks, which these 10.2 million are in IPC phase 3 ‘crisis’ and 6.8 it does not have the capacity to handle. According million are in IPC Phase 4 ‘emergency’ phases.1 These to March 2017 IPC analyses, further disruptions in numbers are growing, and the probability of a slide trade, an escalation of the conflict, or even a change into famine conditions (IPC phase 5) in the most in climatic patterns could tip the country into famine, affected regions is expected to increase over the next with potentially disastrous consequences. six months if current factors driving food insecurity and humanitarian needs are not addressed.2 A key priority of the international community is to prevent food insecurity trends from reaching famine Like South Sudan, Somalia and north-east Nigeria, levels. The nature of the crisis has four principal the factors worsening food insecurity and overall implications for an effective response: humanitarian needs in Yemen are man-made. The main cause is the continuing conflict, which has ■■ Humanitarian life-saving assistance generated large-scale displacement, disrupted continues to play a critical role, and in several economic and social activity, and led to a breakdown governorates been responsible for notable in key systems and institutions necessary to sustain reductions in food insecurity. In the short-term, livelihoods, productivity and essential services. The and given the severity of the situation/trends extent of the damage caused by the conflict has been and scale of needs, this remains the most urgent, made worse by pre-existing weaknesses. As one important and viable course of action.

1 Integrated Phase Classification.Yemen Acute Food Insecurity Situation. March 2017. 2 UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs.Yemen Crisis Overview. 2017. http://www.unocha.org/yemen/about- ocha-yemen#

4 BUSINESS CASE ASSESSMENT FOR ACCELERATING DEVELOPMENT INVESTMENTS IN FAMINE RESPONSE AND PREVENTION YEMEN PROJECTED FOOD INSECURITY SITUATION OVERVIEW (MARCH–JULY 2017)

Source: FEWS NET

■■ At the same time, life-saving assistance alone to ensure their sustainability. These do not is an insufficient measure over the medium- require a full-scale peace agreement, but can term, given that it is limited to addressing the take the form of intermediate decisions and symptoms and not underlying (and worsening) actions taken by parties that have a direct causes of food insecurity and vulnerability. impact on food security, including restrictions Additional resilience and recovery interventions on imports, disruptions of road movements, are needed to complement life-saving assistance functioning of state institutions and economic to: prevent further deepening of vulnerability governance violations. These measures could and food insecurity by increasing resilience and be important steps to a comprehensive political mitigating core drivers of food insecurity over the and peace settlement to the conflict, and medium term; safe-guard gains achieved through broader political and social confidence and life-saving assistance through more durable peacebuilding. forms of support; and prevent critical institutions ■■ Finally, long-term prevention and mitigation and services from collapsing. of famine risk will need to rest in multi- ■■ Over the medium-term, measures to faceted development solutions to Yemen’s strengthen resilience and stabilize conditions underlying structural drivers, which include need to be accompanied by political actions deep-rooted governance, economic, political and that create an appropriate enabling environment environmental deficits and challenges.

CASE STUDY: FAMINE RESPONSE AND PREVENTION IN YEMEN 5 2. UNDERSTANDING FAMINE RISK IN YEMEN

While conflict is undoubtedly the most important factor explaining heightened famine risk in Yemen today, its underlying dynamics are complex and multi-faceted in nature.

Based on the ‘complex emergencies’ model of famine social and governance challenges, rooted in historical causation outlined earlier, three levels of variables and structural antecedents, that led to the unrest of can be identified: primary drivers (structural causes); 2011, and were deepened by the subsequent turmoil secondary drivers (proximate causes) and tertiary and volatility of the transition period (2011-2014). drivers (direct causes)—all of which combine to Together, these deepened the vulnerability and fragil- determine the scale and severity of food insecurity, ity of the country to external and internal shocks, and livelihoods loss and malnutrition and disease, explain why the conflict has had such a devastating and hence famine risk. These are illustrated in the human, economic and institutional impact. In terms of following diagram, and described below: famine causation, the most important factors include:

PRIMARY DRIVERS (STRUCTURAL CAUSES) ■■ Historical patterns of political, social and economic inequality and exclusion; Two main factors explain the worsening humanitarian and food security situation in Yemen: the direct ■■ Widespread poverty and vulnerability consequences and impacts of the ongoing conflict (deepened by the events of 2011-2014); and pre-existing economic, social and institutional ■■ Poor infrastructure and service provision weakness and deficiencies: (which deteriorated sharply after 2011); The conflict in Yemen (2015 to present).The conflict ■■ Weak governance and institutional capacities; in Yemen since 2015 has had a disastrous impact on ■■ Macro-economic stagnation and volatility (with the country’s economic situation, institutional capaci- key macroeconomic indicators in continuous ties, infrastructure and the welfare of its population. Of decline since 2011); these, the most important impacts include: the high and recurring incidence of violence and insecurity ■■ High rates of population growth, which over throughout the country; mass displacement, disrupted time place additional strain on resources and livelihoods and income sources; the widespread services; destruction of public and private infrastructure and ■■ Low levels of food production and associated property; the disruption and collapse of core state dependency on imports, compounded by rapid institutions and services; and economic governance replacement of edible commodity production violations perpetrated by the parties to the conflict. with cash crops such as qat; Pre-existing conditions and challenges. Even before ■■ Environmental degradation and diminishing the crisis, Yemen faced significant political, economic, natural resources.

6 BUSINESS CASE ASSESSMENT FOR ACCELERATING DEVELOPMENT INVESTMENTS IN FAMINE RESPONSE AND PREVENTION SECONDARY (PROXIMATE CAUSES) TERTIARY (DIRECT CAUSES) Food insecurity Population and social impact • Massive population displacement • Decreased HH purchasing power and • Physical violence and trauma; income deaths and injury • Reduced ability to meet minimum • Destabilization of social and food requirements economic relations • Negative coping strategies • Dispossession: loss of access to homes, fields, businesses, jobs • Reduced availability and supply of food and services • Increased price of food PRIMARY (STRUCTURAL CAUSES) • Food production losses due to disruption Disruption of markets, trade of electricity, irrigation and productivity • Most vulnerable unable to purchase food Conflict drivers • Reduced access to markets and due to loss of social safety nets • Insecurity and movement of goods (imports and violence domestic) • Destruction of • Disruption of sectoral value chains Loss of livelihoods infrastructure and productivity • reduced supply of food and • Significant loss of income, productive • Disruption of assets and property state services and commodities (e.g. fuel) institutions • Higher production costs/prices • Economic gover- (commodities and inputs) due to • Unemployment due to business closure/ nance violations constrained supply and additional public sector layoffs costs (tariffs, and ‘war taxes’) • Inaccessibility or loss of productive assets • Decreased private sector investment • Decreased income due to reduced Structural (pre-crisis) • Increased costs of living sectoral productivity) drivers exacerbating • Reduced employment opportunities due conflict impacts to labor market contraction • Political, social and Disruption of public economic inequality service provision and exclusion • Productivity losses due to disruption of • Electricity, sanitation and water essential services • Environmental provision disrupted degradation/ natural • Most vulnerable unable to purchase food resource scarcity • Schools and health facilities due to loss of social safety nets inaccessible • Widespread poverty and vulnerability • Collapse/suspension of social pro- • Unavailability of credit to maintain or tection programmes and services • Poor infrastructure start livelihoods and service provision • Destruction/loss of physical assets • Inability to sustain productivity due to and facilities • Weak governance high input costs and institutional • Lack of staffing for service provision capacities (no civil service salaries) Malnutrition & disease • Economic stagnation and macroeconomic • High vulnerability of displaced to volatility Macroeconomic instability malnutrition and disease due to lack and decline of access to services, unsanitary living • GDP decline (by over 30 per cent) conditions, etc. • Increased inflation (over 30 %) • Reduction of public revenues and • Unavailability or lack of means to expenditures meet minimum food and nutrition • Increased fiscal deficit requirements • Disruption of oil and gas revenues • Disease susceptibility increased due to • Currency depreciation lack of access to clean water sources and • Constrained liquidity (Central Bank sanitary conditions and micro-credit) • Lack of access to medical and health • Closure of private sector business facilities; inability of government services (over 25%) to provide preventive care

CASE STUDY: FAMINE RESPONSE AND PREVENTION IN YEMEN 7 © UNDP Yemen

SECONDARY DRIVERS (PROXIMATE CAUSES) marginally better, while host communities in areas of displacement face the extra strain and cost of The two structural drivers have had systemic (or accommodating the displaced. system-wide) impacts in a number of areas, causing destruction, disruption and instability, which in turn Disruption of markets, trade and productivity. have had a direct ‘knock-on’ effect on individual, Ongoing insecurity and violence, the destruction household and community welfare: of roads, ports, airports and other economic infrastructure, and the intentional blockage or Displacement, injury and loss of social cohesion. high taxation of imports has caused significant The insecurity, violence and destruction of property disruptions to the functioning of markets and the and infrastructure caused by the conflict has had movement of goods. This has resulted in reduced a significant impact on the immediate situation availability and supply of both imported and and prospects of a large part of the population, domestically produced goods (including notably including notably over 3 million people who have food), higher prices for productive inputs and been displaced (with over 2 million still displaced at essential commodities such as fuel, and disrupted present), and lost access to their homes, property economic value chains. Damage to energy and livelihoods. Millions have also been directly generation facilities (estimated at more than affected by physical violence, abuse and trauma, as 50 percent in cities) and constrained availability of well as the loss of social cohesion within communities fuel has led to widespread shortages of electricity, (impacting their collective organizational and impacting both productivity and provision coping capacities, and ability to manage disputes). of services. Market and transportation/trade Physical displacement has created acute vulnerability disruptions have had a severe impact on trading for this population group, who are deprived activity and the productivity of firms, due to both of all livelihoods means and access to services. constrained availability and higher prices of essential Returnees (approximately 1 million at present) fare inputs, and challenges in accessing productive

8 BUSINESS CASE ASSESSMENT FOR ACCELERATING DEVELOPMENT INVESTMENTS IN FAMINE RESPONSE AND PREVENTION assets (e.g. land) and getting goods to market. In of operations funds and led to the reduction and the agricultural sector (which employed over 50 suspension of civil servant salaries. Against a rising percent of the working population), crop production public deficit and low pre-crisis reserves, the Central decreased by 38 percent between 2014-2016,3 with Bank of Yemen has faced a liquidity crisis and has decreases in livestock production of 35 percent and been unable to check the depreciation of the Yemeni fishing between 50-75 percent for the same period. Rial (YER). The worsening economic and business environment, together with conflict-induced market Disruption of public service provision. The and trade disruptions, has forced 25 percent of private conflict has dramatically impacted the provision enterprises to suspend their operations, leading of basic services due to the disruption of supplies to significant unemployment. Poverty, which was and operational funds, damage to facilities and already widespread and increasing prior to the current equipment (estimated at 30% percent of all assets), conflict, is estimated to have increased significantly, insecurity and suspension or reductions in the from 34.1 percent in 2014 to 62 percent in 2016.4 payment of salaries to public servants. In the health sector, almost half of health facilities are non- TERTIARY DRIVERS (DIRECT CAUSES) functional or partially functional, and over 30,000 The conflict and its secondary impacts on the economy health workers have not been paid, interrupting and public service provision have combined to create access to basic healthcare to over 10.4 million people a complex array of factors that are directly causing or (WHO). Provision of water, waste management and irrigation services have also been disrupted, affecting contributing to food insecurity, loss of livelihoods, and over 19 million people and agricultural productivity, increased incidences of malnutrition and disease—all and increasing vulnerability to climatic events (floods of which are core determinants of famine risk: and droughts). Social protection services, which previously provided critical assistance to the poorest, Food insecurity. As of September 2017, 17 million were also temporarily suspended in 2015, deepening people (equivalent to 60 percent of the total vulnerability. Agriculture extension, domestic and population) are considered food insecure and trans boundary livestock disease surveillances have require urgent humanitarian assistance. Of these, been severely disrupted. Public service provision was 10.2 million are in IPC Phase 3 ‘Crisis’ and 6.8 million already constrained prior to the crisis and continued people are in IPC Phase 4 ‘emergency’. Populations in conflict-related disruptions and loss could result in IPC phases 3 and 4 have increased 20 percent since their total collapse, which would place a tremendous June 2016.5 Direct causes of food insecurity include burden on international humanitarian assistance. a combination of reduced availability and supply of food (due to market and trade disruptions) and Macroeconomic instability and decline. Yemen’s declining purchasing power due to increased prices economy, already stagnating and weakened since of basic goods and reduction of incomes due to loss 2011, experienced significant further deterioration of employment or access to productive assets.6 The due to the conflict. In 2015, GDP contracted by an population is particularly vulnerable to disruptions estimated 28 percent and inflation increased to in imports, given the country’s historical import 30 percent. Insecurity and violence has disrupted dependency on staple foods (estimated at 90-95 government revenue generation (including through percent). Increasing food insecurity has led to the the suspension of oil and gas production and inability rise of negative coping strategies, including poor to collect taxes), leading to a significant reduction in food consumption (limited and poor-quality rations), public expenditures, which deprived state institutions increased personal and household debt, and reduced

3 Total cereal production in 2016 was estimated at 480,000 MT, which is about 11 percent below the 2015 harvest and 37 percent below the previous five-year average (FAO GIEWS, 2017). 4 World Bank. Country Engagement Note. June 2016. 5 Integrated Phase Classification.Yemen Acute Food Insecurity Situation. March 2017 6 According to WFP, the cost of a minimum food basket is currently 33 percent higher than before the crisis. (WFP. State of Food Insecurity in Yemen. April 2017).

CASE STUDY: FAMINE RESPONSE AND PREVENTION IN YEMEN 9 expenditures on health and education—all of which to access restriction to fishing sites and cross border have deepened vulnerability. The most food insecure trade. Fishermen in coastal areas stopped fishing populations include IDPs (including recent returnees) and majority lost their livelihood opportunities. The who have experienced the sharpest declines in poultry sector is on verge of disintegrating. Taking personal and household incomes, as well as the into consideration the high investment in this sector, most poor, whose essential needs were previously its collapse will affect livelihoods of considerable supported through national social protection population in the country. In the face of continued programmes. Ninety-five districts are currently insecurity, market disruption, inadequate public considered at high risk of famine having breached the financing, and unfavorable macro-economic international standard thresholds of food insecurity conditions, livelihood options are expected to further using the IPC Phase Classification procedures, and decline as productivity losses and unemployment WHO’s classification thresholds (i.e. >=20 percent continue to increase, further increasing food severely food insecure and >=15 percent Global insecurity and reliance on humanitarian assistance. Acute Malnutrition).7 Continued disruption of imports, domestic trade, and increasing prices, against the Malnutrition and disease. In Yemen, the backdrop of continued insecurity and income/ deterioration of WASH and health services, livelihoods losses, are expected to increase food together with increased individual and household insecurity, including potentially to IPC Phase 5 ‘famine’ vulnerability in the context of declining incomes level in most affected governorates and districts.8 and food availability, are directly contributing to significant increases in disease and malnutrition. Loss of livelihoods. Livelihoods have been These in turn serve to reinforce vulnerability and significantly impacted by all four secondary drivers erode resilience and coping mechanisms. At present, outlined above—particularly by the decline in an estimated 4.5 million children and pregnant and purchasing power of the population due to loss of lactating women are acutely malnourished (up livelihoods. An estimated 8 million people have lost 148 percent since 2014), while 95 districts across their livelihoods, with economic losses amounting 14 governorates report GAM scores above the global to an estimated US$ 3.9 billion since the start of the emergency threshold. Increasing malnutrition rates conflict. These include loss of employment and/ are directly caused by the breakdown of health or income as a result of suspension or reduction in services and social safety nets, and exacerbated civil servant salaries (affecting 1.25 million people),9 by inadequate food availability, and the incidence decreased productivity/income and closure of firms of disease.11 With respect to the latter, continued due to market/trade disruptions, and increased cost disruptions in the provision of adequate water and of inputs and inaccessibility of productive assets waste management services (with over 8 million (due to insecurity or destruction).10 Livelihood losses people lacking access to safe drinking water and have been particularly pronounced in the agricultural sanitation), combined with restricted access to sector, which accounts for 60 percent of household health services (with only 45 percent of facilities fully livelihoods, 50 percent of the workforce and 25-30 functional), have directly led to the outbreak of a percent of the annual food requirement, and in which cholera epidemic with over 494,000 suspected production has decreased by more than 30 percent. cases and 2,000 deaths reported by late June 2017 The fishery sector is severely damaged due (WHO data).

7 Yemen Food Security and Agriculture Cluster (FSAC) and Nutrition Cluster 8 Integrated Phase Classification.Yemen Acute Food Insecurity Situation. March 2017 9 The main sources of household income in Yemen are: public and private sector salaries (40 percent), informal labor (30 percent), trade and agricultural production (20 percent) and other sources (10 percent). (WFP. Yemen Emergency Food Security and Nutrition Assessment (EFSNA). 2016). 10 World Bank. 2016. 11 Integrated Phase Classification.Yemen Acute Food Insecurity Situation. March 2017

10 BUSINESS CASE ASSESSMENT FOR ACCELERATING DEVELOPMENT INVESTMENTS IN FAMINE RESPONSE AND PREVENTION 3. ELEMENTS OF A COMPREHENSIVE APPROACH FOR MITIGATING FAMINE RISK IN YEMEN

As outlined above, the dynamics explaining the heightened risk of famine in Yemen are complex and multi-faceted, and not reducible to one factor alone.

Understanding the cause and nature of food is to provide immediate and direct assistance insecurity (as a prime determinant of famine risk) to individuals, prioritizing access and speed of requires an understanding of how conflict dynamics delivery. Designed to save lives in emergency are affecting the systems, institutions, and services contexts, these interventions only address the essential to social and economic stability, and direct manifestation of famine-related threats, how changes in these directly impact the welfare and not their causes. As such, they should be and livelihoods of individuals and households. For considered a temporary measure. In the context an effective response to mitigate or prevent the of the famine risk dynamics in Yemen, these occurrence of famine, it needs to take into account interventions include: and address these causal relationships. This, by ■■ Alleviating food insecurity through direct definition, points to the need for a holistic approach supply of food (both in kind and through that is flexible enough to address the three sets of vouchers) to meet minimal food and nutri- causal drivers outlined below. tion requirements; cash transfers to increase the purchasing power of households and In the case of Yemen, this necessitates addressing not mitigate use of negative coping strategies; just the immediate manifestation and impact of food emergency livelihoods assistance through insecurity, loss of livelihoods and malnutrition and the provision of critical agricultural, livestock disease, but also the proximate and underlying factors and fisheries inputs or assets; through both development-oriented and political/ peacebuilding perspectives. Accordingly, four levels ■■ Reducing the incidence and vulnerability of response can be identified that address different to diseases, through access to health aspects of famine causation. These are illustrated in services by the direct provision of medical diagram 2, and described in detail below. services and medicines (e.g. mobile health clinics); clean water and sanitation, 1. Level 1 Response: Humanitarian life-saving including emergency distribution of water assistance. The provision of life-saving assis- (e.g. trucking) and provision of temporary sanitation facilities (e.g. latrines); tance in famine or pre-famine contexts focuses on addressing the incidence or high risk of ■■ Reducing the incidence of malnutrition mortality and disease as a direct consequence through nutrition services, with particular of food insecurity, loss of livelihoods, malnu- focus on children and pregnant and trition and disease. In these contexts, the aim lactating women.

CASE STUDY: FAMINE RESPONSE AND PREVENTION IN YEMEN 11 CONFLICT RESOLUTION & PEACEBUILDING PRIMARY DRIVERS

Political/Peace Conflict Pre-Crisis Long-term Settlement Dynamics Structural Drivers development

SECONDARY DRIVERS

Disruption of Population & markets, trade & social impact productivity Political Actions/ Resilience & Peacebuilding Recovery Macroeconomic Disruption of instability & public service decline provision

TERTIARY DRIVERS

Humanitarian Food Loss of Malnutrition life-saving Insecurity Livelihoods & Disease assistance

FAMINE

2. Level 2 Response: Resilience and recovery. ■■ Supporting agricultural and non-agricul- Increasingly, famine prevention and response tural income generation to rebuild lost or strategies also include interventions aimed damaged community assets, and increase at enhancing the resilience of individuals, purchasing power and economic self- households, communities and institutions, reliance through emergency or temporary understood as coping strategies and capacities employment programmes (e.g. cash for work, that allow them to weather adverse economic cash for assets, food for assets); strengthen- and social situations and prevent humanitarian ing productive capacities (through access to needs from deepening. These strategies can be financing, productive inputs and training); integrated in both humanitarian and economic and active labor market measures to facilitate recovery and development assistance frameworks, skills development and employment creation where they serve to bridge immediate life-saving over the medium-term; assistance with longer-term economic and social recovery. In the context of Yemen, these ■■ Stimulating sectoral productivity and interventions can help mitigate the systemic market activity to enhance sustainable disruptions caused by conflict (secondary driver livelihoods and availability and supply or proximate causes) by stabilizing and preventing of commodities through rehabilitation and the collapse of institutions and service delivery, reconstruction of essential economic infra- and creating a space for economic activity. structure (roads, airports, markets); support Interventions can include: for sectoral value chain development (e.g

12 BUSINESS CASE ASSESSMENT FOR ACCELERATING DEVELOPMENT INVESTMENTS IN FAMINE RESPONSE AND PREVENTION agricultural, livestock and fisheries); improv- measures on the road to a comprehensive ing access to credit and other financial ser- political and peace settlement to the conflict.13 vices; providing technical support to SMEs; These could include agreements and decisions to: and reducing barriers to importing food by facilitating access to trade financing. Promot- ■■ Safeguard and avoid the closure of access to ing the recovery and growth of agricultural key infrastructure (e.g. roads, ports, airports, production could have multiple benefits of and power generation facilities); both increasing food availability, decreasing ■■ End use of economic measures as reliance on imports, and generating employ- instruments of war (e.g. economic blockades ment and income. or war taxation); ■■ Strengthening equitable and sustainable ■■ Preserve the independent functioning of key delivery of basic services by strengthening government institutions and programmes institutional capacities at central and local such as the Central Bank, Social Welfare Fund, state levels, as well as within communities the Public Works Programme and the Social and civil society; rehabilitation of service Fund for Development; infrastructure and provision of equipment; support for recruitment, payment and train- ■■ Allow for the safe return of IDPs. ing of personnel; and the provision of financing for capital and operational expenditures. 4. Level 4 Response: Long-term development. While political decisions and an eventual settle- ■■ Short-term alleviation of the fiscal burden ment to the conflict will end the destructive pres- caused by the crisis through provision of sures on the systems, institutions and services external financing to replenish national serving as secondary drivers of famine risk, they reserves, thereby facilitating stabilization will likely remain extremely weak and incapable of the exchange rate, facilitating lending, of improving economic conditions and livelihood and resumption of regular payment of civil prospects over the long-run in the absence of servant salaries.12 long-term development measures. Ultimately, these will be critical to ensure sustainable recov- 3. Level 3 Response: Political and peacebuilding ery of productive assets and economic growth, measures. Over the medium to long-term, reduce poverty and vulnerability, and also pre- efforts to enhance food security, livelihoods and vent the reoccurrence of conflict. Key priorities in access to services by ‘shoring up’ institutions, this regard for Yemen will likely include: systems and productive capacities will not be sustainable or face diminishing returns unless ■■ Addressing sources of grievance due to social they can also be linked to a definitive resolution and economic inequalities and exclusion of the conflict or specific political agreements through the development of inclusive that create an appropriate enabling environment institutions at central and local levels, and (hence addressing conflict as a primary driver). the development of equitable social and Addressing some of the impacts of the conflict economic policies; on the population, economic productivity, public services and macroeconomic stability ■■ Development of targeted programmes to do not necessarily require or need to wait for provide social protection, support long-term a comprehensive peace agreement, but could agricultural and non-agricultural livelihood take the form of interim or ‘stop-gap’ political opportunities, and economic development decisions by all parties. These could, in their own in areas inhabited by the most poor and right, serve as important confidence building vulnerable;

12 Famine Early Warning Systems Network. Yemen Food Security Outlook, June 2017 to January 2018. 13 For further recommendations, see: International Crisis Group. Instruments of Pain (I): Conflict and Famine in Yemen. April 2017.

CASE STUDY: FAMINE RESPONSE AND PREVENTION IN YEMEN 13 © UNDP Yemen

■■ Development of a master capital plan to ■■ A national plan for the strengthening of rehabilitate, modernize and expand Yemen’s governance and service provision institutions economic infrastructure; at central, governorate and district level; ■■ Development of a long-term national ■■ Strengthening of government fiscal and economic plan focused on economic financial management capacities, including diversification, private sector development, revenue collection, expenditure planning jobs creation and equitable economic and oversight; growth; ■■ Improving the government’s economic posi- ■■ Sectoral strategies and plans for improving tion through financing of the fiscal deficit sectoral productivity, supply and demand for and access to international financial markets. labor, and value chain development;

14 BUSINESS CASE ASSESSMENT FOR ACCELERATING DEVELOPMENT INVESTMENTS IN FAMINE RESPONSE AND PREVENTION 4. OVERVIEW OF CURRENT FAMINE RESPONSE EFFORTS IN YEMEN

Since the start of the conflict in 2015, the international community has allocated considerable resources to address political, humanitarian and economic priorities and needs in Yemen. The elements of the international response which directly address the risk of famine are currently integrated in the HRP as well as development-orientated interventions regrouped under a ‘humanitarian plus’ heading.

This section provides an overview of measures with effective in preventing a more rapid escalation of direct bearing on the prevention of famine, and how food insecurity as well as morbidity associated with they relate to the comprehensive approach to address- malnutrition and disease. In at least six governorates ing the full range of causal variable presented above. (Al Hudaydah, Amran, Hajjah, Sa’dah, Sana’a, and Ta’izz), food security outcomes would have been at HUMANITARIAN RESPONSE PLAN (HRP) least one phase higher in the absence of current food assistance.14 At the same time, humanitarian part- The current HRP for Yemen (2017) foresees a range ners acknowledge that the drivers of food insecurity of measures to address the deepening risk of remain present, meaning that underlying vulnerabil- famine, and which for the most part target those ities have not been addressed. This underscores the governorates and districts with the highest risk observation made earlier that while life-saving assis- populations (IPC levels 3 and 4). These measures are tance can provide a temporary relief, it must be linked articulated across four sectors—food security and to measures to address underling drivers—notably agriculture, WASH, health and nutrition—and focus the secondary drivers described in section 2—if such on the provision of immediate life-saving assistance support is to be sustainable and effectively address (corresponding to the Level 1 response outlined in current vulnerabilities. the previous section) and enhancing livelihoods, resilience and service delivery (corresponding to In addition, humanitarian partners are concerned that the level 2 response outlined above). Table 1 below insufficient financing for humanitarian efforts will provides a summary of these sectors, corresponding erode the gains achieved to date in mitigating food interventions and the population targets (planned insecurity, potentially pushing several governorates and reached) for 2017. into IPC Phases 4 and 5 (full famine). During the first half of 2017, only 19 percent of the total funding To date, the humanitarian response as articulated required to address famine prevention related through the HRP (and its previous iterations in 2016 needs across the four relevant sectors has been and 2015) is widely considered as having been mobilized.15 Of the limited financing made available,

14 Integrated Phase Classification. March 2017. 15 The total funding required for the four sectors amounts to US$ 1.9 billion, of which 19 percent has been mobilized. The total funding requirement for the 2017 HRP (revised in August 2017 to include additional needs related to the Cholera outbreak) amount to US$ 2.3 billion.

CASE STUDY: FAMINE RESPONSE AND PREVENTION IN YEMEN 15 most financing has been allocated to life-saving instance, emergency food assistance targets for 2017 interventions, which have been accorded priority over have been set for people in acute need, amounting to resilience (level 2) related interventions.16 Moreover, less than half of the total population in need (8 million it is important to note that HRP 2017 targets do not people out of a total of 17 million people currently in represent the totality of the population in need. For IPC Phase 3 and 4 food insecurity).

TABLE 1: OVERVIEW OF HUMANITARIAN INTERVENTIONS TARGETING FAMINE RISKS1718

POPN TARGETS % REACHED STRATEGIC OBJECTIVE SECTOR SELECTED INTERVENTIONS (2017)17 (JULY 2017) 1. Provide life-saving Food Provision of emergency food assistance 8 million 58%18 assistance to the security and most vulnerable agriculture people in Yemen WASH Direct delivery of emergency water supply 800,000 46 through an effective, targeted Health Provision of medical consultations 6 million 8 response Nutrition Nutrition services for children and pregnant and 2.5 million 9 lactating women 2. Support and pre- Food Emergency livelihoods assistance (agricultural, 3.3 million 15 serve services and security and livestock and fisheries) institutions essen- agriculture tial to immediate Health Rehabilitation of damaged health facilities 226 (facilities) 50 humanitarian action and the promotion WASH Support for operation, maintenance and rehabili- 2.9 million 42 of livelihoods and tation of public water systems resilience

BRIDGING HUMANITARIAN, DEVELOPMENT AND around which this consensus is crystallizing include: PEACEBUILDING EFFORTS TO PREVENT FAMINE the need to safeguard gains achieved through the humanitarian response through strengthened In addition to the HRP, the United Nations and resilience and recovery; the need to preserve the World Bank have developed a number of existing institutional capacities and services; prepare interventions which are intended to complement the groundwork for an eventual political and peace provision of humanitarian assistance through settlement to enable rapid implementation; and support for strengthening livelihoods and initiate dialogue and analysis of medium to long- community resilience, preserving institutional term economic recovery and development needs capacity service delivery and promoting economic and priorities, including measures to address recovery. Grouped under the rubric of ‘humanitarian structural drivers of food insecurity.20 plus’, these interventions highlight increasing recognition and consensus among international As a basis for developing such an integrated partners of the need for a collective and sustained approach within the overall framework of the ‘New approach combining humanitarian, peacebuilding Way of Working’, the Humanitarian Country Team and development assistance to address the has identified five priority interventions to guide the protracted crisis in Yemen.19 Specific priorities efforts of international partners:

16 UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs. April 2017. 17 Data as of April 2017. (UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs. Yemen Periodic Monitoring Review. January-April 2017). 18 Average monthly reach as of July 2017, FSAC response and gap analysis. 19 The 2017 HRP explicitly acknowledges the interface between life-saving and development-focused measures as part of the humanitarian response. (United Nations. 2017 Yemen Humanitarian Response Plan. January 2017). 20 United Nations. Snapshot: Yemen’s ‘New Way of Working’. 2017. See also Final Report: Consultative Meeting for Yemen, Larnaca 6-8 October 2015.

16 BUSINESS CASE ASSESSMENT FOR ACCELERATING DEVELOPMENT INVESTMENTS IN FAMINE RESPONSE AND PREVENTION ■■ An integrated approach to famine prevention ■■ Critical state institutions, at central and local combining life-saving assistance with livelihoods levels, maintain core functions and contribute to and economic productivity support; confidence building between the parties to the conflict. ■■ Targeted support to essential public institutions to ensure continuity of service delivery and ■■ Basic social services continue to be delivered to prevent institutional collapse; the general population. ■■ Cash transfers to promote resilience and decrease ■■ Communities are better managing external aid dependence, addressing a gap in delivery of threats, local risks and shocks with increased public social protection; economic self-reliance and enhanced social cohesion. ■■ Enhance safety, security and rule of law in tandem with conflict resolution and ■■ Effective leadership, participation and peacebuilding; and engagement of women, youth and civil society are promoted to strengthen their contribution to ■■ Promote effective coordination and joint 24 planning across humanitarian, development and peace and security in Yemen. peacebuilding activities.21 Within this framework, a number of projects are In order to facilitate partnerships and collaboration currently being implemented or in development, in this context, several collective instruments which directly address famine-related causal factors are being developed. These include a “Yemen as identified in the sections above through integrated Humanitarian-Development-Peace Platform” (an and multi-partners approaches. These include: initiative of the UN, World Bank, IsDB and EU), ■ which provides a mechanism for centralizing ■ Enhanced Rural Resilience in Yemen Project data collection and analysis to inform common (ERRY). Implemented by UNDP, FAO, ILO, and understandings of needs, priorities and collaborative WFP and financed by the EU, the objectives of opportunities, as well as multi-stakeholder this joint programme are to strengthen economic needs assessment and priority setting exercises, self-reliance and enhance social cohesion to building on the Damage Needs Assessment (DNA) better manage risks and shocks as well as to undertaken in 2015 – the most important of which strengthen the responsiveness, effectiveness and is the “pre-Recovery and Peacebuilding Assessment” accountability of institutions in delivering services process.22 and meeting community needs. The programme, which is financed at US$ 38 million, is intended to UN STRATEGIC FRAMEWORK (UNSF) FOR YEMEN (2017-2019) enhance planning capacities in 100 communities, create livelihoods for over 55,000 individuals, The Yemen UNSF provides a common UN system strengthen capacities in four governorate offices vision and strategy with the objective of “mitigating and 8 local district authorities, and support private the impact of the current conflict on the social and sector development through training for 1,500 economic conditions in Yemen, and on the capacity people and support 2 business associations. of state institutions while contributing to ongoing peacebuilding efforts”.23 It is intended to serve as a ■■ World Bank-financed projects. In addition, the programmatic bridge between the HRP and future World Bank, in partnership with the UN, is currently recovery and post-crisis programming, within financing a number of projects for over US$ 1 which UN system efforts will be focused on four billion, which address a number of secondary collective outcomes: drivers of famine risk in Yemen, notably:

21 Yemen Humanitarian Country Team. Reply to IASC Steering Committee – Draft. received September 2017. 22 Ibid. 23 United Nations. UN Strategic Framework for Yemen (2017-2019) – Draft. August 2017. 24 Ibid.

CASE STUDY: FAMINE RESPONSE AND PREVENTION IN YEMEN 17 — Creation of livelihood and income generation — Decreasing susceptibility to disease and opportunities through rapid employment malnutrition through provision of health projects as well as through improvement in pro- and nutrition services to highly vulnerable ductive assets and provision of related services; populations (with particular focus on children and women), while strengthening service — Expanding community access to basic services provision capacities of health institutions. through rehabilitation of community-based institutions and provision of cash transfers;

TABLE 2: OVERVIEW OF WORLD-BANK FINANCED PROJECTS PARTNERS/ TARGETS/ BUDGET PROJECT TITLE COMPONENTS OBJECTIVE BENEFICIARIES (US$ MILLION) Smallholder FAO To increase the use of productivity and nutrition- 90,000 house- 36 Agricultural enhancing agricultural practices by smallholders. holds (630,000 Production The first component will finance priority subprojects people ) ben- Restoration and investments to increase smallholders’ produc- efitting from and Enhance- tion, income, and nutrition. It consists of following investments, ment Project sub-components: (i) strengthening community subprojects & (2017-2020) land and water management; (ii) improving animal services; husbandry, livestock production, and animal health 200,000 livestock services; and (iii) improving livelihoods and adding owners benefit- value to agriculture. The second component, capacity ting from animal building and extension will finance: (i) capacity vaccinations & building activities to strengthen skills of stakeholders treatments involved in service provision in the project areas; and (ii) extension activities for project beneficiaries in a range of fields. Emergency UNDP to provide short-term employment and access to 400,000 people 300 Crisis (umbrella selected basic services to the most vulnerable; and employed; Response and preserve implementation capacity of two service 1.7 million house- Project additional delivery programs. There are two components to the hold members (2017-2019) financing) project, the first component being labor-intensive indirectly benefit- works and community services. The overall objec- ing from income; tives of the component are to: (a) provide income support to targeted communities through temporary 2.5 million employment opportunities, (b) increase the produc- people benefiting tive assets and means of livelihood of beneficiary from services households and communities and improve access to and improved community and social services, and (c) preserve the productivity implementation capacity of the SFD and PWP, as key national service delivery programs. UNICEF The project objective is to provide short-term 1.5 million 200 (Second employment and access to selected basic services to vulnerable and additional the most vulnerable; preserve existing implementa- poor households financing tion capacity of two service delivery programs; and benefit from cash and restruc- provide emergency cash transfers to the poor and transfers (approx- turing) vulnerable in response to the food crisis. imately 8 million people) Emergency UNICEF The project objective is to contribute to the provision 13 million people 483 Health and and WHO of basic health and essential nutrition services for the Nutrition (umbrella benefit of the population of the Republic of Yemen. Project and The project is designed to scale up support for the (2017-2020) additional prevention and treatment of acute malnutrition financing) among children and women at all levels of care and to provide fortified nutritious supplements/food to the identified malnourished people.

18 BUSINESS CASE ASSESSMENT FOR ACCELERATING DEVELOPMENT INVESTMENTS IN FAMINE RESPONSE AND PREVENTION 5. COSTS AND BENEFITS OF RESILIENCE AND RECOVERY INTERVENTIONS

The preceding sections have explained the value of interventions that go beyond addressing immediate needs related to food insecurity by directly addressing the factors causing reduced supply and availability of food, and decreasing purchasing power, among others.

In a context where international financial assistance requirements for 8 million people per month is limited and difficult decisions need to be taken on within IPC Phase 3 and 4 food insecurity. Total how to prioritize resources, it is important to carefully costs amount to approximately US$ 1 billion for weigh the appropriateness and effectiveness of differ- one year (2017). ent types of interventions. This section compares the costs and benefits of direct life-saving assistance (Level 2. Level 2: The Yemen Emergency Response 1 responses) with measures to improve livelihoods and Project, financed by the World Bank and resilience (level 2 responses). As such, the aim is not to implemented by UNDP, aims to support the argue that one type of response is better and should rehabilitation of community infrastructures substitute for the other, but rather to inform decisions and services (including water management on the appropriate ‘mix’ of interventions required in systems, rehabilitation of agricultural land and particular contexts to most effectively address famine rehabilitation of roads) through labor-intensive prevention objectives given available resources, and approaches (cash for work). The programme achieve an appropriate balance between life-saving is expected to create temporary employment and longer-term resilience and recovery measures for 400,000 people, indirectly benefiting 2.8 over the medium to longer term. million household members and another 2.5 million community members benefiting from For the purposes of the analysis, and to illustrate the productivity gains accruing from access to types of considerations that should be weighed, three services and improved productive assets. Total interventions have been compared, drawing from costs for a three-year implementation period ongoing assistance programmes: amount to approximately US$ 265 million.

1. Level 1: The programme of emergency food 3. Level 3: The Yemen Smallholder Agricultural assistance implemented under the food Productivity Restoration and Enhancement security and agriculture cluster of the HRP.25 This Project, financed by the World Bank and programme is intended to provide emergency implemented by FAO, which aims to strengthen food assistance (direct relief food and cash/ community land and water management, voucher transfers) to meet minimum food improve livestock production and improve

25 United Nations. Humanitarian Response Plan for Yemen 2017. 2016.

CASE STUDY: FAMINE RESPONSE AND PREVENTION IN YEMEN 19 livelihoods and agricultural value added. The At the same time, both level 2 interventions have programme is expected to benefit 90,000 important potential costs related to viability and households (630,000 people) in terms of direct sustainability risk, which accrue due to the volatility or employment income and productivity gains, lack of enabling conditions for development-oriented as well as 200,000 livestock owners benefiting activities (the security, political and broader institu- from better livestock productivity. Total costs for tional and economic environment). The cost effective- a three-year implementation period amount to ness of both level 2 interventions must also therefore approximately US$ 36 million. take into consideration the risk and probability of project failure and the added costs of implementing SUMMARY OF FINDINGS enabling measures (which as discussed in the previ- Based on the comparative analysis of the three ous section are related to addressing primary drivers interventions (the summary of which is included of food insecurity at the political level). Because of its in the annex), a strong and clear argument can modality of direct delivery, provision of emergency be made—all things considered equal—about food assistance does not face the same level of risk the cost effectiveness of level 2 interventions in (though access for distribution is often an issue). preventing food insecurity and associated impacts (e.g. malnutrition and negative coping strategies). Additional benefits of Level 2 interventions. Extrapolating project costs to three years for a total In addition to mitigating food insecurity and population of 8 million (1.14 million households), malnutrition, reinforcing positive coping mechanisms, yields the following: the cost of providing emer- and increasing household purchasing power (the gency food assistance amounts to US$ 3 billion; key benefits of the emergency food assistance the cost of the emergency response project (cash programme), level 2 interventions are expected to for work and community infrastructure) amounts have the following additional benefits: to US$ 757 million; and the cost of the smallholder ■ agricultural productivity and restoration project ■ Productivity gains and economic multipliers (improving productive assets and access to services) resulting from improved access to productive amounts to US$ 457 million. In other words, assets, increased production due to better measures to enhance livelihoods through income agricultural practices, and enhanced access to generation and productivity support cost less over markets and services. These are expected to time to achieve the same results as emergency generate important returns on investment of food assistance. between 100-150 percent due to, for instance, adoption of terracing techniques, spate irrigation, and improved animal husbandry techniques.26

TABLE 3: ECONOMIC BENEFITS OF SELECTED AGRICULTURAL IMPROVEMENTS IN YEMEN ESTIMATED INCREMENTAL NET AGRICULTURAL ASSET IMPROVEMENT SUPPORT THROUGH PROJECT BENEFIT (IN US$ PER YEAR) Land and soil management Adoption or rehabilitation of land terracing techniques, 471 per hectare which can increase land use, improve irrigation and mitigate soil erosion. Water management Provision of cisterns for water harvesting, leading to 2,115 per family reduced cost of drinking water, and increased farming and livestock productivity Irrigation Expansion of spate irrigation for improved sorghum yields 3,119 per hectare (20% increase) Livestock Restocking of small ruminants with local improved breeds 975 per family and improved husbandry techniques

Source: Adapted from World Bank, Yemen Smallholder Agricultural Production, Restoration and Enhancement Project (P162659), 2016.

26 World Bank. Yemen – Smalholder Agricultural Production Restoration and Enhancement Project P162659. 2017.

20 BUSINESS CASE ASSESSMENT FOR ACCELERATING DEVELOPMENT INVESTMENTS IN FAMINE RESPONSE AND PREVENTION Both L2 interventions also contain important Complementary and not competing. A very economic multipliers, insofar as the use of labor- important caveat to the above analysis is that Level 1 intensive (cash for work) modalities to implement and Level 2 interventions in the specific context of the community and service provision projects means current crisis in Yemen are not directly comparable that the same investment has a double benefit from a strict cost/benefit perspective. It must be – creating income for individuals and enhancing recognized that each operates under different the productivity of those people who benefit operational and enabling conditions, and respond to from improved access to services. Table 3 below somewhat different prerogatives: provides an overview of selected economic benefits of support for agricultural development ■■ Level 1 interventions, of which emergency in Yemen. food assistance is but one example, respond to the prerogative of saving lives and reducing ■■ Avoided losses related to the further the immediate risk of morbidity. They provide deterioration and collapse of critical services, immediate emergency services and assistance through preserving and maintaining critical through direct implementation modalities, with service provisions (both institutional and operational risks being primarily issues of security community-based), which include losses in and access. individual and community resilience, foregone productivity and the cost of substituting services ■■ Level 2 interventions, on the other hand, are through humanitarian assistance. focused on the preservation and enhancement of livelihoods and productivity, and operate within a ■■ Avoided losses of productive assets, including medium-term operational time-frame, given the through the closure of businesses and negative time needed to derive income from productive coping strategies (e.g. distress sales), through activities and employment. Further, these interven- the preservation of livelihoods and productive tions require an enabling environment in which capacities. economic productivity is viable, i.e. in which goods ■■ Long-term productivity and development can be traded on adequate terms, markets are gains due to avoided health and education- accessible, and production costs can be controlled. related losses. The reduction in food insecurity over time would be expected to decrease the The major implication of these distinctions is that exposure and incidence of malnutrition and Level 2 interventions cannot substitute for Level disease and their long-term impacts, including 1 interventions in the context of an acute conflict stunting and morbidity, and also facilitate and humanitarian emergency. Rather, as mentioned acquisition of productive skills through access at the outset, the two sets are complementary to education. This would generate productive interventions that should be sequenced depending capacity that would otherwise have been lost on prevailing conditions. This can include a temporary due to prolonged food insecurity, and would sequencing—involving the transition from life- also avoid costs related to provision of direct saving to resilience-focused programming when the emergency assistance. situation has stabilized sufficiently. It can also include ■■ Avoided costs of humanitarian assistance. a geographically-differentiated two-track strategy, Over time and where conditions permit, a with life-saving interventions focused in areas most transition from Level 1 to Level 2 interventions badly affected and in which high levels of instability would also result in considerable savings in still prevail, and resilience focused interventions international financial assistance, given the focused in those areas outside of the main conflict significantly lower costs entailed. zones, where humanitarian needs are less acute but deep vulnerabilities nonetheless exist.

CASE STUDY: FAMINE RESPONSE AND PREVENTION IN YEMEN 21 6. COUNTRY-SPECIFIC RECOMMENDATIONS ON BETTER INTEGRATING HUMANITARIAN, DEVELOPMENT AND PEACE INTERVENTIONS TO PREVENT, MITIGATE AND ADDRESS FAMINE RISK

Based on the analysis of famine drivers in Yemen and ongoing efforts to promote greater integration across humanitarian, development and peacebuilding efforts, the following observations and recommendations can be made:

■■ Both the HRP and humanitarian plus interven- management approaches to: a) identify where tions currently address a subset of the total development efforts can be sustainable in the affected population due to limited financial current context (including by focusing on areas resources. These interventions need to be scaled of relative stability or institutions within society up significantly if they are to have a large-scale or at local levels which have capacity that can be impact on the total affected population and avert built on); and b) develop more flexible modalities the slide into famine conditions. for development interventions, including phasing ■■ While clear progress has been made in comple- and sequencing of activities, to allow for greater menting humanitarian life-saving assistance with adaptation to prevailing risks and responsiveness a number of large-scale development interven- as conditions evolve. tions, there is a need to go beyond statement of ■■ More robust linkages need to be established collective outcomes and ‘collaborative intent’ by with international, regional and national actors humanitarian, development and peacebuilding engaged in political and peace efforts and partners to the development of an operational negotiations to include a specific focus on framework for joint prioritization, targeting and improving security and access for the provision sequencing of interventions across the various of humanitarian assistance and to facilitate domains. This is essential to ensure contiguity economic stabilization and recovery. Pending and transition between humanitarian and devel- a comprehensive political settlement to the opment efforts across time and space. conflict, collaboration between humanitarian, ■■ The sustainability and overall effectiveness development and peacebuilding actors could of development interventions are a serious focus, for instance, on mediating localized concern in the current context in Yemen, which agreement on lifting of economic blockades is marked by continued high levels of instability, and access restrictions; expanding ‘safe zones’ conflict and violence. The absence of traditional to enable humanitarian access and economic ‘enablers’ for development interventions recovery; and supporting local conflict resolution requires innovation, proactivity and robust risk and dialogue initiatives.

22 BUSINESS CASE ASSESSMENT FOR ACCELERATING DEVELOPMENT INVESTMENTS IN FAMINE RESPONSE AND PREVENTION ANNEX: COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF SELECTED FAMINE PREVENTION INTERVENTIONS IN YEMEN

COSTS OF ASSISTANCE TYPE OF PRIORITY ESTIMATED COSTS PROJECTED FOR INTERVENTION ADDRESSED ACTIVITIES BENEFICIARIES BENEFITS/IMPACT (PER ANNUM) THREE YEARS Life-saving Emergency • Direct food • 8,000,000 direct • Alleviation of short- Direct costs 3 billion USD assistance assistance beneficiaries who term food insecurity food assis- • 1 billion USD receive US$65 tance/alle- • Cash/ • Improved coping (direct cost of food equivalent per viating food voucher ability assistance) – US$ month in food insecurity transfers 780 per beneficiary assistance • Avoided malnutrition for 1 year and morbidity Indirect costs • Foregone productivity (abandonment of food production & income generation) • Risk of aid dependence Livelihoods Income • Short-term Income creation Direct • Project costs: If this assistance and resilience generation job creation 265 million USD was scaled up to • Direct benefi- • Improved purchasing strengthen- and access to (cash for (over three years) support 8 million ciaries (cash for power of households ing services work) people (1.14 work): 400,000 Indirect costs • Income support to million house- Yemen • Rehabili- people, receiv- purchase basic neces- • Enabling holds benefiting Emergency tation of ing up to $500/ sities beyond food; conditions/ from income Crisis community household or environment and increased Response infrastruc- $100/person • Alleviation of short- (security, productivity), the Project ture and term food insecurity • Indirect benefi- governance, total cost would (World Bank/ services ciaries of wage • Improved coping infrastructure) be approximately: UNDP) income (family ability (productive US$757 million • Risk of loss due to members): assets and means of conflict/insecurity 1.7 million people livelihood protected/ enhanced) Services • Preventive value • People benefiting (avoided humanitarian from services sup- and human costs) ported through cash for work: Returns/economic 2.5 million multipliers Services created • Estimated 100% return on investment • Water schemes constructed/ • Increased economic rehabilitated productivity and (165,000 m3) self-reliance (agriculture) due to improved • Agricultural land access to services and terraces rehabilitated • Institutional capacities (630 hectares) for service provision preserved/strength- • Roads rehabili- ened (SFD/PWP) tated (65km) – avoided costs of collapse (human and humanitarian substitution costs)

(continued)

CASE STUDY: FAMINE RESPONSE AND PREVENTION IN YEMEN 23 (continued) COSTS OF ASSISTANCE TYPE OF PRIORITY ESTIMATED COSTS PROJECTED FOR INTERVENTION ADDRESSED ACTIVITIES BENEFICIARIES BENEFITS/IMPACT (PER ANNUM) THREE YEARS Livelihoods Strength- • Strength- • 90,000 house- Direct • Project costs: If this assistance and resilience ening food ening com- holds (630,000 36 million USD was scaled up to • Prevention of further strengthen- security, pro- munity land people) benefit- (over three years) support 8 million deterioration in house- ing ductivity and and water ting from income people (1.14 holds’ food security Indirect costs livelihoods manage- from employment million house- ment and productivity • Avoided productivity • Enabling condi- holds benefiting Yemen gains losses due to reductions/environment from income Smallholder • Improving tion of malnutrition (security, gover- and increased Agricultural livestock • 200,000 livestock and stunting; nance, infrastruc- productivity), the Productivity production owners benefit- ture) total cost would be Restoration and access ting from better • Improved purchasing approximately: and Enhance- to services livestock produc- power • Risk of loss due to US$ 457 million ment Project tivity conflict/insecurity • Improving Returns/economic (World Bank/ livelihoods multipliers FAO) and agricul- • Overall economic tural value returns of US$1.5 for added every dollar invested (150% return on investment) • Promotion of increased food production and income generation, • maintained and increased agricultural and livestock productivity • Enhanced access to drinking water and agricultural productivity • Increased agricultural productivity through restoring abandoned land to productive use

24 BUSINESS CASE ASSESSMENT FOR ACCELERATING DEVELOPMENT INVESTMENTS IN FAMINE RESPONSE AND PREVENTION

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