Agung Podomoro Land
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Indonesia Company Guide Agung Podomoro Land Version 2 | Bloomberg : APLN IJ | Reuters: APLN.JK Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report DBS Group Research . Equity 7 Jun 2016 FULLY VALUED Laying low for now Last Traded Price: Rp244 (JCIJCIJCIJCI : 4,896.03) Price Target : Rp205 (-16% downside) (Prev Rp285) Maintain FULLY VALUED call. We adjusted our RNAV Potential Catalyst: More significant project acquisitions downwards to Rp502/sh to reflect latest revenue recognition Where we differdiffer:::: Having the most bearish estimates and earning estimates given the latest development of APLN’s Analyst existing and new projects. Subsequently, our TP is adjusted to Edward Ariadi Tanuwijaya +6221 3003 4932 Rp205 (implying c.19% downside from current level). [email protected] What’s New Reclamation project status remains uncleaunclearrrr.. The development of APLN’s major projects remain uncertain with all the swirling • New revenue stream from PGV Cimanggis project news on the 160-ha Pluit City reclamation project. APLN, • Reclamation project remains unclear given the known for its fast turnover business model, has to seek other latest development (and administrative court projects to maintain its earnings continuity and sustainability. order) • Balance sheet will continue to be highly geared New segment provides fresh revenue streamstream.. APLN recently groundbroke its new project Podomoro Golf View (PGV) • Maintain FULLY VALUED call Cimanggis in south Jakarta suburb area. The company, through its subsidiary PT. Graha Tunas Selaras, plans to build 25 apartment towers (i.e. 37,000 apartment units) on this 60- Price Relative ha project. This PGV project offers 20-30 sqm units with price Rp Relative Index per unit ranging between Rp198m and Rp470m. APLN's 536.3 211 191 486.3 involvement in this project marks a slight shift into affordable 171 436.3 151 vertical residential apartment (known as rusunami) for the low 386.3 131 336.3 middle class segment and its intention to support the 111 286.3 91 government’s one-million-house programme. 236.3 71 186.3 51 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Jun-16 Valuation: Agung Podomoro Land (LHS) Relative JCI INDEX (RHS) Our target price of Rp205 is pegged at a 60% discount to our Forecasts and Valuation base case RNAV. APLN is trading at deep 50% discount to FY Dec (((RpRpRp m) 2015 AAA 2016 FFF 2017 FFF 2018 FFF RNAV (but still much narrower than its 6-year average of 62%) Revenue 5,972 5,901 6,460 6,188 and 6.8x FY16F PE (at -1SD of its mean forward PE). EBITDA 2,220 2,238 2,588 2,344 Pre -tax Profit 1,457 1,492 1,814 1,594 Net Profit 809 731 871 882 Key Risks to Our View: Net Pft (Pre Ex.) 809 731 871 882 More significant project acquisitionsacquisitions.. The new Podomoro Golf Net Pft Gth (Pre -ex) (%) (5.4) (9.6) 19.2 1.3 View (PGV) Cimanggis project gave new revenue streamline EPS ( Rp ) 39.5 35.7 42.5 43.0 for APLN going forward. Successful acquisitions of new EPS Pre Ex. ( Rp ) 39.5 35.7 42.5 43.0 EPS Gth Pre Ex (%) (5) (10) 19 1 projects amid the current difficulties would alleviate some Diluted EPS (Rp ) 39.5 35.7 42.5 43.0 concerns on its earnings continuity. Net DPS ( Rp ) 0.0 5.92 5.35 6.37 BV Per Share ( Rp ) 332 362 399 436 At A Glance PE (X) 6.2 6.8 5.7 5.7 Issued Capital (m shrs) 20,501 PE Pre Ex. (X) 6.2 6.8 5.7 5.7 P/Cash Flow (X) 71.1 4.9 4.4 3.8 Mkt. Cap (Rpbn/US$m) 5,002 / 375 EV/EBITDA (X) 4.8 5.9 4.7 4.6 Major Shareholders (%) Net Div Yield (%) 0.0 2.4 2.2 2.6 Indofica 64.8 P/Book Value (X) 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 Prudential Life Assurance 6.6 Net Debt/Equity (X) 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.2 Simfoni Gema Lestari 5.1 RO AE (%) 12.2 10.3 11.2 10.3 Free Float (%) 27.1 Earnings Rev (%): 16 (13) N/A 3m Avg. Daily Val (US$m) 0.26 Consensus EPS (RpRpRp )::: 44.9 55.9 N/A ICB Industry : Real Estate / Real Estate Investment & Services Other Broker Recs: B: 3 S: 3 H: 0 Source of all data: Company, DBS Vickers, Bloomberg Finance L.P. ASIAN INSIGHTS VICKERS SECURITIES ed: TH / sa:MA Company Guide Agung Podomoro Land WHAT’S NEW Revenue breakdown and GP margin trend Laying low for now 7,000 Rpbn 55% Focus shift into new segmentsegment.. APLN, through its subsidiary PT. 6,000 50% Graha Tunas Selaras, plans to build 25 apartment towers (i.e. 5,000 37,000 apartment units) on new 60-ha project Podomoro Golf 45% 4,000 View (PGV) Cimanggis in south Jakarta suburb area. This PGV 3,000 project offers 20-30 sqm units with price per unit ranging 40% between Rp198m and Rp470m. This marks a slight shift into 2,000 affordable vertical residential apartment (known as rusunami) 35% 1,000 for the low middle class segment. Besides, APLN intends to support government’s one-million-house programme. 0 30% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Apartments Offices Houses & shophouses Investment Properties GP Margin (RHS) Reclamation project status remains unclear. Earlier this month, Source: Company, DBS Vickers the administrative court (PTUN) ordered Jakarta local government to revoke its decree SK no. 2238 issued on 23 Summary of assumption changes December 2014 which granted APLN’s subsidiary PT. Muara APLN Wisesa Samudra to reclamate island “G” in northern Jakarta FY15A FY16F FY17F shore. This has apparrently sealed the fate of this project, Mktg. Sales Now 2,2,2,5402, 540 2,2,2,8502, 850 2,769 in Rpbn Prev 2,933 2,015 which was stalled/stopped since early 2Q15 due to the central Chg (%) -3% +37% government's decision to suspend for further evaluation. Revenue Now 5,972 5,901 6,460 in Rpbn Prev 5,882 7,002 Fast turnover business model leaning towards sustainability Chg (%) 0% -8% riskriskrisk.risk . The difficulties in acquiring new significant projects going Net profit Now 810 731 871 forward and the uncertainties over its reclamation project are in Rpbn Prev 629 997 currently a risk going forward, affecting APLN’s earnings Chg (%) 16% -13% continuity and sustainability. The PGV project mentioned RNAV Now 505050750 777 above is estimated to contribute c. 2% of APLN’s RNAV. In in Rp/sh Prev 524 addition, APLN’s net gearing of 40% as of 1Q16 will continue Chg (%) -3% to increase given its existing capex requirement and slower TPTPTP Now 202020520 555 earnings generation. in Rp/sh Prev 285 Chg (%) -28% Maintain our bearish call on this countercounter.. Rec Now Fully Valued Prev Fully Valued In 1Q16, APLN managed to book Rp1.02tn marketing sales, Source: DBS Vickers 30% of its full-year guidance of Rp3.5tn (+40% y-o-y). It is a vast improvement from very weak 2015 (Note that FY15 marketing sales of Rp2.5tn is at the lowest level since its IPO in 2010). We adjusted our RNAV downwards to Rp507/sh to reflect latest revenue recognition and earning estimates given the latest development of APLN’s existing and new projects. Subsequently, our TP is adjusted to Rp205 (implying c.19% downside from current level). APLN is trading at a deep 50% discount to RNAV and 6.8x FY16F PE given all the risks explained above. ASIAN INSIGHTS VICKERS SECURITIES Page 2 Company Guide Agung Podomoro Land APLN: RNAV summary APLN portfolio Stake owned Valuation (Rpbn) RNAV Investment Properties Central Park Mall 100% 2,235 2,235 Pocy Extension 100% 558 558 Senayan City Mall 26% 2,161 551 SCTV Tower - Senayan City 26% 289 74 Panin Tower - Senayan City 26% 208 53 Kuningan City Mall 60% 893 536 AXA Tower - Kuningan City 60% 550 330 Green Bay Pluit Mall 100% 652 650 SoHo@MT Haryono 100% 52 52 Festival City Link Bandung 59% 496 292 Emporium Pluit Mall 53% 1,502 792 Lindeteves Trade Center 35% 87 30 Mal Plaza Balikpapan 65% 1,457 947 Pullman Hotel, Central Park 100% 558 558 Harris Hotel - Festival Citylink 59% 155 91 Sofitel, Nusa Dua, Bali 75% 1,059 795 Amaris Hotel - Thamrin City 100% 108 108 POP Hotel - Festival City Link 59% 137 81 Senayan City Apartments 26% 14 4 BnB Hotel, Kelapa Gading 51% 148 76 Mercure, Kelapa Gading 100% 221 221 Pullman Bandung 85% 274 233 IBIS Bandung 85% 263 223 Indigo Hotel Bali 51% 705 359 Pullman Vimala Hills 100% 539 539 Investment Properties Total Surplus/(Deficit) --- 111 10,10,388388 Property Developments Green Bay Sea View 100% 117 116 Green Permata 70% 3 2 Grand Taruma - Karawang 90% 291 262 Metro Park Residence 80% 70 56 Vimala Hills. Gadog 100% 719 718 SOHO@Pocy 100% 674 674 Madison Park 100% 165 165 SOHO@MT Haryono 100% 330 330 Simprug (Pakubuwono Residence) 60% 382 229 Balikpapan 65% 205 133 Plaza Kenari Mas 50% 536 268 Makassar 51% 267 136 Batam 80% 359 287 Deli Medan 58% 1,481 859 Harco Glodok 69% 999 690 Klender 85% 359 305 Podomoro Golf View Cimanggis 100% 246 246 Total PV of future development profits --- 222 5,477 FY16F Net Cash (Debt) --- Rpbn --- 333 ---5,-5,5,5,465465 RNAV (1+2+3) 10,10,400400 Fully Diluted Share base (bn) 21 RNAV per share (Rp) 555000777 Source: DBS Vickers ASIAN INSIGHTS VICKERS SECURITIES Page 3 Company Guide Agung Podomoro Land Marketing sales (Rpbn) CRITICAL DATA POINTS TO WATCH 6,089 Earnings Drivers: 5,271 Marketing sales achieved 4,392 Property developers recognise non-recurring revenue from 3,514 3,136 2,850 2,769 2,540 marketing sales in prior years.