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Presentación De Powerpoint Economic, Industry & Market Research Area August, 2021 Capital Market Structuring Area Special Report Top Picks Our 2021 Top Picks portfolio does not show variations in names for August. Thus, the basket should maintain Cementos Argos, Nutresa, Grupo Aval pref., and Ecopetrol. However, we have made changes to the weightings that these assets have within the portfolio. Analysis and Strategy Overall, the catalysts that drive the choice of these assets remain present since there have been no substantial changes in the market since the time of the Jairo Julian Agudelo R recommendation and that the main value inputs, both fundamental and Head of Equity Research sentiment, still favor these assets. Bancolombia S.A. We believe that this portfolio presents an adequate balance of risks for a market that, although still shows uncertainty and apathy amongst foreign investors, Andres Felipe Escobar C retains a significant fundamental upside, attractive relative valuations, and a Strategist divergence in favorable performance compared to other markets in the region. Grupo Bancolombia Capital With these assets we take a little more risk, given the discounts that have been 2021 Top Picks presented in some stocks over the last month and recognizing that, due to their cyclical nature, they should respond better to a possible rise in the market, but at the same time, because of their discount, it’s less likely that they present significant corrections in case the trend goes in the opposite direction. Nutresa, 20% History of our Top Picks Cemargos, 30% During 2021, the Top Picks portfolio has presented a devaluation of 12.6%, losing 78 bp against the Colcap and 660 bp compared to the basket of eligible assets, including dividends. Aval, Likewise, our latest recommendation, issued on August 4, presented a loss of Ecopetrol, 30% 5.3%, performing below the Colcap and the basket of eligible assets by 252 bps 20% and 214 bps, respectively. Source: Grupo Bancolombia. Top Picks follow-up Top Picks history Colcap ex- Alpha ex - Top Picks Colcap Alpha 160 Top Picks Colcap Colcap Ex-relacionadas related related 140 2015 -14,5% -16,9% 243 -17,8% 326 2016 28,9% 17,2% 1.171 17,8% 1.103 120 2017 12,8% 12,0% 80 13,0% -20 100 2018 -17,6% -12,4% -520 -16,9% -71 2019 17,2% 26,3% -914 27,3% -1.010 80 2020 17,4% -9,8% 2.715 -2,3% 1.967 60 2021 -12,6% -11,8% -78 -6,0% -660 Último -5,3% -2,8% -252 3,2% -214 dic.-17 dic.-15 dic.-16 dic.-18 dic.-19 dic.-20 abr.-21 abr.-16 abr.-17 abr.-18 abr.-19 abr.-20 ago.-17 ago.-18 ago.-19 ago.-20 ago.-21 Total 23,9% -4,1% 2.802 6,4% 1.758 ago.-16 Source: Grupo Bancolombia, Reuters. Source: Grupo Bancolombia, Reuters. Cementos Argos – It Could Post the Best EBITDA on Record in 2Q21 It continues to be the asset with the best feeling amongst investors surveyed, which we expect will be reflected positively in the share price. We expect 2Q21 results to be very positive, despite the impact of the blockades in the Colombian operation, with an EBITDA that we believe could be the best in the history of the company, even without considering the extraordinary profit that will be recorded this quarter from the sale of the ready-mix concrete assets in Dallas, which will further boost the result. With the normalization of the operation in Colombia and the good momentum and prospects for the US market (which could also become even more positive if the Biden administration’s infrastructure plan is approved), we expect Cemargos to continue posting positive results, managing to finish 2021 fulfilling the goal of reducing financial leverage to 3.2x, without the need for additional divestments. Grupo Nutresa – Undervalued Asset amidst Scenario of Consumer Confidence Recovery Although the 2Q20 results were negative in our view, we believe that Grupo Nutresa is a company with an interesting fundamental upside. In the short term, it is key that by means of pricing strategies added to efficiencies in expenses, it can counteract the negative effect that the increase in the cost of raw materials has on profitability. The sales outlook for the second half is positive, considering an economic recovery in the different countries where the company is present, and which goes hand in hand with the improvement in consumer confidence. Additionally, at the end of this year the company will inaugurate the new multi-category plant in the Santa Marta Free Zone (C3) that will boost exports, within the organic growth strategy, and will begin to reflect Belina’s results in 3Q21. It is important to highlight that the company is currently executing the share buyback program, of which close to COP36 bn has been purchased, equivalent to 12% of the total approved by the board of directors, so there is still a significant buying flow. The cash and debt position is quite healthy (below 2x net debt/EBITDA) which allows it to carry it out and also consider acquisitions that may be strategic according to the 2030 mega. Grupo Aval – Positive Results Should be Maintained throughout 2021 Grupo Aval continues to be our preferred asset in the financial sector. Thanks to its focus on commercial credit for large corporations and its investment in Corficolombiana, it achieved resilient results during 2020, maintaining a double-digit ROE. In 1Q21 it recorded positive results, driven by the financial business, and we expect the trend to continue throughout the year, as we expect an increasingly moderate expense on provisions. Ecopetrol – Recovery of Results due to Efficiencies and Price Ecopetrol’s 2Q21 results are positive. Revenues were above our expectation given the better sales of refined oil products in the domestic market. We highlight that for 2Q21 a barrel of Ecopetrol was sold for USD3.8 below the Brent reference, which means that the price differential remained at lows. It is relevant to note that 2Q21 results were better than 2Q19’s. In other words, Ecopetrol should be exceeding the pre-pandemic results with lower production as a result of the strong recovery in Brent prices, the exchange rate level, and good profit margins. 2Q21 production was affected by social unrest and blockades, reaching 661 kboed. Production should improve for 3Q21 and 4Q21, once the affected fields recover to previous production levels and the Castilla field, which had dumping problems that have already been solved, gradually recovers production. Thus, if the good relationship between Brent and the USDCOP is maintained, Ecopetrol could further improve results. Juan Pablo Espinosa Arango Chief Economist and Head of Economic, Industry and Market Research [email protected] EconomicResearch Industry Research Equity Research Arturo Yesid González Peña Jhon Fredy Escobar Posada Jairo Julián Agudelo Restrepo Quantitative Specialist Head of Agroindustry Research Head of Equity Research [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] Juan Camilo Meneses Cortes Nicolás Pineda Bernal Diego Alexander Buitrago Aguilar Macroeconomic Specialist Head of Commerce Research Utilities Analyst [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] +571 7463984 Juan Manuel Pacheco Perez Mateo Andrés Rivera Arbeláez Markets and Central Banking Analyst Commerce Industry Analyst Andrea Atuesta Meza [email protected] [email protected] Financial Sector Analyst [email protected] Santiago Espitia Pinzón Paolo Betancur Montoya Macroeconomic Analyst Agroindustry Analyst Juliana Aguilar Vargas, CFA [email protected] [email protected] Cement & Infrastructure Analyst [email protected] Bryan Hurtado Campuzano Javier David Villegas International and Regional Analyst Real Estate and Hotels Analyst Ricardo Andrés Sandoval Carrera [email protected] [email protected] Oil & Gas and Airlines Analyst [email protected] Deiby Alejandro Rojas Cano Valentina Gómez Garzón Macroindustry Analyst Commerce Sector Analyst Valentina Martínez Jaramillo [email protected] [email protected] Consumer & Industry Analyst [email protected] Julian Andrés Gómez Quintero Juan Esteban Echeverri Agudelo Intern Administrative Assistant Jairo Andrés Burgos Guerra [email protected] [email protected] Intern [email protected] José Manuel Lopera Molina Intern [email protected] Research Assistant Alejandro Quiceno Rendón Research Editor [email protected] Terms of Use: This report has been prepared by Analysis Bancolombia a research and analysis department at Grupo Bancolombia. It shall not to be distributed, copied, sold, or altered in any way without the express permission of Grupo Bancolombia, nor be used for any purpose other than to serve as background material which does not constitute an offer, advice, recommendation, or suggestion by Grupo Bancolombia for making investment decisions or conducting any transactions or business. The use of the information provided is solely the responsibility of the recipient. Before making an investment decision, you should assess multiple factors such as the risks of each instrument, your risk profile, your liquidity needs, among others. This report is only one of many elements that you should consider in making your investment decisions. In order to extend the content of this information, we ask you to contact your business manager. We recommend you not to make any investment decision until fully understanding all factors involved in such decisions. Fixed income and equity securities, interest rates, and other information found here are purely informational and are not an offer or firm demand to perform transactions. Also, according to the applicable regulations, our opinions or recommendations do not constitute a commitment or guarantee of return for the investor. The information and opinions in this research report constitute a judgment as of the date indicated and are subject to change without notice.
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