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Home , Alan grayson, Alan Mollohan, Allen West (politician), Bobby Bright, Chris Carney, Chris Shays

If Republicans can’t win most of these seats, House Speaker will take Must Win the gavel again for the 112th Congress. 2ND DISTRICT (OPEN): overwhelmingly against President Barack 7TH DISTRICT Obama in 2008. Polling suggests that former prosecutor (OPEN): With Rep. running is in a strong position against for the Senate, ex-prosecutor state Sen. for the Little Rock- seems well-positioned to return this Dela- based seat left vacant by the retirement of MISSISSIPPI 1ST DISTRICT: Rep. ware County-based seat to its historic Rep. . Travis Childers, who captured this north- GOP roots. ern Mississippi-based seat in a May 2008 special election, is swimming against a COLORADO 4TH DISTRICT: Rep. strong tide in his state and faces state Sen. Alan Nunnelee. PENNSYLVANIA 11th DISTRICT: Betsy Markey has taken some tough votes Ethics woes have taken their toll on Rep. in a tough seat. And state Rep. Cory Gard- , who ran five points behind ner is a top challenger in this Republican- Obama in 2008 then failed to win a major- leaning district. NEVADA 3RD DISTRICT: High unem- ity in the May primary. ployment and home foreclosure rates in the Las Vegas area are among the issues threat- ening to prevent first-term Rep. Dina Titus 2ND DISTRICT: Rep. Allen Rep. Boyd, who narrowly escaped an August pri- from winning reelection. Polls show a dead SOUTH DAKOTA AT LARGE: heat with ex-state Sen. Joe Heck. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin is running in a mary upset, may find the fall election even bad environment in a tough state for Dem- more challenging in his Republican-orient- ocrats. She faces her toughest challenger ed, Tallahassee-based district. to date in state Rep. Kristi Noem. NEW MEXICO 2ND DISTRICT: In this energy-producing district, Rep. Harry FLORIDA 8TH DISTRICT: Bomb- Teague’s vote for cap-and-trade legislation throwing liberal Rep. ’s ap- may be too much for him to overcome in his TENNESSEE 6TH DISTRICT proach doesn’t reflect the competitive contest against his immediate predecessor, (OPEN): Following the retirement of Rep. nature of this Orlando-area seat. The former Rep. Steve Pearce. Bart Gordon, Democrats could not find a freshman is one of the most cash-flush credible candidate. Republican state Sen. House incumbents but faces a top GOP op- is the all-but-certain winner in ponent. 29TH DISTRICT this 62 percent John McCain district. (OPEN): Democrats have not recovered FLORIDA 24TH DISTRICT: Fresh- from the resignation of Rep. man Rep. was vulnera- and appear to have written off this GOP- TENNESSEE 8TH DISTRICT ble in her GOP-leaning district even before leaning seat. (OPEN): Stephen Fincher became a dar- she flipped from opposing the Democratic ling of the national GOP after his entry into health care plan to supporting it. the race encouraged Rep. John Tanner to AT LARGE: Re- retire. He has a serious contest against state publicans view as one of their best Sen. Roy Herron, who is running competi- contenders and for months public polls have tively despite strong headwinds. INDIANA 8TH DISTRICT (OPEN): shown him with a lead over nine-term Rep. The decision by Rep. Brad Ellsworth to run for the Senate has made this GOP-ori- in this Republican state. ented, Southern Indiana-based seat—62% 2ND DISTRICT: Fresh- for George W. Bush in 2004—a prime Re- man Rep. Glenn Nye picked off a shaky publican pick-up opportunity. 1ST DISTRICT: Freshman Rep. GOP incumbent in a strong Democratic benefited from Obama coat- year to win this Republican-oriented, mil- tails, particularly among African-Americans, itary-heavy seat. and Republicans point to grim polling that KANSAS 3rd DISTRICT (OPEN): The retirement of Rep. Dennis Moore has suggests ex-Rep. Steve Chabot is on a trajec- given Republicans an exceptional oppor- tory to win back his seat in this rematch. VIRGINIA 5TH DISTRICT: Fresh- tunity in a GOP-friendly suburban seat. man Rep. has hit the hustings as hard as any member. But with his voting OHIO 15TH DISTRICT: First-term record—and without Obama driving turn- Rep. Mary Jo Kilroy, who ran more than out this year—it’s an uphill fight in a Repub- 3RD DISTRICT 30,000 votes behind the top-of-the-ticket, lican-leaning district that gave 61% to GOP (OPEN): With Rep. Charlie Melancon run- barely eked out a win in 2008 against Steve Gov. Bob McDonnell in 2009. ning for the Senate, this GOP-oriented dis- Stivers—who is back for a rematch. trict should be a tap in for whichever Repub- lican emerges from the Oct. 2 runoff given WASHINGTON 3RD DISTRICT Obama’s low standing in Louisiana. OHIO 16TH DISTRICT: In this GOP- With the retirement of Rep. Bri- leaning district, freshman Rep. John (OPEN): Boccieri faces a well-funded Republican an Baird, state Rep. Jaime Herrera gives MARYLAND 1ST DISTRICT: En- after casting a potentially costly vote for the GOP an excellent pickup opportunity ergetic freshman Rep. Frank Kratovil cap-and-trade and a high-profile vote for in one of the most evenly balanced dis- faces a steep climb in holding onto this health care reform. tricts in the nation. Eastern Shore-based district that voted If the GOP is winning most of these races on election night, a Republican majority will be close at Majority Makers hand. If not, Democrats still have a chance of waking up Nov. 3 with a slim margin in the House.

ALABAMA 2ND DISTRICT: Rep. of-the-ticket protection this year. Larry Kissell’s reelection bid dicey in this Bobby Bright has done virtually every- swing district. thing possible to distance himself from national Democrats. But in this Republi- MICHIGAN 1ST DISTRICT OHIO 18TH DISTRICT: Rep. Zack can-oriented seat challenger (OPEN): The retirement of Rep. Bart Space’s vote for cap-and-trade will hurt is hammering him by citing his vote for Stupak provides Republicans with an ex- him in his GOP-leaning, coal country Nancy Pelosi as Speaker. cellent chance of picking up this competi- district and his vote against health care tive Upper Peninsula-based seat. reform has labor promising to sit on its

ARIZONA 5TH DISTRICT: In a hands in November. rough year for Democrats, two- MICHIGAN 7TH DISTRICT: This term Rep. Harry Mitchell faces a rematch seat has elected four different members of 5TH DISTRICT: Internal with Republican in a Congress in the past four election cycles. polls for both parties show a competitive race GOP-leaning district. Freshman Rep. Mark Schauer, who won for freshman Rep. Kurt Schrader in a seat that with less than a majority in 2008, faces a George W. Bush narrowly carried twice. rematch with the former congressman he ARKANSAS 1st DISTRICT ousted, Tim Walberg. (OPEN): In a district that gave John Mc- PENNSYLVANIA 3RD DISTRICT: Cain 59 percent in 2008, Chad Causey, a Republican polling suggests that first-term former aide to retiring Rep. Marion Berry, NEW HAMPSHIRE 1ST DIS- Rep. is struggling in her has struggled to unite Democrats after a TRICT: Rep. Carol Shea-Porter appears Erie-based seat, where her health care re- bruising primary. to have stabilized after some very poor form vote has alienated some former allies early polling numbers but this seat is the in the anti-abortion movement. 8TH DISTRICT: In his more Republican of the state’s two con- GOP-oriented district, Rep. Jim Marshall gressional districts. Republicans have a PENNSYLVANIA 8TH DISTRICT: tends to run weaker in midterm elections competitive Sept. 14 primary. In this competitive suburban and Republicans are enthusiastic about district, second-term Rep. Patrick Murphy state Rep. Austin Scott. faces a rematch with former Rep. Mike NEW HAMPSHIRE 2ND DIS- TRICT (OPEN): Of the state’s two Fitzpatrick, whom he defeated in 2006 by ILLINOIS 11TH DISTRICT: It’s no congressional districts, this is the more just over 1,500 votes. cakewalk for Illinois Democrats this year, Democratic. But the likely GOP nominee and it’s especially difficult for a first-term- in this open seat—left vacant by Rep. Paul SOUTH CAROLINA 5TH DIS- er like Rep. Debbie Halvorson, who has a Hodes’s Senate run—is former Rep. Char- TRICT: House Budget Committee chair- tougher GOP foe this time around in Adam lie Bass, who held the seat for six terms man John Spratt is defending the House Kinzinger. until losing in 2006. Democrats’ record—and the failure to pass a new budget—in a district that voted ILLINOIS 14TH DISTRICT: This NEW MEXICO 1st DISTRICT: for John McCain. Aurora-based district, held by the GOP While this Albuquerque-based district has for 70 years (and former House Speaker been trending Democratic, for most of its TEXAS 17TH DISTRICT: Rep. Chet Denny Hastert) until Rep. Bill Foster history it’s been held by a Republican and Edwards has weathered many storms in won it in a 2008 special election, is up polls show a close race between freshman his GOP-friendly district—the most Re- for grabs. Rep. Martin Heinrich and Republican Jon publican district held by any House Demo- Barela. crat—but this will be one of the worst and

INDIANA 2ND DISTRICT: Rep. Joe he faces well-funded oil-man Bill Flores. Donnelly has sought to emphasize his NEW YORK 23RD DISTRICT: Rep. independence in his Republican-leaning Bill Owens, who captured this upstate seat 1ST DISTRICT district but his vote for health care reform after Republicans fractured in a November (OPEN): Republican David McKinley has hurt him with his former allies in the 2009 special election, is vying for his first has a clean shot at this seat against state anti-abortion movement and the economy full term in a district that had been in GOP Sen. , who is still struggling is a key issue in his district. hands for roughly a century. to unite local Democrats after his victory over veteran Rep. Alan Mollohan in the INDIANA 9TH DISTRICT: Rep. Bar- NEW YORK 24TH DISTRICT: After May primary. on Hill ran well ahead of winning a 2008 reelection squeaker in this in 2008 in this Republican-oriented, south- Republican-leaning upstate New York seat, eastern Indiana-based seat but his votes Rep. Michael Arcuri is considered one of the WISCONSIN 7TH DISTRICT for health care reform and especially cap- top GOP targets in New York—and faces a (OPEN): Former MTV Real World star and-trade complicate his reelection pros- rematch with Richard Hanna, who nearly Sean Duffy could make a splash for House pects. defeated him two years ago. Republicans. But first he must survive a competitive contest with state Sen. Julie Lassa for the seat left open by Rep. David IOWA 3RD DISTRICT: Rep. Leonard 8TH DIS- Obey’s retirement. Boswell, recently moved into the toss-up TRICT: Weak fundraising, lower expect- category by the Cook Political Report, fac- ed turnout than in 2008 and a bad envi- es state Sen. Brad Zaun without any top- ronment combine to make freshman Rep. If the Democrats in this category start to fall on election night, Landsliders a wave election is unfolding.

ARIZONA 1ST DISTRICT: First-term ing this Republican-oriented, Lexington- oriented district with ease but self-fund- Rep. has a big cash ad- based district but his cap and trade vote ing Republican Tom Ganley’s spending is vantage in this GOP-leaning district but is already causing him problems in a coal- making it close. immigration, the economy and her health producing state. care reform vote are muddying her reelec- tion prospects. PENNSYLVANIA 4TH DISTRICT: 10TH DIS- Rep. voted against the health TRICT (OPEN): If Republicans are care reform plan and is running ads stress- ARIZONA 8TH DISTRICT: Rep. Ga- ever going to break into the all Demo- ing his independence from his party. While brielle Giffords is well-funded and has cratic, 10-seat Massachusetts House del- he easily dispatched former Rep. Melissa diligently worked her Tucson-based swing egation, this is the seat where it would Hart in a 2008 rematch, this is a Republi- district. But immigration is a white-hot is- happen. Sen. won 60 percent can-trending district that voted for John sue this year in the 8th and her support for of the vote here in the January special McCain by 11 percentage points. the stimulus, cap and trade, health care re- Senate election; not long after, Rep. Bill form and the 2008 financial industry bail- Delahunt announced his retirement. PENNSYLVANIA 10TH DISTRICT: out has left her vulnerable to charges she is hewing too closely to the party line. Rep. Chris Carney has crafted an indepen- MISSOURI 4TH DISTRICT: It’s dent image but this is a Republican-orient- widely acknowledged that this conserva- ed district. Republican has 11th DISTRICT: tive-minded seat will go Republican when been a weak fundraiser but this is the kind Rep. Jerry McNerney won a second term Rep. Ike Skelton retires. The only question of year where it might not matter as much. comfortably in 2008 but George Bush car- is whether it will happen before then, in ried the district twice, voter registration the event the popular veteran incumbent is close to dead even between the parties is dragged down by his national party. PENNSYLVANIA 12TH DIS- and the NRCC has announced it is reserv- Obama got 38% in this district in 2008. TRICT: Rep. , who won a ing ad time in this GOP-friendly seat. closely-contested 2010 special election to succeed the late Rep. , faces NEW JERSEY 3RD DISTRICT: a rematch with Republican Tim Burns for CALIFORNIA 47TH DISTRICT: His- Rep. John Adler, who represents a mar- panic and Vietnamese turnout will play a a full term. ginal, suburban South Jersey district that role in determining the outcome between Republican Gov. Chris Christie carried by Rep. Loretta Sanchez and challenger Van a wide margin in 2009, faces former Phila- TENNESSEE 4TH DISTRICT: Rep. Tran, a state assemblyman, in a district delphia Eagles football star Jon Runyan. Lincoln Davis has shown few signs of that voted for George W. Bush in 2004. weakness since winning the seat in 2002 but this solidly Republican district won’t NEW YORK 1ST DISTRICT. The be easy to hold in the current climate. COLORADO 3RD DISTRICT: Rep. health care reform debate took a toll on John Salazar appeared to have locked down Rep. in a Long Island-based this Republican-oriented, Western Slope- seat with a history of electing Republicans. TEXAS 23RD DISTRICT: Rep. Ciro based seat after a big 2008 win but he’s nev- Rodriguez has worked to expand beyond er run in a climate this bad for Democrats. his San Antonio base in this sprawling NEW YORK 19TH DISTRICT: Rep. district, the largest in Texas. Republican 4th DISTRICT: John Hall has struggled to keep pace with Quico Canseco’s ability to win Hispanic the fundraising of Republican Nan Hay- votes in November will be the key here. Powered by President Barack Obama’s worth and his voting record has been crit- 60 percent performance, Rep. icized as too liberal for a district with a narrowly ousted moderate GOP Rep. slight GOP voter registration advantage. VIRGINIA 9TH DISTRICT: Veteran Chris Shays in 2008. Spending, taxes and Rep. , who represents Vir- Wall Street regulation are key issues in ginia’s coal fields, looks to have his tough- this affluent suburban district. NEW YORK 20TH DISTRICT: Rep. est race since his first reelection in 1984, ’s 2009 special-election win largely because of his support for the in one of New York’s most Republican- House energy bill. FLORIDA 22ND DISTRICT: Two- friendly districts was a setback for the term Rep. faces national tea party GOP. He’s worked hard to win a full term favorite in a competitive South in November but his flip from opposition WASHINGTON 2ND DISTRICT: Florida-based seat. The Republican’s pro- to the health care reform plan to support Rep. Rick Larsen failed to inspire con- lific fundraising is likely to make this one of could prove to be a problem. fidence by finishing behind Republican the most expensive races in the nation. John Koster in the state’s Aug. 17 all-party primary. Larsen narrowly defeated Koster IDAHO 1ST DISTRICT: Freshman Rep. NORTH CAROLINA 11TH DISTRICT: in 2000, 50% to 46%. Walt Minnick has done nearly everything he Rep. Heath Shuler has a huge cash advan- needs to do to build a firewall. The GOP has tage and he may need it all this year in a district that hasn’t voted Democratic at WISCONSIN 8TH DISTRICT: Until been slow to rally around his foe but the dis- Rep. Steve Kagen’s 2006 victory, Republi- trict is overwhelmingly Republican. the presidential level since 1992. cans held this Green Bay-based seat for most of the previous three decades. And George W. Bush carried the district twice KENTUCKY 6TH DISTRICT: Rep. OHIO 13TH DISTRICT: Rep. Betty before Barack Obama won with 54%. Ben Chandler has had no problems hold- Sutton has won and held this Democratic- Seats On The Bubble

COLORADO 7TH DISTRICT: Rep. Ed Perlmutter

CONNECTICUT 5TH DISTRICT: Rep.

GEORGIA 2ND DISTRICT: Rep. Sanford Bishop

GEORGIA 12TH DISTRICT: Rep. John Barrow

ILLINOIS 17TH DISTRICT: Rep. Phil Hare

KENTUCKY 3RD DISTRICT: Rep. John Yarmuth

MICHIGAN 9TH DISTRICT: Rep. Gary Peters

MINNESOTA 1ST DISTRICT: Rep. Tim Walz

MISSOURI 3RD DISTRICT: Rep. Russ Carnahan

NEW YORK 13TH DISTRICT: Rep. Michael McMahon

NEW YORK 25TH DISTRICT: Rep.

VIRGINIA 11TH DISTRICT: Rep. Gerald Connolly

WEST VIRGINIA 3RD DISTRICT: Rep.