If Republicans can’t win most of these seats, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi will take Must Win the gavel again for the 112th Congress. ARKANSAS 2ND DISTRICT (OPEN): overwhelmingly against President Barack PENNSYLVANIA 7TH DISTRICT Obama in 2008. Polling suggests that former prosecutor (OPEN): With Rep. Joe Sestak running Tim Griffin is in a strong position against for the Senate, ex-prosecutor Pat Meehan state Sen. Joyce Elliott for the Little Rock- seems well-positioned to return this Dela- based seat left vacant by the retirement of MISSISSIPPI 1ST DISTRICT: Rep. ware County-based seat to its historic Rep. Vic Snyder. Travis Childers, who captured this north- GOP roots. ern Mississippi-based seat in a May 2008 special election, is swimming against a COLORADO 4TH DISTRICT: Rep. strong tide in his state and faces state Sen. Alan Nunnelee. PENNSYLVANIA 11th DISTRICT: Betsy Markey has taken some tough votes Ethics woes have taken their toll on Rep. in a tough seat. And state Rep. Cory Gard- Paul Kanjorski, who ran five points behind ner is a top challenger in this Republican- Obama in 2008 then failed to win a major- leaning district. NEVADA 3RD DISTRICT: High unem- ity in the May primary. ployment and home foreclosure rates in the Las Vegas area are among the issues threat- ening to prevent first-term Rep. Dina Titus FLORIDA 2ND DISTRICT: Rep. Allen Rep. Boyd, who narrowly escaped an August pri- from winning reelection. Polls show a dead SOUTH DAKOTA AT LARGE: heat with ex-state Sen. Joe Heck. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin is running in a mary upset, may find the fall election even bad environment in a tough state for Dem- more challenging in his Republican-orient- ocrats. She faces her toughest challenger ed, Tallahassee-based district. to date in state Rep. Kristi Noem. NEW MEXICO 2ND DISTRICT: In this energy-producing district, Rep. Harry FLORIDA 8TH DISTRICT: Bomb- Teague’s vote for cap-and-trade legislation throwing liberal Rep. Alan Grayson’s ap- may be too much for him to overcome in his TENNESSEE 6TH DISTRICT proach doesn’t reflect the competitive contest against his immediate predecessor, (OPEN): Following the retirement of Rep. nature of this Orlando-area seat. The former Rep. Steve Pearce. Bart Gordon, Democrats could not find a freshman is one of the most cash-flush credible candidate. Republican state Sen. House incumbents but faces a top GOP op- Diane Black is the all-but-certain winner in ponent. NEW YORK 29TH DISTRICT this 62 percent John McCain district. (OPEN): Democrats have not recovered FLORIDA 24TH DISTRICT: Fresh- from the resignation of Rep. Eric Massa man Rep. Suzanne Kosmas was vulnera- and appear to have written off this GOP- TENNESSEE 8TH DISTRICT ble in her GOP-leaning district even before leaning seat. (OPEN): Stephen Fincher became a dar- she flipped from opposing the Democratic ling of the national GOP after his entry into health care plan to supporting it. the race encouraged Rep. John Tanner to NORTH DAKOTA AT LARGE: Re- retire. He has a serious contest against state publicans view Rick Berg as one of their best Sen. Roy Herron, who is running competi- contenders and for months public polls have tively despite strong headwinds. INDIANA 8TH DISTRICT (OPEN): shown him with a lead over nine-term Rep. The decision by Rep. Brad Ellsworth to run for the Senate has made this GOP-ori- Earl Pomeroy in this Republican state. ented, Southern Indiana-based seat—62% VIRGINIA 2ND DISTRICT: Fresh- for George W. Bush in 2004—a prime Re- man Rep. Glenn Nye picked off a shaky publican pick-up opportunity. OHIO 1ST DISTRICT: Freshman Rep. GOP incumbent in a strong Democratic Steve Driehaus benefited from Obama coat- year to win this Republican-oriented, mil- tails, particularly among African-Americans, itary-heavy seat. and Republicans point to grim polling that KANSAS 3rd DISTRICT (OPEN): The retirement of Rep. Dennis Moore has suggests ex-Rep. Steve Chabot is on a trajec- given Republicans an exceptional oppor- tory to win back his seat in this rematch. VIRGINIA 5TH DISTRICT: Fresh- tunity in a GOP-friendly suburban seat. man Rep. Tom Perriello has hit the hustings as hard as any member. But with his voting OHIO 15TH DISTRICT: First-term record—and without Obama driving turn- Rep. Mary Jo Kilroy, who ran more than out this year—it’s an uphill fight in a Repub- LOUISIANA 3RD DISTRICT 30,000 votes behind the top-of-the-ticket, lican-leaning district that gave 61% to GOP (OPEN): With Rep. Charlie Melancon run- barely eked out a win in 2008 against Steve Gov. Bob McDonnell in 2009. ning for the Senate, this GOP-oriented dis- Stivers—who is back for a rematch. trict should be a tap in for whichever Repub- lican emerges from the Oct. 2 runoff given WASHINGTON 3RD DISTRICT Obama’s low standing in Louisiana. OHIO 16TH DISTRICT: In this GOP- With the retirement of Rep. Bri- leaning district, freshman Rep. John (OPEN): Boccieri faces a well-funded Republican an Baird, state Rep. Jaime Herrera gives MARYLAND 1ST DISTRICT: En- after casting a potentially costly vote for the GOP an excellent pickup opportunity ergetic freshman Rep. Frank Kratovil cap-and-trade and a high-profile vote for in one of the most evenly balanced dis- faces a steep climb in holding onto this health care reform. tricts in the nation. Eastern Shore-based district that voted If the GOP is winning most of these races on election night, a Republican majority will be close at Majority Makers hand. If not, Democrats still have a chance of waking up Nov. 3 with a slim margin in the House. ALABAMA 2ND DISTRICT: Rep. of-the-ticket protection this year. Larry Kissell’s reelection bid dicey in this Bobby Bright has done virtually every- swing district. thing possible to distance himself from national Democrats. But in this Republi- MICHIGAN 1ST DISTRICT OHIO 18TH DISTRICT: Rep. Zack can-oriented seat challenger Martha Roby (OPEN): The retirement of Rep. Bart Space’s vote for cap-and-trade will hurt is hammering him by citing his vote for Stupak provides Republicans with an ex- him in his GOP-leaning, coal country Nancy Pelosi as Speaker. cellent chance of picking up this competi- district and his vote against health care tive Upper Peninsula-based seat. reform has labor promising to sit on its ARIZONA 5TH DISTRICT: In a hands in November. rough year for Arizona Democrats, two- MICHIGAN 7TH DISTRICT: This term Rep. Harry Mitchell faces a rematch seat has elected four different members of OREGON 5TH DISTRICT: Internal with Republican David Schweikert in a Congress in the past four election cycles. polls for both parties show a competitive race GOP-leaning district. Freshman Rep. Mark Schauer, who won for freshman Rep. Kurt Schrader in a seat that with less than a majority in 2008, faces a George W. Bush narrowly carried twice. rematch with the former congressman he ARKANSAS 1st DISTRICT ousted, Tim Walberg. (OPEN): In a district that gave John Mc- PENNSYLVANIA 3RD DISTRICT: Cain 59 percent in 2008, Chad Causey, a Republican polling suggests that first-term former aide to retiring Rep. Marion Berry, NEW HAMPSHIRE 1ST DIS- Rep. Kathy Dahlkemper is struggling in her has struggled to unite Democrats after a TRICT: Rep. Carol Shea-Porter appears Erie-based seat, where her health care re- bruising primary. to have stabilized after some very poor form vote has alienated some former allies early polling numbers but this seat is the in the anti-abortion movement. GEORGIA 8TH DISTRICT: In his more Republican of the state’s two con- GOP-oriented district, Rep. Jim Marshall gressional districts. Republicans have a PENNSYLVANIA 8TH DISTRICT: tends to run weaker in midterm elections competitive Sept. 14 primary. In this competitive suburban Philadelphia and Republicans are enthusiastic about district, second-term Rep. Patrick Murphy state Rep. Austin Scott. faces a rematch with former Rep. Mike NEW HAMPSHIRE 2ND DIS- TRICT (OPEN): Of the state’s two Fitzpatrick, whom he defeated in 2006 by ILLINOIS 11TH DISTRICT: It’s no congressional districts, this is the more just over 1,500 votes. cakewalk for Illinois Democrats this year, Democratic. But the likely GOP nominee and it’s especially difficult for a first-term- in this open seat—left vacant by Rep. Paul SOUTH CAROLINA 5TH DIS- er like Rep. Debbie Halvorson, who has a Hodes’s Senate run—is former Rep. Char- TRICT: House Budget Committee chair- tougher GOP foe this time around in Adam lie Bass, who held the seat for six terms man John Spratt is defending the House Kinzinger. until losing in 2006. Democrats’ record—and the failure to pass a new budget—in a district that voted ILLINOIS 14TH DISTRICT: This NEW MEXICO 1st DISTRICT: for John McCain. Aurora-based district, held by the GOP While this Albuquerque-based district has for 70 years (and former House Speaker been trending Democratic, for most of its TEXAS 17TH DISTRICT: Rep. Chet Denny Hastert) until Rep. Bill Foster history it’s been held by a Republican and Edwards has weathered many storms in won it in a 2008 special election, is up polls show a close race between freshman his GOP-friendly district—the most Re- for grabs. Rep. Martin Heinrich and Republican Jon publican district held by any House Demo- Barela. crat—but this will be one of the worst and INDIANA 2ND DISTRICT: Rep. Joe he faces well-funded oil-man Bill Flores. Donnelly has sought to emphasize his NEW YORK 23RD DISTRICT: Rep. independence in his Republican-leaning Bill Owens, who captured this upstate seat WEST VIRGINIA 1ST DISTRICT district but his vote for health care reform after Republicans fractured in a November (OPEN): Republican David McKinley has hurt him with his former allies in the 2009 special election, is vying for his first has a clean shot at this seat against state anti-abortion movement and the economy full term in a district that had been in GOP Sen.