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Responses of Climate Change on Natural Terrestrial Ecosystems in Norway

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Responses of Climate Change on Natural Terrestrial Ecosystems in Norway 029 Responses of Climate Change on Natural Terrestrial Ecosystems in Norway Jarle I. Holten P.D. Carey NINA NORSK INSTITUIT FOR NATURFORSKNING ResponsesofClimate Change on NaturalTerrestrial EcosystemsinNorway JarleI. Holten P.D.Carey NORSKlNSTIM7 FORNA=FORSKNING nina forskningsrapport029 Draft report January1992 NINAs publikasjoner Holten, J.I.& Carey,P.D.1992. Responsesofnatural terrestrial ecosystemsto climate change in Norway. - NINA Forskningsrap- NINAutgir seksulike faste publikasjoner: port 29: 1-59., NINA Forskningsrapport ISSN0802-3093 Herpubliseresresultaterav NINAseget forskningsarbeid,i den hensiktå spreforskningsresultaterfra institusjonentil et større ISBN82-426-0198-4 publikum. Forskningsrapporterutgis som et alternativ til inter- nasjonalpublisering, der tidsaspekt, materialetsart, målgrup- Classificationof the publication: pe mm. gjør dette nødvendig. Pollutionecology Copyright NINA NINA Utredning Norwegian Institute for Nature Research Serienomfatter problemoversikter,kartlegging av kunnskaps- nivået innen et emne, litteraturstudier, sammenstillihg av andresmaterialeog annet som ikke primært er et resultat av NINAsegenforskningsaktivitet. NINA Oppdragsmelding Dette er det minimum av rapportering som NINA gir til opp- dragsgiver etter fullført forsknings- eller utredningsprosjekt. Opplageter begrenset. NINA Notat Sèrieninneholder symposie-referater,korte faglige redegjørel- ser, statusrapporter, prosjektskissero.l. i hovedsakrettet mot NINAsegneansatteeller kollegerog institusjonersomarbeider -medtilsvarendeemner. Opplageter begrenset. NINA Temahefter Dissebehandlerspesielletema og utarbeidesetter behovfor å informere om viktige problemstillinger i samfunnet. Målgrup- pen er "allmenheten" eller særskiltegrupper, f.eks. landbru- Edition: EliFremstadand SynnøveFløVanvik, NINA ket, fylkesmennenesmiljøvernavdelinger,turist- og friluftsliv- skretsero.l. De gis derfor en mer populærfaglig form og med Design& layout: mer bruk avillustrasjonerenn ovennevntepublikasjoner. KlausBrinkmann NINA,Ås-NLH NINA Fakta-ark Printedby: BjærumGrafiskNS Hensikten med disse er å gjøre de viktigste resultatene av NINAsfagligevirksomhet og som er publisert andre steder, Edition:800 tilgjengelig for et større publikum (presse,ideelleorganisasjo- ner, naturforvaltningen på ulike nivåer,politikereog interesser- Adress: te enkeltpersoner). NINA Tungasletta2 I tillegg publiserer NINA-ansattesine forskningsresultateri in- N-7005Trondheim, Norway ternasjonalevitenskapelige journaler, gjennom populærfagli- Telephone+47-7-58 05 00 getidsskrifterog aviser. fl Telefax+47-7-91 54 33 2 nina forskningsrapport 029 Abstract Referat Holten, J.I. & Carey, P.D. 1992. Responses of climate change on Holten, J.I. & Carey, P.D. 1992. Reaksjoner på klimaforandringer natural terrestrial ecosystems in Norway. - NINA Forskningsrap- i naturlige terrestriske økosystemer i Norge. - NINA Forsknings- port 29: 1-59. rapport 29: 1-59. This report discusses possible effects of climatic and hydrological Denne rapporten diskuterer mulig virkninger av klimatiske og hy- changes oh Norwegian terrestrial ecosystems. Norway is tenta- drologiske endringer på norske landøkosystemer. Basert på tively subdivided into four ecoclimatic sensitivity regions, based norske scenarier for klima og hydrologi er landet forsøksvis inn- on Norwegian climatic and hydrological scenarios. The most sen- delt i 4 økoklimatiske følsomhetsregioner. Den mest følsomme sitive region is suggested to be alpine ecosystems including regionen er antatt å være fjelløkosystemer sammen med fjell- mountain forests (region l). The ecologically most significant fac- skog (region I). Viktigste faktor for økologiske endringer i region tor for the changes in region I is snow cover and hydrology. The I er endringer i snødekke og hydrologi. Flate elvesletter (region flat river valley bottom region (region IV) is suggested to have IV), antas å ha samme følsomhet som region I. Smelting av per- the same sensitivity as region I. Melting of permafrost can lead mafrost kan føre til store endringer i Svalbards økosystemer. I to substantial changes in Svalbard's ecosystems. In the forest re- skogregionen (region II) kan furu bli favorisert på bekostning av gion (region II) Scots pine may be favoured on the eXpense of gran. Almesyke (Dutch elm disease) kan redusere og knekke Norway spruce. Dutch elm disease may reduce or even eradicate mange almebestander i region II. Naturlige og antropogene most elm populations in region Il. Natural and anthropogenic mi- (fragmentering) spredningsbarrierer vil kraftig forsinke innvand- gration barriers will delay the invasion of temperate and oceanic ring av sørlige og vestlige plantearter. Det forventes en økt biodi- plant species. One may expect enhanced biodiversity in the hem- versitet i hemiboreal og sørboreal sone i Sør-Norge, mens Midt- iboreal and southern boreal zone in South Norway, whereas Norge kan få senket biodiversitet på lengre sikt. Fra eksisterende Central Norway may have jowered biodiversity in the long run. lister over sjeldne og truete plantearter er 12 arter antatt å bli From existing lists of rare and threatened plants, 12 species are truet (direkte eller indirekte) av utrydding. En ikke-tineær utvi- suggested to be threatened (directly or indirectly) by climate klingstype er forventet i de fleste økosystemer utløst av en change. A non-linear type of ecosystem changes is expected in høyere frekvens og styrke av ekstreme værepisoder. Fastsettelse most ecosystems, triggered by a higher frequency and intensity av kritiske hastigheter og grenser for klimaendringer og toleran- of extreme weather events. The assessment of critical rates and se-grenser for arter, vil forutsette en mye større kunnskap om levels of clirnatic change and tolerance limits for species, will de- økosystemenes dynamikk og prosesser, spesielt demografiske pend on much better knowledge on ecosystem dynamics and prosesser. "Økoton-metoden" er anbefalt både innenfor forsk- processes, especially demographic processes. The ecotonal boun- ning og overvåking. For organisering av virkningsstudier av kli- dary method is recommended both for research and monitoring. maendringer og monitoring i terrestriske økosystemer er aksen For the organizing of climate impact research and monitoring in ICSU-IGBP-GCTEanbefalt. terrestrial environments, the axis ICSU-IGBP-GCTE is recom- mended. Emneord: økoklimatisk følsomhet - ikke-lineær respons - ekstre- me værepisoder - åpninger (gap) - økoton-metoden GCTE. Key words: Ecoclimatic sensitivity - non-linear response - extreme events - gaps - demographic processes - ecotonal boundary Jarle Inge Holten, Norsk institutt for naturforskning, Tungasletta method - GCTE. 2, 7005 Trondheim. Peter D. Carey, Institute of Terrestrial Ecology, Monks Wood Ex- Jarle Inge Holten, Norwegian Institute for Nature Research, Tun- perimental Station, Abbots Ripton, Huntingdon, Cambridgeshire gasletta 2, N-7005 Trondheim, Norway. PE17 2LS, UK. Peter D. Carey, Institute of Terrestrial Ecology, Monks Wood Ex- perimental Station, Abbots Ripton, Huntingdon, Cambridgeshire PE17 2LS, UK. 3 nina forskningsrapport 029 Contents Page Page Abstract 3 9 Summaty 47 Referat 3 10 Sammendrag 50 Preface 5 11 References 54 1 Introduction 5 Appendix: Listof plantnames(Scientific,Norwegian, English) 56 2 Climatescenarios 6 3 Background 9 3.1 "State-of-the-art"ecologicalscenarios 9 3.2 Directand indirecteffectsof increasedlevelsof carbondioxidein the atrnosphere 9 4 Sensitivityof biomesto climatechange 10 4.1 Temperatezone(nemoralzone) 10 4.2 Hemiborealzone 14 4.3 Borealzone 15 4.4 Alpinezone 17 4.5 Arcticzone 18 5 Correlativemodelfor distributionof types of physiologicalresponse 20 5.1 Introduction 20 5.2 Predictions 20 6 Effectsof climatechangeon the biodiversity of plantcommunitiesand rarespecies 32 6.1 Effectsof climatechangeon the biodiversity of plantcornmunities 32 6.2 Effectsof climatechangeon rarespecies 32 7 Researchand monitoringneeds 35 7.1 Researchneeds 35 7.2 Monitoringneeds 39 8 Concludingremarks 42 8.1 General 42 8.2 Regionaleffectsof climatechangeon the speciescommunityand biomelevels 42 8.3 Effectson biodiversity,rareor threatenedplants 43 8.4 Criticallevelsand ratesof changeandtolerance limitsof speciesand communities 45 nina forskningsrapport029 Preface 1 Introduction This project is Norway's contribution to IPCC's Supplementary The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has Report on Natural Terrestrial Ecosystems (related to climate asked NINA, in a letter dated 26th September 1991, to contrib- change). The project has been a co-operative venture between ute to a reassessment of the IPCC working group II (Impacts) re- the United Kingdom, ITE (Institute of Terrestrial Ecology), and port "Ecological impacts of climate change" . It was requested Norway, NINA (Norwegian Institute for Nature Research). The that a report be prepared with the aims of providing new infor- work would not have been possible without funding from the mation and using recently obtained results to fill in gaps left in Directorate for Nature Management, Trondheim. I would like to the first report. This supplementary report is scheduled to be fin- acknowledge Dr. Peter Carey for his many original contributions alised in February 1992. to the report and for additional discussions. I would also like to thank Richard Binns for linguistic corrections. We have specifically been asked to provide information on three short-term objectives: 1 Identify present studies on the impacts of climate
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