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A University of Sussex DPhil thesis Available online via Sussex Research Online: http://sro.sussex.ac.uk/ This thesis is protected by copyright which belongs to the author. This thesis cannot be reproduced or quoted extensively from without first obtaining permission in writing from the Author The content must not be changed in any way or sold commercially in any format or medium without the formal permission of the Author When referring to this work, full bibliographic details including the author, title, awarding institution and date of the thesis must be given Please visit Sussex Research Online for more information and further details Non-Conventional Armament Linkages: Nuclear, Biological and Chemical Weapons in the United Kingdom and Iraq Robert D. Lovsin Doctor of Philosophy Science & Technology Policy University of Sussex December 2010 I hereby declare that this dissertation has not been, and will not be, submitted to this or any other university for the award of any other degree. ABSTRACT This dissertation examines the reasons why states want to acquire non- conventional weapons and analyzes interconnections between decisions on nuclear weapons (NW) on the one hand and chemical/biological weapons (CBW) on the other. Much of the literature on non-conventional weapons has tended to focus either on nuclear weapons or on CBW, with CBW often portrayed as the “poor man’s nuclear bomb.” While there is some truth in this, the interconnections between decisions to develop NW and decisions to develop CBW are more numerous, more varied and more nuanced. The dissertation examines non-conventional armament processes in the United Kingdom and Iraq. Using two disparate cases provides the analysis with a comprehensive data set, the lessons from which have formed the basis of the analysis. Having nuclear, biological and chemical (NBC) weapons for the purpose of use is not always a state’s ultimate goal and factors as wide-ranging as national prestige and the maintenance of international relationships are important in determining why some states decide to pursue NBC weapons. The case study findings have been synthesized into four key areas in which NBC linkages are particularly significant: strategic issues and strategic cultures; political considerations; economics and finances; and future challenges. The key finding is that there are interconnections that show how NW and CBW influence each other. For example, both the UK and Iraq showed that if nuclear weapons were not available, interest in CBW would increase. Conversely, possession of nuclear weapons does not necessarily rule out interest in acquiring CBW armament. Non-conventional weapons present a significant challenge to the maintenance of international peace and security. As this dissertation demonstrates, NBC weapons are linked on many levels and it is important to understand how CBW can and do influence policy on nuclear weapons and vice versa. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This dissertation would not have been possible without the guidance and support of a few key people. First of all I would like to extend my gratitude and sincerest thanks to Julian Robinson. Having the opportunity to work alongside one of the most respected and erudite scholars in the field has been a thoroughly rewarding experience. His enthusiasm over the duration of this research project has been nothing short of inspirational. I once heard someone refer to Julian as “the expert’s expert.” I could not agree more. Thank you Julian. I would like to thank the staff at the Harvard Sussex Program for everything they have done to help make this process as straightforward as possible. It takes the assistance and understanding of a great many people to help see a doctoral research project through to its completion and I am beholden to all those who have helped. Having access to the Sussex Harvard Information Bank (SHIB) has been a great asset as it is the single, largest collection of CBW-relevant information around. It helped to simplify the research phase of the project, much to my satisfaction. It has been an honour and a privilege to call the Harvard Sussex Program home for the past four years. I would also like to thank the staff at the Mountbatten Centre for International Studies at the University of Southampton for their considerable assistance with the nuclear component of this dissertation and for allowing me access to the John Slater Collection. Also, the staff at The National Archives, Kew, London, were of great help during those long days spent in the document reading room. On a personal note, I would like to offer my deepest, heartfelt thanks to my wonderful partner Catherine Jefferson. Words cannot express how much more enjoyable you have made the past four years. Without your knowledge, understanding, patience, help and lovely smile, I am not sure how I would have made it through. I am indebted to you beyond imagination. Thank you, thank you, thank you. Lastly, I want to thank my parents Dan and Rose. To suggest that I could not have done this without their help would be an understatement of epic proportions. Their support has been unconditional, their patience unwavering, their commitment resolute. I am, and always will be, eternally grateful. Together, they have made this possible and for that I dedicate this DPhil dissertation to them. I TABLE OF CONTENTS TABLE OF CONTENTS _______________________________________________ I LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS ____________________________________________ IV LIST OF TABLES ___________________________________________________ VII INTRODUCTION _______________________________________________ 1 RESEARCH QUESTIONS _____________________________________________ 3 NBC WEAPONS – DEFINITIONS AND TERMS _____________________________ 6 DISSERTATION STRUCTURE __________________________________________ 11 SUMMARY _______________________________________________________ 13 CHAPTER 1 – THEORY __________________________________________ 15 BUREAUCRATIC POLITICS____________________________________________ 17 HISTORICAL ANALYSIS _____________________________________________ 22 STRATEGIC THOUGHT ______________________________________________ 24 SUMMARY _______________________________________________________ 29 CHAPTER 2 – METHODS ________________________________________ 32 SINGLE V. MULTIPLE CASES__________________________________________ 34 SELECTION CRITERIA _______________________________________________ 35 JUSTIFICATIONS ___________________________________________________ 36 SOURCES ________________________________________________________ 39 ANALYSIS OF OFFICIAL DOCUMENTS AND OTHER PRIMARY SOURCES _________ 39 ANALYSIS OF SECONDARY LITERATURE SOURCES_________________________ 41 INTERVIEWS ______________________________________________________ 42 ELITE INTERVIEWS _________________________________________________ 44 FIELDWORK ______________________________________________________ 46 SUMMARY _______________________________________________________ 47 CHAPTER 3 – THE UNITED KINGDOM____________________________ 49 CHEMICAL WEAPONS PROGRAMME __________________________________ 52 II THE INTERWAR YEARS______________________________________________ 55 THE SECOND WORLD WAR AND POSTWAR PERIOD ________________________ 58 BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS PROGRAMME_________________________________ 63 BW AND THE SECOND WORLD WAR ___________________________________ 64 PROJECT RED ADMIRAL AND BW TESTING ______________________________ 68 NUCLEAR WEAPONS PROGRAMME ___________________________________ 72 MAUD COMMITTEE AND WARTIME COLLABORATION ______________________ 73 BRITISH DEFENCE ECONOMICS AND POSTWAR PROGRESS ___________________ 80 OPERATION HURRICANE ____________________________________________ 89 ON THE HUNT FOR FUSION ___________________________________________ 91 CABINETS AND COMMITTEES________________________________________ 97 BRITISH BUREAUCRATIC POLITICS _____________________________________ 98 CONCLUSION_____________________________________________________ 104 CHAPTER 4 – IRAQ______________________________________________ 107 NUCLEAR WEAPONS PROGRAMME ___________________________________ 110 EXPANSION ______________________________________________________ 112 ENRICHMENT PROGRAMMES _________________________________________ 113 PERSIAN GULF WAR AND AFTERMATH _________________________________ 117 CHEMICAL WEAPONS PROGRAMME __________________________________ 122 THE IRAN-IRAQ WAR _______________________________________________ 124 DESERT STORM AND UNSCOM_______________________________________ 130 BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS PROGRAMME_________________________________ 136 THE UNSCOM YEARS______________________________________________ 139 REGIME DECISION-MAKING ________________________________________ 142 IRAQI ECONOMICS _________________________________________________ 148 BYZANTINE BUREAUCRATIC POLITICS __________________________________ 151 CONCLUSION_____________________________________________________ 156 CHAPTER 5 – CONNECTIONS ____________________________________ 160 STRATEGIC ISSUES AND STRATEGIC CULTURES _________________________ 162 HEDGING ONE’S BETS ______________________________________________ 164 DETERRENCE: THREATS AND RESPONSES _______________________________ 167 THE 1963 DECISION AND FLEXIBLE RESPONSE ___________________________ 172 III RETALIATORY CAPABILITIES _________________________________________ 177 SECURITY ASSURANCES _____________________________________________ 180 POLITICAL CONSIDERATIONS _______________________________________ 183 INDIVIDUALS OF INFLUENCE__________________________________________
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