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1 Historical Legacies: Identity and Secessionism in the Republic of Moldova by Michael Cavallo MPP Essay Submitted to Oregon St Historical Legacies: Identity and Secessionism in the Republic of Moldova By Michael Cavallo MPP Essay Submitted to Oregon State University In partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Public Policy Presented June 6, 2016 Commencement June 11, 2016 1 Master of Public Policy essay of Michael Cavallo presented on June 6, 2016 APPROVED: ______________________________________________________________________________ Sarah Henderson, representing Political Science ______________________________________________________________________________ Alison Johnston, representing Political Science ______________________________________________________________________________ Dwaine Plaza, representing Sociology I understand that my thesis will become part of the permanent scholarly collection of Oregon State University libraries. My signature below authorizes release of my essay to any reader upon request. ______________________________________________________________________________ Michael Cavallo, Author 2 AN ABSTRACT OF THE THESIS OF Michael J. Cavallo for the degree of Master of Public Policy presented on June 6, 2016 Title: Historical Legacies: Identity and Secessionism in the Republic of Moldova Abstracted approved: ______________________________________________________________________________ Sarah Henderson Since the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, many newly independent nations have suffered internal instability as a result of ethnically based regional independence initiatives. This paper seeks to determine the effect historical legacies have on the formation of ethnic identities and the shaping of secessionist movements, using the conflict between the Transnistria region and the Republic of Moldova as a case study. The paper adopts two traditions — constructivist theory of ethnic identity and materialist theoretical framework of secessionist mobilization — to explain the origins and dynamics of the Transnistrian conflict. In sum, Soviet policies of Russianization, Russification, and Sovietization successfully created a separate identity which was then exploited by regional elites. So far, regional actors such as the EU and OSCE have misdiagnosed the cause of the conflict, and thus have advocated ineffective solutions. Given that a similar situation is currently underway in Ukraine, it is critical that we understand the correct drivers behind ethnic conflict within the former Soviet Union . 3 TABLE OF CONTENTS Page INTRODUCTION & STATEMENT OF PROBLEM 5 BACKGROUND 9 LITERATURE REVIEW 21 METHODS 32 DATA 33 DISCUSSION 54 POLICY IMPLICATIONS 57 CONCLUSION 58 REFERENCES 60 4 INTRODUCTION AND STATEMENT OF PROBLEM The end of the Cold War and the dissolution of the Soviet Union heralded change in Europe's borders not seen since the end of World War I. Twenty-four new nations, 15 of which once constituted the Soviet Union, were formed, either as a result of ethnic, religious, and cultural distinctions or largely as a legacy of supranational decisions or treaties. The collapse of the USSR in 1991 surprised many Soviet scholars and specialists, but upon analysis, the descent of the successor states into ethnic division was not surprising (Beissinger, 2002 pp. 3-8). The Soviet Union, and many of its predecessor countries, had been a multi-ethnic state of nationalities that, once released from a central hegemonic yoke, erupted in separatist movements across the region: Chechens and Tartars in Russia, Armenians in Azerbaijan, and Ossetians in Georgia. What these movements shared in common was the presence of a concentrated and distinct ethnic identity that sought increased rights and independence from its disparate ruling nation. Separatism is the attempt to gain increased political and territorial autonomy for a group from the larger national state (Samarasinghe, Premdas, & Anderson, 1990 p. 2). There were at least 22 active separatist movements by the end the millennium's first decade (Beary, 2008). The near totality of these movements is the result of ethnic tensions between a localized endemic group and its greater ruling state. The Republic of Moldova, a small country landlocked between Romania and Ukraine, is described as an outlier in the understanding of what foments separatism. Though Moldova hosts two distinct separatist regions, Gagauzia and Transnistria, the latter is a critical case as a result of the role and origin of elites and the mobilization of a new and unique ethnic identity. 5 The autonomous region of Gagauzia in Southern Moldova is described as following the traditional model of separatism due to its concentration of ethnic Gagauz who share a distinct culture, language, religion, and whose vast majority are found in Moldova (King, 2000 p. 209). The Gagauz people are a Turkic-speaking Christian Orthodox group of disputed origin that ultimately settled in Moldova's current borders following the Russo-Turkish War of the late eighteenth century (Beissinger, 2002 p.225). Transnistria, the second separatist region, does not share the development model of Gagauzia or other contemporary separatist and secessionist movements. Scholars and ethnographers report that there is no distinct titular Transnistrian, or majority, ethnic population that we would traditionally define to be united and mobilized against the central government (King, 2010 p. 108). The claim is underwritten by the fact that the ethnic identity self-expressed in the most recent Transnistrian census, 1989, preceding the separatist secessionist fervor reported near equal population percentages of Russians and Ukrainians (25.5% and 28.3 respectively) with a slight majority of Moldovans (39.9%) (King, 2010 p. 112). As a result, scholars provide another reason for the conflict and secession. Current scholarship on Transnistrian separatism defines it as a conflict between political elites and a type of proxy war between the east and the west with individual nations attempting to meddle in the dispute (King, 1997 pp. 72-74). The role and degree to which outside actors have played in the Transnistrian conflict is not disputed. As an example, the Russian 14th Army actively supported separatist forces during the 1992 Transnistria War. Elements of the Russian military, reformed into the Operational Group of Russian Forces in Moldova, are still garrisoned in Transnistria and Russia continues to provide non-humanitarian economic and material support to the separatist government (Kolstoe, 1995 p. 160; King, 2010 p. 118.) Influence from the West is just as robust. The U.S. and Europe provide project funding and military aid and training to increase economic 6 ties with Western Europe and deter Russian regional military aggression (MCC, 2010; Goodman & Khmolovska, 2015). However, to exclude or avoid the role identity plays can miss crucial elements of the Transnistrian issue. To understand the Transnistrian case appropriately, it is best to determine how ethnicity is created and categorized especially within the confines and context of Moldova. Ethnicity is defined as a group of people who share a common culture, language, religion, and identity (Hewitt & Cheetham, 2000 p. xi). The constructivist theory of ethnic identity states that ethnicity is not a set and immutable condition (Llobera, 1999). Through deliberate historical Russian and Soviet policies, persons residing in Transnistria have formed a separate and distinct ethnic identity titled homo sovieticus (also known as sovetskii chelovek; named after the Soviet process of removing all historical and cultural characteristics of groups in the USSR to create a single trans-national identity) (Wanner, 1998 p. 49). These qualities that define ethnicity are found in the residents of Transnistria. I refer to this constructed ethnic identity as sovetskii narod (Rus. Soviet People)1. Ethnic identity can, and did, change and shift depending on the economic, social, and political processes within Transnistria as a result of its population density and aims of central leaders. Central state leaders in Moscow intentionally constructed a politically reliable core, which resulted in the new ethnic construction, on the east bank of the Dniester river to control the Moldovan republic by integrating the region into the Soviet core through the presence and increased interaction of sovietizing and russifying state institutions with the population, employment of three-quarters of the residents in the Soviet military-industrial complex, and rewarding the region and individuals politically and economically for sovetskii chelovek. 1Brezhnev created and first used the term sovetskii narod during a speech in 1971 (Nahaylo &Swoboda, 1990 p. 172-3) 7 Using archival research and secondary sources, I will conduct a holistic single case study on the presence and effectiveness of the intentional aforementioned hegemonic policies on the Republic of Moldova and its historical predecessors. My scholarship will focus on policies that affected language, religious, educational, social, political, and economic structures. In addition, I will explain the role Transnistrian elites had in providing a narrative of ethnic denigration to mobilize the region's residents towards separatism to maintain political, material, and economic power. The unresolved status of Transnistria presents a regional, and potentially larger, security risk. The former senior military commander of NATO forces in Europe, U.S. Air Force General Philip M. Breedlove, has stated that this region will be "Europe's next crisis point" following the annexation
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