The Strategy of Conquest Marcin Dziubi´nski∗ Sanjeev Goyaly David E. N. Minarschz January 13, 2017 Abstract In the study of war, a recurring observation is that conflict between two opponents is shaped by third parties. The actions of these parties are in turn influenced by other proximate players. These considerations lead us to propose a model with multiple inter- connected opponents. We study the influence of resources, technology, and the network of connections, on the dynamics of war and on the prospects of peace. Keywords Hegemony, preventive war, buffer states, imperial overreach, offensive and defensive realism ∗Institute of Informatics, Faculty of Mathematics, Informatics and Mechanics, University of Warsaw, Email:
[email protected] yFaculty of Economics and Christ's College, University of Cambridge. Email:
[email protected] zFaculty of Economics and Girton College, University of Cambridge, Email:
[email protected]. We are grateful to Leonie Baumann, Sihua Ding, Matt Elliott, Edoardo Gallo, Gustavo Nicolas Paez and Bryony Reich for detailed comments on an earlier draft of the paper. The authors are also indebted to Francis Bloch, Vince Crawford, Bhaskar Dutta, Joan Esteban, Dan Kovenock, Dunia Lopez-Pintado, Kai Konrad, Meg Meyer, Herve Moulin, Wojciech Olszewski, Robert Powell, Debraj Ray, Stefano Recchia, Phil Reny, Bruno Strulovici, Ayse Zarakol, and participants at a number of seminars for suggestions and encouragement. Dziubi´nskiacknowledges support from Polish National Science Centre through Grant 2014/13/B/ST6/01807. Goyal acknowledges support from a Keynes Fellowship. Goyal and Minarsch acknowledge support from the Cambridge-INET Institute. 1 Introduction The study of the causes of wars and their implications dates back to antiquity; today, it is an active subject of research across the social sciences, and also in history and political philosophy.