Volume 9 ï Number 1 ï January 2020 Volume 9 ï Number 1 ï January 2020 Volume 9 ï Number 1 January 2020 www.allazimuth.com All Azimuth All Azimuth Aims and Scope All Azimuth, journal of the Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research, is an English-language, ALL-AZIMUTH: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace international peer-reviewed journal, published biannually. It aims: Cilt/Volume: 9 • Sayı/Number: 1 • January 2020 • to provide a forum for academic studies on foreign policy analysis, peace and development research, • to publish pieces bridging the theory-practice gap; dealing with under-represented conceptual Type of Publication/ Yayın Türü: International Periodical / Yaygın Süreli Yayın approaches in the field; and making scholarly engagements in the dialogue between the Publishing Period & Language / Yayın Periyodu & Dili: Biannual-English/6 aylık- İngilizce “center” and the “periphery“, • to encourage publications with homegrown theoretical and philosophical approaches. • to transcend conventional theoretical, methodological, geographical, academic and cultural boundaries, • to highlight works of senior and promising young scholars, • to uphold international standards and principles of academic publishing. Chief Editors/Sorumlu Yazı İşleri Müdürleri International Advisory Board/Uluslararası Danışma Kurulu Ali L. Karaosmanoğlu, Center for Foreign Policy & Peace Research (CFPPR) Meliha Altunışık, Middle East Technical University Ersel Aydınlı, Bilkent University Mohammed Ayoob, Michigan State University Hüseyin Bağcı, Middle East Technical University Managing Editor/ Yönetici Editör Nimet Beriker, Sabancı University Gonca Biltekin, CFPPR Esra Çuhadar, Bilkent University Managing Assistant Editor/Editör Yardımcısı Michael W. Doyle, Columbia University Onur Erpul, CFPPR Daniel Druckman, George Mason University Cooper Drury, University of Missouri-Columbia Editors/ Editörler Willem Frederik van Eekelen, Former Min. of Defense of the Andrey Makarychev, University of Tartu Netherlands & Former Secretary Gen. of the WEU Homeira Moshirzadeh, Tehran University Atila Eralp, Middle East Technical University Erik Ringmar, İbn Haldun University Onur Gökçe, Bilkent University Deepshikha Shahi, University of Delhi Serdar Ş. Güner, Bilkent University Chih-yu Shih, National Taiwan University Metin Heper, Bilkent University Helen Turton, The University of Sheffield Patrick James, University of Southern California Knud Erik Jorgensen, Yaşar University Language Editor/Dil Editörü Pınar İpek, Bilkent University Julie Mathews Emilian Kavalski, Australian Catholic University Publisher/Yayıncı Fuat Keyman, Sabancı University Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research Müge Kınacıoğlu, Hacettepe University İhsan Doğramacı Peace Foundation/ Ludger Kühnhardt, Bonn University Dış Politika ve Barış Araştırmaları Merkezi, Heath W. Lowry, Princeton University İhsan Doğramacı Barış Vakfı Nicholas Onuf, Florida International University Ankara, Turkey Ersin Onulduran, Ankara University Ziya Öniş, Koç University ISSN 2146-7757 Nihat Ali Özcan, TOBB ETU University All Rights Reserved Özgür Özdamar, Bilkent University Haluk Özdemir, Kırıkkale University Printing House/Basımcı T.V. Paul, McGill University Elma Teknik Basım Matbaacılık Kosuke Shimizu, Ryukoku University İvedik OSB Matbaacılar Sitesi İlter Turan, İstanbul Bilgi University 1516/1 Sk. No: 35 Yenimahalle / ANKARA Ali Resul Usul, İstanbul Medipol University Tel: (90-312) 229 92 65 Peter Volten, Center for European Security Studies Printing Date/Basım Tarihi Nuri Yurdusev, Middle East Technical University 24 .12.2019 Enders Wimbush, StrateVarious LLC, Washington, Virginia This journal is indexed and abstracted by: Editorial Office/Yayın İdare Adresi: Manuscript Submission: CIAO, EBSCO, Emerging Sources Citation Index, Bilkent Üniversitesi G Binası no: 157, 06800, Bilkent, Ankara/Turkey Manuscripts submitted for consideration must follow the style on the journal’s web page (http://ww- European Sources Online, Gale, JournalSeek, Left Tel: (90-312) 290 2985 w.allazimuth.com/authors- guideline/). The manuscripts should not be submitted simultaneously to Index, Middle Eastern and Central Asian Studies, Fax: (90-312) 290 3078 any other publication, nor may they have been previously published elsewhere in English. However, One Belt One Road, Political Science Complete, E-mail: [email protected] • Web: www.allazimuth.com articles that are published previously in another language but updated or improved can be submitted. ProQuest, Scopus, ULAKBİM, Ulrich’s, Worldwide Political Science Abstracts This journal is owned by Ersel Aydınlı, on behalf of the Ihsan For such articles, the author(s) will be responsible in seeking the required permission for copyright. Dogramaci Peace Foundation./İhsan Doğramacı Barış Vakfı adına All manuscripts are subject to review by anonymous referees. Manuscripts should be submitted Ersel Aydınlı yayın sahibidir. through the submission form at: http://www.allazimuth.com/authors-guideline/ TABLE OF CONTENTS Vol. 9 No. 1 January 2020 In This Issue 3 ARTICLES State Human Rights Performance and Recommendations under the Universal Periodic Review 5 Eric Cox A Dynamic Model of the Spread of Intrastate War 23 Ali Fisunoğlu Ideas and Interests: European Democracy Aid and the Democracy-Security Dilemma, 1990-2010 61 James M. Scott and Brandy Jolliff Scott Deconstructing the Sykes-Picot Myth: Frontiers, Boundaries, Borders and the Evolution of Ottoman Territoriality 83 Ali Murat Kurşun Ideologies and the Western Question in Turkish Foreign Policy: A Neo-classical Realist Perspective 105 Şevket Ovalı and İlkim Özdikmenli Turkish Foreign Policy in a Changing World Order 127 H. Tarık Oğuzlu Abstracts in Turkish 141 V9, N1, January 2020 In This Issue All Azimuth covers a broad range of topics in this issue, ranging from the role and efficacy of the UN to eclectic topics in Turkish foreign policy. The first contribution, by Eric Cox, concerns the role of the UN Human Rights Council’s Universal Periodic Review (UPR). The human rights functions of the UN System are often subject to controversy as critics have questioned the efficacy of basing the human rights review process on the recommendations of peer-states. Since the UPR is conducted by UN member states, it is expected that political favors can be exchanged, resulting in generous reviews for member states under scrutiny. To evaluate this claim, the article tests two hypotheses: a state’s human rights record will not impact the numbers of human rights recommendations it receives as part of the UPR; and a state’s human right record will not affect the percentage of action-oriented recommendations it will receive. Using data from the CIRI Human Rights Dataset to evaluate the human rights performance of states and weighing them against the UPR’s processes in 2014, the article finds that poor human rights performances do indeed correlate with more recommendations to states, thus rejecting hypothesis one. As regards to hypothesis two, the study finds no significant relationship between its human rights performance and the strength of the recommendations it receives. In short, states have great leeway due to the horizontal peer- review process but the UPR is surprisingly relevant and useful for scrutinizing states and recommending relevant corrective measures concerning human rights issues. The second article, by Ali Fisunoğlu, adopts the SIR (Susceptible – Infectious- Recovered) model from epidemiology, arguing that the way political conflicts tend to diffuse from one country to its neighbors by way of refugee flows exemplifies the behavior of infectious diseases. Specifically, the “infected” country becomes rife with political instability and internally displaced people, who may then move into neighboring countries. What makes this article remarkable is its innovative use of a computer simulation to gauge the dynamic interaction and interdependence of several variables, the most important ones being the intensity of conflict (dependent variable) and a state’s relative political capacity (RPC). RPC, defined as a state’s administrative competence as measured by its ability to extract resources from its population, is of paramount importance as it acts like the immune system of a country. The research concludes, therefore, that neighboring states with high-levels of RPC are less susceptible to the deleterious effects of civil war in their neighbors. In the third article, James Scott and Brandy Scott examine the EU’s foreign policy in the 1990-2010 period vis-à-vis its allocation of aid for democracy promotion abroad. Democracy promotion is a unique type of aid wholly distinct from other forms as it does seem to have a positive democratizing effect, but the process of how states allocate such scarce a resource like aid remains undertheorized. This article posits a “democracy-security dilemma” in which states face the choice of promoting an ideational agenda that helps to promote democracy or one that seeks to promote practical political, security, and economic goals. Using a series of random effects, generalized least squares, and Heckman selection models the article tests six hypotheses to investigate the conditions in which EU states are more likely to grant democracy promotion aid. The results show that EU countries often prioritize security and stability goals over democracy promotion ones as evidenced by their comparative reluctance to grant democracy aid to states that are highly authoritarian, politically unstable, or 3 All