The New Electoral Law: Towards What Lebanon

The New Electoral Law: Towards What Lebanon 2018 The New Electoral Law The New Electoral Law: Towards What Lebanon Maison du Futur and Konrad Adenauer Stiftung Sofitel Beirut Le Gabriel Hotel, Ashrafieh, Beirut Monday, December 11th, 2017 Lebanese elites remain divided over the implementation of the new electoral law based on proportional representation across 15 electoral constituencies made up of 26 sub-districts/cazas, as they vie for reforms that would eventually boost their community’s representation and influence. The new bill maintains the post-civil war 50-50 allocation between Muslims and Christians (128 MPs) but stipulates that members of parliament must be elected by proportional representation in reorganized districts (versus the current approach). At stake was not only the problem of how to share power among Lebanon’s religious communities and balancing their representation, but also how to facilitate the emergence of nonsec- tarian political parties and allow for independent candidates outside the traditional political class to gain a foothold, a core demand for Lebanon’s increasingly active civil society. The new bill does not address some of the previously proposed reforms, such as allocating a quota for women, allowing army sol- diers to vote, reducing the voting age from 21 to 18, tightening the lax campaign-financing regulations, and establishing an independent commission to supervise the elections. In addition, a flagrant discordance has emerged involving the preferential vote (restricted to candidates of the district/caza), the allocation of seats, and how the election threshold will be calculated to determine the winners along with the introduction of the magnetic cards. 3 The New Electoral Law The complexity of the new voted electoral law has only led to a broad state of ambiguity; how will the elector be able to vote in the context of a controversial and unclear law? Is democracy the mere act of voting, or should the latest be a rational act, accompa- nied by a sense of knowledge and responsibility? Was the new bill really fashioned having in mind the abolition of sectarianism and clearing the way for independent candidates outside the traditional political class to gain a foothold? What will the consequences be if the new Parliament represents only formally the Lebanese citizens? Is involved in the next legislative election, and what is its purpose? How can good representation and integrity in the results be guar- anteed? How can the election’s transparency be assured not only in how votes are cast and if there is vote-buying or vote-rigging, but also how campaigns are managed and financed. While the new electoral law has been widely welcomed and described as “the best possible”, critics stressed that the voting system “reinforces current political powers” and does not allow for any fundamental changes. They noted several shortcomings, including what they described as a “distortion of proportionality” and turn- ing it into a majority system that weakens the dynamics of change. In fact, the adoption of the small and medium constituencies and the mechanism in counting the votes, with the possibility of form- ing incomplete lists, are elements that would all lead to the loss of the true meaning of proportionality. How is it possible to talk of proportional representation when in 2009: more than 90% of the Shiaa and Alaouite voted for March 8 lists. And more than 80% of Sunna and Druze voted for March 14 lists. And more than 75% of Arminian electors voted for March 8 lists. As for the Christians, the parliamentary blocs do not reflect the electors’ mood as shown in several regions. As part of its focus on enhancing democratic practice through transparency, accountability and good governance, la Maison du Futur in cooperation with Konrad Adenauer Foundation (KAS) are organizing a one-day roundtable discussion among speakers 4 The New Electoral Law involved in the elaboration of the new electoral law either by con- tradicting or by supporting it, aiming to address the context of the new electoral law, its interpretation, implementation, and the election threshold. The workshop will feature interventions by MP Ghassan Mouk- heiber, former minister Ziad Baroud, Mr. Khaled Chehab and Ms. Lara Saade and will be moderated by Dr. Nawaf Kabbarah. The estimated time is 12 to 15 minutes for each intervention, followed by a coffee break, a 60 to 90 minutes discussion with the audience, and a discussion lunch. 5 The New Electoral Law Program 10:00 – 09:30 Registration 10:15 – 10:00 Opening Mr. Sam Menassa, Maison du futur Mrs. Hana Nasser, Konrad Adenauer Stiftung 11:15 – 10:15 Interventions MP Ghassan Moukheiber Former Minister Ziad Baroud Mr. Khaled Chehab Ms. Lara Saadé Moderator Dr. Nawaf Kabbara 11:30 – 11:15 Coffee Break 13:00 – 11:30 Discussion 13:00 Discussion lunch 7 The New Electoral Law Report Amidst the conflicts engulfing the region, the geographical changes that they are entailing, the intertwining alliances that are taking place between regional forces and international powers, the growing Sunni-Shia divide, the intensified political strain between the Iranian and the Saudi axes, the antagonism that is festering in Gulf countries, the burgeoning extremist outlaw military militias, and the repercussions that this situation might be leading to on the Lebanese scene, the upcoming general elections slated for spring 2018 under a new electoral law, are more important than ever. In addition to the ambiguity of its mechanism, the new electoral law has been described as the best possible formula, yet many questions are being raised as per the reforms it has introduced, and if it will produce new political elite. A growing concern reigns over whether this law has been tailored to generate a legislative power that will work on legitimizing a reality that no longer reflects the Lebanese realm, especially since this new complex bill was ham- mered out by Hezbollah which stands to gain the most from it. Some even went as far as to say that we cannot foresee the political purpose of this law unless we adopt a big-picture-thinking and try to understand it as the end product of the 2016 settlement that led to the election of the President of the Republic and the forma- tion of a Government. Furthermore, any analysis of the upcoming elections that does not take into account the 2009 elections will fell short of its real political goal; the impending elections will mainly be a reaction to the previous elections’ outcome, even though the anti-Hezbollah parliamentary majority at that time did not play a full-fledged role due to the political reality and the security threats Lebanon was facing, namely after the 7th of May 2008 events. This time, Hezbollah will not accept to be defeated in the elections, as it was the case in 2009, even if it has the capacity to para- 9 The New Electoral Law President Amine Gemayel, Ziad Baroud, Sami Nader 10 The New Electoral Law lyze any parliamentary victory against it. Hezbollah will not accept that the upcoming electoral process doesn’t reflect its local political achievements as well as its regional military victories that also serve the interests of Tehran, its main ally. Is it therefore true that the new electoral law was tailor made for Hezbollah and its allies, to consecrate the hegemony of the party on all electoral and political milestones? Is it true that the new law distorted the proportional system and transformed it into a majority system through two measures- a preferential vote for one can- didate instead of two, to be casted on the level of the caza instead of the constituency, in addition to authorizing incomplete lists pro- vided that the number of candidates represents 40% of the seats al- located to the relevant constituency? Can the proportional system be in harmony with the sectarian quota? Did political players use attractive reform slogans to cover their quest for preserving their personal interests? Does the new electoral law reflect the ambitions and the reform path that the Lebanese citizens were aspiring for? Toward what Lebanon will the results of these elections lead us? In an attempt to tackle these questions, Maison du Futur, in cooperation with Konrad Adenauer Stiftung, held a roundtable discussion in Le Gabriel Hotel on Monday, 11th of December, under the title; “The New Electoral Law: Towards What Lebanon”, with the participation of the former Deputy Speaker of the Parliament Elie al-Ferzli, MPs Ghassan Moukheiber , Ahmad Fatfat, former ministers Ziad Baroud and Dimianos Kattar, in addition to Lara Saadé, Khaled Chehab, and other experts, with Doctor Nawaf Kab- bara as the session moderator. President Amine Gemayel inaugurated the meeting by welcom- ing the guests and stressing on the bitterness of the current period on the regional and international levels, “The situation calls upon us as an elite to think about the political, social and economic future as well as the future of the Parliament, the mother of all insti- tutions.” Gemayel said that; “The invitation to this debate reflects MDF willingness to shed light on the new electoral law from the 11 The New Electoral Law .President Amine Gemayel perspective of its possible outcomes that will shape the future political life in Lebanon and the regional and international alliances the country will therefore conclude.” Gemayel hoped that the speakers will be able to clarify the ambiguity of the voting mechanism and the announcement of the elections’ results, as well as explain the scope of the possible electoral alliances in addition to the impact of the elections’ results on the political game on the one hand, and on the Lebanese entity on the other hand.

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