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Horizons 2017 THE SYKES PICOT AGREEMENT LIMITS OF AMBITIONS Le Sérail - Bikfaya This book was published wiTh The supporT of FIRST NATIONAL BANK S.A.L. Designed by Saad Kiwan PrinTed in BeiruT (LEBANON) by: ISBN: 978-9953-0-4399-9 Chemaly & Chemaly © Maison du FuTur, 2017 13 Foreword, 153 The Two-State President Amine Gemayel Solution and Beyond Perceptions for the Future 15 Religious Values of the Palestinian cause in Politics and possible settlements The Past, Present and Future of Christian Democratic Parties 209 Homage to 15 Bernhard Vogel Walid Akl 25 Radwan el-Sayed 213 Tolerance: A Vision 31 Crossing Towards and Doctrine Embraced the Rule of Law by Imam el-Sader 213 Rabab el-Sadr 53 Oil and Gas 216 Ahmad el-Ghez 57 Media Efficiency 219 External Actors in under Regional and Syria II International Variables Assessing the Influence and Interests of Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Qatar 69 The Limits of and Israel Ambitions External Interventions 241 New Electoral Law: and the States System in the Arab Middle East Towards what Lebanon Challenges, Alignments, Expectations 261 Exhibition of Suzani Textiles 121 Lebanon and the Syrian Refugees Human Dignity, Counter-Extremism and Safe Return at Stake CONTENTS 11 FOREWORD 2017 was an extraordinary year with the various developments it has wit- nessed in the course of the earth-shattering conflicts that have engulfed the Mina region in the wake of the so-called Arab Spring starting early 2011. Such developments include the collapse of ISIS in Iraq and Syria, the Saudi Iranian polarization and its drastic fallout on the region, the gains achieved by the pro-Syrian regime alliance at the expense of the political and military opposition, which endangers ongoing efforts to reach a long-term polit- ical settlement for the Syrian crisis. The title of Horizons 2017, “The Limits of Ambitions”, was the main theme of the Maison du Futur (MDF) international annual conference, held on the 17th and 18th of May 2017. The conference broughT To lighT The naTure of modern foreign inTervenTions in The Middle EasT, where some STaTes are playing an inflaTed role, while oThers, TradiTionally classified as superpowers, are wiTnessing a decline in Their role due To deficiencies in The inTernaTional and in The regional orders. The conference also explored The fuTure of The STaTes sysTem in The Arab world in an aTTempT To figure ouT wheTher The currenT crises are an indicaTor of iTs demise, or raTher signal The beginnings of a new Arab order. In the same vein, MDF held in collaboration with Al-Quds Center for Political Studies, Wilfried Martens Centre and Konrad Adenauer Stiftung, a conference on the Arab-Israeli conflict entitled “The Two-State Solution and Beyond.” With the Syrian war triggering the largest refugee exoduses in recent his- tory, Lebanon’s concern over the influx of the Syrian refugees into its territory overwhelmed its long-standing anxiety over the Palestinian refugees’ presence! This is why MDF and Club de Madrid have organized a seminar entitled “Lebanon and the Syrian Refugees: Human Dignity, Counter-Extremism, and Safe Return at Stake”, with the purpose of finding an economic, social, and environmental approach to limit the negative impact on host communities. At the Lebanese level, Horizons 2017 features two conferences’ events held in collaboration with the Lebanese University. The first was entitled “Cross- ing towards the Rule of Law,” and the second discussed “The Effectiveness of the Media in the Light of Regional and International Changes.” 12 On another note, MDF has organized a Chatham House Rule round table on oil and gas in collaboration with Energy Intelligence, to shed light on Lebanon’s oil potential and the economic impact of oil and gas exploration in Lebanon. In 2017, MDF has embarked on a strategy to reposition arts, culture and heritage as key players for social cohesion and as contributors to the economy. A lecture was delivered by Bernhard Vogel, Former Minister President of Rhineland and of Thuringia and the Honorary Chairman of Konrad Ade- nauer Stiftung, entitled “Religious Values in Politics: The Past, Present, and Future of Christian Democratic Parties.” Furthermore, MDF launched two art activities in collaboration with the Municipality of Bikfaya-Mhaidsseh: The Suzani Textiles Exhibition for Tradi- tional Uzbekistani textiles featuring the private collection of Mrs. Lina Kalo, and a homage to the late Lebanese pianist Walid Akl, in collaboration with the Baalbek International Festival, during which PaTrick Fayad, Lebanese pi- anisT esTablished in France, paid TribuTe To The greaT arTisT. All throughout 2017, MDF tried to actively work to shape a freer, equal and more stable society. It will continue with this endeavor in 2018, remain- ing a free thought oasis throughout this turbulent momentous of humanity his- tory, to foresee what is in store for the region and the world in the near future toward which we are rushing in a stream of countless crises; with the aim of contributing to further high-level discussions on these crisis, MDF targets to be a platform facilitating an exchange of good practices and lessons learned, in order to provide rational and realistic frameworks for settling these crisis. Consequently, MDF will be holding its international annual conference on the 25th and 26th of May 2018, under the theme of “Security Amidst Disso- lution: The Challenges of Assuring the Continuity of Security Arrangements in the Middle East, amidst the Reality of Dissolution of the Regional Order.” Horizons 2018 will be carrying this title. La Maison du Futur would like to acknowledge all its partners, especially Konrad Adenauer Stiftung, Al-Quds Center for Political Studies, Wilfried Martens Center, Club de Madrid and the Lebanese University, along with the speakers and lecturers who have taken the floor in all its events. Its appre- ciation extends to all those who have participated in its activities, enriching them with their presence, knowledge and fruitful debates. On this occasion, La Maison du Futur reiterates its willingness to collabo- rate with any party believing in the obligation of achieving its motto-objectives: Good governance, development at all levels, and freedom and justice for the region’s societies and communities. Amine Gemayel 13 14 RELIGIOUS VALUES in POLITICS THE PAST, PRESENT AND FUTURE OF CHRISTIAN DEMOCRATIC PARTIES SOFITEL LE GABRIEL HOTEL ESPACE GABRIEL HALL, ACHRAFIEH, BEIRUT [FEBRUARY 7th, 2017] OVERVIEW To win the war against terrorism and radical- ism, the world’s community will need to pursue with equal vigor the short-term imperative to erad- icate terrorist groups and their international sup- port networks, and the longer-term objective to bring forward a positive vision for the peoples of the Middle East that provides an alter- native to terrorists’ destruc- tive ideology. This specifically means that there is an urgent need to engage local leaders and shareholders in the highly sensitive issues of po- litical reform, rule of law, and spread of democratic val- ues, while at the same time enforcing and preserving reli- gious freedom. Bernhard Vogel. The Middle East has perhaps one the longest recorded history of multi-regional, multi-religious and multi-ethnic people living together in one area, 15 HORIZONS 2017 and for the majority of the recorded history all of these different groups have co-existed with each other. However, the region has witnessed during the recent decades the rise of religious conflicts and the involvement of religion in politics has become more pronounced; very serious issues of religious restric- tions, discrimination have been documented and persecution on the basis of thoughts, beliefs and re- ligions hasbecome virulent. Holding the development and preservation of civic, religious and political freedoms at the heart of its work, and understanding that religious free- dom is a decisive element to pluralistic, democratic and tolerant societies, La Maison du Futur (MdF) has launched the Tolerance Project which inspires conscience, pluralism, religious free- dom, and celebration of diversity. This project also aims to emphasize the capacity of each and every individual to counter hate and impart the benefits of living in tolerant open societies, cultivating the basis for vibrant, free, just, and peaceful societies in the broader Middle East. In this context, MdF intends to organize several activities to discuss the core values of tolerance em- bedded in the primary fact that humanity is di- verse, and that everyone has a moral obligation to prevent hatred, discrimination and persecution. As an inaugural event, MdF will host Professor Bernhard Vogel, former Prime Minister and Hon- orary Chairman of the Konrad Adenauer Stiftung to present a lecture entitled; “Religious Values in Politics- The Past, Present and Future of Christian-Demo- cratic Parties”. y 16 RELIGIOUS VALUES IN POLITICS ECTURE by The former Prime MinisTer of The State of L Rhineland-Palatinate and Thüringen and Honorary President of The Konrad Adenauer Foundation, Professor Bernhard Vogel; 1. I am very happy To Talk To you TonighT. IT is my pleasure and Dr. Gerhard Wahlers To be TogeTher TonighT. 2. I apologize in advance for Two Things-FirsT, I will noT ad- dress you in French or English buT in my naTive German lan- guage. Second, I have noT visiTed Lebanon before; iT is my firsT Time, buT The Konrad Adenauer FoundaTion has been operaT- ing here for several years. I am very happy To be wiTh you here Today, and I Thank you for This opporTuniTy! Lebanon, Germany, The Middle EasT, a uniTed Europe, and The whole world, all of Them sTand Today in The face of chal- lenges ThaT undermine old fundamenTals. The ever-increasing pace of Technological progress always Page 16: opens up new horizons, buT aT The same Time, iT also leads us Ibrahim To Touch on eThical issues.
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