٢٠١٦ THE SYKES PICOT AGREEMENT Tô٦W’C G¢٢٠١ É°TQ Al Zabadani, al Fou’aa and π`q«ª÷G ÚeGC 1916-2016 اتفاقيـة HÉæ÷G Kefraya Agreement: Changes of« ّ ÉfóY Amr EL AZM the Ethnic Aspect in the Middle East¿ سايكس بيكو »Lƒ∏eódG ¿ƒ°ù«e øjõdG Léa BAROUDI Lebanon, the Refugees and the OÉ¡L ARR James B Displaced: Economic, Social and ó«©°ùdG CARRION… ١٩١٦ ـ ٢٠١٦ »MƒL óFGQ Doris Security Challenges. The Need for ≠FÉ°üdG DAGHER OÉjR Carole a Comprehensive National Strategy اتفاق الزبداني، الفوعا وكفريا: تغييرات í∏°üdG øªMôdG óÑY Burhanettin DURAN في الوجه اﻹثني للشرق اﻻوسط •Éq«N ôeÉY,ô°q û©ŸG ¿Ghôe Amine GEMAYEL Tribute to Raymond Jebara Fady GEMAYEL لبنان والﻼجئون والنازحون: التح ّديات ⁄É°S ∫ƒH ,ìÉHQ Ωôµe,ÖjO ¬«LhQ The Gifted Artist of Satire óª°üdG óÑY ójƒ°S Mireille GIRARD اﻻقتصادّيـة واﻻجتماعيّـة واﻷمنيّـة q ¿É°ùZ , Oƒªfi EYDEMANN The US Presidential Election: Y ìqÉàØdG óÑY Steven H≥»≥« حفل تكريم ريمون جبارة Òæe , π«Ñf HITTI Implications for the Middle East ¿ƒY hôªY Nassif eÉ°S , π«Ñf Nancy Nabil KANBAR Transparency and Accountability« اﻻنتخابات الرئاسيّـة اﻷميركيّـة التداعيات ÊÉqÑb ódÉN Joseph MAILA على الشرق اﻻوسط á檫æe AL RAHIM External Actors in Syria ø°ùM Rend الشفافيـة والمساءلة ô°UÉf Peter RIMMELE Assessing the Influence and Interests ّ AÉæg of Russia, Iran and Hezbollah É¡Ñf »eÉ°S Dorothée SHMIDT¿ الﻼعبون الخارجيّـون في سوريا Andrew TABLER Preventing Youth Radicalization وقاية الشباب من التطرف Miriam YOUNES ّ Yuri ZININ The Sykes-Picot Agreement مئة عام على اتفاقيـة سايكس بيكو :a Century Later ّ A New Order for the Middle East MAISON DU FUTUR MAISON DU FUTUR Horizons 2016 THE SYKES PICOT AGREEMENT 1916-2016 Le Sérail - Bikfaya This book was published thanks to the generous support of Cet ouvrage a été publié grâce au soutien généreux de FRANSABANK ISBN: 978-9953-0-4053-0 © Maison du Futur, 2017 10 Foreword, 95 Transparency President Amine Gemayel and Accountability 13 Al Zabadani, 119 External Actors al Fou’aa and Kefraya in Syria Agreement: Assessing the Influence Changes of the Ethnic and Interests Aspect in the Middle East of Russia, Iran and Hezbollah 29 Lebanon, 133 Preventing Youth the Refugees Radicalization and the Displaced: 149 Léa Baroudi Economic, Social and Security Challenges 157 The Sykes-Picot The Need for a Agreement Comprehensive a Century Later: National Strategy A New Order for 59 Fady Gemayel the Middle East 62 Miriam Younes 198 Peter Rimmele 68 Nancy Nabil Kanbar 201 Carole Dagher 72 Mireille Girard 210 Dorothée Shmidt 213 Doris Carrion 75 Tribute to 217 Joseph Maila Raymond Jebara 222 Steven Heydemann the Gifted Artist of Satire 227 Yuri Zinin 229 James Barr 79 The US Presidential 233 Andrew Tabler Election: Implications for 237 Amr el Azm the Middle East 240 Rend Al Rahim 246 Nassif Hitti 252 Burhanettin Duran CONTENTS 9 FOREWORD ORIZONS 2016” is the second “H annual book published by Mai- son du Futur after launching its activities following years of absence in 2015. This book almost acts like a mirror reflecting the major events organized by the institu- tion during the past year. The major milestone was the celebra- tion of the centennial of the Sykes Picot agreement signed in 1916. In 2016, this celebration occurred at a time when the borders drawn by this agreement were vi- olated and the entities established a hun- dred years ago within these borders were threatened by wars and conflicts. These clashes affected all the countries of the re- gion, whether directly or indirectly, and nearly had serious repercussions on Eu- rope and the United States. This centennial celebration was allo- cated an important chapter in “Horizons 2016” as the Maison du Futur yearly con- ference was a unique occasion to explain the historical conditions accompanying the conclusion of this agreement, to dis- cuss whether the current conflicts wide- spread in the region were in fact the result of this agreement, and to foresaw the pos- sible prospects of these wars. Amongst these conflicts shaking our Lebanese borders, the Syrian war to which Maison du Futur dedicated several events in order to analyze different as- pects of the topic: from the Al Fou’aa – Al 10 Zabadani agreement (demographic swap); to the external players in the Syrian conflict and the evaluation of the roles and interests of Russia, Iran and the Hezbollah in this context. “Horizons 2016” also highlights one of the major issues that Lebanon is currently facing as a result of the war on the other side of its eastern and northern borders, that is the refugees crisis; in addi- tion to the terrorism and extremism and the possible means that shall be exploited in order to preserve the youth from the scourges of these threats. The US presidential elections and their repercussions on the Mid- dle East were also at the heart of Maison du Futur activities for 2016, and were also the topic of a policy paper issued by the institu- tion and highlighting the thorny problems in Lebanon and the re- gion. The publication of this policy paper was followed by a discussion panel analyzing the impact of the US presidential elec- tions on the region in general and more specifically on Lebanon. La Maison du Futur also tackled internal topics having positive or negative impacts on our country, so it dedicated a panel discussion to transparency and accountability, and organized a cultural event pay- ing tribute to late Lebanese playwright Raymond Gebara, a year after his death. “Horizons 2015” and “Horizons 2016” have already been pub- lished, and “Horizons 2017” will follow, under the title “The Limits of Ambitions – External Interventions and the State System in the Arab Middle East: Challenges, Alignments, Expectations”. The upcoming book will also highlight the events to be organized during 2017, including a conference on “Oil and Gas”, on the “Rule of Law” and the “Two-State Solution”, that will all form one chain of events reflecting the underlying objectives of Maison du Futur: good governance, modern and efficient education, and a comprehensive economic and social development. With the hope of writing to you again in “Horizons 2017” Amine Gemayel 11 AL ZABADANI AL FOU’AA and KEFRAYA AGREEMENT: CHANGES ETHNIC ASPECT of the of MIDDLE EAST in the in MAISON DU FUTUR, BIKFAYA [MARCH 4th, 2016] OVERVIEW What is the significance of Al Zabadani – Al Fou’aa and Kefraya agreement? Is it the beginning of a new ethnic distribution in the Middle East? Problems surrounding Al Zabadani – Al Fou’aa and Kefraya agreement are not limited to Lebanon’s role in its implementation, but are also related to the identities of the signatory parties. The agreement was not concluded between a Syr- ian governmental entity and another entity rep- resenting the armed opposition movements, but rather between the government of the Islamic Re- public of Iran and the “Ahrar Al Sham” move- ment supported by Turkey and operating under the umbrella of the Islamic Front allied to “Al Nusra Front” in the context of the” Fath army”, under the supervision and with the participation of the United Nations. This agreement leads to a sectarian division within Syrian regions through the evacuation of Sunni citizens from Al Left: Spring in al Zabadani. 13 HORIZONS 2016 Zabadani, and Shiite citizens from Al Fou’aa and Kefraya. It seems that the new actor on the Syrian scene, i.e Russia, does not consider itself bound to this agreement, since the Russian air force bombarded sites in “Reef Idleb”, a region that should have been subject to the truce stipulated in the agreement. This is how a region was evacuated of Sunnis for the sake of Shiites and vice-versa. We have previously witnessed this phe- nomenon in some Arab regions and countries, so where is the situation heading in the region? Regarding Lebanon, this agreement highlights the fact that Lebanon is not an active player but rather a submissive party. The expulsion of citizens and families from Al Zabadani, Al Fou’aa and Kefraya took place through Lebanon, which is con- sidered a clear violation of the country’s sovereignty. “La Maison du Futur” will hold a round table to discuss the nature of this agreement and its repercussions on all levels, especially since it was concluded under the supervision and with the support of the United Nations. The objective of this discus- sion is to evaluate the impacts of such an agreement and to de- termine whether it is a replicable model. Was it implemented in order to ease the tensions and participate to the Syrian con- flict resolution, or was it an unprecedented measure that might be a first step towards a demographic redistribution that paves the way for a regional path and a new approach in the region? In this case what will be the repercussions over Lebanon? y 14 AFTER THE STORM AISON DU FUTUR (MdF) in coordination with Kon- M rad Adenauer Stiftung (KAS) held a seminar to discuss the consequences of the Zabadani, Fou’aa and Kefraya agree- ment and the different issues revolving around it. Elements of the agreement, such as its international sponsorship and par- ties’ signatories, thereto namely Iran on one hand and the Ahrar Al Sham Movement sharing close ties with Turkey on the other, were discussed. Among other topics of discussion was the sectarian sorting brought along by the agreement through the displacement of Sunni citizens from Zabadani and Shia citizens from Fou’aa and Kefraya throughout the Lebanese territory unbeknownst to the Lebanese government. The discussion aimed at attempting to assess whether the pur- pose of the agreement was limited to humanitarian concerns, or if it were to become a model that will repeat itself on a sys- tematic track towards demographic redistribution in the region on sectarian and ethnic grounds.