Dissertação Apresentada À Escola Brasileira De Administração Pública E De Empresas Para Obtenção Do Título De Mestre

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Dissertação Apresentada À Escola Brasileira De Administração Pública E De Empresas Para Obtenção Do Título De Mestre FUNDAÇÃO GETULIO VARGAS ESCOLA BRASILEIRA DE ADMINISTRAÇÃO PÚBLICA E DE EMPRESAS MESTRADO EM ADMINISTRAÇÃO FROM OPENNESS TO RESTRICTION: SOUTH AMERICAN GOVERNMENTS’ RESPONSES TO THE VENEZUELAN EXODUS, 2014-2019 Dissertação apresentada à Escola Brasileira de Administração Pública e de Empresas para obtenção do título de Mestre Ugo Medrado Corrêa Rio de Janeiro - 2019 2 FUNDAÇÃO GETULIO VARGAS ESCOLA BRASILEIRA DE ADMINISTRAÇÃO PÚBLICA E DE EMPRESAS Ugo Medrado Corrêa From openness to restriction: South American governments’ responses to the Venezuelan exodus, 2014-2019 Dissertação para obtenção do grau de mestre apresentada à Escola Brasileira de Administração Pública e de Empresas. Área de concentração: Instituições, Políticas e Governo Orientador: Prof. Dr. Octavio Amorim Neto Rio de Janeiro 2019 Dados Internacionais de Catalogação na Publicação (CIP) Ficha catalográfica elaborada pelo Sistema de Bibliotecas/FGV Corrêa, Ugo Medrado From openness to restriction : South American governments’ responses to the Venezuelan exodus, 2014-2019 / Ugo Medrado Corrêa. – 2019. 113 f. Dissertação (mestrado) - Escola Brasileira de Administração Pública e de Empresas, Centro de Formação Acadêmica e Pesquisa. Orientador: Octavio Amorim Neto. Inclui bibliografia. 1. Venezuela - Migração. 2. Imigrantes – América do Sul. 3. Migração – Política governamental. 3. Venezuelanos – América do Sul. 4. Venezuela – Política e governo.I. Amorim Neto, Octavio, 1964-.II. Escola Brasileira de Administração Pública e de Empresas. Centro de Formação Acadêmica e Pesquisa. III. Título. CDD – 325.87 Elaborada por Márcia Nunes Bacha – CRB-7/4403 Acknowledgements I thank my advisor Professor Octavio Amorim Neto for his unwearying support throughout the work on this MSc thesis. His guidance and persistent help brought this thesis to a higher level of academic contribution and methodological rigor. I am grateful for having not only a professional mentor but also an honest friend. I would like to express my sincere appreciation to my committee members, Professor Gregory Michener and Professor Feliciano Guimarães, whose encouraging comments have made substantial contributions to this thesis and future research. I am grateful for the continuous academic and financial support that the Escola Brasileira de Administração Pública e Empresas (EBAPE) and Fundação Getúlio Vargas (FGV) provided to me as a graduate student. I thank also every faculty and staff member in EBAPE for helping to develop my academic skills. I was also granted financial support from Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq) and Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES). I thank these federal agencies for supporting social sciences in Brazil. To the immigrants and refugees that came to Rio de Janeiro to start a new life. Their strength and resilience are a source of inspiration to me. Agradeço à minha família, aos meu pais, Almir e Regina. A quem todos os dias agradeço pelo amor e carinho que me formaram como pessoa. Sou eternamente grato ao apoio incondicional que me deram à minha educação e ao meu interesse pela ciência política. Aos meus amigos, com quem compartilhei alegrias e angústias ao longo da pesquisa. Tenho muita sorte de tê-los em minha vida. À Luz Marina Gutiérrez, por ter me ajudado a buscar sempre a melhor versão de mim. 3 Abstract The Venezuelan exodus represents one of the most extensive political and humanitarian crises ever experienced in South America. Yet, governments in the region have failed to promote stability in Venezuela and have been unable to implement a coordinated response to the migration crisis across the subcontinent. By focusing on foreign and domestic action, I aim to better understand, beyond diplomatic discourse, what South American governments have done to deal with the spillovers of the Venezuelan collapse, and which factors have influenced their decision-making process. The present study offers a concept that identifies key attributes that constitute a facilitated immigration policy to Venezuelans. It is a pivotal step to provide tools for empirical analysis of the phenomenon. Then, I investigate which factors have influenced governments’ political response to the Venezuelan immigration crisis. Why president Evo Morales, Caracas’s close ally, did not facilitate immigration from Venezuela? Why the Brazilian president, Michel Temer, in turn, implemented an open-door policy for Venezuelan immigrants? This MSc thesis applies Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA) to the sample of nineteen South American governments from 2014 to 2019 — the epicenter of the Venezuelan exodus. Through QCA, I identify conditions shared by cases that have reached the same outcome — openness or restriction to Venezuelan immigration. Right- wing ideology has placed many South American presidents in strong opposition to the Maduro government. Thus, facilitating the arrival of Venezuelans immigrants on humanitarian grounds would instead send a powerful political message condemning the Bolivarian regime. Keywords: Migration Policy, Foreign Policy, South America, Venezuelan crisis, Qualitative Comparative Analysis. 4 Resumo O êxodo venezuelano representa uma das mais extensas crises políticas e humanitárias já vivenciadas na América do Sul. No entanto, os governos da região falharam em promover a estabilidade na Venezuela e foram incapazes de implementar uma resposta coordenada à crise migratória no subcontinente. Ao analisar o comportamento interno e externo, investigo, além do discurso diplomático, como os governos sul-americanos lidaram com a consequência do colapso venezuelano e quais fatores influenciaram seu processo de tomada de decisão. O presente estudo oferece um conceito que identifica os principais atributos que constituem uma política de imigração facilitada para os venezuelanos. É uma contribuição essencial para fornecer ferramentas para análise empírica do fenômeno. Em seguida, analisa quais fatores influenciaram a resposta política dos governos à crise imigratória venezuelana. Por que o presidente Evo Morales, aliado próximo de Caracas, não facilitou a imigração venezuelana? Por que o presidente brasileiro Michel Temer, por sua vez, implementou uma política de portas abertas para os imigrantes venezuelanos? Essa dissertação de mestrado aplica a Análise Qualitativa Comparativa (QCA) à amostra de dezenove governos sul-americanos de 2014 a 2019 – a ocorrência principal do êxodo venezuelano. Por meio do QCA, identifico condições compartilhadas entre os casos que atingiram o mesmo resultado – abertura ou não à imigração venezuelana. A ideologia de direita colocou muitos presidentes sul-americanos em forte oposição ao governo Maduro. Assim, facilitar a chegada de imigrantes venezuelanos por motivos humanitários enviaria uma poderosa mensagem política condenando o regime bolivariano. Palavras-chave: Política Migratória, Política Externa, América do Sul, Crise venezuelana, Análise Qualitativa Comparativa. 5 Contents 1. Introduction ......................................................................................................................................... 7 2. Context .......................................................................................................................................... 11 2.1 Migration in South America ................................................................................................ 11 2.2 The Venezuelan exodus and the regional response ............................................................ 13 3. Theoretical Foundations ................................................................................................................ 25 3.1 International migration ........................................................................................................ 25 3.2 Foreign policy in South America ......................................................................................... 26 4. The adoption of migration policies for Venezuelan immigrants .................................................. 28 4.1 Comparing immigration policies ......................................................................................... 28 4.2 Explaining the adoption of immigration policies for Venezuelans ................................... 34 5. Method .......................................................................................................................................... 38 5.1 Methodological choice........................................................................................................... 38 5.2 Fuzzy-Set Qualitative Comparative Analysis ..................................................................... 40 5.3 Strengths and limitations of QCA ....................................................................................... 41 6. Analysis ........................................................................................................................................ 43 6.1 Case Selection ........................................................................................................................ 43 6.2 Data ........................................................................................................................................ 45 6.3 Calibration ............................................................................................................................. 46 7. Results ..........................................................................................................................................
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