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The Legislature Strikes Back in Peru: the Role of Congress in the Demise of Fujimori in 2000

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The Legislature Strikes Back in Peru: the Role of Congress in the Demise of Fujimori in 2000 THE LEGISLATURE STRIKES BACK IN PERU: THE ROLE OF CONGRESS IN THE DEMISE OF FUJIMORI IN 2000 By JULIO JAVIER AGUAYO A DISSERTATION PRESENTED TO THE GRADUATE SCHOOL OF THE UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA 2004 Copyright 2004 by Julio Javier Aguayo TABLE OF CONTENTS page LIST OF TABLES............................................................................................................. vi ABSTRACT...................................................................................................................... vii CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................1 SECTION I: THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK 2 POLITICAL DEVELOPMENT LITERATURE .........................................................9 Introduction...................................................................................................................9 O’Donnell and Schmitter’s Reflections on Transitions..............................................11 Karl and the Importance of Pacts................................................................................21 Shapiro and the Danger of Pacted Transitions ...........................................................28 Huntington and the Importance of Institutions...........................................................38 Conclusion ..................................................................................................................45 3 THE QUEST FOR POWER IN THE CONGRESSES OF THE UNITED STATES AND PERU ................................................................................................................48 Introduction.................................................................................................................48 Institutionalization of the Legislature.........................................................................49 Dodd’s Theory of Cycles of Power in the United States and Peru.............................59 Congressional Resurgence: Representation and Legitimacy......................................76 Conclusion ................................................................................................................105 SECTION II: ANALYSIS OF THE 70 DAYS OF THE TRANSITION 4 ACTORS, ARENAS AND ALTERNATIVES FOR THE SOLUTION OF THE CRISIS SEPTEMBER 14 – OCTOBER 1 ...............................................................112 Introduction...............................................................................................................112 Actors of the Transition............................................................................................113 Arenas of the Transition ...........................................................................................122 September 14: A Video is Leaked to the Press.........................................................125 Immediate Reactions to the Video............................................................................126 iii September 16: Fujimori’s Announcement................................................................128 Extra Constitutional Solution vs. Constitutional Amendment Solution...................133 September 16- 17: The Opposition Parties Propose an Extra Constitutional Solution................................................................................................................134 September 18 – 20: P2000 Proposes to Amend the Constitution.............................139 September 21–23: The OAS’s Mesa De Dialogo Implements the Constitutional Amendments ........................................................................................................144 September 24-28: Montesinos Flees Peru and P2000 Loses the Majority in Congress...............................................................................................................148 September 28 - October 1: Restlessness in the Armed Forces .................................151 Conclusion ................................................................................................................154 5 THE OAS’s MESA DE DIALOGO OCTOBER 2 – OCTOBER 22.......................156 Introduction...............................................................................................................156 October 2 – 4: The Mesa de Dialogo at the Center of the Political Debate .............158 October 5 - 6: Legitimacy Crisis: The Legislators Do Not Want to Loose their Salaries.................................................................................................................163 October 6: Congress Passes Constitutional Amendments........................................166 October 7 - 10: Break Up of the Dialogue................................................................167 Preparing the Censure of the Speaker.......................................................................170 October 11-13: The Judiciary Recovers Its Voice....................................................173 October 13: The Censure Fails .................................................................................175 October 14 – 22: Armed Forces Pressure to Secure Amnesty and the Political Class Denounces Military Interventionism..........................................................177 Conclusion ................................................................................................................187 6 CONGRESS TAKES CENTER STAGE OCTOBER 23 - NOVEMBER 9...........190 Introduction...............................................................................................................190 The Electoral System Debate: Background..............................................................191 October 23 – 28: P2000 Comes Apart – The End is Near........................................194 The Return of Montesinos.................................................................................195 The Fracture of P2000 and Divisions With the Executive.................................201 October 29- 31: Military Uprising in the South........................................................205 November 1 - 2: Ratification of the Constitutional Amendment and Liberation of the Universities................................................................................................207 November. 3 – 8: Creation of the Mixed District System and the Provincial Protest ..................................................................................................................210 Background........................................................................................................210 The Mixed District System................................................................................212 Creation of Sub-Committee to Investigate Montesinos............................................218 Conclusion ................................................................................................................221 iv 7 RECONSTRUCTION OF THE DEMOCRATIC. INSTITUTIONS NOVEMBER 9 - NOVEMBER 21 ..........................................................................223 Introduction...............................................................................................................223 November 9 – 12: Under Heavy Pressure, P2000 Accepts to Debate the Censure of the Speaker ........................................................................................225 November 13: Censurada! P2000 Loses the Presidency of Congress......................232 November 14 – 16: Election of the New Speaker: the Opposition Takes Control of Congress .............................................................................................237 Selection of the Candidates ...............................................................................238 The Campaign for the Office of the Speaker.....................................................243 November 1 6- 19: Rebuilding Peru’s Democratic Institutions ...............................247 Fujimori Resigns in Japan .................................................................................253 November 20 – 21: Destitution of Fujimori and Appointment of Speaker Paniagua as Transitory President.........................................................................254 Conclusion ................................................................................................................259 8 CONCLUSIONS ......................................................................................................262 Role of International Actors .....................................................................................263 Separation of Powers Between the Executive and the Legislature ...........................265 Flexibilization of Presidentialism.............................................................................266 Peru’s Legislature: Strong or Weak?:.......................................................................270 The Role of Pacts and the Importance of the Opposition.........................................272 The Providential Video: Reflections About Fortuna and Virtu in the Peruvian Transition .............................................................................................................275 The Need for Stable Institutions and Their Role in Regulating Conflict...................277 APPENDIX : METHODOLOGY AND SURVEY........................................................281 LIST OF REFERENCES.................................................................................................288
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