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A Survey of Australia May 7Th 2005 Has he got the ticker? A survey of Australia May 7th 2005 Republication, copying or redistribution by any means is expressly prohibited without the prior written permission of The Economist The Economist May 7th 2005 A survey of Australia 1 Has he got the ticker? Also in this section The limits to growth Australia’s constraints are all on the supply side. They need to be tackled. Page 3 Beyond lucky The economy has a lot more going for it than mineral resources. Page 5 Innite variety A beautiful empty country full of tourist attractions. Page 6 The reluctant deputy sheri Australia’s skilful foreign policy has made it many friends. Keeping them all happy will not be easy. Page 7 God under Howard The prime minister keeps on winning elec- tions because he understands how Australia has changed. Page 9 Australia’s economic performance has been the envy of western countries for well over a decade. But, says Christopher Lockwood, the Australians old and new country now needs a new wave of reform to keep going The country seems to be at ease with its new- HE best-loved character in Australian ment, but to win re-election on, policies est arrivals, but not yet with its rst Tfolklore is the battler, the indomi- that were as brutal as they were necessary. inhabitants. Page 11 table little guy who soldiers on despite all It was under this remarkable Labor team the odds, struggling to hold down his job, that the really tough things were done: the raise his family and pay o his mortgage. near-elimination of taris, the oating of Drizabone Battling adversity, after all, is what Austra- the exchange rate, the rst moves towards But water shortages can be overcome. lians excel atand have done since 1788, enterprise-level rather than industry-wide Page 13 when the rst convicts were disgorged on pay bargaining that was to break the to that fatal shore to build their own pri- power of Australia’s unions; not to men- son. Not for nothing is Gallipoli, a cata- tion bank deregulation and the introduc- strophic failure redeemed by a heroic evac- tion of compulsory saving for pensions. uation, Australia’s most celebrated The Labor reforms have transformed military engagement, marked by a public Australia, making it a model of revival for holiday. The battler spirit has enabled Aus- the world. The Liberal Party too, then in tralians to survive and prosper in the driest opposition, deserves credit for supporting inhabited continent on earth, full of the them, because Labor lacked a majority in most poisonous snakes, the largest croco- the Senate. The result has been an econ- diles and the most terrifying sea-creatures. omy that is about to enter its 15th succes- John Howard, who last October was sive year of continuous growth. It also en- elected prime minister for the fourth time, joys low ination, the lowest unemploy- has made one of the most successful politi- ment for almost 30 years, negligible cal careers of modern times anywhere by government debt and regular budget sur- appealing to those ordinary battlers. pluses. Australia has shrugged o its main The battler spirit has its good points trading partners’ crisesAsia’s nancial and its bad. At its best, it has enabled Aus- meltdown of 1997-98, Japan’s decade of tralia to undertake wrenching reforms stagnation, America’s tech-stocks crash when they were most neededas in the with scarcely a backward glance. A list of sources can be found online 1980s, when the then treasurer (nance However, the qualities that have www.economist.com/surveys minister), Paul Keating, said Australia was served Australia so admirably when times on the way to becoming a banana repub- were tough are less useful in periods of An audio interview with the author is at lic. At the time, Mr Keating and his boss, prosperity. In 1901, when Australia be- www.economist.com/audio Bob Hawke, were able not just to imple- came an independent federation, it was, in1 2 A survey of Australia The Economist May 7th 2005 750 km Timor Sea Darwin Coral Sea G INDIAN r Katherine e a t PACIFIC B NORTHERN Port a rr OCEAN TERRITORY Douglas ie r OCEAN R 0.2 e ef 32,962 QUEENSLAND Port Dalrymple Bay wards, chief economist at HSBC in Sydney, Hedland AUSTRALIA 3.8 25,037 agrees. We didn’t believe our luck, he Uluru WESTERN (Ayers Rock) says. We have failed to invest suciently AUSTRALIA to sustain the upswing. SOUTH Brisbane AUSTRALIA 2.0 AUSTRALIA But now there is a chance for change. At 32,195 TOTAL: 1.5 NEW SOUTH WALES last October’s general election, Mr How- g 24,330 in 6.7 19.9 rl ard’s coalition gained control of the Sen- a 27,962 Great D 28,615 Perth Adelaide Dareton ate, though because of the oddities of Aus- Australian Bight Canberra Sydney Mildura tralia’s constitution the change does not M urr ay AUSTRALIAN CAPITAL take eect until July 1st. But on that date, for SOUTHERN OCEAN Melbourne TERRITORY the rst time since 1981, Australia’s prime VICTORIA 0.3 minister will command a majority in both Density of population, per sq km: 33,601 0.0 Population, 2003, m 4.9 TASMANIA houses of Parliament. The list of what below 1 5 - 10 above 30 ’000 28,905 Tasman GDP per person, 0.5 Hobart needs doing is a long one: more labour- 1 - 5 10 - 30 2004, $ 19,968 Sea market reform, more tax reform, more in- vestment in people and infrastructure, and 2 terms of income per person at purchasing- immigration to impressive levels. By pro- better relations between the federal power parity, the richest country on the viding sensible subsidies for private health government and Australia’s six states and planet, thanks to abundant minerals and insurance, he has brought down the cost of two territories, all Labor-controlled. innumerable sheep. But it became compla- the health service. None of it will be easy, but for Mr How- cent. By the 1950s it had dropped back to Besides, the lull in productivity-boost- ard it is a sweet opportunity. In the early 6th place, and by 1990 to 18ththough it ing reforms was not wholly his fault. 1980s, when he served as treasurer in the has since climbed back to 8th, thanks to Throughout his rst three terms, his co- government of Malcolm Fraser, he was two decades of reform. alition, made up of the Liberals and the convinced of the need for radical reform, But for most of Mr Howard’s nine years smaller National Party, was hampered by but could never persuade his boss to agree. in oce, productivity-boosting reform has its lack of a majority in the Senate, the up- In opposition for 13 long years, he had to been on the back burner. There has been per house of Parliament. This meant that watch as the bold Mr Keating won himself a degree of reform fatigue, says Michael much of what the government wanted to renown (if not aection) as the world’s Keating, a former head of the civil service doreform Australia’s archaic system of greatest treasurer. Now, nally, he has the who is now at the Australian National Uni- industrial relations, privatise Telstra, its te- mandate he has always lacked. versity in Canberra. There is not the same lecoms monopolist, change its media In 1998, Mr Howard devastated the sense of crisis that existed in the 1980s. lawswas blocked, abandoned or never hopes of his Labor opponent, Kim Beazley, In fairness, the toughest measures were even started. when he wondered aloud, on radio, already in place when he took oce, and whether he had the ticker for the job. He Mr Howard does have a few reforms of his Crunch time was calling into question Mr Beazley’s po- own to boast of. The biggest was probably The fact remains that a second wave of re- litical toughness, and perhaps even taking the granting of full independence to Aus- form is now urgently needed. The Austra- a dig at his less-than-trim appearance. Mr tralia’s central bank in 1996, and the bank lian economy is bumping up against sup- Howard duly won his second election. Mr has discharged its ination-controlling ply-side limits. In February, Ian Mac- Beazley resigned as leader after a third mission admirably and sometimes farlane, the governor of the central bank, Howard victory, in 2001, but four years on bravely. Mr Howard and his treasurer, Pe- said the country had to get used to growth he is back in charge of Labor. Mr Howard ter Costello, have run a tight ship, virtually rates beginning with a two or a three, has proved a good manager and a skilled eliminating national debt with a succes- rather than the three or four that has been political tactician but not yet a great re- sion of budget surpluses. But their most the norm for the past decade or so. He was former. The interesting question now is visible reform, the introduction of a 10% promptly proved insuciently pessimistic this: has Mr Howard got the ticker? 7 value-added tax, has not been a wholly when the gures for 2004 were published, happy experience. To get it approved, they showing that GDP growth in the last quar- had to oer too many exemptions. ter had slowed to 1.5% on a year earlier and How do they do it? 1 Still, Mr Howard has other things be- to a dismal 0.1% on the previous quarter.
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