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Investigating Dependencies Between Railway Systems and Other Infrastructure Systems: Using a Scenario- Based Case Study Approach

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Investigating Dependencies Between Railway Systems and Other Infrastructure Systems: Using a Scenario- Based Case Study Approach Investigating dependencies between railway systems and other infrastructure systems: using a scenario- based case study approach By Samane Faramehr A thesis submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy of University College London 2020 Department of Civil, Environmental and Geomatic Engineering University College London Gower Street, Bloomsbury London WC1E 6BT UCL Doctorate in Railway Systems Engineering Thesis declaration form I confirm that the work presented in this thesis is my own. Where information has been derived from other sources, I confirm that this has been indicated in the thesis. Signature: Name: Samane Faramehr 2 Abstract Infrastructure systems are developed in a highly interdependent and interconnected way at multiple levels. There is a need to consider infrastructure interdependencies for adaptation in the event of future challenges (e.g. climate change) as well as for proactive risk management strategies and other future decision makings. However, academic literature reveals a gap of knowledge about some dependencies that exist between technical infrastructure systems. Railways, as complex systems, have a large number of dependencies. In this thesis the interdependencies between the different railway sub-systems and other infrastructure systems have been studied. The existing literature in this subject has been thoroughly reviewed and it has been found that the dependencies at a sector level and a technical environment have not received enough attention and that there are many poorly understood dependencies. In this thesis two scenarios of dependencies related to railways have been investigated. The first scenario concerns the dependency that exists between electricity generation (power output) and freight railway traffic and was investigated using data related to sectors and time-series analysis. The second investigation was carried out to evaluate the dependency that exists between railways and urban water distribution systems in the event of track flooding caused by a water main burst. As a part of these analyses, a novel modelling and simulation technique has been developed. Hydraulic and numerical simulations have been used to quantify the dependencies which have been highlighted qualitatively by stakeholders and experts. Unlike in the previous research in this field, for which usually the availability of the simulation tool dictates the interdependency analysis, the model and simulation techniques used for this work have been developed based on the requirement of the dependency scenarios. It is concluded that, by adapting a participatory modelling approach, scenario-based case studies can provide valuable insight into poorly understood infrastructure dependencies. 3 Impact statement This thesis provides a comprehensive and critical review of the existing knowledge as well as of the commonly used methods and models in the field of infrastructure dependencies. The review can provide a useful basis for future academic references in the fields of security of critical infrastructure systems, reliability engineering and system safety, policy and decision making, etc. This research used a combination of stakeholder engagement, scenario analysis, case study and numerical simulation in a bottom-up approach to investigate poorly understood dependencies between technical infrastructures such as railways and water distribution networks. Therefore, this study presents a different application of a combination of well understood methods as the overall approach of the research. A similar approach can be adopted by academic and industrial researchers to study other dependencies across sectors for purposes such as proactive risk management and developing decision making tools (e.g. for future and long-term investments). The phases of defining the research question and data collection of this research included numerous meetings, interviews and workshops with a significant number of industrial stakeholders from rail, power, road, environment and supply chain sectors. The research provided a mechanism which facilitated communication as well as data and information sharing between practitioners of different technical sectors regarding cross-sectoral risks. A number of these communications resulted in the creation of new projects and activities among these sectors. Moreover, the ultimate benefit of this research is the creation of a tool that supports the improvement of the resilience of the railway systems to risks that may initiate outside the traditional boundaries of the railways. 4 Acknowledgements I would like to extend thanks to the many people who so generously contributed to the work presented in this thesis. First, I would like to express my special appreciation and thanks to Dr Taku Fujiyama; you have been a very supportive supervisor for me. I would like also to thank you for encouraging my research and for allowing me to grow as an independent researcher. Your advice on research as well as on my career has been invaluable. I would like to thank people at the following companies for their assistance with defining my research question and the collection of my data: Network Rail, Thames Water Utility Limited, Transport for London, London Underground, Drax Group plc, National Grid plc and Associated British Port (ABP) during the phases of case study and data collection for this thesis. I also wish to acknowledge the advice given by my second supervisor, Dr Robert Hutchison, on the scope of my research project. My deep appreciation goes to the technicians at the fluid dynamics lab at the University of Birmingham for helping me in the experimental work and to Dr Hassan Hemida for the valuable discussion on both the experimental and numerical model results. I gratefully acknowledge the funding received towards my PhD from University College London and Rail Safety and Standards Board (RSSB). Finally, I am indebted to my family and all true friends who encouraged me to follow my dreams and unconditionally supported me in numerous ways. I do not have enough words to express how these great people changed my life for better. 5 Table of contents Abstract ........................................................................................................................ 3 Impact statement .......................................................................................................... 4 Acknowledgements ...................................................................................................... 5 Chapter 1 Introduction .......................................................................................... 18 1.1 Background ................................................................................................. 18 1.2 Railway sector ............................................................................................. 35 1.3 Motivation for this research......................................................................... 46 1.4 Aim and objectives ...................................................................................... 49 1.5 Structure of the thesis .................................................................................. 50 Chapter 2 Overview of infrastructure dependency: a literature review ................ 51 2.1 The existing perspectives on infrastructure dependencies .......................... 51 2.2 Review of the approaches and models for investigating infrastructure dependency ............................................................................................................. 97 Chapter 3 The research design ............................................................................ 123 3.1 Reviewing the current academic knowledge and finding the gaps ........... 123 3.2 Stakeholder engagement and participatory-based approach/modelling .... 124 3.3 Scenario development and analysis and case study (qualitative dependency analysis) through relevant stakeholders ............................................................... 134 3.4 Modelling and simulation (quantitative dependency analysis) ................. 137 3.5 Summary of the current research design ................................................... 139 Chapter 4 Case study: Railway system and power generation system ............... 145 4.1 Background ............................................................................................... 145 4.2 Literature review ....................................................................................... 148 4.3 Method ....................................................................................................... 151 4.4 Focusing on a case study area ................................................................... 152 4.5 Framework for analysis ............................................................................. 166 6 4.6 Qualitative investigation of dependencies in the case study area.............. 170 4.7 Evaluation of an existing dependency: a quantitative analysis ................. 190 4.8 Summary and discussion ........................................................................... 250 4.9 Additional recommendations for further work .......................................... 267 Chapter 5 Evaluation of a dependency- related disruption: the scenario of track flooding caused by a water main burst in urban railways ........................................ 270 5.1 Background ............................................................................................... 270 5.2 Literature Review .....................................................................................
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