Slutlig Flygprognos
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FLYGTRAFIK TILL 2040 UNDERLAG TILL TRAFIKVERKETS FLYGPROGNOS 2040 Arne Karyd 2016-03-22 Underlagsrapport flygprognos 2040 slutlig Sweco Transportsystem AB INNEHÅLL 1 BAKGRUND ................................................................................................................................................ 1 2 PROGNOSMETODIK .................................................................................................................................... 2 2.1 TRANSPORTSTYRELSENS FEMÅRSPROGNOS ..................................................................................................................... 2 2.2 TRAFIKVERKETS TIDIGARE METOD ................................................................................................................................. 2 2.2.1 Inrikes ......................................................................................................................................................... 3 2.2.2 Utrikes ........................................................................................................................................................ 4 2.3 AVSTÄMNING MED UTFALL 2012-2015 OCH TS PROGNOSER ........................................................................................... 4 2.3.1 Inrikes ......................................................................................................................................................... 5 2.3.2 Utrikes ........................................................................................................................................................ 5 3 ÖVERVÄGANDEN INFÖR PROGNOSÅR 2040 ............................................................................................... 7 3.1 SWEDAVIAS PROGNOSMETOD ...................................................................................................................................... 7 3.2 BESLUTAD POLITIK MED PROGNOSRELEVANS ................................................................................................................... 8 3.2.1 Flygskatt ..................................................................................................................................................... 8 3.2.2 Bromma flygplats ....................................................................................................................................... 9 3.2.3 Upphandlad trafik ...................................................................................................................................... 9 3.2.4 Flygplatsernas samhällsroll, ekonomi och organisation ........................................................................... 10 3.3 PROGNOSRELEVANTA MÅLKONFLIKTER ........................................................................................................................ 12 3.4 INRIKESFLYGETS KONKURRENSSITUATION ..................................................................................................................... 12 3.5 STRATEGIER OCH VISIONER ........................................................................................................................................ 13 3.5.1 EU och regeringen .................................................................................................................................... 13 3.5.2 Transportstyrelsen och Svenskt Flyg ......................................................................................................... 14 3.6 FLYGET OCH MILJÖN ................................................................................................................................................ 15 3.7 FLYGPLATSER ......................................................................................................................................................... 16 3.8 TRAFIKANALYS PROGNOSGRANSKNING ........................................................................................................................ 18 3.9 RELATION TILL SWEDAVIAS PROGNOS .......................................................................................................................... 18 3.9.1 Inrikes ....................................................................................................................................................... 19 3.9.2 Utrikes ...................................................................................................................................................... 19 4 RESULTAT – NATIONELL PROGNOS ........................................................................................................... 20 4.1 INRIKES ................................................................................................................................................................. 20 4.2 UTRIKES ................................................................................................................................................................ 20 4.3 TOTALT PASSAGERARANTAL 2040 .............................................................................................................................. 21 5 KAPACITETSBEGRÄNSNINGAR OCH RÖRELSEPROGNOSER ....................................................................... 24 5.1 ARLANDA .............................................................................................................................................................. 24 5.2 BROMMA .............................................................................................................................................................. 25 5.3 BEHOVET AV RÖRELSEPROGNOSER .............................................................................................................................. 25 6 FLYGPLATSVISA BEDÖMNINGAR .............................................................................................................. 27 6.1 SWEDAVIA AB:S FLYGPLATSER ................................................................................................................................... 27 6.1.1 Stockholm/Bromma och Stockholm/Arlanda ........................................................................................... 27 6.1.2 Göteborg/Landvetter ................................................................................................................................ 28 6.1.3 Kiruna ....................................................................................................................................................... 29 6.1.4 Luleå ......................................................................................................................................................... 30 6.1.5 Malmö/Sturup .......................................................................................................................................... 30 6.1.6 Ronneby .................................................................................................................................................... 31 6.1.7 Umeå ........................................................................................................................................................ 32 6.1.8 Visby ......................................................................................................................................................... 32 6.1.9 Åre-Östersund ........................................................................................................................................... 34 6.2 UPPHANDLINGSFLYGPLATSER ..................................................................................................................................... 34 6.2.1 Arvidsjaur ................................................................................................................................................. 34 6.2.2 Gällivare ................................................................................................................................................... 35 6.2.3 Hemavan-Tärnaby .................................................................................................................................... 35 6.2.4 Lycksele ..................................................................................................................................................... 36 6.2.5 Pajala ........................................................................................................................................................ 36 6.2.6 Torsby och Hagfors ................................................................................................................................... 37 i Underlagsrapport flygprognos 2040 slutlig Sweco Transportsystem AB 6.2.7 Sveg och Mora .......................................................................................................................................... 38 6.2.8 Vilhelmina ................................................................................................................................................. 39 6.3 UTRIKESFLYGPLATSER ............................................................................................................................................... 40 6.3.1 Linköping .................................................................................................................................................. 40 6.3.2 Norrköping ...............................................................................................................................................