A POLITICAL YEAR IN THE WEST

Daniel Béland

From a political standpoint, 2011 was a most exciting year in the four western provinces. Two of them, Alberta and British Columbia, now have a woman as premier. As for Manitoba and Saskatchewan, they each witnessed an election in the fall. In both jurisdictions, the ruling party was returned to power. As elsewhere in the country, in these two provinces voters ended up embracing political stability over change in a climate of global economic uncertainty. Yet beyond this broader economic context, each province faces distinct political and policy challenges that point to the diversity of a region of the country that is anything but a homogeneous block, especially in its politics.

D’un point de vue politique, 2011 a été une année des plus intéressantes pour les quatre provinces de l’Ouest. Deux provinces, l’Alberta et la Colombie- Britannique, ont maintenant une femme à leur tête ; quant au Manitoba et à la Saskatchewan, elles ont tenu une élection cet automne. Dans ces deux provinces, le parti qui gouvernait a été reporté au pouvoir. Comme ailleurs au pays, les électeurs ont préféré la stabilité politique au changement dans un climat d’incertitude économique mondiale. Cependant, au-delà de ce contexte économique global, chaque province doit relever des défis politiques distincts, car cette région du pays est tout sauf un bloc homogène, surtout en ce qui concerne la politique provinciale.

he four western provinces are typically viewed as a its political identity. Compared to Alberta and even BC, demographically and economically dynamic region Manitoba has not developed a resource-based economy T that is a growing source of fascination in Central largely because it is not as well endowed as the other west- and Eastern Canada. Yet the West is anything but a homo- ern provinces, especially where nonrenewable resources geneous region, and major economic and political differ- are concerned. Yet this apparent disadvantage has become ences exist among its four provinces. For instance, one of its strengths, because it has forced the province to regarding energy resources, Alberta and Saskatchewan are diversify its economic base, which is a key ingredient of rich in oil and natural gas, while BC and Manitoba have the Manitoba success story that became obvious to out- hydro power, which the former two are by and large lack- side observers in the context of the post-2008 recession. ing. With regard to political life, BC remains centred on The celebrated return of the Jets to Winnipeg adds to this strong partisan and ideological divides while Alberta has success story while further increasing the profile of been governed by the Progressive Conservatives since Manitoba among Canadian provinces. Politically, eco- 1971. As for Manitoba and Saskatchewan, economic pros- nomic prosperity has not been accompanied by strong perity helped their respective ruling parties (the NDP in regional grievances such as those still emanating from Manitoba and the Saskatchewan Party in Saskatchewan) Alberta. The fact that Manitoba is the only western win another mandate at the polls earlier this fall. In BC province that currently receives equalization payments and Alberta, there was no general election this year but, may help explain this situation. interestingly, both provinces now have a new premier, in These remarks should not mean that everything is both cases a younger woman who is attempting to reshape great in Manitoba. In Winnipeg, where most Manitobans the ruling party. This was a most eventful year in a region live, violent crime has become an obsession in a place of the country that is much less homogeneous than a where the comparison with US-style “inner cities” seems superficial look could suggest. more and more appropriate. Behind the reality of crime in Manitoba’s status as a “western province” is ambigu- Winnipeg lies a problem that is even deeper and harder to ous, as this older, economically diverse jurisdiction is typ- tackle: Aboriginal poverty. Proportionally, Manitoba has ically closer to central Canada, both geographically and in the largest share of Aboriginal population in Canada

38 OPTIONS POLITIQUES DÉCEMBRE 2011-JANVIER 2012 A political year in the West

(more than 15 percent of the overall balanced budget, it is now the envy of fall had the Wall government strug- population and rapidly growing). In other, less prosperous and fiscally dis- gling to avoid the advent of durable, this context, fighting poverty and advantaged provinces. While the rul- long-term budget deficits. Related to increasing educational and employ- ing NDP had to overcome a bold overly optimistic assumptions about ment opportunity among First electoral challenge in Manitoba’s fall potash revenues, this 2009 episode Nations are some of the most crucial election, in Saskatchewan, Brad Wall’s was a cautionary tale for the Wall gov- tasks facing Manitoba. This is a chal- party was so far ahead in the polls ernment, which learned the hard way lenge that Greg Selinger and the before the beginning of the provincial about the potential fiscal instability provincial NDP must tackle in the campaign that the basic outcome of stemming from the overreliance on aftermath of their historic re-election the November 7 election — the bold resource revenues in a volatile global environment. Now in The celebrated return of the Jets to Winnipeg adds to this power for a second man- success story while further increasing the profile of Manitoba date with an overwhelming among Canadian provinces. Politically, economic prosperity majority of the seats at hand, the Wall government has not been accompanied by strong regional grievances is unlikely to repeat the such as those still emanating from Alberta. The fact that same mistake. Manitoba is the only western province that currently receives equalization payments may help explain this situation. ne of the greatest poli- O cy challenges in earlier this fall, which was facilitated victory of the ruling Saskatchewan Saskatchewan is to invest in the future by the positive economic climate Party, which received 64 percent of of the province and, more specifically, and, to a lesser extent, the return of the popular votes and won 49 of the in the diversification of an economy the Jets to Winnipeg. In the years 58 seats in the legislature — did not that is heavily dependent on natural ahead, his government may want to come as a surprise (on this issue, see resources where prices fluctuate some- address Aboriginal issues systemati- my article in the November issue of times dramatically from year to year or cally, working hand in hand with Policy Options). This is probably why, even month to month. Here, First Nations and the federal govern- during the 2011 campaign, the Saskatchewan may not want to imitate ment. Beyond this issue, the new Saskatchewan Party limited the num- the short-term approach of its power- NDP government should keep invest- ber of costly electoral pledges, in ful Albertan neighbour, which is stuck ing in infrastructure and education sharp contrast with the desperate in a “boom-and-bust” logic and a com- while balancing the provincial budg- provincial NDP headed by the less- bination of low taxes and acute spend- et by 2014, as Premier Selinger prom- than-popular Dwain Lingenfelter. The ing sprees that have resulted in large ised during the fall campaign. Considering the In Saskatchewan, as in Alberta, the temptation is great to current favourable eco- overspend in the context of the “resource boom.” In fact, nomic situation, it would during its first mandate, the Wall government increased be appropriate to balance the budget and invest in government spending while cutting taxes, a situation that the long-term future of created a major fiscal challenge when potash revenues fell Manitoba instead of dramatically in 2009. The shock of this unanticipated shortfall embracing a bold tax-cut had the Wall government struggling to avoid the advent of agenda. Although Win- nipeg deserves much durable, long-term budget deficits. attention due to the urban and social problems discussed above, the NDP truth is that, in Saskatchewan as in budget deficits in recent years. Instead, should not forget rural dwellers, who Alberta, the temptation is great to looking at Manitoba is a better idea, as remain a constituency facing chal- overspend in the context of the over time, this province did find a way lenges such as flood prevention — “resource boom.” In fact, during its to diversify its economy. Looking the other provincial obsession with first mandate, the Wall government abroad to Alaska or Norway for a hockey and urban crime. increased government spending while model in long-term fiscal planning The Saskatchewan economy is cutting taxes, a situation that created would also be well advised, something stronger than Manitoba’s. Featuring a major fiscal challenge when potash the Saskatchewan NDP suggested dur- the lowest unemployment rate in revenues fell dramatically in 2009. ing the 2011 provincial campaign. Canada (less than 5 percent) and a The shock of this unanticipated short- Clearly, the limited “contingency

POLICY OPTIONS 39 DECEMBER 2011-JANUARY 2012 Daniel Béland

fund” currently in place is too modest is centred on the energy sector (espe- The recent election of Alison to generate the type of savings and cially oil), a situation that makes its Redford as the leader of the Alberta PC long-term investments that are needed economy even more vulnerable to is yet another challenge to this tradi- to build a sustainable, more diverse boom-and-bust cycles. Fortunately for tional image of Alberta-the-True- economy. Moreover, just as in Albertans, oil prices bounced back Conservative-Bastion, which the Manitoba, the Saskatchewan govern- after reaching a low in late 2008 and opposition Wildrose Party seeks to ment needs to do more to help fight early 2009, a situation that helped renew through its right-wing and Aboriginal poverty and job train First restore economic prosperity in the regionalist platform. Here, the contrast Nations youth, who currently repre- province. In September 2011, the between Wildrose leader Danielle sent more than a quarter of the popu- unemployment rate in Alberta fell to Smith and Premier Redford is striking. lation aged 15 and younger in 5.4 percent, compared to 6.2 percent Compared to Smith’s staunch conser- Saskatchewan. just a year earlier. This is good news vatism, Redford appears as the reddest Finally, energy policy and the for a province that faced a significant of the “Red Tories.” Yet it would be environment are two related chal- downturn after the 2008 financial cri- wrong to think that the new premier is lenges the second Wall govern- disconnected from popular ment should take extremely The contrast between Wildrose sentiments. In reality, Alberta is seriously. Because the idea of leader Danielle Smith and Premier a rapidly changing, urbanized building a nuclear power plant Redford is striking. Compared to and dynamic province where in the province is overly con- the old conservative ideas that troversial and probably unnec- Smith’s staunch conservatism, remain dominant in rural areas essary despite growing Redford appears as the reddest of have long been challenged in demands for electricity, the the “Red Tories.” Yet it would be places like Calgary and recent focus on “carbon cap- wrong to think that the new Edmonton, two multicultural ture” is equally ill-advised. As a cities where many inhabitants growing number of experts premier is disconnected from come from outside the believe, buying clean, renew- popular sentiments. In reality, province and the country in able hydro power from Alberta is a rapidly changing, search of prosperity and Manitoba is the best solution to urbanized and dynamic province employment opportunities the growing electricity needs in rather than an ideological and booming Saskatchewan. where the old conservative ideas regionalist creed. With all these Although pressures are strong that remain dominant in rural areas newcomers moving into this on the Wall government to have long been challenged in places “land of opportunity,” public exploit the low-quality coal like Calgary and Edmonton, two sentiments are much more found in the province, long- diverse than the cartoonish term environmental sustain- multicultural cities where many image of Alberta popular in ability should triumph over the inhabitants come from outside the central and eastern Canada short-term interests of the min- province and the country in search suggests. Core conservative ing industry. Buying hydro of prosperity and employment principles such as lower taxes power from Manitoba and cre- remain fundamental in Alberta; ating the infrastructure needed opportunities rather than an however, access to good public to transport it across provincial ideological and regionalist creed. health and education services is borders does not only make also a priority for most sense from a financial standpoint; it sis and the fall in oil prices it trig- Albertans, something that Premier would improve the environmental gered. The deterioration of the Redford seems to understand well. The record of an increasingly polluting economic situation and the decline in Alberta PC Party has been in power province that needs to improve its resource revenues had a negative since 1971, and one of the factors “green image.” impact on the provincial budget, behind this stunning political success which remains in the deficit zone — is not only economic growth but its nother province that suffers from along with the depletion of Alberta’s capacity to reinvent itself as the A a major image problem in the ill-baptized “Sustainability Fund,” province changes. For instance, many environmental realm is Alberta. Like and where fiscal conservatism has of the newcomers (Canadians as well Saskatchewan, it depends extensively been replaced by big spending, cou- as new immigrants) who move to on nonrenewable resources. As pled with the enduring obsession for Alberta are not necessarily obsessed opposed to aluminium and potash- low taxes, including the absence of a with “western alienation” and “family rich Saskatchewan, however, Alberta provincial sales tax. values.” Like most Canadians, they

40 OPTIONS POLITIQUES DÉCEMBRE 2011-JANVIER 2012 A political year in the West want to have access to good public end, although the HST was generally a Beyond the paradoxical position services, and they are willing to pay for sound policy, it was killed through a ref- of the NDP vis-à-vis the HST, the them as long as they feel their money erendum held in early August. recent debate over this tax issue illus- is not being wasted. If Premier Redford Importantly, the crass populism ever- trates the highly contentious nature of can deliver on that front while restor- present in the campaign against the the BC political culture, which can ing fiscal balance in Alberta, it is possi- HST raises the fear of a broader “tax trigger over-the-top electoral dramas ble that her party could stay in power revolt” in Canada. In BC as elsewhere, that could push the province in the for many more years. At this point, the citizens must learn about the need for wrong direction, as far as the future of only clear thing is that defending the effective tax policies, as long as they are public policy is concerned. More than legitimate economic interests of matched with a shared conception of the other western provinces, BC has to Albertans is compatible with real justice. The HST episode in BC is a strik- fight against its own political evils to measures to improve the environmen- ing episode of tax populism that policy create a civil political environment where real policy debates In the end, a better environmental record, especially where can take place beyond pure the oil sands are concerned, corresponds with the long-term partisan rhetoric, at least interests of Albertans, who do not want to see markets close between elections. The HST because of the short-term view of oil companies and debate suggests that efforts are needed for BC to government officials. achieve this goal. The West is hardly homogeneous, tal performance — and as a conse- experts and politicians around the and each province faces different polit- quence the image — of this booming country should study in order to avoid ical and policy challenges in a rapidly “land of opportunity.” In the end, a political disasters like this one, which changing environment that frequently better environmental record, especial- compelled the previously successful defies the traditional images of these ly where the oil sands are concerned, Gordon Campbell to leave office. provinces and, sometimes, of the par- corresponds with the long-term inter- Now that the HST debate is over, ties that govern them. Today, at the ests of Albertans, who do not want to BC policy-makers must refocus on key federal level, the West has more politi- see markets close because of the short- policy issues like health care reform, cal clout than ever before but, as far as term view of oil companies and gov- public transportation, housing afford- provincial politics goes, it is a diverse ernment officials. The Alberta PC Party has been in power since 1971, and one ritish Columbia is a B growing province that of the factors behind this stunning political success is not only attracts people from all over economic growth but its capacity to reinvent itself as the the world, as well as workers province changes. For instance, many of the newcomers and families from other (Canadians as well as new immigrants) who move to Alberta provinces, who often find the province’s beautiful nat- are not necessarily obsessed with “western alienation” and ural surrounding and laid- “family values.” back atmosphere appealing. Politically, however, life in the province ability and economic development in world that is more heterogeneous than was everything but laid-back in 2011. northern BC. Dealing with these issues what many people out east typically As in Alberta, although no provincial will not be cheap, and the province believe. Each Canadian province is election took place, BC has a new pre- will have to find a way to generate new unique. This is as true in the West as it mier, who is also a younger and dynam- revenues without alienating citizens, is in the other regions of the country. ic woman. Like Alison Redford in something difficult in the aftermath of Alberta, Christy Clark faces many great the HST episode. Ironically, the NDP, Daniel Béland is Canada Research Chair challenges, partly because her party’s which participated in the “tax revolt” in Public Policy at the Johnson-Shoyama brand had been damaged in recent against the HST, could soon become a Graduate School of Public Policy. He has years. The main political challenge for victim of this logic, if they win the published eight books and 60 peer- the BC Liberals over the past two years next provincial election. The cam- reviewed articles on issues ranging from has been the enduring controversy over paign against the HST makes this elec- health care and pension reform to fiscal the unpopular Harmonized Sales Tax toral scenario more likely than before, federalism and the role of ideas in policy- (HST), which triggered a misguided and as it considerably weakened the ruling making. For more information visit populist US-style “tax revolt.” In the Liberals. www.danielbeland.org

POLICY OPTIONS 41 DECEMBER 2011-JANUARY 2012